2024 Ladder Predictions

[Mr Meow]

My question is why do you think Geelong will be a better team in 2024 compared to 2023?

I crunched the numbers on this and on average this season Geelong had 5 best 22 players missing and one having an early in game injury that sidelined them. And mostly not fringe players, but Hawkins/Danger/Guthrie/Duncan/Henry/Holmes/Stanley etc. This was massive in comparison to previous Geelong seasons and the two grand finalists this year.

Sydney were actually very affected too and performed a miracle to get their season on track. Availability did improve in the back end of the year though right?

Richmond and West Coast were the other two it hit hard.

I'd say all four of these teams have potential upside in 2024 just based on that.

 

[RUNVS]

I crunched the numbers on this and on average this season Geelong had 5 best 22 players missing and one having an early in game injury that sidelined them. And mostly not fringe players, but Hawkins/Danger/Guthrie/Duncan/Henry/Holmes/Stanley etc. This was massive in comparison to previous Geelong seasons and the two grand finalists this year.

Sydney were actually very affected too and performed a miracle to get their season on track. Availability did improve in the back end of the year though right?

Richmond and West Coast were the other two it hit hard.

I'd say all four of these teams have potential upside in 2024 just based on that.

You do have a good point but the problem is these injuries are to your older players, meaning they are likely not one offs as the older players get the more injuries they get and the longer they are off for. Hawkins has been very durable for most of his career but time affects us all and I think it is quite likely he will get at least one injury in 2024, simply due to his age, as will some of your other older players.

 

[Caligo]

I crunched the numbers on this and on average this season Geelong had 5 best 22 players missing and one having an early in game injury that sidelined them. And mostly not fringe players, but Hawkins/Danger/Guthrie/Duncan/Henry/Holmes/Stanley etc. This was massive in comparison to previous Geelong seasons and the two grand finalists this year.

Sydney were actually very affected too and performed a miracle to get their season on track. Availability did improve in the back end of the year though right?

Richmond and West Coast were the other two it hit hard.

I'd say all four of these teams have potential upside in 2024 just based on that.

I wanted to say what RUNVS said but he already did. WC and Geelong had a fair lump of injuries to over 30s.

 

[Mr Meow]

I wanted to say what RUNVS said but he already did. WC and Geelong had a fair lump of injuries to over 30s.

We'll see. Hawkins, Blicavs and Guthrie had flawless injury runs until this season. It's never just linear with these things. The toll of the year got to players when younger ones like Henry, Stengle, SDK, Holmes and co were copping impact injuries that overlapped with each other. Cameron's injury was just a freak accident.

With Stanley, Rohan, Duncan and Dangerfield - fair enough we will have to manage them carefully and expect them to miss a few. But ideally in a controlled way, not all at the same time plus 3 others.

2022 we had an older list than 2023 and had a dream injury run for the last 4 months of the season.

 

[Caligo]

We'll see. Hawkins, Blicavs and Guthrie had flawless injury runs until this season. It's never just linear with these things. The toll of the year got to players when younger ones like Henry, Stengle, SDK, Holmes and co were copping impact injuries that overlapped with each other. Cameron's injury was just a freak accident.

With Stanley, Rohan, Duncan and Dangerfield - fair enough we will have to manage them carefully and expect them to miss a few. But ideally in a controlled way, not all at the same time plus 3 others.

2022 we had an older list than 2023 and had a dream injury run for the last 4 months of the season.

I absolutely agree with all of that. I can imagine Geelong having another blessed injury run like 2022, I just don't think it is likely. Old teams just get hurt more, but when they don't get hurt, look out (Hawthorn 2015, Geelong 2022).

 

[Waterhouzin]

For the first time in many years I really have no expectation of Freo doing well.
I am however looking forward to deathriding 3 other clubs given we’ve traded all of 2023 into the future!!
A top 3 of Pies, Port, Saints would just be the most Dockery of outcomes….


