Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

Going through the noms and filtering out all the ones that have none and having a look at what's left

Absurde - Not quite going as well as last year but can run top 10 again
Adelaide River - Going shit. Gelded since but that seems desperate
Arrest - Has turned into a bog average horse
Birdman - Dreadful last start
Changingoftheguard - Fair first up. Need to see over 2400m+
Circle Of Fire - Decent stayer but unders and likely to get a bit too much weight
Coco Sun - SA form not typically good enough
Delius - Really good French 3yo. Too good to come out though especially being a Coolmore horse
Eliyass - Sydney Metrop horse with class and distance being big doubts for me
Fawkner Park - Q22 win a big outlier on performance so would want to see him back that up
Future History - Didn't think he was good enough last year so wont be with him this year
Grosvenor Square - Seems unlikely to come
Harbour Wind - Seems unlikely to come
Hipop De Loire - Would have it above all the other Ebor runners
Illinois - Too good to come
Jan Brueghel - Surely too good to come as well
Kinesiology - Second tier 3yo. First across the line in the Vinnie Roe beating Birdman by 10L+
Land Legend - Decent chance has been Waller'd
Magical Zoe - Probably my second choice of the Ebor runners so hard to get too enthused
Middle Earth - Dreadful last start. Been gelded seems a bit desperate again
Place Du Carrousel - One of my top picks for the Caulfield Cup so has to be up there somewhat in the rankings
Point King - MV Cup horse
Point Lonsdale - Going shit and failed the vets last year
Poptronic - Another one that looks a Metrop horse if it comes back well
Que Tempesta - Good return in the Heatherlie. Italian form is generally rubbish but its here and running well at least
Relentless Voyager - Third pick of the Ebor runners so not keen at the moment
Riff Rocket - Seems incredibly unlikely to be on a Cup prep
Royal Supremecy - Similar second rate 3yo to The Euphrates and Kinesiology
Saint George - Great Euro form. Great return. One of the top seeds
Sayedaty Sadaty - Not a bad 3yo taking on the better Euro 3yos but run in the Gordon Stakes didnt look like a 2 mile horse.
Sea King - 4th pick of the Ebor runners and thus has little to no chance for me
The Equator - Least impressive of the 3yos in the mix
The Euphrates - Crossed the line with Kinesiology a couple back so similar level. They're about a Valiant King level of 3yo
Vauban - Terrible odds for a horse who we have a decent idea of his level out here.
Warp Speed - Second rate Japanese stayer who is very similar levels to a horse like Breakup last year
Without a Fight - Couldn't possibly entertain off the prep
Zardozi - Dont think it will even end up here but 4yo mares returning not a type that interests me

 

[plays tall 1]

What weight is Warmonger likely to get?

53-54kgs according to the handicapper when interviewed recently.

 

[Sockeye]

What weight is Warmonger likely to get?

53-54kgs according to the handicapper when interviewed recently.

He just ran past some very good horses at WFA and likely to get better over further distance. Don't think any Qld derby winners have won the cup? but some have gone on to big WFA wins. I don't think many/any won it as impressively as he did.

 

[Jugada]

Vauban running 2nd to Kyprios in the Irish St Leger probably going to get a few interested. The Euphrates so close up after being the bunny for Kyprios makes it a bit questionable for me

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

This any chance?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

This any chance?
View attachment 2112707

A few legs looks good - doubt TW is a derby horse though

 

[Jugada]

This any chance?
View attachment 2112707

Probably decent because 3 of the 4 legs are great chances and Traffic Warden has so little chance of running in a Derby that they probably wont even nominate so that will be a refund.

There are huge question marks on if Traffic Warden will even step out to the mile so no chance he is a Derby horse. The Everest seems most likely

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Probably decent because 3 of the 4 legs are great chances and Traffic Warden has so little chance of running in a Derby that they probably wont even nominate so that will be a refund.

There are huge question marks on if Traffic Warden will even step out to the mile so no chance he is a Derby horse. The Everest seems most likely

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

 

[Jugada]

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

Complete dartboard at the moment but taking a stab Henlein looks to be tracking towards a Spring Champion/Derby path

 

[TBellicious]

Melbourne Cup weights found here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...bourne-cup-elimination-order-sep-17.pdf?la=en

Board hope Saint George 50kg

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Internationals all fair well here for me
Absurde
Saint G
Harbour W
Jan B

all have excellent weights for winning chances

 

[Jugada]

Will go over better later but at a quick glance

Best off: Illinois, Delius*, Absurde, Saint George

Worst off: Kalapour, Fawkner Park, Circle of Fire, Harbour Wind

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Will go over better later but at a quick glance

Best off: Illinois, Delius*, Absurde, Saint George

Worst off: Kalapour, Fawkner Park, Circle of Fire, Harbour Wind

HW will carry that weight no problem

 

[onthehill24]

Will go over better later but at a quick glance

Best off: Illinois, Delius*, Absurde, Saint George

Worst off: Kalapour, Fawkner Park, Circle of Fire, Harbour Wind

Saint George might have to win a race to get up the OOE ?

