Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

Last top 10 thoughts before Tuesday. Will post my actual bets later if anyone is interested but...


1. BUCKAROO - Just has to go on top for me after that Caulfield Cup run. Whether there are doubts on the trip or not the eye test from that race said back me in a MC. Brings through the super strong WFA form which historically is very good and just has panels on what these others are coming through. Draws the carpark but really not that concerned when they have an age to find a position and he can slot in anywhere in the run and be fine.

2. ABSURDE - Brings across much stronger form than the Euros who have already been out here and dominated and price has barely budged the whole way through. Travelled and ran well enough last year in a stronger race and meeting the stablemate a kilo better off a good advantage.

3. VAUBAN - Another Euro who brings out much better form than the ones we have already seen out here. Failing last year as favourite isn't ideal but basically the same horse and getting a bigger price this year in a weaker field. I do have concerns on a firm track but his best is better than most we have seen.

4. SEA KING - Fantastic win in the Bendigo Cup making a run from a long way out and just going clear up the straight. Little between him and Onesmoothoperator but have to give him the slight edge coming through the Ebor together where he held an SP profile advantage and have seen nothing in their runs out here to move the needle on either of them.

5. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - Great win in the Geelong Cup showing a decent turn of speed off a slowly run race. Should suit these conditions but have yo have him just behind Sea King.

6. SAINT GEORGE - Entire prep looked absolutely cooked coming up to the bend in the MV Gold Cup but really got warmed up late for a nice Cup trial. One time favourite and on his European form last year would be likely winning so you at least know he has a level in him that could win if 3200m at Flemington wakes him up.

7. OKITA SOUSHI - Finally found form in this country and running well. Was going like complete dog shit into the race last year and still ran pretty well so should go much better this year. Will be really strong at the end of 2 miles as well.

8. WARP SPEED - Went like shit at Caulfield but to be fair that's exactly what most were expecting once the track was soft. Flemington and a firm track are what he needs and at his best could easily be running into F4s here and we are getting a price now to find out for exotics.

9. MOSTLY CLOUDY - Looking for the Sheraz style blow out chances now for rough F4s because I don't think there is much between what we have here in the staying ranks and the ones at triple figures are only marginally behind those much shorter. He is a real tough 2 miler who will run the trip right and SPd $4.80 against Point King a couple runs ago who was like 4th or 5th pick in the betting before coming out.

10. FANCY MAN - Another real bolter to include for F4s. Was 3WNC in the Naturalism and ran well, ran a decent 3rd in the Herbert Power just behind Okita Soushi and then 6th in the Caulfield Cup was probably better than everything outside the first 3 home.

 

[Jugada]

Going through the noms and filtering out all the ones that have none and having a look at what's left

Absurde - Not quite going as well as last year but can run top 10 again
Adelaide River - Going shit. Gelded since but that seems desperate
Arrest - Has turned into a bog average horse
Birdman - Dreadful last start
Changingoftheguard - Fair first up. Need to see over 2400m+
Circle Of Fire - Decent stayer but unders and likely to get a bit too much weight
Coco Sun - SA form not typically good enough
Delius - Really good French 3yo. Too good to come out though especially being a Coolmore horse
Eliyass - Sydney Metrop horse with class and distance being big doubts for me
Fawkner Park - Q22 win a big outlier on performance so would want to see him back that up
Future History - Didn't think he was good enough last year so wont be with him this year
Grosvenor Square - Seems unlikely to come
Harbour Wind - Seems unlikely to come
Hipop De Loire - Would have it above all the other Ebor runners
Illinois - Too good to come
Jan Brueghel - Surely too good to come as well
Kinesiology - Second tier 3yo. First across the line in the Vinnie Roe beating Birdman by 10L+
Land Legend - Decent chance has been Waller'd
Magical Zoe - Probably my second choice of the Ebor runners so hard to get too enthused
Middle Earth - Dreadful last start. Been gelded seems a bit desperate again
Place Du Carrousel - One of my top picks for the Caulfield Cup so has to be up there somewhat in the rankings
Point King - MV Cup horse
Point Lonsdale - Going shit and failed the vets last year
Poptronic - Another one that looks a Metrop horse if it comes back well
Que Tempesta - Good return in the Heatherlie. Italian form is generally rubbish but its here and running well at least
Relentless Voyager - Third pick of the Ebor runners so not keen at the moment
Riff Rocket - Seems incredibly unlikely to be on a Cup prep
Royal Supremecy - Similar second rate 3yo to The Euphrates and Kinesiology
Saint George - Great Euro form. Great return. One of the top seeds
Sayedaty Sadaty - Not a bad 3yo taking on the better Euro 3yos but run in the Gordon Stakes didnt look like a 2 mile horse.
Sea King - 4th pick of the Ebor runners and thus has little to no chance for me
The Equator - Least impressive of the 3yos in the mix
The Euphrates - Crossed the line with Kinesiology a couple back so similar level. They're about a Valiant King level of 3yo
Vauban - Terrible odds for a horse who we have a decent idea of his level out here.
Warp Speed - Second rate Japanese stayer who is very similar levels to a horse like Breakup last year
Without a Fight - Couldn't possibly entertain off the prep
Zardozi - Dont think it will even end up here but 4yo mares returning not a type that interests me

