2024 Ladder Predictions

[EBERT THE KING]

Motlop kicked 24 goals from 21 games .Jamie Cipps kicked 16 goals from 12 games and averaged 3 more disposals then Motlop in a side where the ball hardly went into the forward line.My point is every team even the Eagles have better small forwards then Carlton and why Collingwood and Brisbane played the grand final.Can Carlton's small forwards step up because relying on Curnow and Mckay will unlikely win a premiership.

And Owies kicked 27 from 18 games, so no, West Coast do not have better small forwards.

When your key forwards are combining for 110 goals in the season, theres limited opportunities for your smalls.

No worries at all for Carlton with these two there and Jack Martin as your third option/Toby Greene role, with Jack Silvagni as depth.

Carlton will kick plenty of goals.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Motlop kicked 24 goals from 21 games .Jamie Cipps kicked 16 goals from 12 games and averaged 3 more disposals then Motlop in a side where the ball hardly went into the forward line.My point is every team even the Eagles have better small forwards then Carlton and why Collingwood and Brisbane played the grand final.Can Carlton's small forwards step up because relying on Curnow and Mckay will unlikely win a premiership.

Could be argued about worst in the league but certainly the worst of any finals team in 2023.

If 2 of Motlop, Fantasia, Martin, Owies, Durdin, Fogarty, Cunningham can take a step in 24 then we are probably looking pretty good but I think it's still a hole that needs to be filled come the end of year given the injury history and perceived upside of those players.

Think our best chance of increased scoring is improved output from Walsh, Hollands x2, Cerra and our wings.

 

[Swanssince91]

Motlop kicked 24 goals from 21 games .Jamie Cipps kicked 16 goals from 12 games and averaged 3 more disposals then Motlop in a side where the ball hardly went into the forward line.My point is every team even the Eagles have better small forwards then Carlton and why Collingwood and Brisbane played the grand final.Can Carlton's small forwards step up because relying on Curnow and Mckay will unlikely win a premiership.

Motlop has played 2 seasons, he will only get better

 

[JustaBattler]

People really need to look deeper than a team's top 4 players.

Last year, it was top 5 (and included McKay). But Big H. wouldn't be in the top 100 players in the comp now.

Do you reckon he might squeeze into your top 150 or 200 AFL players?

 

[Fadge]

Do you reckon he might squeeze into your top 150 or 200 AFL players?

He's currently 107th on my list, trending in the wrong direction.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

He's currently 107th on my list, trending in the wrong direction.

I'd love to see the 106 you have before him

 

[adammania9]

Nothing absurd about H McKay not being in the top 100 players at all. 74 goals in 40 games is not the stat line of an elite forward.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Where would Mcstay rank?

 

[JustaBattler]

He's currently 107th on my list, trending in the wrong direction.

So there are 106 CHF /FF players better than Harry McKay ?

 

[Fadge]

So there are 106 CHF /FF players better than Harry McKay ?

No, because it's not what I said.

Keep up.

 

[Fadge]

Where would Mcstay rank?

A fraction worse than Harry, but was trending upwards before his ACL.

Clearly Harry has more runs on the board, but McStay is a proven finals performer as has the versatility as a back-up ruckman.

 

[JustaBattler]

No, because it's not what I said.

Keep up.

No need to be rude I was just asking a question - you seem to very free with your opinions - until someone challenges any aspect of your thinking.

Simple question - who are the other 106 players who can play better than Harry McKay - in the position(s) he is expected to play - or don't you rate him as a top 2 forward in any team in the competition?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

A fraction worse than Harry, but was trending upwards before his ACL.

Clearly Harry has more runs on the board, but McStay is a proven finals performer as has the versatility as a back-up ruckman.

A fraction worse yet in nearly every statistic outside of goal kicking accuracy Harry wins in a landslide... even with the yips Harry averaged the same number of goals a game.

Makes sense...

 

[Fadge]

A fraction worse yet in nearly every statistic outside of goal kicking accuracy Harry wins in a landslide... even with the yips Harry averaged the same number of goals a game.

Makes sense...

McStay played a greater proportion of time in the ruck than McKay. Very different roles.

 

[Fadge]

No need to be rude I was just asking a question - you seem to very free with your opinions - until someone challenges any aspect of your thinking.

Simple question - who are the other 106 players who can play better than Harry McKay - in the position(s) he is expected to play - or don't you rate him as a top 2 forward in any team in the competition?

