2024 Lead Up Races

[eth-dog]

I think the fact that Tadej probably can't afford to race between the Giro and Tour and then Jonas and Remco likely won't be doing the Dauphine or Suisse points to Roglic as favourite.

I would say that Bernal's form in Catalunya and Paris-Nice was the best it's been. Geoghegan Hart, S Yates, Carapaz and Mas all probably fancy the podium given the injuries though.

 

[Vader]

I think the fact that Tadej probably can't afford to race between the Giro and Tour and then Jonas and Remco likely won't be doing the Dauphine or Suisse points to Roglic as favourite.

I would say that Bernal's form in Catalunya and Paris-Nice was the best it's been. Geoghegan Hart, S Yates, Carapaz and Mas all probably fancy the podium given the injuries though.

I can't remember a TdF field that was this wide open in a long time. Normally it's easy to identify 1-2 red hot favourites, with the other riders fighting for bronze. This year there doesn't seem to be any individual rider who really stands out.

You may well be correct in calling Roglic. He's a level down on Jonas & Pog, but neither are expected to be at their peak for the Tour this year, so that could make Roglic the pick of the bunch. Even so, he's not exactly head and shoulders above the rest of the pack.

 

[eth-dog]

I can't remember a TdF field that was this wide open in a long time. Normally it's easy to identify 1-2 red hot favourites, with the other riders fighting for bronze. This year there doesn't seem to be any individual rider who really stands out.

You may well be correct in calling Roglic. He's a level down on Jonas & Pog, but neither are expected to be at their peak for the Tour this year, so that could make Roglic the pick of the bunch. Even so, he's not exactly head and shoulders above the rest of the pack.

When you consider that Bernal (if he rides this), Geoghegan Hart, Yates, Carapaz and Mas combined have finished ahead of Rogliç in a GT once (Carapaz in the 2019 Giro) from 2018 onwards when he first became a real GC rider. Carapaz the only one to have gotten within 3 minutes of him in GC in that time too.

The last time was 2011 for me. The top 6 (including Contador) were all incredibly close.

 

[Vader]

When you consider that Bernal (if he rides this), Geoghegan Hart, Yates, Carapaz and Mas combined have finished ahead of Rogliç in a GT once (Carapaz in the 2019 Giro) from 2018 onwards when he first became a real GC rider. Carapaz the only one to have gotten within 3 minutes of him in GC in that time too.

I rate Roglic ahead of those riders... but behind Jonas & Pog. I'd have him roughly on the same level as Remco.

 

[eth-dog]

I rate Roglic ahead of those riders... but behind Jonas & Pog. I'd have him roughly on the same level as Remco.

I have him ahead of Remco because Remco's bad days are 15+ minutes still.

 

[Orange Agent]

I think it takes a miracle for Vingegaard to start TDF. They should probably plan for Jorgensen to be leader. Pog should be unbackable odds for the Giro and a without any hiccups should start the Tour as favourite. Remco should have time to recover but this will be harder than anything he has done before. Roglic is made from cement, which is lucky because his riding skills just aren't good enough to stay upright for 3 weeks, he should podium due to consistency but needs luck to go any better than that.
At the Giro, aside from UAE, AG2R have ridden like a different team this year and the guys going to support O'Connor have been really good for him this year, definitely want to see him podium. I think it's the year Ineos hand over the reins, G has looked pretty average in the lead up and Arensmen or Sheffield if he starts should be their guys.

 

[Vader]

I think it takes a miracle for Vingegaard to start TDF. They should probably plan for Jorgensen to be leader. Pog should be unbackable odds for the Giro and a without any hiccups should start the Tour as favourite. Remco should have time to recover but this will be harder than anything he has done before. Roglic is made from cement, which is lucky because his riding skills just aren't good enough to stay upright for 3 weeks, he should podium due to consistency but needs luck to go any better than that.

The only reason I think Pog may struggle at the Tour is the difficulty of backing up after completing the Giro, which he would be a massive favourite to win. Nobody has won the Giro/Tour double since Pantani, in 1988.

