Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

POST CAULFIELD CUP RANKINGS

Likely going to see a lot of movement after the Geelong Cup and MV Cup in the bottom half but for now

1. BUCKAROO - Had severe doubts on him running out the 2400m last week but the way he ran out that Caulfield Cup I have a lot less doubt on him at Flemington. The absolute quality in the field with strong WFA form and a turn of foot. He doesn't even need to super strong over 2 miles to be winning this, just handle it well enough. Take DDS out of that CC and he wins by 5 with huge margins in behind and cops a big penalty so pretty well weighted with that in mind.

2. ABSURDE - Pushing him above JB with the latter's odds coming in a bit and Sayedaty Sedaty not really franking that Euro 3yo form. Happy to bank on a firmish track at this point which will suit him most of the Euros and we are still getting a reasonable price about him.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Slips down simply because his odds are getting in too short and the form around SS didn't look that strong on Saturday.

4. VAUBAN - Simply through a ton of failures with the locals he has continued to ladder up. Still not a huge fan of the horse and if its a firm track on the day ill be leaving him out of pretty much everything.

5. WARP SPEED - Dreadful in the CC but to be fair it is exactly what I was expecting on a wet track. A firm track and 3200m will be completely different but would want to be getting a decent price about him on the day to make up for getting beat 16L leading in.

6. LAND LEGEND - Couldn't possibly have him beating Buckaroo after the CC but still ran 3rd after getting worked up pre race so has to slot in around here.

7. FRANCESCO GUARDI - Ticking along reasonably well behind WFA horses running on ok over unsuitable trips. Has raced three times beyond 2000m in this country for two huge runs and the flop that was too bad to be true in the CC last year so can see him improving well at his next run and coming into First 4 contention. Needs to pass the ballot still but would want to be doing that if he is any chance anyway.

8. SAINT GEORGE - Likely gone based on last run but if he was to bounce back in the MV Cup he is at least one who has the ability to win at his best which a lot of these don't.

9. KINESIOLOGY - Hard to see him getting a run at this point but if Birdman is favourite in a Geelong Cup and a 30-40s chance then this guy is a watch bringing in better form.

10. OKITA SOUSHI - Simply a tail end of First 4s option but has finally found some sort of form in this country and will run out the 2 miles and if he could run 11th in the race last year I could easily see him picking up a spot or 2 this year.

 

[Jugada]

Top 3 should get it into MC? $201 Lads, $151 fair but could do worse than chuck $10 on it there and if runs top 3 should be able to trade a decent enough of that back.

LDDV / WOTH can jump it though.

Not sure where he would land with prizemoney earned but if he wasn't winning a Bendigo Cup I wouldn't be too bothered with not having a ticket anyway. Much more upside with price reduction and you know you're in if you just take the win double anyway

 

[Hawksboy72]

I'll probably get done for contracting myself somewhere but who cares...I do remember Frankie Dettori once saying that you don't necessarily need a 2 mile horse to win the cup but a 2400m horse with a little bit of class could get the job done.

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[Lunchtime]

I'll probably get done for contracting myself somewhere but who cares...I do remember Frankie Dettori once saying that you don't necessarily need a 2 mile horse to win the cup but a 2400m horse with a little bit of class could get the job done.

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That's right and Dettori would know. In the 1999 Melbourne Cup he rode the Godolphin trained Central Park (57.5kg). The furtherest Central Park had won at prior to the Melbourne Cup was 2386m.

He nearly led all the way to win that Melbourne Cup.

Racing Australia | Horse Racing Results

Racing Australia is the national industry body representing Thoroughbred racing in Australia. Australian Horse Racing results, Horse Racing Materials.

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[Mobythepom]

Sea King @ $370 to do the Bendigo Cup / Melbourne Cup double at Ladbrokes not the worst play

Finished alongside Onesmoothoperator in the Ebor with the shorter SP and meets a similar field to what that horse did in the Geelong Cup before he won and came into single figures. Currently favourite for the Bendigo Cup and if he wins that you wont be getting $80 about him which is what the related outcomes juice comes out as

Even the Bendigo Cup win into a Melbourne Cup placing looks overs at about $114. Implying about a $25 place price if he were to win the Bendigo Cup which he would be much shorter than

Poison unders! Poi Poi. Slowbor form?! As the mighty Paris is no longer around I'll say it for him

 

[FFB1]

Poison unders! Poi Poi. Slowbor form?! As the mighty Paris is no longer around I'll say it for him

Geelong cup winner must be utter poi poi then! Worst case is do the $10 on SK, best case it wins and is $21 and can sell $60 x $21 for a tidy enough trade profit with a bit left over.

