2024 Ladder Prediction

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freo1

freo1

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Jul 19, 2006
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Fremantle
So looking towards our next season, as we always seem to do during September of most years, where do we think we'll finish?

I remember at this time last year I thought we could finish the 2023 season anywhere between 10th and 5th, based on losing players (experience), getting a tougher fixture and the change in other teams etc.

I think that similarly, season 2024 will be quite open for us and i'll again predict that we'll finish anywhere from 5th - 10th. If we lose the opening several rounds though (say if we lose 4 of the first 6 games), I think the heat will come on JL and there's the risk of a horribly low finish with JL losing his job mid season. Whilst I think we'll improve, lots of other clubs are in the same boat, so there's no guarantee we'll be finals bound. I'm still wary of our size and think our young mids can get beaten up by bigger bodies. Our game this season against GWS was a huge highlight of this. We looked like boys playing against men in that game. I struggle to see us improving massively when compared to other teams who are also improving.

Positives for season 2024
  • We should get a more favourable fixture, based on our lower finish this year
  • Our young players will have another season and another pre-season under their belt so naturally we should expect improvement
  • We should expect better team synergy, particularly with Jackson/Treacy/Amiss

Concerns for season 2024
  • Like any club, injuries are a big concern for us, but particularly up forward. If Amiss goes down we really have no one else. Which is why I think Tabenar is important depth to us. We need to keep him as a depth player. His body cant take a full season anyway, so playing at Peel with the odd gamefor Freo should suite both parties well.
  • Inside mids. Sems Brodie is out of favour and Fyfe injury prone. If Fyfe can stay fit and be a regular sub, that will help immensely. If Brodie can do whatever the coaches want and improve that will be huge, but Johnson and Erasmus are still undersized in there.
  • As much as we'll improve, im concerned that maybe we wont improve as much as some of the other improving teams. Everyone is fighting to get better like we are. When thinking of where we may finish in 2024, a big part of it is to do with other teams and how they'll also improve or decline.

2023 Ladder
1) Collingwood - Will again be a force in 2024
2) Brisbane - Will again be a force in 2024
3) Port Adelaide - Were beaten up (injured) by the end of 2023. I worry how they'll go with some of their big guys being injured a lot and ageing.
4) Melbourne - Could slide. May tire after being up for several seasons. Still have the talent though.
5) Carlton - Interesting, will have a harder draw, could slide, but have a strong young list. Expect to challenge for top 4
6) St Kilda - Would expect a similar season again. Can never write off a RL side. May challenge for top 4
7) GWS - Expect to challenge for top 4
8) Sydney - Competitive as always. Definite final 8 contender
--------------------------
9) Western Bulldogs - Should contest for the 8 but who knows. Beveridge will have drums beating if they dont start the season well
10) Adelaide - Expect to challenge for the 8, but they depend a lot on Taylor Walker
11) Essendon - Hard to pick but you'd expect improvement after a full pre-season under Chris Scott
12) Geelong - Age to finally catch up. They wont be easy beats but probably have a similar season to this year
13) Richmond - Smokey. New coach, always hard to predict. Competitive none the less
14) Fremantle - Hard to pick. Our mids still seem too small/young. If Amiss gets injured we're exposed
15) Gold Coast - Could challenge with Hardwick and the talent they have. I'm tipping a maiden finals appearance
16) Hawthorn - Expect to be more competitive and finish just outside the 8
17) North Melbourne - Same as Hawthorn
18) West Coast - will be another low finish, but much more competitive season

When breaking the teams down, 2024 is already looking to be (in my eyes) a closer season than this year which is quite exciting. It's so hard to pick. I see the weak teams improving, strong teams staying strong, and the mid-tier teams very hard to predict. We're in that mid-tier bracket for mine, but very unpredictable. Injuries, even more than usual, will play a massive part on the success of all teams. The 2024 fixture will be super significant, but my prediction for the 2024 season is:

