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Analysis 2024 National Draft
- Thread starter WalshistheGOAT
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Been very concerned about FOS low production, however, looking at his year am seeing he really did have some shocking luck with injury. The averages we do have include injury impacted games and are a low sample size. Also, not sure if his TOG was impacted after returning or what % mid he played.
Last year when he had a clean run he averaged 23 per game in the talent league over 8 games including several that were 25+. You would have expected that to go up as a top ager.
This is what his year looked like in 2024:
Preseason hip injury
Talent League R1 - 15 d (broke thumb)
Missed 3 weeks
Academy Game 2 - 13d (broke finger)
Missed 6 weeks
Vic Country vs Allies - 16d (1st game back)
Vic Country vs Vic M - 7d
Talent League R19 - 19d 2g
Missed 1 Week (Hip Flexor Injury)
Talent League QF - 16d (1st game back)
Talent League PF - 20d 2g
Not saying production isn't an issue for him but might not be as bad as it looks.
Last year when he had a clean run he averaged 23 per game in the talent league over 8 games including several that were 25+. You would have expected that to go up as a top ager.
This is what his year looked like in 2024:
Preseason hip injury
Talent League R1 - 15 d (broke thumb)
Missed 3 weeks
Academy Game 2 - 13d (broke finger)
Missed 6 weeks
Vic Country vs Allies - 16d (1st game back)
Vic Country vs Vic M - 7d
Talent League R19 - 19d 2g
Missed 1 Week (Hip Flexor Injury)
Talent League QF - 16d (1st game back)
Talent League PF - 20d 2g
Not saying production isn't an issue for him but might not be as bad as it looks.
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we obviously traded for 3 for a good reason. what are you worried about
1 or 2 of Lalor, Smith, Draper, FOS
I'm okay with any of those being selected
I'm okay with any of those being selected
- Mar 25, 2019
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Lets just imagine for a minute we do take FOS... Who's supposedly very close mates with a certain H.Reid... Would this be the most hilariously strong midfield in history?
Kemp Weitering Boyd
Cowan ?KPD? Wilson
O.Hollands Cerra Walsh
O'Sullivan Mckay Fogarty
Motlop Curnow Moir
Dekoning Reid Walker
E.Hollands Silvagni Cottrell Lord
Kemp Weitering Boyd
Cowan ?KPD? Wilson
O.Hollands Cerra Walsh
O'Sullivan Mckay Fogarty
Motlop Curnow Moir
Dekoning Reid Walker
E.Hollands Silvagni Cottrell Lord
PezzDogg95
Senior List
Pick 3 is untouchable and we will jag a future star midfielder whoever it may be. I'm just as interested in what we do after that to round out our draft haul.
I'd love for us to somehow get up the order to snag Ollie Hannaford as that dangerous small forward to assist our potency up forward. I'd be targetting GWS's pick #21 as the end pick to do so.
My best case scenario to do so is as follows:
Trade #1
GC can only take 4 live picks into the draft, as they can only take in as many picks as senior list vacancies. Accordingly, as it stands, they will have to forfeit picks 70, 76 and 78, and to a lesser extent 84.
My trade offer would be:
Car - Picks #41, #70, #76 & #78
GC - Pick #38
GC secure an additional 60 odd points for picks that would've been lost, and we secure 3 late picks (that will come in in value), to slide back 3 spots... but picks 38, 39 and 40 will all be tied to academy bids, so really its the same live pick.
Trade #2
Next step is the big swing, a 3 team trade with Brisbane and GWS that will require AFL dispensation.
Car
In - Pick #21
Out - Picks #41, #63, #70, #72, BL 2025 2nd
GWS
In - Picks #27, #41, #70 & #72
Out - Picks #21, #56
BL
In - Picks #56 & #63, BL 2025 2nd
Out - Pick #27
Brisbane give up points but secure their future 2nd back alongside nudge nudge wink wink assurances that both us and GWS wont bid on Aschroft or Fletcher (look away AFL). Aschroft likely falls to at least pick #4 (assuming Tigers get pick #2), and saves Brisbane an extra 160 points to match.
Brisbane can compile 60, 63 and 66 for St Kilda's 47 as they can only take in 6 picks, and the Saints would prefer later picks for Cole and Hoffman matching.
GWS slide back 6 spots in the draft from 21 to 27, but secure an improved mid pick and 2 late picks for a Logan Smith bid. They can flip 41 alongside 37 and 16 to get up to 12 with a future 3rd change from WC, who need to fill out their draft hand this year. GWS take in 12, 15 & 27 + Smith bid and 2 DFAs (J Carroll & B Paton).
