Racing October Daily Punt- A cup , A plate and trip up Everest

[Drakescoffeecake]

Via Sistina for me

Huetor nice place odds

 

[qarocks]

berkshire not getting a chocolate ruined an otherwise decent day

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Cox plate can’t come quick enough..
looks set to be a cracker

 

[Jugada]

I reckon today thinned out the Cox Plate chances if anything. I would be winding in Prognosis and Broadsiding after today

 

[Peter Doherty]

Interesting Pride of Jenni nominating for the Toorak.

All's fair in love and war.

 

[Lunchtime]

One time Melbourne Cup hope Savennah's Knight ran super at good odds....ran 5th in the Arc. Was meant to come to Melbourne for the Cup, they chose the Arc instead.

 

[qarocks]

a monday with a bunch of BM72s, weird (but good)

 

[Jamz]

Warwick Farm R8 #12

 

[Peter Doherty]

a monday with a bunch of BM72s, weird (but good)

Public holidays everywhere but Victoria.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

a monday with a bunch of BM72s, weird (but good)

30th Anniversary of Glastonbury’s infamous victory in The Metropolitan. Probably the last day of vociferous anger on a race track

 

[Joker91]

Shambles with all in markets/noms today.

Jenni - toorak lol / might & power
MrB - nomd for hill stakes Sydney

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Question for the punters, particularly horse racing. What sort of a betting strategy or staking plan do you generally try and stick to? My biggest issue is I get involved with races I really shouldn’t. Sometimes it turns profitable, but more often than not.

An example is those stupid midway races on a Saturday.. let’s be honest nobody should really get involved.. but ya know JMac Waller.. 1st up.. $2.50 ..

For me, Let’s say i’am walking into Caulfield on Saturday. Already having backed broadsiding at 4s.
I’ll have my “bank “ for the day let’s say it’s $1000..

Across the Melbourne/Sydney/Adeliade there are 30 odd races to choose from and no i’am not counting Wodonga or some Western Australian random track.

Ideally I find by 3 best bets regardless of the price and bet accordingly based on a % of bankroll and confidence. Maybe 10-15% Into a quaddie/doubles and a 10-15% fun bets to make it interesting.. nothing big but maybe a tri/f4 for interest.

Is there something else I can or should be doing that might help with my overall management and staking other than the obvious of punting at Doomban, Donald, Kemba ect;

 

[Jugada]

Question for the punters, particularly horse racing. What sort of a betting strategy or staking plan do you generally try and stick to? My biggest issue is I get involved with races I really shouldn’t. Sometimes it turns profitable, but more often than not.

An example is those stupid midway races on a Saturday.. let’s be honest nobody should really get involved.. but ya know JMac Waller.. 1st up.. $2.50 ..

For me, Let’s say i’am walking into Caulfield on Saturday. Already having backed broadsiding at 4s.
I’ll have my “bank “ for the day let’s say it’s $1000..

Across the Melbourne/Sydney/Adeliade there are 30 odd races to choose from and no i’am not counting Wodonga or some Western Australian random track.

Ideally I find by 3 best bets regardless of the price and bet accordingly based on a % of bankroll and confidence. Maybe 10-15% Into a quaddie/doubles and a 10-15% fun bets to make it interesting.. nothing big but maybe a tri/f4 for interest.

Is there something else I can or should be doing that might help with my overall management and staking other than the obvious of punting at Doomban, Donald, Kemba ect;

If you are not taking price into account then there isn't really any way to manage things properly.

To be perfectly honest based on your current strategy you should just try to be ok doing it for fun and bet what you are happy losing

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

If you are not taking price into account then there isn't really any way to manage things properly.

To be perfectly honest based on your current strategy you should just try to be ok doing it for fun and bet what you are happy losing

For argument sake, let’s say I was taking price into account when betting. How should I adapt or change this strategy.

 

[Jugada]

For argument sake, let’s say I was taking price into account when betting. How should I adapt or change this strategy.

Just go through your races, identify your value runners, maybe bet to win x amount to keep things simple. Avoid betting on any other races, avoid betting just for fun, avoid any exotics unless there is a reason to think they could be value.

If you find yourself betting in majority of races then you almost certainly don't have an edge.

I would imagine its easier from the point you are at at the moment to just be ok with it being entertainment and firstly look to just minimize your losses with some of the above things. Maybe try pricing a market to 100% just for practice to see where you are at

 

[Hamingja]

Question for the punters, particularly horse racing. What sort of a betting strategy or staking plan do you generally try and stick to? My biggest issue is I get involved with races I really shouldn’t. Sometimes it turns profitable, but more often than not.

An example is those stupid midway races on a Saturday.. let’s be honest nobody should really get involved.. but ya know JMac Waller.. 1st up.. $2.50 ..

For me, Let’s say i’am walking into Caulfield on Saturday. Already having backed broadsiding at 4s.
I’ll have my “bank “ for the day let’s say it’s $1000..

Across the Melbourne/Sydney/Adeliade there are 30 odd races to choose from and no i’am not counting Wodonga or some Western Australian random track.