If he gets through the Giro, then he'll have even more miles under his belt than he did last year - and we saw how hard it was for him in the 2023 Tour, with the races he did pre-Tour then.

At the Giro, aside from UAE, AG2R have ridden like a different team this year and the guys going to support O'Connor have been really good for him this year, definitely want to see him podium. I think it's the year Ineos hand over the reins, G has looked pretty average in the lead up and Arensmen or Sheffield if he starts should be their guys.

The support riders might be going great guns, but Ben O'Connor is still Ben O'Connor - a rider who is nowhere near the top flight of GC contenders. Don't get me wrong, he's an honest trier, who should be taking his opportunities whenever he can get into the breakaway. But he's never been capable of going with the main men when the roads go skywards.

The one time he did achieve a podium, it was on the back of taking 6 minutes in a breakaway, as a completely unknown rider. Now he's a known quantity, and they don't let him go unless he's already lost a lot of time (which he invariably does).

 

[eth-dog]

The Giro podium is wide open. There isn't really anyone that is more than a usual top 10 chance. Uijtedbroeks could be the guy

 

[yaco55]

Plapp and Dundar are riding Romandie - Very interested in seeing how Plapp goes in the ITT - There is a possibility that if Dunbar is not at the level he will be reserved for the TDF - Ewan will ride Eisborn Frankfurt three days before the Giro.

 

[eth-dog]

Who wins Romandie? Bernal, Hindley and Carapaz should be favourites IMO.

 

[Vader]

Who wins Romandie? Bernal, Hindley and Carapaz should be favourites IMO.

Not Hindley, if the results of LBL are anything to go by. Bernal & Carapaz finished in the MvdP group, 2:02 behind Pog. Hindley was a looong way behind, finishing in 52nd at 12:11.

 

[eth-dog]

Not Hindley, if the results of LBL are anything to go by. Bernal & Carapaz finished in the MvdP group, 2:02 behind Pog. Hindley was a looong way behind, finishing in 52nd at 12:11.

Hindley has never finished top 10 in a WT one day race ever, so I don't put too much stock in that. He finished 5th in Valenciana around 30 seconds back from McNulty and 3rd in TA around 90 seconds back from Jonas. Bernal has a 3rd in Catalunya (5 minutes behind Pog) and a 7th in Paris Nice (4 minutes back from Jorgensen).

Carapaz only has one top 10 stage race this year haha so might have to rethink that

 

[Vader]

Hindley has never finished top 10 in a WT one day race ever, so I don't put too much stock in that. He finished 5th in Valenciana around 30 seconds back from McNulty and 3rd in TA around 90 seconds back from Jonas. Bernal has a 3rd in Catalunya (5 minutes behind Pog) and a 7th in Paris Nice (4 minutes back from Jorgensen).

Carapaz only has one top 10 stage race this year haha so might have to rethink that

Must admit that I don't pay too much attention to a lot of races. So far this year I've watched Milan San-Remo, Roubaix, Flanders, Amstel Gold, Fleche Wallonne, and LBL. Not sure why I didn't get to see Strade Bianchi.

I don't tend to pay too much attention to the sem-Classics or most of the smaller tours, other than the Grand Tours.

 

[eth-dog]

Must admit that I don't pay too much attention to a lot of races. So far this year I've watched Milan San-Remo, Roubaix, Flanders, Amstel Gold, Fleche Wallonne, and LBL. Not sure why I didn't get to see Strade Bianchi.

I don't tend to pay too much attention to the sem-Classics or most of the smaller tours, other than the Grand Tours.

I tend to follow the WT races and the "better" 2.1 races like Valenciana, Andalucia, Tour of the Alps etc.

Strade maybe because you forgot it's a Saturday night race instead of a Sunday?

 

[Vader]

I tend to follow the WT races and the "better" 2.1 races like Valenciana, Andalucia, Tour of the Alps etc.

Strade maybe because you forgot it's a Saturday night race instead of a Sunday?

Possibly... I suspect I just didn't see it in the TV EPG.

 

[Orange Agent]

Who wins Romandie? Bernal, Hindley and Carapaz should be favourites IMO.

