Autopsy 2024 Rd 21 Carlton vs Collingwood 3 point loss - is our season over?

Who played well for the Blues in Round 21 vs the Pies?


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Players mindset probably. No different to last year in a lot of ways except in reverse. They got comfortable and stopped working hard. They thought they could click into gear whenever they needed to but the competition didn’t allow it to happen. Then when results went against we lost our confidence and went into our shells. It can of course turn back - and maybe the last quarter from last night provides a glimmer of hope that it can - but time is starting to run out.

The warning signs were there for everyone to see in that horrid round 1 win against Richmond. We should’ve pounded them after the Gabba win, but instead we took the foot off the throat and just scrapped home. It’s why missing finals might not be the worst thing long term for this group. It should make them angry, relentless and focussed. They got a taste of September last year only for it be taken away. It’s not their right to think they can just roll up and have success.
I wonder how much the omissions etc play a part?

Things are going well and a supposed star becomes available and goes straight back into seniors rather than come through the 2s?
 
What caused a sudden turnaround in our form after 1Q against GWS?

We were on fire up until that point and we prolly would have won at least 2-3 of past 4.

Other teams improve that’s fair but in our case we went from a top 2 side to a side that’s struggling to make the 8.

Intriguing how things swing around in one season.

There's a few things that happened.

Like some have pointed out, we got ahead of ourselves. On top of that, TDK, Weitering and Gov were all injured/hampered.

Once we allowed the Giants (a side that finished 4th last year with a 1 point loss to the filth in a prelim) to get that belief, they grew in confidence and we waned heavily. Last quarter was a bit of a fight back but too little too late... 75 point turn around I said at the time was quite alarming. There's losing and then there's losing like that... the second time this season we allowed a team to turn the match by 12 goals+

That then gave the Dogs the belief that we were gettable. With their season on the line and an embarrassing performance the week before, they got up for us.

Then there was selection and Voss shuffling in form players around and out of the side to slot his shiny new cars in... those new cars didn't perform, we lost other important players. It all adds up and we've gone into our shell and started playing safe like we did during our 8/9 game losing stretch last year... we don't lose by much... but we inevitably lose by a similar margin regardless of the opposition (except for shoe ins like North, Tigers, WCE etc).
 
True but I still believe our skill level is very poor especially under any pressure

Who in our side is an elite or very good ball user?

I rate a number of our players for kicking, but my god they can look ordinary at times. Some of it is trying to pull off too difficult a kick or just not reading the closing speed of the opposition and part of it is the receiver not attacking the ball in the air or running the right patterns.

Our good ball users theoretically are:

Newman
Saad
McGovern
Cerra
Boyd
Weitering
Hewett

I also rate Kennedy and Curnow kicking inside 50, and surprisingly these days, Cripps who has improved greatly.
 

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Lots and lots of variables. Injuries, form, opposition are different every week. It’s a fine line

If it was so easy to work out people would pick 8 winners each week

6 weeks ago people were questioning Hawks list, Ken Hinkley at Port and Swans were easily flag favourites.

I was very hopeful at start of year based on how we finished last year. Issue is it’s a lot easier to go from 12th to 4th than it is from 4th to 1st

Voss said last night he was as pleased with the effort and it was the best we’ve played in 4 weeks. Yet, we couldn’t beat a side not in the 8. 😳

This is the reality of where we are now
Id say all the variables that make football difficult are the same for every side, we aren’t special or hard done by here, it’s a close comp where dropping off even slightly will cost you.

6 weeks ago the Hawks, Swans and Port all had a stronger team defence than us, at that stage we were 14th for points against, now we sit 12th. Most here dismissed any concern over this, blaming the draw and injuries, yet as the draws evened out and we’ve had players return, we can’t defend and teams who can’t defend, get found out.

This season is crazy and with 3 rounds to go, top 4 is still in play and so is finishing 9th, all we have to do is win next week, that’s the first step.

If we can get some confidence back the next few weeks, we can challenge anyone but our coaches inability to rectify our defensive issues will make seriously challenging unlikely
 
If we can get some confidence back the next few weeks, we can challenge anyone but our coaches inability to rectify our defensive issues will make seriously challenging unlikely

I hope you’re right but do you base this on hope or data?