2024 Prediction
1) Brisbane - My prediction to be 2023 Premiers. So hard to beat at the Gabba, so they'll again be up there
2) GWS - Super impressed with them this season. See them being really hard to beat at home and will be a force in 2024
3) Collingwood - still young and hard to beat. I wonder if they may lose some of those 50/50 games but will again challenge
4) Carlton - Still young and improving so would expect them to stay up, as long as they dont get ahead of themselves
5) Sydney - Can't write these guys off. Young and improving and with no Buddy, a bit unpredictable which is a good thing
6) St Kilda - Another pre-season under Ross, they'll be competitive. Injuries critical
7) Adelaide - Were close in 2023. If they can fix their away games they'll be tough to leave out of the 8
8) Gold Coast - have to improve under Hardwick and i think they will.
-------------------------
9) Essendon - Could easily be in the 8 and will be much tougher under a full pre-season from Chris Scott
10) Fremantle - Who knows!
11) Melbourne - I think they'll tire and slide. Still super talented but i think the heartbrake of the last 2 finals series will get them
12) Port Adelaide - Super talented, should finish higher, but I worry their big guys are getting on a bit.
13) Richmond - Unpredictable with the new coach but may need to re-load
14) Hawthorn - Could finish much higher, but in a similar boat to Freo with being so young
15) Western Bulldogs - Who knows. So talented, such a gun forward line, but i worry Beveridge has done his time there now
16) Geelong - Age to catch up. Still super competitive but may need to re-load
17) North Melbourne - Could easily finish higher. Definitely much more competitive.
18) West Coast - Won't be the easy beats and will upset a few teams but hard to see them getting off the bottom.

I found predicting this ladder for 2024 super hard. I've no problems admitting that i'm likely way off in my predictions!
 
Last edited:
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s_wd6 said:
5th or 6th. That way we hub in Melbourne during finals and Serong can accept his Brownlow in person before going on to hold up that premiership cup with a norm smith and premiership medal around his neck the following weekend.
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**** that. 1st and they can move the Brownlow to Perth.
 
Joao said:
**** that. 1st and they can move the Brownlow to Perth.
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This would be great.
Imagine the melts if 2x clubs from the same non-VIC state were in the GF, and requested the brownlow be held locally to accommodate them.
 
good and detailed OP.
If we lose Darcy and Henry and bring in nothing of note, I’m not sure how anyone would predict anything other than bottom 5 again. Teams like Sydney are improving their lists substantially this off season while we are just relying on organic growth.
We are back to asking David Walls to pull more rabbits from the hat to just keep ups with the pace of improvement in other clubs. We have the BEST draft recruiter in the AFL yet still struggle to compete with the top sides 🤷‍♂️

I’d love to see what the club expect for next year. Does the board expect JL to deliver finals? Or Will bottom 6 suffice. Wish a journo would ask Garlick or bell what we expect for next year specifically.
 
Joao said:
Depends on who you ask. Most here think finals or he's gone.

I think he can get away with about the same as this year but would enter 2025 under pressure.
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I hope he's gone mid year if we don't show that we are a considerable improvement on 2023. Perhaps that's harsh but if we want to win a premiership I don't think you can stuff around hoping things might get better. Before you know it the list will be past its prime for an incoming coach and it will be time for a sigh rebuild.
 
DocT said:
I hope he's gone mid year if we don't show that we are a considerable improvement on 2023. Perhaps that's harsh but if we want to win a premiership I don't think you can stuff around hoping things might get better. Before you know it the list will be past its prime for an incoming coach and it will be time for a sigh rebuild.
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This is why I think people are going to get a shock when this doesn't happen.

We are absolutely nowhere near the point of needing a new rebuild. Look at our DOIG top 10

Caleb Serong – 222
Andrew Brayshaw – 179
Luke Ryan – 167
Luke Jackson – 158
Hayden Young - 140
Lachie Schultz, Sam Switkowski – 139
Alex Pearce – 134
Brennan Cox – 117
Michael Frederick - 112

There are 3 players over 25 - and literally none over 28. The 2 oldest are AP and Ryan. Replacing Ryan would be difficult but I think AP would be doable if planned ahead (Davies etc).


