Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

OCTOBER RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE - The drop off for him seems ridiculous to me. An unlucky loss by 2L and everyone wants to be on him. An average 0.4L loss in the exact same sort of race and he is out the gate. Won't show near his best until he gets to the 2500-3200m range and expect he will be back to the top of the markets after the Bart Cummings.

2. WARP SPEED - Slides up a spot due to Place Du Carrousel shitting the bed.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Class Euro 3yo. I do have doubts on his tactical speed for Australian racing and is weighted up to his best for a horse with his record has to go in near the top. Won't be a betting prospect for me though unless we are getting in the $9-10 range on the day.

4. WARMONGER - D Day coming up in the Turnbull.

5. ABSURDE - Goes up a spot thanks to other flops.

6. PLACE DU CARROUSEL - Poor run first up but the track was complete shit so can forgive that run if she bounces back next time. Has to drop down the order though if she doesn't have the WFA class to off set the distance query.

7. SAYEDATY SEDATY - If you like Jan then you haver to have this guy in the mix I think. Run was fair behind him in the Gordon Stakes and will meet him 2.5kg better off for that day.

8. VAUBAN - Think he is too short and needs conditions to suit on the day which he probably wont get but needs to slot in here still.

9. COCO SUN - Think she has the upside to possibly elevate her level to what is required up in trip and she is already in the race with a light weight.

10. KINESIOLOGY - Just something outside the box who might have some upside. Fair 3yo form in Europe. Was joint favourite with Birdman in a race that we were watching to see how that horse would go and he was first across the line beating Birdman by 11 lengths but is 4x the price of that runner in markets.

 

[Jugada]

Yep agree about Via Sistina, just weird that her runs are pretty much identical to Veery Elleegants 2021 MC win. Same weekend gaps as 2021, 3 WFA races and 1 handicap. Both quality mares.

Would be a long shot but he has done last minute in the past….

‘I didn’t want to run her’: Waller’s startling admission over Verry Elleegant’s Cup triumph

While other Sydney-based trainers and even Ireland’s Joseph O’Brien made last-minute dashes to Melbourne, the champion conditioner watched his first Cup victory from home.

www.theage.com.au

They're pretty much the same as Winx too and pretty standard for a Cox Plate prep. VE had already won two G1s over 2400m and run in a Melbourne Cup before that year. Via Sistina has run like 90% of her races over 2000m and ran last her only attempt at further. She will either be in the Champion Stakes or spelling after the Cox Plate to get read for the QE in the Autumn

 

[Lunchtime]

Current Rankings

1. Via Sistina
2. Jan Brueghel
3. Point King
4. Absurde
5. Warp Speed
6. Land Legend
7. Buckaroo

What races have we got left over the next 4 weeks:

• Herbert Power
• Caufield Cup
• Geelong Cup
• MV Cup
• Cox Plate
• the time honoured Bendigo Cup

Herbert Power Stakes can be a good guide to the Melbourne Cup sometimes.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Obviously a quality horse but my biggest knock on him is that fact he lacks tactical speed and doesn't have a fast change up of gears which is far from ideal for Australian racing.

All three races since his debut he has been a short favourite in small fields and pumped along from a long way out and just out toughing them by a neck in all three races.

54kg is a lot for a 3yo as well. There were plenty on here that thought DL was put in take out in his year despite the weight

I take your points but I cannot ignore the win over 2000 metres running over second quicker than Bluestocking on the same day. That does not mean he beats her on the day but he would have been right in the race. It also suggests if he can win a good race in good time over 2,000 metres he will have the tactical speed for the cup.

A favourable comparison with the Arc winner is A+ form for the cup. The other thought is I know is Aiden O'Brien has a burning desire to win the cup and this is the horse he is has selected to do it.

 

[cruskits]

They're pretty much the same as Winx too and pretty standard for a Cox Plate prep. VE had already won two G1s over 2400m and run in a Melbourne Cup before that year. Via Sistina has run like 90% of her races over 2000m and ran last her only attempt at further. She will either be in the Champion Stakes or spelling after the Cox Plate to get read for the QE in the Autumn

Yeah Champion Stakes makes sense. She looked quite at home on the Flemington track being a bigger longer striding horse. Will be interesting to see how she gets around MV.