I don't mind my opinions being challenged.

There are plenty of teams' 'top 2 forwards' who would be outside the top 100 players in the competition.

If Carlton had a high quality small forward, McKay wouldn't be in Carlton's best two forwards.

 

[JustaBattler]

I don't mind my opinions being challenged.

There are plenty of teams' 'top 2 forwards' who would be outside the top 100 players in the competition.

If Carlton had a high quality small forward, McKay wouldn't be in Carlton's best two forwards.

None of that answers the simple questions I've asked you - based on your 'ratings' you seem to have a very firm grasp of every player in the AFl - otherwise you couldn't be so exact with your ratings...

Would be fascinating and amusing to see all the players that Harry McKay is behind based on your 'ratings'

or I guess I could just put this view you have expressed down as just another feeble troll.

Your call.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Some enterprising person should create a dedicated main board thread for a Collingwood-Carlton who is better shit fight. It might be quite popular.
Oh wait, silly me, there already are a few.

 

[Orange crush]

I don't mind my opinions being challenged.

There are plenty of teams' 'top 2 forwards' who would be outside the top 100 players in the competition.

If Carlton had a high quality small forward, McKay wouldn't be in Carlton's best two forwards.

Exactly …. Take the giants as an example. Toby and Daniel’s would both be higher rated as forwards, and on 2023 results so would Hogan.

 

[Worm4]

Where would Mcstay rank?

I have McStay at 347th

 

[Fadge]

None of that answers the simple questions I've asked you - based on your 'ratings' you seem to have a very firm grasp of every player in the AFl - otherwise you couldn't be so exact with your ratings...

Would be fascinating and amusing to see all the players that Harry McKay is behind based on your 'ratings'

or I guess I could just put this view you have expressed down as just another feeble troll.

Your call.

I don't need to provide you with the complete list - instead I'll provide you with the rationale for my ranking of McKay.

As I said before, to be in the top 100 players in the comp, you need to be (on average) in the best 5 to 6 players in one of 18 teams. Another poster referenced West Coast not having 5 of the top 100 players in the comp. I fully agree with this, but why would that mean Carlton get more than their quota?

Carlton's top 5 is indisputable - Curnow, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering and Cerra. Saad and Harry 6 and 7 (in either order)?

Let's look at my team. Players I have ahead of Harry are - N. Daicos, J. De Goey, D. Moore, J. Daicos, I. Quaynor, J. Crisp, S. Pendlebury, T. Mitchell. 8 players. Then there are a further list that are around the same mark as Harry: Maynard, Sidebottom and possibly Hill (has he arrived after a massive finals series?). I have excluded Mihocek, McStay and Elliott.

Let's follow up with Brisbane. Players I have ahead of Harry are - L. Neale, H. Andrews, H. McGluggage, J. Dunkley, C. Cameron, J. Daniher, W. Ashcroft. Those around the same mark as Harry are Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and Coleman (see explanation for Hill). I have excluded Hipwood.

The Doggies top 8 are better than McKay, with another few around the mark.

The list goes on.

It ain't hard to find 100 better players than Harry, assuming you're basing it off of recent downward trending form as opposed to his Coleman Medal winning season...

 

[Arr0w]

I don't need to provide you with the complete list - instead I'll provide you with the rationale for my ranking of McKay.

As I said before, to be in the top 100 players in the comp, you need to be (on average) in the best 5 to 6 players in one of 18 teams. Another poster referenced West Coast not having 5 of the top 100 players in the comp. I fully agree with this, but why would that mean Carlton get more than their quota?

Carlton's top 5 is indisputable - Curnow, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering and Cerra. Saad and Harry 6 and 7 (in either order)?

Let's look at my team. Players I have ahead of Harry are - N. Daicos, J. De Goey, D. Moore, J. Daicos, I. Quaynor, J. Crisp, S. Pendlebury, T. Mitchell. 8 players. Then there are a further list that are around the same mark as Harry: Maynard, Sidebottom and possibly Hill (has he arrived after a massive finals series?). I have excluded Mihocek, McStay and Elliott.

Let's follow up with Brisbane. Players I have ahead of Harry are - L. Neale, H. Andrews, H. McGluggage, J. Dunkley, C. Cameron, J. Daniher, W. Ashcroft. Those around the same mark as Harry are Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and Coleman (see explanation for Hill). I have excluded Hipwood.