I think if you want to point a finger at someone for not performing next year (if it happens), look at the list management team for letting a 10 player turnover, including 5+ experienced players happen last year. That is the issue - we're too young again, literally the opposite of what you're saying.
 

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Joao said:
Depends on who you ask. Most here think finals or he's gone.

I think he can get away with about the same as this year but would enter 2025 under pressure.
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We can't have another year like this.

I am prepared to give JL some slack for the shitshow this year some of the great teams like Geelong 2006, Richmond 2016 had down years after finals then risen up and started a dynasty.

Backing up an underperformed season with another means you are just settling for mediocrity.

Get us to the finals he is sweet. Like in reality our away form has been quite good the past 2 years. We have tossed away a shitload of home games which should be a fortress.

Win 10 games from 12 at home and half your away game your basically top 4.
 
I predict we'll be in top 4 territory. I have a feeling we're about to click, for reals this time.

Amiss to kick 60, Brayshaw to be back to this MVP best, Serong to go another level and dominate the Brownlow. I think we'll have the wings covered just fine. Chapman will be like another top 10 recruit but with a couple of pre-seasons under his belt. Jackson to dominate and win games off his own boot. Young to get settled in the middle as well. Fyfe a wildcard (super sub?).

I think it's mental and attitude based - for example, if we fix the first quarter slow starts alone, we'd have been top 4 this year. There were a couple of blowouts which I think is also based on those slow starts mixed with a combo of youth and mental weakness. Strong leadership is required but we have the cattle, on every line.

Maybe this is the purple glasses talking but it does feel like the strongest/most even list we've ever had. I didn't even mention Johnson and Erasmus.
 
BStaff17 said:
We can't have another year like this.

I am prepared to give JL some slack for the shitshow this year some of the great teams like Geelong 2006, Richmond 2016 had down years after finals then risen up and started a dynasty.

Backing up an underperformed season with another means you are just settling for mediocrity.

Get us to the finals he is sweet. Like in reality our away form has been quite good the past 2 years. We have tossed away a shitload of home games which should be a fortress.

Win 10 games from 12 at home and half your away game your basically top 4.
Click to expand...

But the list demographics don't support this expectation. I'm not sure why we'd be an exception to having such a young team be successful?

The only argument I think you can make is that we have so few 28+ players that we don't have 250 game 33yo to distort the stats. Most of our players are actually around 24 years and about 70 games that our average indicates. I haven't done (and won't be doing) the maths, but I suspect the standard deviation of our group is much less than teams with similar averages. If that is true, then you'd expect us to explode as the majority cross into the 100+ games which would happen in 2024 or 2025 for most, injuries permitting. Again, I don't have any stats to back that up.

prpl_jss said:
I predict we'll be in top 4 territory. I have a feeling we're about to click, for reals this time.

Amiss to kick 60, Brayshaw to be back to this MVP best, Serong to go another level and dominate the Brownlow. I think we'll have the wings covered just fine. Chapman will be like another top 10 recruit but with a couple of pre-seasons under his belt. Jackson to dominate and win games off his own boot. Young to get settled in the middle as well. Fyfe a wildcard (super sub?).

I think it's mental and attitude based - for example, if we fix the first quarter slow starts alone, we'd have been top 4 this year. There were a couple of blowouts which I think is also based on those slow starts mixed with a combo of youth and mental weakness. Strong leadership is required but we have the cattle, on every line.

Maybe this is the purple glasses talking but it does feel like the strongest/most even list we've ever had. I didn't even mention Johnson and Erasmus.
Click to expand...

No question in my mind this is the best group we've assembled. I was worried about our top end initially but I think Amiss and Jackson mostly fix that. We'll be a juggernaut at some point.