 

[Lunchtime]

Any of the light weights that take anyone's fancy in the 50kg range?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Any of the light weights that take anyone's fancy in the 50kg range?

Saint G the obvious

 

[Jugada]

Saint George might have to win a race to get up the OOE ?

Almost certainly but if he cant do that he isn't the winning chance we thought he was anyway

 

[Jugada]

HW will carry that weight no problem

He has won a Listed race at Limerick and got beaten in a rubbish French G3 race. Getting 53kg is pretty gross for that sort of form

 

[Peter Doherty]

He has won a Listed race at Limerick and got beaten in a rubbish French G3 race. Getting 53kg is pretty gross for that sort of form

The Map's trainer, Oopy Macgillivray, put a positive spin on the weights today.

Just means you have more jockey options

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

Scary is bred for

Thanks, who do you like in the Derby?

The horse that I like on pedigree for the derby is Scary at 26/1. Sire Shocking (MC winner) from a Reliable Man mare. Might lack the class but will certainly get the distance.

 

[Jugada]

PRE WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE ($20)
2. PLACE DU CARROUSEL ($70)
3. WARP SPEED ($36)
4. CIRCLE OF FIRE ($17)
5. MIDDLE EARTH ($24)
6. ROYAL SUPREMECY ($140)
7. SAYEDATY SEDATY ($51)
8. ABSURDE ($26)
9. HIPOP DE LOIRE ($101)
10. QUE TEMPESTA ($75)

Any news that DELIUS ($110), JAN BRUGHEL ($51) or ILLINOIS ($38) are coming and they will slot in towards the top but seems less likely than likely.

POST WEIGHTS RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE - Down on the minimum as expected. Will cop a penalty at some point if he is any chance.
2. PLACE DU CARROUSEL - In reasonably at 54kg. Think Caulfield Cup is a better fit but one should lead to the other.
3. WARP SPEED - Gets in half a kilo lighter than Breakup who I think was a similar horse.
4. ILLINOIS* - Factoring in the fact he is an unlikely traveler given Aiden said he wanted to drop him back to 2400m.
5. WARMONGER - 53.5kg about par but put in a nice return so goes in the mix now.
6. ABSURDE - Gets in decently at the weights meeting the stablemate a kilo better off than last year.
7. ADELAIDE RIVER - Finally showed a return to form on the weekend and is in really well at 53 on his former Euro form if he can get back to that sort of level.
8. ROYAL SUPREMECY - On the minimum as expected.
9. SAYEDATY SEDATY - Probably more a CC 3yo but on the minimum is in the mix.
10. HIPOP DE LOIRE - Not sure if he is coming yet especially with so much available on the back side of BF and would need to win something first to get a run but weighted the best of the Ebor runners so tentatively putting him in at the bottom.

THOUGHTS ON OTHERS IN THE MARKET

VAUBAN - Think his runs are being over sold leading in and will likely be false favourite again.
CIRCLE OF FIRE - Terrible week. Resumed running tailed off last and lumped with 54.5. Putting a line though him
GROSVENOR SQUARE - Even if he comes he is in the bin after his Leger run and he is weighted to his absolute best.
JAN BRUEGHEL - Good win in the Leger but I would have massive doubts on him coming and Illinois looks the one of Aiden's that I would be interested in as more likely to come, better suited to Australian racing and better off at the weights. If he comes he will go in some where though.
POINT KING - Weighted fine but that Archer win looked miles off what is required.
HARBOUR WIND - Genuine lols at the media punters carrying on like this guy was the best handicapped. One of the worst weighted for me with 53kg. He has won absolutely nothing to date and is being both weighted and priced on #guessing potential. Will likely be severe unders through out just based on his trainer.
FAWKNER PARK - Absolutely cast at the weights with 55kg and still question marks on him even running the trip.
MAGICAL ZOE - Betfair says not coming.
COCO SUN - In the race with 50.5kg so job done there and not a type im usually interested in but at $200 just looks like a light weight type that we see on the day at like 20-1