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Geez a lot of posters putting tigers bottom 4. I’m not all as doom and gloom as that.
Think a fresh coaching team with still a good nucleus of experienced players and some youth will have us thereabouts. If lynch returns to full fitness and we get gibcus back on the park we will be better than this year and we only missed the 8 by a couple of games.
Will be interesting to see how we go.

I agree with you their - and from top to about 14th - there isnt this huge margin of talent difference - so next season there can be wild swings in expected ladder finishing positions

I watched quite a few Rich games last season - 1 of them was around the middle of the season Sat night at MCG against Saints - sliced STK to pieces a mile too quick 4 goals up - then torrential rain came - and that saved the Saints from a hiding - so Stk in 24 are rated again as a finals team

Waiting for the draw - and contemplating backing the Tigers for the 8 at the expected attractive odds - however i have got a contrary view to most - in that i think you will miss Cotchin and Reiwoldt - they were still playing ok football last season - and Jack basically carried your forward line for the whole year - plus i read a few recent quotes from Lynch - he is still a bit behind schedule - and he is hoping to be ready at the start

I do think some posters in this thread tho are chucking a few teams who have had a bit of recent success - chucking them down to 15th or 16th - just for the expected pleasure in doing that

 

[4tone]

Pies
Sydney
Crows
Port

Blues
Lions
Saints
GWS

Dogs
Cats
Hawks
Suns
Dons
Demon

Tiger
Dockers
North
Eagle

 

[4tone]

Adelaide
Sydney
GWS
Brisbane
Collingwood
GC
Sydney
Hawthorn

Carlton
Port
Suns
Richmond
GWS
West Coast
Geelong
StKilda
Kangas
Fremantle
Hawks

You got 1 extra in a 19 team comp yet you forgot totally 1 club in the dees. I like it.

 

[Angus Young]

Liking Brisbane the Blues and GWS

 

[Dan12]

GWS
Brisbane
Adelaide
Collingwood
Carlton
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Gold Coast

St. Kilda
Sydney
Essendon
Port
Dogs
Cats
Tigers
West coast
North
Freo

 

[dean33]

I agree with you their - and from top to about 14th - there isnt this huge margin of talent difference - so next season there can be wild swings in expected ladder finishing positions

I watched quite a few Rich games last season - 1 of them was around the middle of the season Sat night at MCG against Saints - sliced STK to pieces a mile too quick 4 goals up - then torrential rain came - and that saved the Saints from a hiding - so Stk in 24 are rated again as a finals team

Waiting for the draw - and contemplating backing the Tigers for the 8 at the expected attractive odds - however i have got a contrary view to most - in that i think you will miss Cotchin and Reiwoldt - they were still playing ok football last season - and Jack basically carried your forward line for the whole year - plus i read a few recent quotes from Lynch - he is still a bit behind schedule - and he is hoping to be ready at the start

I do think some posters in this thread tho are chucking a few teams who have had a bit of recent success - chucking them down to 15th or 16th - just for the expected pleasure in doing that

You make some good points, just like you blokes missed Selwoods leadership well miss the influence that Cotch and Jack had over the team. Saying that if lynch plays most of the year that will be a huge plus, he’s probably our most important player and just straightens us up.
I have no expectations on the year but excited to see a new coaching team and game plan which may just surprise some including our own supporters.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

You got 1 extra in a 19 team comp yet you forgot totally 1 club in the dees. I like it.

Quite simple explanations:
Melbourne Hawks didn't merge, and are a separate entity from Hawthorn.
Gold Coast enter their VFL team, which make finals. Their AFL team still can't, so the plan to make finals works.

 

[Joao]

GWS
Swans
Brisbane
Pies
Blues
Port
Dees
Suns
-------
Crows
Dogs
Saints
Freo
Bombers
Cats
Hawks
Tigers
North
West Coast



This is way too hard. Absolute log jam from 5-16.