We sell off late picks (which we already replenished) to facilitate the upgrade of 41 to 21 via Brisbane's future 2nd. We would need AFL approval given we dont have our future 1st, but should get it given we are trading in another first rounder. We give up a bit but we can be sure of avoiding a Campo bid and bringing in other young gun in a position of need.
Our draft hand would then be:
Pick #3 - gun mid (Lalor/Smith/FOS/Draper)
Pick #21 - Hannaford
Pick #40 - B Camporeale bid match via picks #68, #69, #76 & #78 (matchable up to pick #29 if they come in 10 spots each as projected)
Pick #89 (ends up at about #55 or #60) - C Dennis (think he slides)
Lucas Camporeale slides to a rookie spot, and we take 2 rookie picks or SSP picks (Denver Grainger-Barras and Darcy Macpherson)
Draft haul:
Jagga Smith (zippy mid) Ollie Hannaford (impact small fwd), Clancy Dennis (kpd), Ben Camporeale (inside mid), Lucas Camporeale (wing/hbf), Denver Grainger-Barras (intercept def), Darcy Macpherson (small def)
Fills out some key list needs and Austin's identified attributes: speed, run & key back depth (+ both Campos).
We are only left with our future 3rd and 4th for next year, which oddly should be enough to land Jack Ison and Tyson Gresham next year if bids come at pick 37 or later given new matching rules from next year.
Go all in on the strong draft to top up for next year and our future.
I'd love for us to somehow get up the order to snag Ollie Hannaford as that dangerous small forward to assist our potency up forward. I'd be targetting GWS's pick #21 as the end pick to do so.
My best case scenario to do so is as follows:
Trade #1
GC can only take 4 live picks into the draft, as they can only take in as many picks as senior list vacancies. Accordingly, as it stands, they will have to forfeit picks 70, 76 and 78, and to a lesser extent 84.
My trade offer would be:
Car - Picks #41, #70, #76 & #78
GC - Pick #38
GC secure an additional 60 odd points for picks that would've been lost, and we secure 3 late picks (that will come in in value), to slide back 3 spots... but picks 38, 39 and 40 will all be tied to academy bids, so really its the same live pick.
Trade #2
Next step is the big swing, a 3 team trade with Brisbane and GWS that will require AFL dispensation.
Car
In - Pick #21
Out - Picks #41, #63, #70, #72, BL 2025 2nd
GWS
In - Picks #27, #41, #70 & #72
Out - Picks #21, #56
BL
In - Picks #56 & #63, BL 2025 2nd
Out - Pick #27
Brisbane give up points but secure their future 2nd back alongside nudge nudge wink wink assurances that both us and GWS wont bid on Aschroft or Fletcher (look away AFL). Aschroft likely falls to at least pick #4 (assuming Tigers get pick #2), and saves Brisbane an extra 160 points to match.
Brisbane can compile 60, 63 and 66 for St Kilda's 47 as they can only take in 6 picks, and the Saints would prefer later picks for Cole and Hoffman matching.
GWS slide back 6 spots in the draft from 21 to 27, but secure an improved mid pick and 2 late picks for a Logan Smith bid. They can flip 41 alongside 37 and 16 to get up to 12 with a future 3rd change from WC, who need to fill out their draft hand this year. GWS take in 12, 15 & 27 + Smith bid and 2 DFAs (J Carroll & B Paton).
We sell off late picks (which we already replenished) to facilitate the upgrade of 41 to 21 via Brisbane's future 2nd. We would need AFL approval given we dont have our future 1st, but should get it given we are trading in another first rounder. We give up a bit but we can be sure of avoiding a Campo bid and bringing in other young gun in a position of need.
Our draft hand would then be:
Pick #3 - gun mid (Lalor/Smith/FOS/Draper)
Pick #21 - Hannaford
Pick #40 - B Camporeale bid match via picks #68, #69, #76 & #78 (matchable up to pick #29 if they come in 10 spots each as projected)
Pick #89 (ends up at about #55 or #60) - C Dennis (think he slides)
Lucas Camporeale slides to a rookie spot, and we take 2 rookie picks or SSP picks (Denver Grainger-Barras and Darcy Macpherson)
Draft haul:
Jagga Smith (zippy mid) Ollie Hannaford (impact small fwd), Clancy Dennis (kpd), Ben Camporeale (inside mid), Lucas Camporeale (wing/hbf), Denver Grainger-Barras (intercept def), Darcy Macpherson (small def)
Fills out some key list needs and Austin's identified attributes: speed, run & key back depth (+ both Campos).
We are only left with our future 3rd and 4th for next year, which oddly should be enough to land Jack Ison and Tyson Gresham next year if bids come at pick 37 or later given new matching rules from next year.
Go all in on the strong draft to top up for next year and our future.