PRE WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE ($20)
2. PLACE DU CARROUSEL ($70)
3. WARP SPEED ($36)
4. CIRCLE OF FIRE ($17)
5. MIDDLE EARTH ($24)
6. ROYAL SUPREMECY ($140)
7. SAYEDATY SEDATY ($51)
8. ABSURDE ($26)
9. HIPOP DE LOIRE ($101)
10. QUE TEMPESTA ($75)

Any news that DELIUS ($110), JAN BRUGHEL ($51) or ILLINOIS ($38) are coming and they will slot in towards the top but seems less likely than likely.

 

[TBellicious]

A lot of water to go under the bridge but suspect the winning rating this year will be levels below the last three. Brings a lot more horses into it.

 

[FFB1]

Going through the noms and filtering out all the ones that have none and having a look at what's left

Absurde - Not quite going as well as last year but can run top 10 again
Adelaide River - Going shit. Gelded since but that seems desperate
Arrest - Has turned into a bog average horse
Birdman - Dreadful last start
Changingoftheguard - Fair first up. Need to see over 2400m+
Circle Of Fire - Decent stayer but unders and likely to get a bit too much weight
Coco Sun - SA form not typically good enough
Delius - Really good French 3yo. Too good to come out though especially being a Coolmore horse
Eliyass - Sydney Metrop horse with class and distance being big doubts for me
Fawkner Park - Q22 win a big outlier on performance so would want to see him back that up
Future History - Didn't think he was good enough last year so wont be with him this year
Grosvenor Square - Seems unlikely to come
Harbour Wind - Seems unlikely to come
Hipop De Loire - Would have it above all the other Ebor runners
Illinois - Too good to come
Jan Brueghel - Surely too good to come as well
Kinesiology - Second tier 3yo. First across the line in the Vinnie Roe beating Birdman by 10L+
Land Legend - Decent chance has been Waller'd
Magical Zoe - Probably my second choice of the Ebor runners so hard to get too enthused
Middle Earth - Dreadful last start. Been gelded seems a bit desperate again
Place Du Carrousel - One of my top picks for the Caulfield Cup so has to be up there somewhat in the rankings
Point King - MV Cup horse
Point Lonsdale - Going shit and failed the vets last year
Poptronic - Another one that looks a Metrop horse if it comes back well
Que Tempesta - Good return in the Heatherlie. Italian form is generally rubbish but its here and running well at least
Relentless Voyager - Third pick of the Ebor runners so not keen at the moment
Riff Rocket - Seems incredibly unlikely to be on a Cup prep
Royal Supremecy - Similar second rate 3yo to The Euphrates and Kinesiology
Saint George - Great Euro form. Great return. One of the top seeds
Sayedaty Sadaty - Not a bad 3yo taking on the better Euro 3yos but run in the Gordon Stakes didnt look like a 2 mile horse.
Sea King - 4th pick of the Ebor runners and thus has little to no chance for me
The Equator - Least impressive of the 3yos in the mix
The Euphrates - Crossed the line with Kinesiology a couple back so similar level. They're about a Valiant King level of 3yo
Vauban - Terrible odds for a horse who we have a decent idea of his level out here.
Warp Speed - Second rate Japanese stayer who is very similar levels to a horse like Breakup last year
Without a Fight - Couldn't possibly entertain off the prep
Zardozi - Dont think it will even end up here but 4yo mares returning not a type that interests me

Solid summary, J. Very light on for this time I’m of the year, on George at a price and a half, this stage done me dough on Birdman at a price off last run, same with AB’s SS. Got more futures punts on for CC than MC this stage.