I said have numerous times our best can beat anyone. However, our form line is poor and we will likely be missing TDK & Cerra at a minimum going into finals

I also believe we have a number of key players just getting through because of injury

My concern is it’s not just one or two issues now
 
The last three weeks represents some of the dumbest coaching I have ever witnessed. We've torched a 2 game break in second spot and now look likely to miss finals.

All season we have played a front half of the field game, based around winning the ball quickly at contests, belting it forward, keeping our players 1-v-1 and using a very high forward press to lock it in with multiple small forwards around the two bigs. We play endurance, defensive wings (Hollands/Cottrell/Acres) and rely on them to cover enormous amounts of ground without the ball. We have played a highly mobile backline with players who can interchange (Kemp/McGovern/Weitering/Newman) - and while they might give up size, it doesn't matter as long as we put on forward pressure and the ball isn't coming to their opponents advantage. The idea is to win territory, and if we do have to move the ball all our defenders are generally good kicks who can hit a target in the centre of the ground, then we handball and scramble it forward from there. We were the number one team for turnover differential, and when our midfield was pounding teams with big bodies (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy) and had De Koning in form as almost an extra mid to help, we looked amazing. The risk with that style was if fast opponents got 'out the back', or if teams picked us apart with precision kicking and could exploit our smaller backline. Ok, but we were smashing everyone.

Some key measures here: vs Geelong (our last big win) we laid 22 tackles inside 50, and our small/medium forwards -Cincotta (playing as a defensive forward on Stewart), Fogarty, Owies, E Hollands, Williams and Fantasia laid 24 tackles.

Then the GWS game happened - TDK hurt his ankle early and got smashed around by Briggs, while not really being able to play that extra mid role. They have some of the best ball users in the league, picked our press apart, Hogan took some big marks on Kemp/McGovern, and we lost - by two goals, away, to a likely top 4 team. Big deal, right?

So the next week, Voss starts messing around. We play two rucks vs Bulldogs for the first time in eons, which means a resting ruck forward, and less forward pressure. This is compounded by playing an underdone Cottrell in a forward/wing role and an early injury to Williams (who had been great as a small forward). Oh, and we dropped Hewett - Mr Consistency and our best defensive mid - to bring in an underdone Cerra, play Kennedy as the sub so that Cincotta can play midfield... we still keep our same structure, but we're a bit all over the place, and in particular, they are able to move the ball deep to their big forwards. We lose by two goals, to a team that has subsequently smashed all comers, despite being off.

Two losses, some unusual circumstances, good opponents.

So the logical thing to do is to completely change the structure and play a loose man behind the ball, which we do the following week against North.

The problem with this is that our personnel are totally wrong for this. Doing this makes it much harder to put pressure up the ground - other teams can just simply run around our small forwards using their spare man. And with the current team, we struggle to move the ball. If you have a spare back, so does the other team, and so you can't just belt it up the middle to the big blokes - it'll get picked off. You have to spread the field, use your wings offensively, and have multiple marking and leading targets to play through. But we don't. Our wings are defensive and have shaky disposal - particularly given Acres got injured so it was Cottrell/Hollands. None of our small forwards are leading/marking targets. If Charlie/Harry come up the ground to help move the ball then there is no-one to kick to. If we blaze long Charlie/Harry have to play 1vs2 (or even 3 in the air).

So we narrowly beat North, but look unconvincing. Then we try the same thing against Port, and it also doesn't work. We hold Port to 79 points but kick our lowest score for the year. Obviously missing McKay and TDK for this makes it harder.

And then playing Collingwood we do the same again, allowing Howe and Moore (who had been horribly out of form) to play 2v1 vs our tall forwards. I can't remember us sitting back so deep and having to hold out like that all season - but this is a particularly negative game plan against the team in 11th spot. We manage 6 goals in three quarters and find ourselves 5 goals behind. When we do go forward, we're either turning it over trying to find outnumbered targets, or taking long range, low percentage shots at goal. In the last quarter, we go back to our original style, match them for numbers around the ground and stage a comeback, ultimately having a shot to win. The recipe was there all along - we just took too long to get back to what has worked for us so well.