- Oct 4, 2018
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Don't think we can trade our F2 from the Lions as it would leave us with no F1 or F2 which isn't allowed
PenskeFile
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1 or 2 of?
How do you think we could get 2 of those players?
Mug Richmond for some picks..
RPCB
Community Leader
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All this talk about trading Pick 3. It’s not going to happen. Austin would definitely want one of Smith, Draper, Lalor or FOS (everything we’ve all read points to those being the top 4 players in this draft). At least two or maybe three of them will be available at Pick 3, and Austin will likely select from that group
Our supporters have this idea of trading Pick 3 for two first round picks and then name dropping players, as if those are the players Austin will definitely draft. Real life doesn’t work like that.
Our supporters have this idea of trading Pick 3 for two first round picks and then name dropping players, as if those are the players Austin will definitely draft. Real life doesn’t work like that.
1 or 2 of those players will be available at our selection
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2 will definitely be there
BlueNath
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FOS is not about accumulation/"production" like someone like Jagga is. He fits into that striker mid category... lower possessions but high impact. Its like comparing say a Hayden Young and a Serong at Freo. Different types. We dont have a striker mid. Its why if we had the choice of Young or Serong, I'd go for Young in a heart beat. We have the players to do Serongs role. We dont have a Young.
Yep agree, seemed handball happy… is that what we need ??
We need players who can get on the end of these disposals from congestion and kick to advantage.
Is there a scenario where we'd use 38 to move up to #2?
- North haven't traded out
- Tigers don't take Lalor at #1
- North now choosing between Lalor or Tauru
- we offer 38 to get Lalor and North get to consider options at 3 with the option rinse repeat and step back to 4 for Tauru and collect a f3.
RPCB
Community Leader
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I would have no idea tbh mate. Wouldn’t trading away 38 make being able to match a Ben Camporeale bid (I reckon Ben is much more likelier to be bid on than Lucas) that much harder?
I think that even though Ben is ranked around 30-40, our club likes him enough not to want to mess with that for the upgrade of one draft pick.
PezzDogg95
Senior List
We could, just needs dispensation from the AFL to do so, which I noted in my post.
The argument is that we are securing a first rounder this year with those picks - which still meets the intent of the rule (not selling the future for short term gain).
Agree its unlikely, but that could be best case scenario to get up the order.
4flagsin5yrs
Premiership Player
i watched the clips again - and a few others to boot.
Draper has a far more attacking mindset - his first and foremost thought (and action) is to move the ball forward, quickly.
Sometimes to a short option, sometimes a long kick.
Inevitably with intensity. No fluffing about...
Smith (terrific player too) - first thought is inevitably sideways or backwards, very seldom forward.
And pretty much every kick is a (good) 15-25m chip.
Both very slippery and agile. Draper clearly way more explosive and I'd suggest quicker over that first 5-10 metres, by some margin (indeed quicker than just about everyone!).
Which is the better POD for us?
You serious? DC clearly the GOAT ...
That is true but striker mid or not he can't be averaging teens disposals at afl level if he is to become the player we want.
Still needs to be able to accumulate 25+ or so (assuming he's plays mid). Doesn't need 30+ like Jager though.
bradfisher14
Not actually Brad Fisher
CrippaTheGoat9
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BluStreak
Norm Smith Medallist
there is a lot of comments about Jagga being an accumulator as if that is a bad thing.
Jagga gets the ball because he reads the play so well and gets to the right places to collect.
His agility allows him to get space and he lays it off to someone in space most times.
It is exactly what we want/need in our mids. Currently our mids emulate Crippa and try to bust tackles.
Walsh and Cerra in particular do that. Jagga would enable them to revert back to their natural game.
if he plays in 2025 I would have him in the forward line as his agility would make him our best ground ball forward.
Jagga gets the ball because he reads the play so well and gets to the right places to collect.
His agility allows him to get space and he lays it off to someone in space most times.
It is exactly what we want/need in our mids. Currently our mids emulate Crippa and try to bust tackles.
Walsh and Cerra in particular do that. Jagga would enable them to revert back to their natural game.
if he plays in 2025 I would have him in the forward line as his agility would make him our best ground ball forward.
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I'm not convinced Lalor is "better" enough than Smith, FOS or Draper to bother. He seems to be the "lock" for Pick 1 currently, but that's only really based on the fact that Richmond have Pick 1 and are keen on him - in such an even draft there's a decent chance that, if you canvassed the 17 other clubs, he'd have a range of ratings anywhere from 1-4.
It's not like we'd be giving up 38 to take Harley Reid over Colby McKercher. Probably more akin to a Rayner vs Brayshaw vs LDU choice. I don't think you'd give up a decent second rounder to get Rayner over either of those blokes, nor do I think we'd do it to take Lalor over one of the other top candidates this year.
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