I'm reasonably confident my top 4 will all be in the actual top 6 and both North and Eagles in bottom 4, and then I have very little confidence of anything else.

 

[almuz]

I reckon I can be talked into every team sans a few making the 8. Ones I’m most doubtful of:

North/WCE - can’t see it

Tigers - struggle see it even with a new coach bounce

Hawks - a lot would need to click

Cats - could sneak in if all the oldies are fit/healthy + good draw

Suns - Hardwick effect will help but they’re still the Suns

Freo - don’t rate Longmuir, need fringe players to step up

 

[My Tilly]

You do have a good point but the problem is these injuries are to your older players, meaning they are likely not one offs as the older players get the more injuries they get and the longer they are off for. Hawkins has been very durable for most of his career but time affects us all and I think it is quite likely he will get at least one injury in 2024, simply due to his age, as will some of your other older players.

You are over-looking the younger players on the list who are going to naturally improve again. People focusing entirely on the older legs but players like De Koning, Henry, Bruhn & Holmes will elevate their games in 2024.
I also believe Z.Guthrie, Close, Atkins, Miers, O'Conner, Stengle and J.Henry are all good enough to give us a bit more than what they collectively did this year.

Obviously huge question marks on Neale. Spent a few years developing in the VFL and now has the body to hold down the key post but whether he has all the tools to make it, no one knows.
Be massive to Geelong's finals chances if both he and Conway manage 15+ games.

 

[RUNVS]

You are over-looking the younger players on the list who are going to naturally improve again. People focusing entirely on the older legs but players like De Koning, Henry, Bruhn & Holmes will elevate their games in 2024.
I also believe Z.Guthrie, Close, Atkins, Miers, O'Conner, Stengle and J.Henry are all good enough to give us a bit more than what they collectively did this year.

Obviously huge question marks on Neale. Spent a few years developing in the VFL and now has the body to hold down the key post but whether he has all the tools to make it, no one knows.
Be massive to Geelong's finals chances if both he and Conway manage 15+ games.

I don't mean to offend or anything but I look at those younger players and they don't feel like they will ever be at the high end quality of your 30+ year olds. I can't imagine anyone you listed there as becoming a Dangerfield quality player, or Cameron, Hawkins, or Tuohy.

 

[My Tilly]

I don't mean to offend or anything but I look at those younger players and they don't feel like they will ever be at the high end quality of your 30+ year olds. I can't imagine anyone you listed there as becoming a Dangerfield quality player, or Cameron, Hawkins, or Tuohy.

Cameron's good for another 3-4 years.
Hawkins & Dangerfield should retire end of 2024 and as for Tuohy, he probably should have retired last year if we are being honest.

I'm pretty bullish on the likes of Clark, Bruhn & Conway. I think they will be elite footballers.

I got us finishing anywhere between 6th-9th next season. Just think we win most of our home games and we see a couple of youngsters have a break out season.

 

[RUNVS]

Cameron's good for another 3-4 years.
Hawkins & Dangerfield should retire end of 2024 and as for Tuohy, he probably should have retired last year if we are being honest.

I'm pretty bullish on the likes of Clark, Bruhn & Conway. I think they will be elite footballers.

I got us finishing anywhere between 6th-9th next season. Just think we win most of our home games and we see a couple of youngsters have a break out season.

Wasn't Clark injured for most of 2023? I mean he could turn out good but if he was injured for most of the year you can't really tell how he is going to turn out.

I am not going to comment about Conway as truthfully I do not know enough about him to make any sort of comment and Bruhn, all I know about him is he was the player who the moment he was drafted by GWS you knew he was going to be requesting a trade. Never seen such an unhappy draftee.

 

[My Tilly]

Wasn't Clark injured for most of 2023? I mean he could turn out good but if he was injured for most of the year you can't really tell how he is going to turn out.

