2024 Ladder Predictions

[#1JohnHuttonFan]

Congrats on scraping back into the 8 after being the lucky team who got to play Melbourne in their "sold" home game which they never turn up for.

Facts are Fremantle's track record is awful and ladder position is flattered by a very favourable draw. Best result of the year was a draw at home against a depleted Collingwood. Yet to beat any top 8 sides. Not a single one.

Fremantle will win 3 more games for the rest of the year. And that includes a very generous assumption that they beat the Eagles in the second derby despite getting flogged last time.

Enjoy the bye - big reality check coming next week.

Hahahaha hilarious coming from a Carlton supporter I really don’t think anyone takes anything you guys say seriously being the biggest most embarrassing cheats in AFL HISTORY. We will see buddy. We will see. I for one would not be scared of facing you guys in the finals if we get there. Especially since your best goal kicker Curnow usually chokes it up comes September. Maybe see ya then.


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[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Hahahaha hilarious coming from a Carlton supporter I really don’t think anyone takes anything you guys say seriously being the biggest most embarrassing cheats in AFL HISTORY. We will see buddy. We will see. I for one would not be scared of facing you guys in the finals if we get there. Especially since your best goal kicker Curnow usually chokes it up comes September. Maybe see ya then.


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There's another club that has been found guilty of breaching the cap in a flag year and also for systemic drug cheating.

 

[Fadge]

When there's a clear top team that appears to be a level above everyone else, how often does that team go on to win the flag?
I have a feeling that more often than not, that team either fails to make the GF or loses the GF.

Wishful thinking.

Geelong 2007 - Flag
Geelong 2008 - Runner Up
Geelong/Saints 2009 - Flag and Runner up
Collingwood 2010 - Flag
Collingwood/Geelong 2011 - Runner up and Flag
Hawthorn 2013 - Flag
Richmond 2018 - Mason Cox'd
Geelong 2022 - Flag
Collingwood 2023 - Flag

 

[hawkman]

Wishful thinking.

Geelong 2007 - Flag
Geelong 2008 - Runner Up
Geelong/Saints 2009 - Flag and Runner up
Collingwood 2010 - Flag
Collingwood/Geelong 2011 - Runner up and Flag
Hawthorn 2013 - Flag
Richmond 2018 - Mason Cox'd
Geelong 2022 - Flag
Collingwood 2023 - Flag

Geelong were only 4th in 2022 after 12 rounds

Geelong in 2019 were 2 games clear after 12 rounds and lost on the prelim
Fremantle in 2015 were 2 games clear after round 13 and lost the prelim
Port in 2014 were 2 games clear after round 12 and lost the prelim

 

[Fadge]

Geelong were only 4th in 2022 after 12 rounds

Geelong in 2019 were 2 games clear after 12 rounds and lost on the prelim
Fremantle in 2015 were 2 games clear after round 13 and lost the prelim
Port in 2014 were 2 games clear after round 12 and lost the prelim

I like to work in full home and away seasons when we refer to 'clear top teams'...

Not midway through when some teams have played both bottom two teams who have a single victory between them, whilst others haven't played either (for example)

 

[hawkman]

I like to work in full home and away seasons when we refer to 'clear top teams'...

Not midway through when some teams have played both bottom two teams who have a single victory between them, whilst others haven't played either (for example)

Sydney can't be called a clear top team on that measure then at this stage. They may end up being one by the end of the season though.
However, there have been a number of teams that have been clearly the best team at halfway during the season that have dropped away by the end of the season

 

[Fadge]

Sydney can't be called a clear top team on that measure then at this stage. They may end up being one by the end of the season though.
However, there have been a number of teams that have been clearly the best team at halfway during the season that have dropped away by the end of the season

Always got to reserve judgement when declaring 'clear top teams' and 'contenders'.

12 games with 4 months of the season to go is way too early. Far too much can change in that time.

 

[Handyandy]

i didnt predict adelaide to finish top 4, but handy was saying anyone who does is an idiot

Looking like a pretty fair call now

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Looking like a pretty fair call now

Not really, teams have big rises and falls every season , and no can consistently predict which ones it will be.

I think it’s pretty funny that you felt the need to come to this comment after 7 months

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

i cant take anybody posting about carlton improving then throwing elijah hollands name out there seriously

vfl level player

HMMMMMM

 

[Art Vandelay_]

In cricket parlance this ladder has a long tail.
Starts at 2.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Congrats on scraping back into the 8 after being the lucky team who got to play Melbourne in their "sold" home game which they never turn up for.

Facts are Fremantle's track record is awful and ladder position is flattered by a very favourable draw. Best result of the year was a draw at home against a depleted Collingwood. Yet to beat any top 8 sides. Not a single one.

Fremantle will win 3 more games for the rest of the year. And that includes a very generous assumption that they beat the Eagles in the second derby despite getting flogged last time.

Enjoy the bye - big reality check coming next week.

