2024 Giro D'Italia

[eth-dog]

So I woke up at about 4:45 and couldn't fall asleep again so watched the course announcement video here:



From what I understand the key points are:

2x ITT's (68 km worth, first seems like a pure ITT course, second more technical)
5x flat stages (so enough for a few sprinters to target this race)
6x hilly stages
8x mountain stages (with 6 MTF's, the Stelvio being the Cima Coppi)
3x stages over 200km
Total distance 3,321 km (shortest since 1979)

A lot of the climbing is back ended as well, with four genuine mountain stages between stages 15 and 20.

My early thoughts are that this profile will favour the likes of João Almeida, Damiano Caruso, Simon Yates and Jai Hindley. I can see Sepp Kuss riding this as outright leader for JV but he'll need to be within a couple of minutes of Almeida and Caruso after the two ITT's to be a chance, similar to Jai Hindley. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ben O'Connor target this race after being passed by Felix Gall at AG2R.

My podium will probably be Hindley from Yates and Carapaz. Martinez my smokie for a podium finish

 

[yaco55]

I doubt S.Yates will ride the Giro even though he can hold his own in the ITT - His season worked well in 2023 with a 3 month break before the TDF where he performed well and then he performed decently in the Italian one day races. I reckon there are 7 sprint stages, so it will be interesting to see if they bring Ewan or Groenewegen.

 

[Orange Agent]

UAE are taking the cash. I reckon maybe 2mil in appearance fees, it must be bigger than the Giro has previously paid. Probably explains why Remco is doing the Tour when this suits him better. Pog riding at 80% could probably win this, even without strong support like A Yates, so backing up for the Tour is not a huge issue for him. How Vine, Almeida and co. feel about it is another thing.

 

[eth-dog]

UAE are taking the cash. I reckon maybe 2mil in appearance fees, it must be bigger than the Giro has previously paid. Probably explains why Remco is doing the Tour when this suits him better. Pog riding at 80% could probably win this, even without strong support like A Yates, so backing up for the Tour is not a huge issue for him. How Vine, Almeida and co. feel about it is another thing.

I think it means he'll struggle to win the Tour. And they've said they're going with all of Yates, Pogi, Almeida and Ayuso in the TDF, which gives me too many cooks vibes.

 

[yaco55]

The route for the Vuelta is unfavourable for sprinters so there will no Ewan for Jayco - This will make it more difficult for Jayco to organise a post TDF calendar for Ewan and Groenewegen.

 

[Orange Agent]

I think it means he'll struggle to win the Tour. And they've said they're going with all of Yates, Pogi, Almeida and Ayuso in the TDF, which gives me too many cooks vibes.

They are in position to use their numbers against other teams like Jumbo did to Pog so I think it will be a case of whoever is best positioned on GC come week 3 will be their guy. Ayuso is a very driven to succeed type of guy and will possibly be the one that will want to ride his own race. I think by now Almeida should of realised he is not gonna win a TDF and can be happy to help a teammate win. He is a bit one paced which is a good attribute for a climbing domestique.

 

[Dees]

They are in position to use their numbers against other teams like Jumbo did to Pog so I think it will be a case of whoever is best positioned on GC come week 3 will be their guy. Ayuso is a very driven to succeed type of guy and will possibly be the one that will want to ride his own race. I think by now Almeida should of realised he is not gonna win a TDF and can be happy to help a teammate win. He is a bit one paced which is a good attribute for a climbing domestique.

It's too many cooks for me also. If Almeida is happy being a full-time dom then fair enough but there is zero evidence to suggest he's willing to do that.

The numbers game I find a bit overrated also. It's worked on what, 2 TdF stages in the last 25 years? (08 Alpe D'Huez and 22 Galibier). UAE had favourable numbers last year (2nd and 3rd on GC) and it was completely irrelevant, as Vingegaard never regarded Yates as a credible threat.

Reckon 4 GC guys also massively hampers your ability to keep good position in the peloton and avoid crashes (see 2021 Ineos TdF).

 

[Orange Agent]

It's too many cooks for me also. If Almeida is happy being a full-time dom then fair enough but there is zero evidence to suggest he's willing to do that.

The numbers game I find a bit overrated also. It's worked on what, 2 TdF stages in the last 25 years? (08 Alpe D'Huez and 22 Galibier). UAE had favourable numbers last year (2nd and 3rd on GC) and it was completely irrelevant, as Vingegaard never regarded Yates as a credible threat.

Reckon 4 GC guys also massively hampers your ability to keep good position in the peloton and avoid crashes (see 2021 Ineos TdF).

I don't think they will all be told to ride for GC, it will come down to form and fitness.