Ideally I find by 3 best bets regardless of the price and bet accordingly based on a % of bankroll and confidence. Maybe 10-15% Into a quaddie/doubles and a 10-15% fun bets to make it interesting.. nothing big but maybe a tri/f4 for interest.

Is there something else I can or should be doing that might help with my overall management and staking other than the obvious of punting at Doomban, Donald, Kemba ect;

I stick to Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide metro. When they race those one off Saturday meets at Ballarat, Pakenham, Newcastle, Gawler etc I just pen the meeting.

I pen the midway and highway in Sydney straight away as you say.

Then I guess it comes down to how you do the form.

Personally I don't watch trials, jump outs or midweek maidens etc so I just pen the maidens, 2yo and 3yo races. If you are not doing the work you are just going to get sucked into the hype and the hype horses are always going to be unders. Most of the time those horses are either ran into the ground as 2yos and 3yos and don't come up as older horses or they are just retired to stud so the formlines are mostly pointless moving forward anyway. If a 3yo races the older horses I just penalise them and either back around them or stay out of the race.

I wouldn't generally bother with anything <BM68, which only really applies to Adelaide on a Saturday.

So if you just exclude those races for example, last Saturday would only have to do the form for 6/10 in Melbourne, 5/10 in Sydney, 3/9 in Adelaide.

Then choose what races you want to have a bet in from there. Becomes a lot more manageable.

 

[qarocks]

Question for the punters, particularly horse racing. What sort of a betting strategy or staking plan do you generally try and stick to? My biggest issue is I get involved with races I really shouldn’t. Sometimes it turns profitable, but more often than not.

An example is those stupid midway races on a Saturday.. let’s be honest nobody should really get involved.. but ya know JMac Waller.. 1st up.. $2.50 ..

For me, Let’s say i’am walking into Caulfield on Saturday. Already having backed broadsiding at 4s.
I’ll have my “bank “ for the day let’s say it’s $1000..

Across the Melbourne/Sydney/Adeliade there are 30 odd races to choose from and no i’am not counting Wodonga or some Western Australian random track.

Ideally I find by 3 best bets regardless of the price and bet accordingly based on a % of bankroll and confidence. Maybe 10-15% Into a quaddie/doubles and a 10-15% fun bets to make it interesting.. nothing big but maybe a tri/f4 for interest.

Is there something else I can or should be doing that might help with my overall management and staking other than the obvious of punting at Doomban, Donald, Kemba ect;

id read the papers called
"computer based horse racing handicapping and wagering systems" W.Benter (the GOAT)
"efficiency of the market for racetrack betting" hausch/ziemba/rubenstein
"searching for positive returns at the track" bolton/chapman

 

[qarocks]

I wouldn't generally bother with anything <BM68, which only really applies to Adelaide on a Saturday.

my limit is BM72, everything under is just too volatile. too often your #1 rated horse could win easily one week and then come dead last randomly the next against a bunch of plodders. its just an extra layer of randomness you are better off without.

 

[Gaston]

The Caulfield Guineas field has fallen away badly.
I wonder if the powers that be start considering the programming of this race.

V/Landy's only has to turn Golden Eagle day into Golden Day and transfer the Rose to this date,
and the Caulfield Guiineas becomes all but irrelevant.

 

[Hamingja]

my limit is BM72, everything under is just too volatile. too often your #1 rated horse could win easily one week and then come dead last randomly the next against a bunch of plodders. its just an extra layer of randomness you are better off without.

The BM 68 thing is really only for Adelaide racing. I like backing Adelaide horses in Melbourne so if you are following from 68 level you can identify the progressive ones on the way through. Ultimately in Melbourne and Sydney you are not having many low BM races on a Saturday, outside of Highway/Midway and the odd 3yo race, which I am penning anyway.

 

[TBellicious]

The Caulfield Guineas field has fallen away badly.
I wonder if the powers that be start considering the programming of this race.

V/Landy's only has to turn Golden Eagle day into Golden Day and transfer the Rose to this date,
and the Caulfield Guiineas becomes all but irrelevant.

It's mostly fine. The best miler colts are still heading there, it's just the quality & depth probably isn't the same as it was.

 

[DirtyLeeds]

Anyone see my horse run in Bendigo Sunday, Sacramental?? Needs blinkers but the trainer is resisting....

 

[HeathySure]

Anyone see my horse run in Bendigo Sunday, Sacramental?? Needs blinkers but the trainer is resisting....

It won, i wouldn't complain. Trainer surely knows more than the owners though...

 

[Moonatic77]

Mayfair in the Caul Guineas. Will shake the life out of the race I think. Best E.W bet I've seen for a while

 

[Waca Jr]

The Caulfield Guineas field has fallen away badly.
I wonder if the powers that be start considering the programming of this race.

V/Landy's only has to turn Golden Eagle day into Golden Day and transfer the Rose to this date,
and the Caulfield Guiineas becomes all but irrelevant.

Broadsiding scared them all off. Looks a thin year, but still very much relevant. Guineas winners turn out to be the best sires