 

[FFB1]

Not sure where he would land with prizemoney earned but if he wasn't winning a Bendigo Cup I wouldn't be too bothered with not having a ticket anyway. Much more upside with price reduction and you know you're in if you just take the win double anyway

Reckon top 3 $ would be enough but depends on the other two.

 

[dontlimitme]

CATVALICA JUST WINS

 

[FFB1]

SK $201 to $101 Lads now

 

[FFB1]

Got wind of it last week but confirmed Lane on Kovalica

 

[dontlimitme]

Got wind of it last week but confirmed Lane on Kovalica

 

[Lunchtime]

Just in regards to Via Sistina if they do run her in the Melbourne Cup.

Horses who go to the Cup off a G1 WFA win generally run well in the Cup.

We don’t see it so much now since the Mackinnon Stakes moved from Vic Derby day (to final day of Cup carnival) but it’s been a proven formula.

Plus, nothing has ever gone into the Melbourne Cup off a WFA G1 win like Via Sistina produced on Saturday.

1986: At Talaq
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (58.5kg)
1st: Melbourne Cup (54.5kg)
Dropped 4kg

1988: Empire Rose
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (56.5kg)
1st: Melbourne Cup (53.5kg)
Dropped 3kg

1991: Let's Elope
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (54.5kg)
1st: Melbourne Cup (51kg)
Dropped 3.5kg

1992: Veandercross
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (57kg)
2nd: Melbourne Cup (54.5kg)
Dropped 2.5kg

1994: Paris Lane
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (57kg)
2nd: Melbourne Cup (55.5kg)
Dropped 1.5kg

1996: Saintly
1st: Cox Plate (57kg)
1st: Melbourne Cup (55.5kg)
Dropped 1.5kg

1998: Champagne
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (54.5kg)
2nd: Melbourne Cup (51kg)
Dropped 3.5kg

1999: Rogan Josh
1st: Mackinnon Stakes (58kg)
1st: Melbourne Cup (50kg)
Dropped 8kg

2005: Makybe Diva
1st: Cox Plate (55.5kg)
1st: Melbourne Cup (58kg)
Increased 2.5kg

2010: So You Think
1st Mackinnon Stakes (58kg)
3rd: Melbourne Cup (56kg)
Dropped 2kg

As history says.....last start G1 WFA winners can run top 3 in the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I would give her less than 2% chance of lining up in the race. Wouldn't make much sense as a gun 2000m horse with the Champion Stakes sitting there if needed post Cox Plate. Plus Waller already has Buckaroo going to the Cup so no need to test both his star middle distance horses. She also doesn't even look like a 2 miler so would be very strange.

Verry Elleegant was already an Oaks, Tancred and CC winner over 2400m before she even contested and lost her first MC

Latest mail is VS runs in the cup. Good to read the Waller tea leaves right through Very Elleegant's preparation being identical to VS and get the 21/1 on offer last week. Gee she is going to take some beating on a good track where she has won 6 with4 placings.

 

[Jamz]

Latest mail is VS runs in the cup. Good to read the Waller tea leaves right through Very Elleegant's preparation being identical to VS and get the 21/1 on offer last week. Gee she is going to take some beating on a good track where she has won 6 with4 placings.

Looks like she will be carrying the top weight. On form she's the one but can she get the 2 miles, if she does, she's an even money chance.

 

[The GOAT]

Latest mail is VS runs in the cup. Good to read the Waller tea leaves right through Very Elleegant's preparation being identical to VS and get the 21/1 on offer last week. Gee she is going to take some beating on a good track where she has won 6 with4 placings.

Source on latest mail? Haven’t seen anything either way.

 

[Jugada]

Latest mail is VS runs in the cup. Good to read the Waller tea leaves right through Very Elleegant's preparation being identical to VS and get the 21/1 on offer last week. Gee she is going to take some beating on a good track where she has won 6 with4 placings.

What latest mail?

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Looks like she will be carrying the top weight. On form she's the one but can she get the 2 miles, if she does, she's an even money chance.

That is the unknown but she switches off in the run which is a really good attribute to have to run the trip. The other theory I have is really strong big mares are at no disadvantage to stallions and geldings yet they get a 2.5 weight advantage under the weight for age scale. It is part of the reason why many of our recent absolute champions are mares like Black Caviar, Sunline and Winx. The other of course is so many our potential champion stallions retire early to stud.

 

[Lunchtime]

That is the unknown but she switches off in the run which is a really good attribute to have to run the trip. The other theory I have is really strong big mares are at no disadvantage to stallions and geldings yet they get a 2.5 weight advantage under the weight for age scale. It is part of the reason why many of our recent absolute champions are mares like Black Caviar, Sunline and Winx. The other of course is so many our potential champion stallions retire early to stud.