The Doggies top 8 are better than McKay, with another few around the mark.

The list goes on.

It ain't hard to find 100 better players than Harry, assuming you're basing it off of recent downward trending form as opposed to his Coleman Medal winning season...

So you haven't done a top 107 players

 

[JustaBattler]

I don't need to provide you with the complete list - instead I'll provide you with the rationale for my ranking of McKay.

As I said before, to be in the top 100 players in the comp, you need to be (on average) in the best 5 to 6 players in one of 18 teams. Another poster referenced West Coast not having 5 of the top 100 players in the comp. I fully agree with this, but why would that mean Carlton get more than their quota?

Carlton's top 5 is indisputable - Curnow, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering and Cerra. Saad and Harry 6 and 7 (in either order)?

Let's look at my team. Players I have ahead of Harry are - N. Daicos, J. De Goey, D. Moore, J. Daicos, I. Quaynor, J. Crisp, S. Pendlebury, T. Mitchell. 8 players. Then there are a further list that are around the same mark as Harry: Maynard, Sidebottom and possibly Hill (has he arrived after a massive finals series?). I have excluded Mihocek, McStay and Elliott.

Let's follow up with Brisbane. Players I have ahead of Harry are - L. Neale, H. Andrews, H. McGluggage, J. Dunkley, C. Cameron, J. Daniher, W. Ashcroft. Those around the same mark as Harry are Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and Coleman (see explanation for Hill). I have excluded Hipwood.

The Doggies top 8 are better than McKay, with another few around the mark.

The list goes on.

It ain't hard to find 100 better players than Harry, assuming you're basing it off of recent downward trending form as opposed to his Coleman Medal winning season...

You are making a very 'strong' assumption in your rationale and that is assuming that the top5-6 players from every team are all (for every team) better than the next best player in any particular team or teams...

(IMO) that is a serious flaw in your rationale and therefore argument.

The second flaw is that you aren't comparing like for like - a CHF/FF isn't a midfielder or defender....you can't 'judge' a player against another player in different positions...(apples and oranges)

eg I rate Neil McCluggage for example- bt harry would win the aerial contest 99/100 times - which is what he is paid to do he isnt paid to be an outside running mid or inside ball getter - although I'd rate Mckay as a faster runner than half the mids you cite.

 

[Fadge]

You are making a very 'strong' assumption in your rationale and that is assuming that the top5-6 players from every team are all (for every team) better than the next best player in any particular team or teams...

(IMO) that is a serious flaw in your rationale...

If you actually read what I have written, that is not what I have assumed.

The second flaw is that you aren't comparing like for like - a CHF/FF isn't a midfielder or defender....you can't 'judge' a player against another player in different positions...(apples and oranges)

eg I rate Neil McCluggage for example- bt harry would win the aerial contest 99/100 times - which is what he is paid to do he isnt paid to be an outside running mid or inside ball getter - although I'd rate Mckay as a faster runner than half the mids you cite.

Huh? WTF?

I can't conclude that Gary Ablett Jr was a better player than Zac Dawson, because Dawson would likely outmark him in an aerial contest?

 

[JustaBattler]

If you actually read what I have written, that is not what I have assumed.

Huh? WTF?

I can't conclude that Gary Ablett Jr was a better player than Zac Dawson, because Dawson would likely outmark him in an aerial contest?

Then you don't understand what you write yourself can't help with that - to say Mckay isnt in the top 100 players is such arrant nonsense and then to suggest a nonsensical rationale assuming that he wouldn't be a top 5-6 player in ANY team therefore he isnt a top100 player and sliding is absolute rubbish and you know it.

As for your second comment ( argument via stretched analogy BS) - Gablett would rate in the top100 by virtue of the fact (if nothing else) he was a top10 mid until late in very late his career.

Give it up and try again with something else some other time.

 

[Fadge]

Then you don't understand what you write yourself can't help with that - to say Mckay isnt in the top 100 players is such arrant nonsense and then to suggest a nonsensical rationale assuming that he wouldn't be a top 5-6 player in ANY team therefore he isnt a top100 player and sliding is absolute rubbish and you know it.

As for your second comment ( argument via stretched analogy BS) - Gablett would rate in the top100 by virtue of the fact (if nothing else) he was a top10 mid until late in very late his career.

Give it up and try again with something else some other time.

Oh my.

What are you on about?