Trades 2024 Fantasy Round 6 Trades

[Corkintheocean]

I'm actually looking at Brad Hill this week. Insane crazy risky pick, but as a forward he has to be considered.

112 ave in his last 3. Gone back to back 10+ mark games and if you watched the GWS game on the weekend it was incredible seeing St Kilda players go out of their way to kick it to him. They obviously want the ball in his hands.

With how dire the forward line is I am seriously considering taking a punt at him. Only 20 breakeven so if he does anything above 90 he will be very close to 800k next week and be pretty much unpickable because of how risky he is. I think this is the only week you can really jump on.

It's a great shout I think. And very tempted myself. Have been watching a fair bit of St Kilda due to starting RoMa, NWM and Bonner and every week have been noticing how prevalent Hill has been in their ball movement. Might be points chasing a bit however.

 

[DenieD]

It's a great shout I think. And very tempted myself. Have been watching a fair bit of St Kilda due to starting RoMa, NWM and Bonner and every week have been noticing how prevalent Hill has been in their ball movement. Might be points chasing a bit however.

Still weighing up between going to Hill or just doing a double downgrade.

But I do like the look of my forward line with only one rookie on field (Dempsey).

 

[Corkintheocean]

Could mean Zorko shunted out of half back

They've just rolled Melbourne at the G with Zorko playing that heavy usage defending role. No chance they revert away from it now. They have enough goals up forward to cover the Bailey loss.

 

[Mezzoculo]

I enjoy weekly Newk melts because I nearly started him. Please don't deprive me of this.

I'll trade him to Bont, then.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Still weighing up between going to Hill or just doing a double downgrade.

But I do like the look of my forward line with only one rookie on field (Dempsey).

Would be same for me and I'm trying to get there this week. I'm tossing up between Rankine, Caldwell, Hill.

 

[4tune8]

i can't work out the damage it'll cause for our teams holding him, in theory we're playing a premo down as if he was on his bye like any Mel/Rich player, yet we didn't plan for this. so we're relying on another rook this week. is holding him going to help us come best 22 or are we just shooting ourselves in the foot?

Think I will be holding Crouch also.

What do I grain from trading a 102 avg player for a 105-115 avg player? Barely anything and that's half my trades.

Fisher and McKercher will be going out. Walsh or Zorko in

So let's say Fisher goes a 70ish and player I bring in goes 100. +30 point potential for my team instead of + 5-15

That's why I've bumped him up to Dunks. Brisbane's top scorer and is a +6 machine.

I've got my bench in a position where I can do one up one down for the next few weeks.

I don't like trading players out missing just the one week as it delays an upgrade or a rookie grab by a week, it's bad enough copping an LTI where you have no choice.

I'm bringing in Rankine this week who get's a rookie off the ground and should be a 50 point gain, of course I'll have to wear the 50 point loss from having a rookie cover Crouch this week. Pretty much did the same with Wines when he missed, if I traded both of them out then I'd be 2 weeks behind in getting the team to a position where I can do luxury upgrades. Those luxury upgrades could be done now but it's not the way for me.

 

[Calebs Shlong]

They've just rolled Melbourne at the G with Zorko playing that heavy usage defending role. No chance they revert away from it now. They have enough goals up forward to cover the Bailey loss.

Cameron is free to play now, and they’ll just have Rayner play a bit more forward to cover for Bailey.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Cameron is free to play now, and they’ll just have Rayner play a bit more forward to cover for Bailey.

Agreed

 

[Zevon]

Looks a lot like I imagine Zevon to look

Yep the resemblance is uncanny. As you can imagine I’m quite a hit with the ladies

 

[Exambolor]

I don't like trading players out missing just the one week as it delays an upgrade or a rookie grab by a week, it's bad enough copping an LTI where you have no choice.

I'm bringing in Rankine this week who get's a rookie off the ground and should be a 50 point gain, of course I'll have to wear the 50 point loss from having a rookie cover Crouch this week. Pretty much did the same with Wines when he missed, if I traded both of them out then I'd be 2 weeks behind in getting the team to a position where I can do luxury upgrades. Those luxury upgrades could be done now but it's not the way for me.

Good points. Its a really hard call though

If I did decide to hold I can up someone in the FWDs and potentially go one rookie in the FWDs.

 

[MP_]

Yep the resemblance is uncanny. As you can imagine I’m quite a hit with the ladies

The blind ones ??

 

[Zevon]

The blind ones ??

I deliberately left it vague

 

[Exambolor]

Tell you what Lohmann is now a much more relevant option with Bailey missing for the next month and a half

 

[staffa002]

Tell you what Lohmann is now a much more relevant option with Bailey missing for the next month and a half

Probably but man he aint even in the top 3 cash cows right now and it isnt even close. It would be graham,nyuon,garcia then dury in that order. There arent enough trades to even look at lohman. He will be 400k+ by the time these guys are in your team and at that point he is a no.

 

[Shaunn]

Probably but man he aint even in the top 3 cash cows right now and it isnt even close. It would be graham,nyuon,garcia then dury in that order. There arent enough trades to even look at lohman. He will be 400k+ by the time these guys are in your team and at that point he is a no.

If you have the cash could go him this week then one of the other 3 next week, only if you have Graham already ofcourse.

BE of 0 and if hes playing full games he looks to be a 50-70 guy.

 

[Corkintheocean]

If you have the cash could go him this week then one of the other 3 next week, only if you have Graham already ofcourse.

BE of 0 and if hes playing full games he looks to be a 50-70 guy.

He did look really good in the pre-season match rolling up the field in which I imagine is basically the Bailey role.

 

[Shaunn]

He did look really good in the pre-season match rolling up the field in which I imagine is basically the Bailey role.