Back to those key measures: at 3/4 time last night we had 1 tackle inside 50, and Fogarty/Cottrell/Owies/Motlop/Martin had combined for 2 tackles total. There's the game right there - complete lack of ability to put on forward pressure. In the last quarter we manage 7 tackles inside 50, and our small forwards contribute 4 of those.

The key thing for me is that there is still hope. If we go back to what we were doing - big bodied midfield, forward pressure focus - we should still rally and make finals. Voss has shown the abiltiy to respond and in particular, keep morale up and get players performing well with their backs against the wall, so hopefully this can be turned around.

Outstanding post
 
We have lost 6 games with Tom in the side

Yeah 11-6 his record is.

However ...

We are 9-1 with TDK as the only ruckman

We are 2-5 with TDK and Pittonet in the side

We are 1-3 with Pittonet the only ruckman
 
The last three weeks represents some of the dumbest coaching I have ever witnessed. We've torched a 2 game break in second spot and now look likely to miss finals.

All season we have played a front half of the field game, based around winning the ball quickly at contests, belting it forward, keeping our players 1-v-1 and using a very high forward press to lock it in with multiple small forwards around the two bigs. We play endurance, defensive wings (Hollands/Cottrell/Acres) and rely on them to cover enormous amounts of ground without the ball. We have played a highly mobile backline with players who can interchange (Kemp/McGovern/Weitering/Newman) - and while they might give up size, it doesn't matter as long as we put on forward pressure and the ball isn't coming to their opponents advantage. The idea is to win territory, and if we do have to move the ball all our defenders are generally good kicks who can hit a target in the centre of the ground, then we handball and scramble it forward from there. We were the number one team for turnover differential, and when our midfield was pounding teams with big bodies (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy) and had De Koning in form as almost an extra mid to help, we looked amazing. The risk with that style was if fast opponents got 'out the back', or if teams picked us apart with precision kicking and could exploit our smaller backline. Ok, but we were smashing everyone.

Some key measures here: vs Geelong (our last big win) we laid 22 tackles inside 50, and our small/medium forwards -Cincotta (playing as a defensive forward on Stewart), Fogarty, Owies, E Hollands, Williams and Fantasia laid 24 tackles.

Then the GWS game happened - TDK hurt his ankle early and got smashed around by Briggs, while not really being able to play that extra mid role. They have some of the best ball users in the league, picked our press apart, Hogan took some big marks on Kemp/McGovern, and we lost - by two goals, away, to a likely top 4 team. Big deal, right?

So the next week, Voss starts messing around. We play two rucks vs Bulldogs for the first time in eons, which means a resting ruck forward, and less forward pressure. This is compounded by playing an underdone Cottrell in a forward/wing role and an early injury to Williams (who had been great as a small forward). Oh, and we dropped Hewett - Mr Consistency and our best defensive mid - to bring in an underdone Cerra, play Kennedy as the sub so that Cincotta can play midfield... we still keep our same structure, but we're a bit all over the place, and in particular, they are able to move the ball deep to their big forwards. We lose by two goals, to a team that has subsequently smashed all comers, despite being off.

Two losses, some unusual circumstances, good opponents.

So the logical thing to do is to completely change the structure and play a loose man behind the ball, which we do the following week against North.

The problem with this is that our personnel are totally wrong for this. Doing this makes it much harder to put pressure up the ground - other teams can just simply run around our small forwards using their spare man. And with the current team, we struggle to move the ball. If you have a spare back, so does the other team, and so you can't just belt it up the middle to the big blokes - it'll get picked off. You have to spread the field, use your wings offensively, and have multiple marking and leading targets to play through. But we don't. Our wings are defensive and have shaky disposal - particularly given Acres got injured so it was Cottrell/Hollands. None of our small forwards are leading/marking targets. If Charlie/Harry come up the ground to help move the ball then there is no-one to kick to. If we blaze long Charlie/Harry have to play 1vs2 (or even 3 in the air).