 

[FFB1]

PRE WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE ($20)
2. PLACE DU CARROUSEL ($70)
3. WARP SPEED ($36)
4. CIRCLE OF FIRE ($17)
5. MIDDLE EARTH ($24)
6. ROYAL SUPREMECY ($140)
7. SAYEDATY SEDATY ($51)
8. ABSURDE ($26)
9. HIPOP DE LOIRE ($101)
10. QUE TEMPESTA ($75)

Any news that DELIUS ($110), JAN BRUGHEL ($51) or ILLINOIS ($38) are coming and they will slot in towards the top but seems less likely than likely.

Stepping up in Paris’ absence.

You heading to call of the card this year?

 

[Jugada]

Stepping up in Paris’ absence.

You heading to call of the card this year?

Too far away to get to that unfortunately

 

[plays tall 1]

Hegan’s chat with Felgate today worth a listen. Key take-outs below.

The uplift in weights of NH 3yos is back (after mysteriously and without explanation disappearing last year). As things stand Illinois and Jan Brueghel are probably looking at 52.5-53.5kgs. Grosvenor Square is a bit more complicated due to the need for relativity with Vauban and Absurde (which he thrashed).

Saint George is around the bottom of the weight scale and, unless he can elevate his rating before weights are released, or win an exempt race, may be at risk of missing a run. Those are Hegan’s thoughts, my thoughts are we struggle to get a full field these days so he’d still be a decent chance to make the field at the bottom of the weights. But if he can’t win a Naturalism, Archer, MV Cup or Geelong Cup, he might not be the great prospect he appears to be.

Circle of Fire likely to be around 53.5-54.5kgs.
Vauban ~ 55-55.5kgs
Fawkner Park ~ 55kgs
Absurde ~ 53 kgs
Riff Rocket ~ 53-54kgs
Middle Earth ~ 55kgs
Warp Speed ~ 54-55kgs
Magical Zoe ~ 52kgs
Without A Fight ~ 58.5kgs

He said Harbour Wind and Delios are 2 that he suspects aren’t fully exposed yet and didn’t offer an opinion on likely weights for them.

 

[Jugada]

Hegan’s chat with Felgate today worth a listen. Key take-outs below.

The uplift in weights of NH 3yos is back (after mysteriously and without explanation disappearing last year). As things stand Illinois and Jan Brueghel are probably looking at 52.5-53.5kgs. Grosvenor Square is a bit more complicated due to the need for relativity with Vauban and Absurde (which he thrashed).

Saint George is around the bottom of the weight scale and, unless he can elevate his rating before weights are released, or win an exempt race, may be at risk of missing a run. Those are Hegan’s thoughts, my thoughts are we struggle to get a full field these days so he’d still be a decent chance to make the field at the bottom of the weights. But if he can’t win a Naturalism, Archer, MV Cup or Geelong Cup, he might not be the great prospect he appears to be.

Circle of Fire likely to be around 53.5-54.5kgs.
Vauban ~ 55-55.5kgs
Fawkner Park ~ 55kgs
Absurde ~ 53 kgs
Riff Rocket ~ 53-54kgs
Middle Earth ~ 55kgs
Warp Speed ~ 54-55kgs
Magical Zoe ~ 52kgs
Without A Fight ~ 58.5kgs

He said Harbour Wind and Delios are 2 that he suspects aren’t fully exposed yet and didn’t offer an opinion on likely weights for them.

Yeah given attrition lately I have little to no concern about horses making the field. We are at the point where if you don't make the field you had no chance anyway.

Of those ones mentioned Saint George sounds like he is going to be absolutely thrown in, Circle of Fire going to be giving away too much weight to similar horses, Fawkner Park absolutely cast at the weights off one outlier run and Middle Earth going to get a good Cups weight if he can bounce back to form

 

[diggo1]

PRE WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE ($20)

Just wondering why you rate Saint George so highly? Just looking at his Timeform figures is fairly underwhelming with a peak of 113 last year, which is a good 5-7 pounds below the likes of Middle Earth, Vauban & Grosvenor Square’s recent ratings.