Clark did get injured yes but the kid's all class.
Some players just ooze with natural talent from the very first day you lay your eyes on them and he's one of those. Saw it with Guthrie & Menzel all those years ago. See it in Clark.
Whether or not he reaches his full potential, not sure but odds on him becoming a pretty decent midfielder are good.

 

[adammania9]

Geez a lot of posters putting tigers bottom 4. I’m not all as doom and gloom as that.
Think a fresh coaching team with still a good nucleus of experienced players and some youth will have us thereabouts. If lynch returns to full fitness and we get gibcus back on the park we will be better than this year and we only missed the 8 by a couple of games.
Will be interesting to see how we go.

My bone to pick with Richmond is how uncertain your best side looks at this stage, and I think it could take some time to find the best mix to win regular games. Though not a relevant measure as they have no input, your supporters' best 22 thread on your board appears to be the most differing between posts. Some have Banks, Mansell, Clarke and Brown while others don't. Some have Sonsie, Trezise, Coulthard and Cumberland while others don't. Some have Gibcus, MRJ and Ralphsmith while others don't.

Richmond have a staggering amount of players who have less than 30 senior games, let alone 50 games where players tend to build more consistency from. Some of these players might break out, but just as many are likely to stagnate and not make it. The likely outcome is inconsistent results that will probably result in an 8 or 9 win season, in my view.

My Richmond 22 and depth is as follows:

Spoiler: Tigers' best side

B: J Gibcus (18 games) - T Young (19 games) - N Vlaustin (211 games)
HB: D Rioli (160 games) - N Balta (85 games) - J Short (153 games)
C: K McIntosh (168 games) - T Taranto (137 games) - J Ross (63 games)
HF: D Martin (289 games) - J Koschitzke (48 games) - J Clarke (16 games)
F: L Baker (110 games) - T Lynch (216 games) - R Mansell (32 games)
R: T Nankervis (136 games) - J Hopper (130 games) - S Bolton (113 games)
I: N Broad (126 games) - D Prestia (212 games) - S Ryan (15 games) - S Banks (6 games)
Sub: N Cumberland (18 games)

B: J Trezise (1 game) - D Grimes (229 games) - K Smith (0 games)
HB: H Ralphsmith (32 games) - ? - T Brown (1 game)
C: M Pickett (78 games) - T Dow (17 games) - Steely Green (0 games)
HF: M Coulthard (4 games) - J Bauer (4 games) - S Campbell (0 games)
F: M Rioli (27 games) - B Miller (25 games) - ?
R: Mate Colina (0 games) - T Sonsie (10 games) - J Graham (117 games)
I: O Hayes-Brown (0 games)

Looking at the number of games played by many of your fringe 22 players, and the depth behind them; it seems hard to suggest the Tigers will be a legitimate finals contender. But crazier things have happened.

 

[Joao]

More than one team that fancies themselves of hosting a final in 2024 is going to finish bottom 5. Can't remember anything like it.

 

[Sully111]

Brisbane
GWS
Collingwood
Adelaide
St. Kilda
Sydney
Carlton
Melbourne

Gold Coast
Cats
Hawthorn
Port
Dogs
Essendon
Tigers
Freo
North
West coast

 

[terrybull]

For the first time in many years I really have no expectation of Freo doing well.
I am however looking forward to deathriding 3 other clubs given we’ve traded all of 2023 into the future!!
A top 3 of Pies, Port, Saints would just be the most Dockery of outcomes….


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Same here. Stress free season, except for our games against Essendon (let them be our bunnies again) and Gold Coast (obvious reason).

Must be hard for Geelong fans for not having a stress free season for so long. Sometimes you need a breather and just enjoy footy without getting the irits on the umpires and your team.

 

[God Mode]

I see a lot of predictions here ranking the Cats in the 10th-14th range. Whilst, this is obviously wishful thinking by opposition supporters, I actually think it's the last thing you want. It's better for you all for us to finish 5th-7th (where I think we'll be) so that we both simultaneously aren't a contender and also don't get a quality pick.