Someone from UAE. It will come down to whoever is leading after the TT.

 

[eth-dog]

Only the two pure sprinters here. Will be interesting to see Bennett vs Mads. Bennett should be a bit quicker

 

[eth-dog]

Was anyone else cheering for Bruno towards the end then?

 

[Sleezy]

Been waiting for someone to throw a punch in the CDD, and finally Remco lands one on the chin in the timetrial.

We really have been spoilt by Pogi, going for the throat from stage 1 haha.

 

[eth-dog]

Been waiting for someone to throw a punch in the CDD, and finally Remco lands one on the chin in the timetrial.

We really have been spoilt by Pogi, going for the throat from stage 1 haha.

I thought I responded to this but obviously not! We kind of expected that from Remco, just as we expected today from Roglic. Remco's climbing legs aren't there yet. Roglic should win it from here purely because the one rider in the same class as him isn't there yet.

The real shock is how easily Geoghegan Hart fell off the back. And how well Callum Scotson is riding, that came from nowhere.

 

[Orange Agent]

Bora teamwork looking the goods for the TDF. Didn't think the Vlasov/Rog 1-2 punch would be this effective. UAE will have the numbers in the mountains to counter it in the Tour but at least it's something, the rest are looking a bit off. Don't know what is happening with Kuss this year, maybe still drunk from the Vuelta celebrations.

 

[eth-dog]

Notes for the big 4 teams from my perspective:

Bora are working well. Hindley's form is a little concerning but their balance looks right with Danny Van Poppel as the addition to this squad for the Tour. Vlasov is going really well, as are Sobrero and Jungels. Denz and Haller did a good job on the flat as well.

UAE is tough to read. Ayuso crashed out badly, Sivakov, Soler and Politt look strong so far. Almeida and Yates are riding the Suisse, I'm guessing Hirschi and Fisher-Black are potentially trying to get Ayuso's spot as well. I still feel like they're climber heavy still, need more flatland guys.

Visma-LAB are in trouble. Jorgensen looks the second strongest in the Dauphine and is a genuine top 5 chance if Jonas can't compete. Kuss looks burnt out. Bowman should get one of the spare spots with his form. But still, no Jonas is concerning.

Soudal-Quickstep are worse. Their climbers are in shit form apart from Landa. Van Wilder was going okay, but the crash was bad. They'll be hoping Vervaeke can show some form in the TDS, especially since they're a bit overfilled on flatland specialists. I think they have to add Hirt, even though he just rode the Giro.

Overall, I feel like it's UAE and Bora in the best position

 

[Sleezy]

Just caught up with the final stage of the CDD. Roglic was very very lucky to get away with that. Almost coughed it up with 5kms to go.

Seems like the tour will go something like:

Tier 1:

• Jonas: will he be fit?
• Tadej: will he be too tired?

Tier 2:
- Can any of Primoz, Rodriguez, Remco, Jorgenson or the Yates twins be consistent enough to challenge the big two if their fitness comes brings them back to the pack? Doesn't really look like it at the moment.

 

[eth-dog]

Just caught up with the final stage of the CDD. Roglic was very very lucky to get away with that. Almost coughed it up with 5kms to go.

Seems like the tour will go something like:

Tier 1:

• Jonas: will he be fit?
• Tadej: will he be too tired?

Tier 2:
- Can any of Primoz, Rodriguez, Remco, Jorgenson or the Yates twins be consistent enough to challenge the big two if their fitness comes brings them back to the pack? Doesn't really look like it at the moment.

Rogliç is better than all you've listed. He and Remco are tier 1.5 at worst if you consider Rodriguez, Jorgensen, Yates x2 etc to be tier 1.

 

[Sleezy]

Rogliç is better than all you've listed. He and Remco are tier 1.5 at worst if you consider Rodriguez, Jorgensen, Yates x2 etc to be tier 1.

If he wasn't coming back from injury I'd agree. He certainly didn't look a level above, though, when Rodriguez, Jorgenson and Gee rode away from him on that last climb.