 

[Orange Agent]

Wout is now confirmed for here and the Vuelta. And I think I saw Plapp is in also, with the TT k's and lack of high mountains he probably has the edge over Dunbar or Zanna but lack of 3 week racing is his biggest hurdle.

 

[yaco55]

Dunbar will be the leader at the Giro - Last year he had a poor preparation after crashing in his first race day and missing two months - He can do better thatn 7th with a trouble-free preparation - Would like Plapp to ride the TDF but I suspect he will be at the Giro.

 

[eth-dog]

Wout is now confirmed for here and the Vuelta. And I think I saw Plapp is in also, with the TT k's and lack of high mountains he probably has the edge over Dunbar or Zanna but lack of 3 week racing is his biggest hurdle.

Think Dunbar leads with Plapp getting free reign to target the ITT's.

Uijtdebroeks going to be Visma Lease A Bike GC leader confirmed. He's an exciting talent and a decent podium chance too.

Suspect the two wildcards will be Bardiani and Tudor Pro Cycling. It will be interesting to see which sprinter Tudor bring out of Mayrhofer and Dainese. You'd think Dainese is more likely but Mayrhofer is generally better early in seasons.

 

[yaco55]

Plapp will need a miracle in the ITT's as its hard to see him getting near Gana or Van Aert.

 

[eth-dog]

Lotto pass. Bardiani, Polti Kometa and Tudor the wildcards. Will be interesting to see Tudor's team.

 

[yaco55]

Poor form by Lotto to pass on this wildcard along with TDU, Poland, Basque etc,etc - They are gaming the system.

In Jayco news there is a battle between Ewan and Groenewegen to have Bling as part of their lead out - Of course he would be excellent value for either, BUT for Bling's results the Vuelta is the race, especially as the World's is unsuitable.

 

[eth-dog]

Poor form by Lotto to pass on this wildcard along with TDU, Poland, Basque etc,etc - They are gaming the system.

In Jayco news there is a battle between Ewan and Groenewegen to have Bling as part of their lead out - Of course he would be excellent value for either, BUT for Bling's results the Vuelta is the race, especially as the World's is unsuitable.

Is it that bad? We're better off having Tudor there with Trenton, Storer and either Dainese or Mayrhofer as a group than whatever Lotto pull together given De Lie won't ride it.

 

[yaco55]

Is it that bad? We're better off having Tudor there with Trenton, Storer and either Dainese or Mayrhofer as a group than whatever Lotto pull together given De Lie won't ride it.

Its bad because Lotto are rorting the UCI points system to get back into the WT - They have declined WT invites to TDU, Giro, Poland, Basque and Dauphine - Tudor would have got in before one of the two Italian Pro teams.

 

[eth-dog]

Its bad because Lotto are rorting the UCI points system to get back into the WT - They have declined WT invites to TDU, Giro, Poland, Basque and Dauphine - Tudor would have got in before one of the two Italian Pro teams.

Poland, Basque and Dauphine maybe but TDU and Giro? That's a stretch and you know it.

 

[yaco55]

Poland, Basque and Dauphine maybe but TDU and Giro? That's a stretch and you know it.

Lotto for two consecutive years has declined invitaions to the TDU and the giro.

 

[Orange Agent]

Who do Lotto send to the Giro? They are better off with DeLie and Krone at peak form for the TDF for sponsorship reasons which is important to them. The squad they have is maybe better suited to staying at Pro level until they regain their feet.

 

[yaco55]

Who do Lotto send to the Giro? They are better off with DeLie and Krone at peak form for the TDF for sponsorship reasons which is important to them. The squad they have is maybe better suited to staying at Pro level until they regain their feet.

So a team that is 8th in the UCI points ranking does not have a good enough team for the Giro - Give me a break!

 

[eth-dog]

Two weeks away. Gonna be an interesting one.

 

[eth-dog]

Anyway, predictions time with most of the major riders confirmed:

Maglia Rosa: Tadej Pogaçar
Podium: Romain Bardet, Cian Uijtedbroeks
Maglia Ciclamino: Kaden Groves
Maglia Azzurro: Nairo Quintana
Maglia Bianca: Cian Uijtedbroeks
Most stage wins: Tadej
First stage win: Julian Alaphilippe

 

[Vader]

When was the last time Alaphilippe won anything?

 

[eth-dog]

When was the last time Alaphilippe won anything?

Won 2 races last year (including a stage in the Dauphine)

 

[Vader]

Won 2 races last year (including a stage in the Dauphine)

Hasn't looked like getting close in any of the races I've seen this year. Isn't he still recovering from some injury?