Yeah obviously only if you have the cash for it, think he goes up more than Garcia this week (i think?) so go him first then Garcia/Biggie the week after.

 

[Shaunn]

Could be a mistake but i think im keeping Crouch this week and go,

Mckercher > Walsh and downgrade Gallagher or Campbell to Lohmann/Garcia then get the other one next week, think i trade Gallagher because i can loop with Campbell.

Is abit risky keeping Crouch but if he doesn't play next week ill just trade him.

This way ill have 4 rookies only onfield next week once Gawn/Crouch come back.

 

[Lukebatty97]

Toss up between nyouen, Drury and Garcia
Dawson 2-3 weeks and takes nyouens spot. Zuurhar takes Drury's
Seems Garcia has the best JS, but hes still gettable next week

 

[BennyFC]

Could be a mistake but i think im keeping Crouch this week and go,

Mckercher > Walsh and downgrade Gallagher or Campbell to Lohmann/Garcia then get the other one next week, think i trade Gallagher because i can loop with Campbell.

Is abit risky keeping Crouch but if he doesn't play next week ill just trade him.

This way ill have 4 rookies only onfield next week once Gawn/Crouch come back.

I've done my best to run the numbers on this. Let's assume the following:

• After this week's suspension, Crouch averages 90 (pessimistic assumption IMO)
• Whoever you trade in for Crouch averages 110 (ultra premo)
• If you keep Crouch this week, you are using your trades to upgrade a rookie to a premo and are 1 rookie upgrade ahead of the simulation where you trade Crouch. For the purpose of this simulation rookies average 60, premiums average 100
• Crouch traders have 6 upgrades left after this week, Crouch holders have 5

With these assumptions, Crouch traders will gain approx 50 this week (highest dropoff score in a best 18 week is around 60). However over the next 6 weeks (after which Crouch traders will no longer be one premo behind), Crouch holders will gain 20 points per week over Crouch traders (40 from an extra premo on field - 20 from an ultra premo over Crouch). In total, Crouch holders will be 70 points better off.

Obviously this is only true if you think Crouch holds his spot and averages 90. There are also a bunch of other complexities related to what Crouch traders are doing with their second trade, gaining more funds will mean better premos over the next 6 weeks etc etc.

BUT I think that it is almost certainly true that if Crouch holds his spot until mid-season byes, coaches are mathematically far better off holding him than trading him, particularly as the impact of Crouch missing a week is mitigated through the Best 18 week. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

 

[Shaunn]

Could be a mistake but i think im keeping Crouch this week and go,

Mckercher > Walsh and downgrade Gallagher or Campbell to Lohmann/Garcia then get the other one next week, think i trade Gallagher because i can loop with Campbell.

Is abit risky keeping Crouch but if he doesn't play next week ill just trade him.

This way ill have 4 rookies only onfield next week once Gawn/Crouch come back.

Just realised though Collingwood play Wednesday next week so if i say go Daicos next week and Crouch doesn't come back in then you're kinda ****ed as we don't find out teams till after that game.

 

[Shaunn]

I've done my best to run the numbers on this. Let's assume the following:

• After this week's suspension, Crouch averages 90 (pessimistic assumption IMO)
• Whoever you trade in for Crouch averages 110 (ultra premo)
• If you keep Crouch this week, you are using your trades to upgrade a rookie to a premo and are 1 rookie upgrade ahead of the simulation where you trade Crouch. For the purpose of this simulation rookies average 60, premiums average 100
• Crouch traders have 6 upgrades left after this week, Crouch holders have 5

With these assumptions, Crouch traders will gain approx 50 this week (highest dropoff score in a best 18 week is around 60). However over the next 6 weeks (after which Crouch traders will no longer be one premo behind), Crouch holders will gain 20 points per week over Crouch traders (40 from an extra premo on field - 20 from an ultra premo over Crouch). In total, Crouch holders will be 70 points better off.

Obviously this is only true if you think Crouch holds his spot and averages 90. There are also a bunch of other complexities related to what Crouch traders are doing with their second trade, gaining more funds will mean better premos over the next 6 weeks etc etc.

BUT I think that it is almost certainly true that if Crouch holds his spot until mid-season byes, coaches are mathematically far better off holding him than trading him, particularly as the impact of Crouch missing a week is mitigated through the Best 18 week. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

Yep makes alot of sense. It's basically just if he does last that long , and if you're planning to go Daicos next week like me.
He plays on the Wednesday so if you make that trade we don't find out if Crouch comes in or not till Thursday which will royally screw you over if he doesn't.

 

[BennyFC]

Yep makes alot of sense. It's basically just if he does last that long , and if you're planning to go Daicos next week like me.
He plays on the Wednesday so if you make that trade we don't find out if Crouch comes in or not till Thursday which will royally screw you over if he doesn't.

I think it depends a lot on how Adelaide's midfield go this week without Crouch, but a lot of Adelaide fans (on their forum) seem to see Crouch as one of their top 5 performers so far this year. I believe that he has also recently signed a new 2 year deal? Personally I think that the risk of him not coming straight back in is very low, but I could be biased because I own him

 

[Shaunn]

I think it depends a lot on how Adelaide's midfield go this week without Crouch, but a lot of Adelaide fans (on their forum) seem to see Crouch as one of their top 5 performers so far this year. I believe that he has also recently signed a new 2 year deal? Personally I think that the risk of him not coming straight back in is very low, but I could be biased because I own him

Yeah ive watched all of there games this year and ive thought hes been one of the better mids also (fantasy bias aside ).

 

[happy_eagle]

Crouch needed to be upgraded at some point, so might as well make it this week.