So we narrowly beat North, but look unconvincing. Then we try the same thing against Port, and it also doesn't work. We hold Port to 79 points but kick our lowest score for the year. Obviously missing McKay and TDK for this makes it harder.

And then playing Collingwood we do the same again, allowing Howe and Moore (who had been horribly out of form) to play 2v1 vs our tall forwards. I can't remember us sitting back so deep and having to hold out like that all season - but this is a particularly negative game plan against the team in 11th spot. We manage 6 goals in three quarters and find ourselves 5 goals behind. When we do go forward, we're either turning it over trying to find outnumbered targets, or taking long range, low percentage shots at goal. In the last quarter, we go back to our original style, match them for numbers around the ground and stage a comeback, ultimately having a shot to win. The recipe was there all along - we just took too long to get back to what has worked for us so well.

Back to those key measures: at 3/4 time last night we had 1 tackle inside 50, and Fogarty/Cottrell/Owies/Motlop/Martin had combined for 2 tackles total. There's the game right there - complete lack of ability to put on forward pressure. In the last quarter we manage 7 tackles inside 50, and our small forwards contribute 4 of those.

The key thing for me is that there is still hope. If we go back to what we were doing - big bodied midfield, forward pressure focus - we should still rally and make finals. Voss has shown the abiltiy to respond and in particular, keep morale up and get players performing well with their backs against the wall, so hopefully this can be turned around.

I live for this quality of post on BigFooty. Brilliantly summarised, easy to understand, and it makes complete sense. Standing ovation.
 
The last three weeks represents some of the dumbest coaching I have ever witnessed. We've torched a 2 game break in second spot and now look likely to miss finals.

All season we have played a front half of the field game, based around winning the ball quickly at contests, belting it forward, keeping our players 1-v-1 and using a very high forward press to lock it in with multiple small forwards around the two bigs. We play endurance, defensive wings (Hollands/Cottrell/Acres) and rely on them to cover enormous amounts of ground without the ball. We have played a highly mobile backline with players who can interchange (Kemp/McGovern/Weitering/Newman) - and while they might give up size, it doesn't matter as long as we put on forward pressure and the ball isn't coming to their opponents advantage. The idea is to win territory, and if we do have to move the ball all our defenders are generally good kicks who can hit a target in the centre of the ground, then we handball and scramble it forward from there. We were the number one team for turnover differential, and when our midfield was pounding teams with big bodies (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy) and had De Koning in form as almost an extra mid to help, we looked amazing. The risk with that style was if fast opponents got 'out the back', or if teams picked us apart with precision kicking and could exploit our smaller backline. Ok, but we were smashing everyone.

Some key measures here: vs Geelong (our last big win) we laid 22 tackles inside 50, and our small/medium forwards -Cincotta (playing as a defensive forward on Stewart), Fogarty, Owies, E Hollands, Williams and Fantasia laid 24 tackles.

Then the GWS game happened - TDK hurt his ankle early and got smashed around by Briggs, while not really being able to play that extra mid role. They have some of the best ball users in the league, picked our press apart, Hogan took some big marks on Kemp/McGovern, and we lost - by two goals, away, to a likely top 4 team. Big deal, right?

So the next week, Voss starts messing around. We play two rucks vs Bulldogs for the first time in eons, which means a resting ruck forward, and less forward pressure. This is compounded by playing an underdone Cottrell in a forward/wing role and an early injury to Williams (who had been great as a small forward). Oh, and we dropped Hewett - Mr Consistency and our best defensive mid - to bring in an underdone Cerra, play Kennedy as the sub so that Cincotta can play midfield... we still keep our same structure, but we're a bit all over the place, and in particular, they are able to move the ball deep to their big forwards. We lose by two goals, to a team that has subsequently smashed all comers, despite being off.

Two losses, some unusual circumstances, good opponents.

So the logical thing to do is to completely change the structure and play a loose man behind the ball, which we do the following week against North.