Carlton supporter trying to school oppo supporter on 'track records'

LMFAO

 

[yibbida]

this is ladder predictors "autotip"

7 wins ey? can't see it

How are Sydney doing to lose 7 games this year? lol.

Games to come:

Home games against Freo, North, Bulldogs, Pies, Crows
Away games against Crows, Giants, Saints (Marvel), Lions, Port, Essendon (Marvel).

The only thing that will stop them winning the GF is the only time they will play at the MCG for the rest of the year will be the Grand Final.

 

[HotPiesWithSauce]

This was really difficult and I will most likely be way off, I'm more just going off a vibe than anything. I look forward to having a giggle mid season when I see how wrong these predictions are

Sydney - possible recency bias, really like their additions
Brisbane - can't see much reason for them to fall, haven't lost much and have good combination of youth and stars
Carlton - this is more an indicator of where they should finish with their list, historically though, they tend to disappoint
Port - another team where I like their additions, but the supporter base is so toxic I can't see them achieving success in the near future
Collingwood - back-to-back is really hard, we'll be the hunted, and also I like to moderate my expectations
GWS - yes they looked great at the end of the year, but expect teams to do their homework in the off season
Essendon - they have to improve eventually right? I thought they had a really tough draw the first half of the year, if they get an easier run at it, who knows?
Crows - unlikely to get a dream run with injuries again, but should improve if they can avoid their victim mentality

Saints - they were found out this year, but also managed to win despite some key injuries, really hard to place them
Bulldogs - a really good list but I think they needed a new head coach if they were to improve
Melbourne - they just seem to me like a club ready to implode
Gold Coast - really tough to call, have a really exciting list and now have the coach to match, but I've seen them drop away in the second half of the season too many times
Richmond - need to play the youth and take some short term pain for long term gain. New coach buys them a couple seasons out of finals
Hawks - really impressed me how they finished off the season but I'm hesitant to buy into the hype too much
Eagles - eventually they are going to have some luck with injuries and the games they've put into their youngsters are going to start paying off. Taking a shot in the dark and saying that they surprise a few next year
Geelong - Geelong fans are optimistic and rightfully so, the cats never seem to bottom out. But for me, they look headed toward a cliff, without the quality youth to save them this time
Freo - were really disappointing this year and they only got worse in the trade period, can't see them doing well
North - have done the right thing and went the cull, I think I heard somewhere that they don't have anyone on their list over 25? Anyway, next year will be an investment year and they will be better for it

Well I guess it's roughly mid season, so I might revisit my predictions
1. Predicted Sydney
Actual position half way- 1
So far I'm spot on with this prediction, and the addition of Grundy has had a lot to do with their success, and to a far lesser extent, so has Adams.

2. Predicted Brisbane
APHW - 13
Way off on this one, can still see them make the 8 but second is a stretch. Some key injuries and woeful form at home hasn't helped.

3. Predicted Carlton
APHW - 2
Looking good with this one, have performed well despite injuries, and I still don't think they've reached their potential.

4. Predicted Port
APHW - 4
This prediction is tracking well, port aren't looking as well oiled as they did at times last year, yet their supporter base seems to have eased up a little at attacking their own, seem a little more fixated on apparent "Vic bias" rn.

5. Predicted Collingwood
APHW - 6
Early in the season I didn't even think we could make the 8 any more, but we've proven resilient, I don't think fifth or even top 4 is out of reach.

6. Predicted GWS
APHW - 8
I predicted they'd slide, and considering they're a game behind a lot of other teams, 6th is either pretty close or pretty far.

7. Predicted Essendon
APHW - 3
I thought they would do better this season, and they have so far. An easier draw has certainly helped.

8. Predicted Adelaide
APHW - 15
I would say one of my worst predictions. Crows are terrible, just terrible, but in my defence I said "should improve if they can avoid their victim mentality" which they haven't. The club won't ever improve if they don't take responsibility for their failures.

9. Predicted St Kilda
APHW - 14
Have not been great, but are at least tracking in the right direction to finish 9th, so I could still be close with this one.

10. Predicted Bulldogs
APHW - 11
Will probably finish around here, have been fairly predictable. Will win some games they should lose and vice versa.

11. Predicted Melbourne
APHW - 10
Another close one, can't see them getting much higher than this by the end of the year.

12. Predicted Gold Coast
APHW - 9
Have been a real surprise packet, need to learn to win away games. I did say in my prediction that they tend to drop away, and still might.

13. Predicted Richmond
APHW - 17
I said they need to play the youth, didn't realise that it would be due to devastating injuries though.

14. Predicted Hawthorn
APHW - 12
Playing really well, and on form I'll have probably underestimated them by year's end.

15. Predicted West Coast
APHW - 16
Doing well with this one, they've surprised a few, and will probably win a couple more when Harley returns.

16. Predicted Geelong
APHW - 5
Pretty shocking prediction, though I had no idea they'd have such a favourable early draw, but also to their credit they won what they should have. Form in their last 5 or 6 games a bit more indicative of what I expected.