That's what made So You Think so good. He didn't retire early. Instead, he took on the world.....and succeeded. World class horse.

 

[Hawksboy72]

That's right and Dettori would know. In the 1999 Melbourne Cup he rode the Godolphin trained Central Park (57.5kg). The furtherest Central Park had won at prior to the Melbourne Cup was 2386m.

He nearly led all the way to win that Melbourne Cup.

Racing Australia | Horse Racing Results

Racing Australia is the national industry body representing Thoroughbred racing in Australia. Australian Horse Racing results, Horse Racing Materials.

racingaustralia.horse

Umm..thank you for bringing up the '99 Cup.
I drew Central Park in 4 sweeps and backed it ew think it was about 50 or 60/1.
Kayf Tara would've won that cup by panels had he not gone amiss a few days before the race.

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[Lunchtime]

Umm..thank you for bringing up the '99 Cup.
I drew Central Park in 4 sweeps and backed it ew think it was about 50 or 60/1.
Kayf Tara would've won that cup by panels had he not gone amiss a few days before the race.

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We will never know. Kayf Tara was allocated 58.5kg for the Melbourne Cup. Rogan Josh was flying at the time, only had 50kg too. Central Park ran a mighty race. Dettori rode him well...one of his beat rides in his career I think. You're right Kayf Tara was scratched 3 or 4 days before the Cup...he got injured and you're right again - Central Park paid around 50/1 or 60/1

 

[Mobythepom]

Buckaroo and Via Sistina (if running - think they will go to HK myself) will have way too much speed for the International horses unless the speed is dragged out of them by the pace. I know Willie Mullins is talking about riding his two further back this year but the Irish will know that a solid pace is to their advantage. I wonder if Jan B will be ridden very prominently? Buckaroo and Interpretation are the two who I think are sure to run big races. Doesn't look to be too much early pace about this year...

 

[Peter Doherty]

Thirsty Merc last week and now Anastacia this week, good lord.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

We will never know. Kayf Tara was allocated 58.5kg for the Melbourne Cup. Rogan Josh was flying at the time, only had 50kg too. Central Park ran a mighty race. Dettori rode him well...one of his beat rides in his career I think. You're right Kayf Tara was scratched 3 or 4 days before the Cup...he got injured and you're right again - Central Park paid around 50/1 or 60/1

I know the 99 cup very well. I raced Lady Elsie on lease with a group of friends. It was a carnage cup, Dettori got to the front on Central Park then put the breaks on and several horse suffered bad interference including the favourite Sky Heights and Lady Elsie. where she nearly fell. The pace remained slow for the whole race.

Lady Elsie drew 22 and went back where you did not want to be. She probably was not good enough and bit suspect at the distance but was coming off a slashing 3rd in the Geelong Cup where she came from last on the turn after drawing wide.

The only chance she had as it turned out with the pace was to go forward like Bart's Zazzabelle who dead heated for third.
We were a better horse than Zazzabelle but that is clutching at straws. It was an amazing day to have a cup runner but disappointing to have the race ruin for us not long after the start.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I know the owners and trainer have the right to leave the announcement on if VS is going to start the end of the week. However, I feel they should be more open and say unless she shows signs of not being 100% we are running. If the horse is fine they surely know what they are doing by now. The race needs her now by leaving it so long for a decision it will be a major downside if she does not run and take away from the theatre of the race.

Racing.com have reported the track rumour mill has her running hope they are right.

 

[Hawksboy72]

I know the 99 cup very well. I raced Lady Elsie on lease with a group of friends. It was a carnage cup, Dettori got to the front on Central Park then put the breaks on and several horse suffered bad interference including the favourite Sky Heights and Lady Elsie. where she nearly fell. The pace remained slow for the whole race.

Lady Elsie drew 22 and went back where you did not want to be. She probably was not good enough and bit suspect at the distance but was coming off a slashing 3rd in the Geelong Cup where she came from last on the turn after drawing wide.

The only chance she had as it turned out with the pace was to go forward like Bart's Zazzabelle who dead heated for third.
We were a better horse than Zazzabelle but that is clutching at straws. It was an amazing day to have a cup runner but disappointing to have the race ruin for us not long after the start.

Cassidy almost fell on The Hind at the 200...going for a run he was bolting..
Just like the 2015 cup, run it 10 times over get 10 different winners.
I was without work at the time and collected nearly $200 from the 4 sweeps which helped big time and that time.

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[Jugada]

JAN BRUEGHEL OUT