The problem with this is that our personnel are totally wrong for this. Doing this makes it much harder to put pressure up the ground - other teams can just simply run around our small forwards using their spare man. And with the current team, we struggle to move the ball. If you have a spare back, so does the other team, and so you can't just belt it up the middle to the big blokes - it'll get picked off. You have to spread the field, use your wings offensively, and have multiple marking and leading targets to play through. But we don't. Our wings are defensive and have shaky disposal - particularly given Acres got injured so it was Cottrell/Hollands. None of our small forwards are leading/marking targets. If Charlie/Harry come up the ground to help move the ball then there is no-one to kick to. If we blaze long Charlie/Harry have to play 1vs2 (or even 3 in the air).

So we narrowly beat North, but look unconvincing. Then we try the same thing against Port, and it also doesn't work. We hold Port to 79 points but kick our lowest score for the year. Obviously missing McKay and TDK for this makes it harder.

And then playing Collingwood we do the same again, allowing Howe and Moore (who had been horribly out of form) to play 2v1 vs our tall forwards. I can't remember us sitting back so deep and having to hold out like that all season - but this is a particularly negative game plan against the team in 11th spot. We manage 6 goals in three quarters and find ourselves 5 goals behind. When we do go forward, we're either turning it over trying to find outnumbered targets, or taking long range, low percentage shots at goal. In the last quarter, we go back to our original style, match them for numbers around the ground and stage a comeback, ultimately having a shot to win. The recipe was there all along - we just took too long to get back to what has worked for us so well.

Back to those key measures: at 3/4 time last night we had 1 tackle inside 50, and Fogarty/Cottrell/Owies/Motlop/Martin had combined for 2 tackles total. There's the game right there - complete lack of ability to put on forward pressure. In the last quarter we manage 7 tackles inside 50, and our small forwards contribute 4 of those.

The key thing for me is that there is still hope. If we go back to what we were doing - big bodied midfield, forward pressure focus - we should still rally and make finals. Voss has shown the abiltiy to respond and in particular, keep morale up and get players performing well with their backs against the wall, so hopefully this can be turned around.

Great post 👍
 
Apologies if this has been mentioned and I have missed it, but is Cox allowed to jump up and down on the mark while Gov was having a shot at goal?

Is it a different rule while kicking a goal to other parts of the ground?
 

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Id say all the variables that make football difficult are the same for every side, we aren’t special or hard done by here, it’s a close comp where dropping off even slightly will cost you.

6 weeks ago the Hawks, Swans and Port all had a stronger team defence than us, at that stage we were 14th for points against, now we sit 12th. Most here dismissed any concern over this, blaming the draw and injuries, yet as the draws evened out and we’ve had players return, we can’t defend and teams who can’t defend, get found out.

This season is crazy and with 3 rounds to go, top 4 is still in play and so is finishing 9th, all we have to do is win next week, that’s the first step.

If we can get some confidence back the next few weeks, we can challenge anyone but our coaches inability to rectify our defensive issues will make seriously challenging unlikely

When you say we can't defend, I just want to add that half of that issue is that we can't defend in the midfield. Funnily enough, when they get themselves behind and have nothing to lose, they are suddenly everywhere in that midfield, shutting down space and hitting hard. So, we can defend ... we just don't.

Our game plan relies on us having run late, but you can't win a game in the last 10 minutes by trying to stay in touch for the last 100.
 
Apologies if this has been mentioned and I have missed it, but is Cox allowed to jump up and down on the mark while Gov was having a shot at goal?

Is it a different rule while kicking a goal to other parts of the ground?

Hmm, if he is on the mark, he should be able to, BUT I can't remember anybody doing anything but planting their feet and swaying from side to side for ages now, so maybe STAND means just that. Good point.
 
When you say we can't defend, I just want to add that half of that issue is that we can't defend in the midfield. Funnily enough, when they get themselves behind and have nothing to lose, they are suddenly everywhere in that midfield, shutting down space and hitting hard. So, we can defend ... we just don't.