17. Predicted Fremantle
APHW - 7
This is my worst prediction. Freo are playing like a top 8 side and I will have to eat my words at the end of the year.

18. Predicted North
APHW - 18
I mean, fair enough.

 

[DragoDelph]

I think it’s forgotten that Freo were 2.5 wins off 8th spot last year.

People looked at the position, without context.

Everyone was happy to rave about the upside in the hawks, but the younger side that thumped them twice (expect this year to be closer) never got a mention.

———

On the flip side, the crows were nearly a top 8 side, on the back of a career best year from tex. at 30-odd. The chances of that reoccurring were slim.

 

[Jeremias]

I think it’s forgotten that Freo were 2.5 wins off 8th spot last year.

Plus approximately 15%...

 

[JackFlash]

1.

2

Carlton

3.

4.

Half way mark and this is now my prediction for top 4, the rest can't win it and those positions 5-8 will change dramatically between now and the end of the year. I can't see Port, Giants, Freo, Cats or anyone else causing much trouble to the top 4, but make no mistake The Swans are light years ahead of everyone. They would have to have a serious hiccup not to win this year's flag.

 

[RUNVS]

1.

2

Carlton

3.

4.

Half way mark and this is now my prediction for top 4, the rest can't win it and those positions 5-8 will change dramatically between now and the end of the year. I can't see Port, Giants, Freo, Cats or anyone else causing much trouble to the top 4, but make no mistake The Swans are light years ahead of everyone. They would have to have a serious hiccup not to win this year's flag.

Swans are experts at serious hiccups in Grand Finals.

 

[Troystenvic]

Swans are experts at serious hiccups in Grand Finals.

Yep, we get better at it every time too.

With a top 4 full of Vic sides we are guaranteed a loss on GF Day,

All those other 3 stories are gross. Can't imagine Essendon winning! fans would be insufferable, Carlton fans would call it The Carlton Football league and Pies B2B is unbearable

We got to get there first

 

[Wolfgang West]

Swans shot themselves in the foot 2014 & 2022. Like I’ve said before It’s a patch of green grass with 4 white posts at either end. Turn up on the day and be the best team on the day. GF is at the MCG and that is where it should be. Would we like to play there more during the year ? 100 percent. Would we like to be there on the day and get some unbiased officiating not favouring a Vic team that may be the opposition ? 1000 percent. Firstly we need to make it, not worry about ground familiarity, crowd noise or any other BS, stop the ****ing crying, be grateful we are there and be better for longer for 100 minutes of the day and that’s all she wrote. It can be done.

 

[Cuzz09]

How are Sydney doing to lose 7 games this year? lol.

Games to come:

Home games against Freo, North, Bulldogs, Pies, Crows
Away games against Crows, Giants, Saints (Marvel), Lions, Port, Essendon (Marvel).

The only thing that will stop them winning the GF is the only time they will play at the MCG for the rest of the year will be the Grand Final.

I think they could lose v Adel, GWS, bris, Port and Ess

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[Strapping Young Lad]

I think it’s forgotten that Freo were 2.5 wins off 8th spot last year.

People looked at the position, without context.

Everyone was happy to rave about the upside in the hawks, but the younger side that thumped them twice (expect this year to be closer) never got a mention.

———

On the flip side, the crows were nearly a top 8 side, on the back of a career best year from tex. at 30-odd. The chances of that reoccurring were slim.

The irony is you just did exactly that.

Every team belted Hawthorn early in 2023, and the other game was a dead rubber in the last round of the season.

 

[DragoDelph]

The irony is you just did exactly that.

Every team belted Hawthorn early in 2023, and the other game was a dead rubber in the last round of the season.

The position was bad, the wins column wasn’t. Last season was as tight as this season.

I used hawthorn as an example. You were “the exciting new thing” despite being beaten by a younger team. Home and away.

It wasn’t a knock on hawthorn, you don’t need a big gotcha moment to feel good.

It was highlighting the difference in perception between Freo and Adelaide and everyone’s preseason predictions of both clubs. And reasons why they were so reversed.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The position was bad, the wins column wasn’t. Last season was as tight as this season.

I used hawthorn as an example. You were “the exciting new thing” despite being beaten by a younger team. Home and away.

It wasn’t a knock on hawthorn, you don’t need a big gotcha moment to feel good.

It was highlighting the difference in perception between Freo and Adelaide and everyone’s preseason predictions of both clubs. And reasons why they were so reversed.

I was just providing context.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Geelong were only 4th in 2022 after 12 rounds

Geelong in 2019 were 2 games clear after 12 rounds and lost on the prelim
Fremantle in 2015 were 2 games clear after round 13 and lost the prelim
Port in 2014 were 2 games clear after round 12 and lost the prelim

Yeah, I probably should have specified "at the halfway point", but I thought that was implied given that we are pretty much AT the halfway point and everyone is calling Swans the clear standout team.
I also said A clear standout team. It's skews the stats and is a bit disingenuous to include years where there's 2 standout teams. There isn't always a standout team every year.