Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who should Carlton take at Pick 3 if available?

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Been very concerned about FOS low production, however, looking at his year am seeing he really did have some shocking luck with injury. The averages we do have include injury impacted games and are a low sample size. Also, not sure if his TOG was impacted after returning or what % mid he played.

Last year when he had a clean run he averaged 23 per game in the talent league over 8 games including several that were 25+. You would have expected that to go up as a top ager.

This is what his year looked like in 2024:

Preseason hip injury
Talent League R1 - 15 d (broke thumb)
Missed 3 weeks
Academy Game 2 - 13d (broke finger)
Missed 6 weeks
Vic Country vs Allies - 16d (1st game back)
Vic Country vs Vic M - 7d
Talent League R19 - 19d 2g
Missed 1 Week (Hip Flexor Injury)
Talent League QF - 16d (1st game back)
Talent League PF - 20d 2g

Not saying production isn't an issue for him but might not be as bad as it looks.
 
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Lets just imagine for a minute we do take FOS... Who's supposedly very close mates with a certain H.Reid... Would this be the most hilariously strong midfield in history?

Kemp Weitering Boyd
Cowan ?KPD? Wilson
O.Hollands Cerra Walsh
O'Sullivan Mckay Fogarty
Motlop Curnow Moir
Dekoning Reid Walker

E.Hollands Silvagni Cottrell Lord
 
Pick 3 is untouchable and we will jag a future star midfielder whoever it may be. I'm just as interested in what we do after that to round out our draft haul.

I'd love for us to somehow get up the order to snag Ollie Hannaford as that dangerous small forward to assist our potency up forward. I'd be targetting GWS's pick #21 as the end pick to do so.

My best case scenario to do so is as follows:

Trade #1

GC can only take 4 live picks into the draft, as they can only take in as many picks as senior list vacancies. Accordingly, as it stands, they will have to forfeit picks 70, 76 and 78, and to a lesser extent 84.

My trade offer would be:
Car - Picks #41, #70, #76 & #78
GC - Pick #38

GC secure an additional 60 odd points for picks that would've been lost, and we secure 3 late picks (that will come in in value), to slide back 3 spots... but picks 38, 39 and 40 will all be tied to academy bids, so really its the same live pick.

Trade #2

Next step is the big swing, a 3 team trade with Brisbane and GWS that will require AFL dispensation.

Car
In - Pick #21
Out - Picks #41, #63, #70, #72, BL 2025 2nd

GWS
In - Picks #27, #41, #70 & #72
Out - Picks #21, #56

BL
In - Picks #56 & #63, BL 2025 2nd
Out - Pick #27

Brisbane give up points but secure their future 2nd back alongside nudge nudge wink wink assurances that both us and GWS wont bid on Aschroft or Fletcher (look away AFL). Aschroft likely falls to at least pick #4 (assuming Tigers get pick #2), and saves Brisbane an extra 160 points to match.

Brisbane can compile 60, 63 and 66 for St Kilda's 47 as they can only take in 6 picks, and the Saints would prefer later picks for Cole and Hoffman matching.

GWS slide back 6 spots in the draft from 21 to 27, but secure an improved mid pick and 2 late picks for a Logan Smith bid. They can flip 41 alongside 37 and 16 to get up to 12 with a future 3rd change from WC, who need to fill out their draft hand this year. GWS take in 12, 15 & 27 + Smith bid and 2 DFAs (J Carroll & B Paton).

We sell off late picks (which we already replenished) to facilitate the upgrade of 41 to 21 via Brisbane's future 2nd. We would need AFL approval given we dont have our future 1st, but should get it given we are trading in another first rounder. We give up a bit but we can be sure of avoiding a Campo bid and bringing in other young gun in a position of need.

Our draft hand would then be:
Pick #3 - gun mid (Lalor/Smith/FOS/Draper)
Pick #21 - Hannaford
Pick #40 - B Camporeale bid match via picks #68, #69, #76 & #78 (matchable up to pick #29 if they come in 10 spots each as projected)
Pick #89 (ends up at about #55 or #60) - C Dennis (think he slides)

Lucas Camporeale slides to a rookie spot, and we take 2 rookie picks or SSP picks (Denver Grainger-Barras and Darcy Macpherson)

Draft haul:
Jagga Smith (zippy mid) Ollie Hannaford (impact small fwd), Clancy Dennis (kpd), Ben Camporeale (inside mid), Lucas Camporeale (wing/hbf), Denver Grainger-Barras (intercept def), Darcy Macpherson (small def)

Fills out some key list needs and Austin's identified attributes: speed, run & key back depth (+ both Campos).

We are only left with our future 3rd and 4th for next year, which oddly should be enough to land Jack Ison and Tyson Gresham next year if bids come at pick 37 or later given new matching rules from next year.

Go all in on the strong draft to top up for next year and our future.
 
All this talk about trading Pick 3. It’s not going to happen. Austin would definitely want one of Smith, Draper, Lalor or FOS (everything we’ve all read points to those being the top 4 players in this draft). At least two or maybe three of them will be available at Pick 3, and Austin will likely select from that group

Our supporters have this idea of trading Pick 3 for two first round picks and then name dropping players, as if those are the players Austin will definitely draft. Real life doesn’t work like that.
 
marcmurphy3 said:
Been very concerned about FOS low production, however, looking at his year am seeing he really did have some shocking luck with injury. The averages we do have include injury impacted games and are a low sample size. Also, not sure if his TOG was impacted after returning or what % mid he played.

Last year when he had a clean run he averaged 23 per game in the talent league over 8 games including several that were 25+. You would have expected that to go up as a top ager.

This is what his year looked like in 2024:

Preseason hip injury
Talent League R1 - 15 d (broke thumb)
Missed 3 weeks
Academy Game 2 - 13d (broke finger)
Missed 6 weeks
Vic Country vs Allies - 16d (1st game back)
Vic Country vs Vic M - 7d
Talent League R19 - 19d 2g
Missed 1 Week (Hip Flexor Injury)
Talent League QF - 16d (1st game back)
Talent League PF - 20d 2g

Not saying production isn't an issue for him but might not be as bad as it looks.
Click to expand...

FOS is not about accumulation/"production" like someone like Jagga is. He fits into that striker mid category... lower possessions but high impact. Its like comparing say a Hayden Young and a Serong at Freo. Different types. We dont have a striker mid. Its why if we had the choice of Young or Serong, I'd go for Young in a heart beat. We have the players to do Serongs role. We dont have a Young.
 
Tjblues said:
Same boat here.

Don’t love his decisions or execution at speed (which is very fast)

Hard to know without down the ground footage do we don’t see what he’s seeing but id love him to turn into more of a kick first player.

He’s quick enough that he can afford to slow down and steady to deliver, but he seems to be stuck at warp speed and it compromises his disposal and decisions
Click to expand...
Yep agree, seemed handball happy… is that what we need ??

We need players who can get on the end of these disposals from congestion and kick to advantage.
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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