Our game plan relies on us having run late, but you can't win a game in the last 10 minutes by trying to stay in touch for the last 100.
Correct … earlier in the season when we were up and about we were maintaining a high pressure rating for large portions of a game … now we are down to doing this for 10 minutes a game at best … unfit or lazy or both ?
 
Hmm, if he is on the mark, he should be able to, BUT I can't remember anybody doing anything but planting their feet and swaying from side to side for ages now, so maybe STAND means just that. Good point.
My belief was that stand means feet can’t leave the ground.

I was think it’s a stupid rule that you can’t jump.
 
Biggest issues for me

Too many injury prone players
Very slow
Very poor skilled side across the park

We have serious list issues
You can also add mental fragility. Since R22 2022, Pies live rent free in our heads. Trust me, when both teams play with equivalent incentive, like last night, you can back it in that they will come out on top. Galling isn’t it?

Gee at least against GWS (away), Dogs and Port we were playing either teams in form, that have been super since or were playing us when we injury compromised and coming off a 5 day break (Port), but losing to Pies who are so vanilla and in poor form, with so much to play for, is beyond disappointing, bordering on disgraceful.

Don’t give a flying eff that it was Pendles 400th, those Pies milestone games have never stopped us winning v them in the past, nor did it matter one iota to Hawks when they belted Tigs in front of 90k for Dusty’s 300th.

Time to put the “big boy” pants on next week and at least show they care about playing finals. The result hardly matters. JUST. SHOW. US. YOU.CARE.

Just filthy with CFC today
 
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I rate a number of our players for kicking, but my god they can look ordinary at times. Some of it is trying to pull off too difficult a kick or just not reading the closing speed of the opposition and part of it is the receiver not attacking the ball in the air or running the right patterns.

Our good ball users theoretically are:

Newman
Saad
McGovern
Cerra
Boyd
Weitering
Hewett

I also rate Kennedy and Curnow kicking inside 50, and surprisingly these days, Cripps who has improved greatly.
Boyd's gone way off the boil lately.

Cerra has been stone cold all year.
 
You can also add mental fragility. Since R22 2022, Pies live rent free in our heads. Trust me, when both teams play with equivalent incentive, like last night, you can back it in that they will come out on top. Galling isn’t it?

The current Collingwood side value this rivalry more than our side does. They buy into the hatred big time. They get it.

Our players do not respect this rivalry like our supporters do.
 
I wonder how much the omissions etc play a part?

Things are going well and a supposed star becomes available and goes straight back into seniors rather than come through the 2s?

Yep I agree. Cerra should never have come straight back in, that right is only reserved for Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Harry, Charlie, TDk and Saad. I still cannot believe Cotts came straight back in after 2 months out.

There’s been a few other bizarre ones by the coaches as well:
- Dropping Hewett and leaving him out for a couple weeks was bizarre - the only possible reason could be that he was sore and needed a rest - he has his limitations but he puts in every week (it was mentioned here that he was sick for one of the weeks he was out).
- The use of the sub has been odd and inconsistent with Voss’ messaging that it would be used to manage player loads only for the same players to wear it on multiple occasions and in-form players being made sub (eg Owies)
- MK, who has had a good year, has been used as sub and gone forward and back, partly due to injury/form of those specialising in those role, but it’s ruined his impact…we played our best when he was in the main midfield rotation.
 
The current Collingwood side value this rivalry more than our side does. They buy into the hatred big time. They get it.

Our players do not respect this rivalry like our supporters do.
Does this Carlton team take the "just another game", sanitized approach just a little far maybe?
 
Cannot even count the amount times the ridiculous game plan of chip, chip chip around the defence and bomb to the wing got picked off by intercept marks. Same thing over and over Charlie versus 3 on the wing, Harry versus 2 on the wing, Pitto versus 2 on the wing.

Collingwood did the same thing everytime, had the direct opponent hold off one of the 3 at bay on the wing and another play came in over the top to take the mark. Simple, makes sense and yet we never, ever do that.

We've been found out and we no longer catch the opposition by surprise. The last quarter doesn't count because it was on the back of Cripps going into superman mode.
 
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Autopsy 2024 Rd 21 Carlton vs Collingwood 3 point loss - is our season over?

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