Would you be able to elaborate on what you see in Saint George that the average mug like myself can’t? Cheers

 

[Jugada]

Just wondering why you rate Saint George so highly? Just looking at his Timeform figures is fairly underwhelming with a peak of 113 last year, which is a good 5-7 pounds below the likes of Middle Earth, Vauban & Grosvenor Square’s recent ratings.

Would you be able to elaborate on what you see in Saint George that the average mug like myself can’t? Cheers

His European 3yo season was on par with a horse like Tower of London who we have seen reach a level since that would have him near the top of the weights. We also have good references out here for horses like Land Legend and Circle of Fire who he was considerably better than during their 3yo season and he is going to meet the latter considerably better off at the weights most likely.

Middle Earth is good enough if at his best but you just have to factor in the shocking last start.

Grosvenor Square is a fair 3yo but you will likely have to cop both weight and price juice based on his 30 length win where the jockeys did their best impression of the QE fiasco. Also a query on if he even comes

 

[FFB1]

Only second up here and a fair distance jump, but can pretty much pen COTG after that one, seriously one paced

 

[Jugada]

Yep Changingoftheguard in the bin

Lloyd doing a great job lately of buying bottomed out high level Euros who go backwards out here

 

[FFB1]

Yep Changingoftheguard in the bin

Lloyd doing a great job lately of buying bottomed out high level Euros who go backwards out here

Filled a few placings - purple moon / Mahler/ JV / Paradiso (could have become anything), but no Galileo’s have won the MC.

Another Galileo = Ebor’s Relentless Voyager, $101 to $34 suggests been bought but see above.

 

[Jugada]

Those sort of stats mean pretty little to me. If you can run 2nd numerous times you have the ability to win. Don't think you can be strictly results oriented when looking at a sample size in the tens when variance plays a huge factor.

It was only a few years ago when everyone here was penning everything that had run in the cup previously and not won

 

[plays tall 1]

Adelaide River was good. Might be back on track. I’m surprised the corporates haven’t wound him in from $51 after that. He’s qualified and shouldn’t get too much weight.

 

[Jugada]

Adelaide River was good. Might be back on track. I’m surprised the corporates haven’t wound him in from $51 after that. He’s qualified and shouldn’t get too much weight.

Yep just mentioned that in the daily thread. Nice return this time. Looked more a Caulfield Cup horse initially but one should lead into being a chance in the other

 

[FFB1]

AR was good but Kris Lees..

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Keen watch tonight

 

[Jugada]

If he isn't winning that race then he won't be winning a Melbourne Cup so may as well just take the all up if interested

 

[Jugada]

Meh nothing to get too excited with there

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Meh nothing to get too excited with there

Went well enough won’t cop a penalty for winning
Would think more likely than not based off that
Weight will be more than fine

 

[FFB1]

Went well enough won’t cop a penalty for winning
Would think more likely than not based off that
Weight will be more than fine

Couldnt possibly take the $26 about it now, that’s unders it getting on the plane.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Couldnt possibly take the $26 about it now, that’s unders it getting on the plane.

Am on at 51's

I think long term running a good 2nd there is more beneficial it wont cop a weight penalty
Weight was one of the big factors on whether is comes, when these are released I think it will give best indication

Based off that run it can certainly figure, showed turn of foot, fought well to line.

 

[FFB1]

Am on at 51's

I think long term running a good 2nd there is more beneficial it wont cop a weight penalty
Weight was one of the big factors on whether is comes, when these are released I think it will give best indication

Based off that run it can certainly figure, showed turn of foot, fought well to line.

I have doubts about it at 2 mile here, might be just me though.

 

[Jugada]

Futures bet glasses on I think. Yeah he wont have to worry about carrying a weight but that's because he came through a garbage form race and crossed the line with a complete plodder. Sevenna's Knight gave them 2kg and put them away with ease and he has been completely shown up outside the G3/G2 French staying rubbish.

Its the race Lastotchka won last year by a couple lengths and did nothing. Haky a few years prior ran 2nd and got lapped in every lead up out here trying to get into a Cup.

Harbour Wind was a horse I was somewhat interested in as a progressive 3yo last year but really he hasn't shown anything yet to suggest he would be up to the level required in a Cup. Plus there is still the huge question mark on if he would even come. He is a $30+ on the day type

 

[FFB1]

Relentless Voyager, $101 to $34 suggests been bought.

Bump Looks like AB.