I don't have a heap of confidence that is next year though.
 
I know there is an air of mild annoyance among some on here that a few of us might be seen to be a bit hard on the club and JL after this season.
But it’s founded on what is actually required to win a flag. Let’s take brisbane lions, a club we are not a million miles from in terms of similarity but maybe say, 5 years behind? For brisbane 2018 - see freo 2023.
We would all like to think we are in a similar position to brisbane in 2018, just primed to embark on a run of 5 or more deep finals campaigns in a row from the bottom half of the ladder, culminating in tomorrows GF appearance.

I went back and had a look at what Brisbanes team was for the last finals game they played in season 2019, the first year they emerged, 4 years ago. A qualifying final defeat to GWS.

Just 12 of the 22 players that started that game are playing on Sunday. Almost half the team has been changed or upgraded since the 2019 qualifying final.
The reason this change has taken place for them is because many of the players they had then and since have simply not been good enough and were replaced by better players.

There is this theory that most of our list is in set and forget mode for the next 5 years. History repeatedly shows that’s not the case. In my opinion we have some way to go to get near the parts required to win a flag. We haven’t even started properly competing in finals yet. We will need to continuously upgrade and trade in pieces over a 3 or 4 year period to actually climb the mountain.
The game has changed dramatically since 2013 when we last competed. Player movement is just exponentially greater nowadays and big Melbourne clubs have been able to effectively break the system and top up, extending their flag windows far and away beyond that they would naturally be if it was still the early 2000s and the old rigid national draft system was in place.
 
s_wd6 said:
If we need to get anywhere close we need to fix up our home form. It’s ridiculously poor. Quite interesting hearing from the coach that our game plan suits better to a grounds like Geelong. You’d think you’d base your game plan around the oval you’ll be playing the most games on.
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Agree

I also think you're better basing your game plan on the ground where the grand final is. I'm a Ross Lyon fan, but his system was to energy depriving to cover the MCG expanses i believe.
 
freo1 said:
Agree

I also think you're better basing your game plan on the ground where the grand final is. I'm a Ross Lyon fan, but his system was to energy depriving to cover the MCG expanses i believe.
Click to expand...
We didn't lose that game for being tired.
 
Joao said:
This is why I think people are going to get a shock when this doesn't happen.

We are absolutely nowhere near the point of needing a new rebuild. Look at our DOIG top 10

Caleb Serong – 222
Andrew Brayshaw – 179
Luke Ryan – 167
Luke Jackson – 158
Hayden Young - 140
Lachie Schultz, Sam Switkowski – 139
Alex Pearce – 134
Brennan Cox – 117
Michael Frederick - 112

There are 3 players over 25 - and literally none over 28. The 2 oldest are AP and Ryan. Replacing Ryan would be difficult but I think AP would be doable if planned ahead (Davies etc).


I think if you want to point a finger at someone for not performing next year (if it happens), look at the list management team for letting a 10 player turnover, including 5+ experienced players happen last year. That is the issue - we're too young again, literally the opposite of what you're saying.
Click to expand...
Agreed. But perhaps I wasn't clear. I was commenting on persisting with an underperforming coach, not suggesting a rebuild is imminently required. 2024 is Longmuir's 5th year. If we are not clearly a firm top 8 side by middle of next year, with the players and time he has had available, then I think he should go. If he doesn't then I think it means the club is persisting with a setup that is unlikely to take us to the top. Such reluctance to take decisive action would indicate further indesicion/mediocrity - what else would it suggest? Then, by the time they do get around to finding a new coach and the players learn the new system - would that be another 2-3 years minimum? So then we're looking at 2027-28. And many of our current young guns are past their peak. And we're looking at a sigh rebuild. Will it play out like that? No, I hope not. But I think the team underperformed this year and if it can't be fixed fast then we are wasting time persisting with JL and his set-up.
 