 

[cruskits]

The other think I know is Aiden O'Brien has a burning desire to win the cup and this is the horse he is has selected to do it.

Yes, this sits high on my checklist. Trainers and jockeys that haven’ won one before. It makes sense that they naturally go that little bit extra trying to win one. Imagine his son each Christmas mentioning that he has won the MC every time the discussion comes up. Classic stuff

 

[Lunchtime]

• Herbert Power

One for the trifectas and quartets for the Cup - since 1980: 19 out of the past 43 years (including 7 out of the last 10 years) a Herbert Power runner has run top 4 in the Melbourne Cup:

1980: BELDALE BALL
2nd in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

1981: JUST A DASH
7th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

1985: FIL DE ROI
1st in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

1986: AT TALAQ
4th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

1990: MR BROOKER
7th in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

1992: MR EUROSTAR
7th in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

1996: SKYBEAU
3rd in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

1999: ROGAN JOSH
1st in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2000: YIPPYIO
4th in Herbert Power
2nd in the Melbourne Cup

2004: ZAZZMAN
3rd in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

2005: LEICA FALCON
1st in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

2009: SHOCKING
2nd in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2013: SIMENON
3rd in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

2014: PROTECTIONIST
4th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2015: PRINCE OF PENZANCE
8th in Herbert Power
1st in Melbourne Cup

2018: PRINCE OF ARRAN
3rd in Herbert Power
3rd in Melbourne Cup

2019: PRINCE OF ARRAN
2nd in Herbert Power
2nd in Melbourne Cup

2020: THE CHOSEN ONE
7th in Herbert Power
4th in Melbourne Cup

2022: EMISSARY
8th in Herbert Power
2nd in Melbourne Cup

 

[Lunchtime]

• Herbert Power

Three things about the Herbert Power, in particular the first two dot points are interesting:

1. The Herbert Power winner earns a free ticket into the Caulfield Cup and is guaranteed a start in the race.

2. The Herbert Power winner can not be given a weight penalty for the Caulfield Cup.

3. The winner of the Herbert Power may be liable for a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup if deemed necessary by the handicapper David Hegan.

 

[Jugada]

I take your points but I cannot ignore the win over 2000 metres running over second quicker than Bluestocking on the same day. That does not mean he beats her on the day but he would have been right in the race. It also suggests if he can win a good race in good time over 2,000 metres he will have the tactical speed for the cup.

A favourable comparison with the Arc winner is A+ form for the cup. The other thought is I know is Aiden O'Brien has a burning desire to win the cup and this is the horse he is has selected to do it.

Fair enough. Personally put little stock in overall times especially from a race in June on a bog track where horses could have progressed a lot in that time and there was a significant weight difference on the day.

Following the same logic Trustyourinstinct would have run faster time than Bluestocking on that day too and he carried 5.5kg more than JB but I wouldnt be calling it Arc form.

A trainer being 0 for 50 with brining out horses not exactly a huge positive for me either with his selection criteria

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Fair enough. Personally put little stock in overall times especially from a race in June on a bog track where horses could have progressed a lot in that time and there was a significant weight difference on the day.

Following the same logic Trustyourinstinct would have run faster time than Bluestocking on that day too and he carried 5.5kg more than JB but I wouldnt be calling it Arc form.

A trainer being 0 for 50 with brining out horses not exactly a huge positive for me either with his selection criteria

I would say there is no way you would be backing JB. I know it stupid odds but for a bit fun I have taken 8 $20 multis

CC Eliyass Buckeroo
CP Prognosis
Derby Holbien, Scary, Red Ace, Keenland
MC JB

Best result $72,000

I know it is dumb punting but it is my once a year tattslotto spend.

 

[FFB1]

From a MC perspective George leaves me with just Birdman. May be clutching at straws but Valiant King’s run in the Turnbull was alright after missing work.