DocT said:
Agreed. But perhaps I wasn't clear. I was commenting on persisting with an underperforming coach, not suggesting a rebuild is imminently required. 2024 is Longmuir's 5th year. If we are not clearly a firm top 8 side by middle of next year, with the players and time he has had available, then I think he should go. If he doesn't then I think it means the club is persisting with a setup that is unlikely to take us to the top. Such reluctance to take decisive action would indicate further indesicion/mediocrity - what else would it suggest? Then, by the time they do get around to finding a new coach and the players learn the new system - would that be another 2-3 years minimum? So then we're looking at 2027-28. And many of our current young guns are past their peak. And we're looking at a sigh rebuild. Will it play out like that? No, I hope not. But I think the team underperformed this year and if it can't be fixed fast then we are wasting time persisting with JL and his set-up.
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It suggests to me that you don't appreciate that the team improvement isn't linear, it can take longer than you think and it doesn't follow a path that is acceptable to some/most fans. Fans are irrationally impatient because they think their team is special and it's not. JL showed last year that he can coach and the whole club messaging all year has been that "we got young" which tells you the admin knew we'd probably go backwards. I'm sure they hoped we wouldn't but they knew we could.


And there are multiple current examples of a new coach getting a team humming within a season (Pies and GWS) so the idea it would take a competent coach 2-3 years is just wrong. Even Voss got something happening after 18 months and AFAIC, he's not that good.

And even if it took until 27-28, the majority of our players would literally be just starting or at their peaks. It would only be Walters, Pearce, Aish and Ryan that might be past it. Maybe Switta too on account of soft tissue.
 
88mph said:
Someone here (sorry I forget who) detailed Jlo needs a prelim or bust.

Stats show without a prelim he's a failed coach.
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I disagreed with this at the time it was said and still do. He’s already proven he can take an average at best team to a semi final. To increase the level of talent on the list the club has made a conscious decision to lose some experience. That sets any coach back two years at least and I’m sure the club are fully aware of this.
Unless we are completely non-competitive next year and show no signs of improvement plus player discontent etc, a lot of people on here are going to be disappointed because the coach is going nowhere IMO.
My expectation for next season is 6-10th with a strong foundation in place for a serious crack from 2025 - 2030.
 
Joao said:
It suggests to me that you don't appreciate that the team improvement isn't linear, it can take longer than you think and it doesn't follow a path that is acceptable to some/most fans. Fans are irrationally impatient because they think their team is special and it's not. JL showed last year that he can coach and the whole club messaging all year has been that "we got young" which tells you the admin knew we'd probably go backwards. I'm sure they hoped we wouldn't but they knew we could.


And there are multiple current examples of a new coach getting a team humming within a season (Pies and GWS) so the idea it would take a competent coach 2-3 years is just wrong. Even Voss got something happening after 18 months and AFAIC, he's not that good.

And even if it took until 27-28, the majority of our players would literally be just starting or at their peaks. It would only be Walters, Pearce, Aish and Ryan that might be past it. Maybe Switta too on account of soft tissue.
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Thx for the reply and your valid observations and points. We differ on the weight we place on them. If I am mistaken it's not because I think development is linear. It's also not because I'm unaware that there are examples of teams/coaches taking a long time to achieve the ultimate (hello Hardwick) or conversely first year coaches to blow it out of the park (come on down Kingsley and McRae). It's just that I think these examples don't represent the big majority, they're exceptional. That's why they come to mind so easily and are awarded coach of the year etc. In planning for the future you must play the averages and not hope that an outsider will come to your rescue. To restate my original point, with the personnel he has available, if 1/2 way through JLs 5th year we are not looking like a firm top-8 team then I think time should be called on the experiment, enough data is in to make that call. I think that is a realistic position. FWIW I actually think we will be a firm top-8 by mid 2024 because I think JL is a good coach and his main weakness will be covered by getting more mongrel into the leadership team. Let's go Caleb.
 

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