Autopsy 2024 Rd 21 Carlton vs Collingwood 3 point loss - is our season over?

[Beyond Blue]

I hope you’re right but do you base this on hope or data?

I said have numerous times our best can beat anyone. However, our form line is poor and we will likely be missing TDK & Cerra at a minimum going into finals

I also believe we have a number of key players just getting through because of injury

My concern is it’s not just one or two issues now

I’ve noticed you’ve said this a few times and I was inclined to agree with you based on what I’ve seen over the past month.

Yet in that quarter everyone seemed to be running over the ground, most notably Walsh, who I suspect is one of the players you are alluding to.

Hewett and Weitering are another two I thought you were referring to but they looked the best they have in months last night.

You seem a knowledgeable poster so out of interest is that assessment based on some inside word you have on this?

 

[BM123]

Weekly reminder that when you kick a goal the ball goes back to the centre and nothing stays the same.

There is an infinite number of scenarios that could have played out.

Working hard for 3-6 minutes to get a goal just to concede the next one 20 seconds later is a Carlton special.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

The problem with this approach is that we’re always chasing to fill holes - we need to be ahead.. some of the issues were identifiable from a distance well before we acted on them… and some of the present issues we’ve created even though we could foresee what we were building - eg, trading in Cerra. I like Cerra and he’s played some amazing football for us but even at the time I was concerned that we were bringing in more of the same, when we needed particular types to complement what we already had/were building.

This. I didn't understand why we were chasing Cerra. I like him too, but the insistence on one paced midfielders frustrates me. Can we please get an inside mid with pace and ability?

We brought in Acres and Hollands after struggling for a couple of years, as you said. We then brought in Binns and we will now bring in the Camporeale twins. None are express.

It's just like when we identified a lack of ruckman back in the day. We brought in Hampson, Kreuzer, Warnock and Phillips within a year or so. It was crazy stuff.

We either have a dearth or a surplus and we lose players who can't get games.

 

[Soapy V]

I’ve noticed you’ve said this a few times and I was inclined to agree with you based on what I’ve seen over the past month.

Yet in that quarter everyone seemed to be running over the ground, most notably Walsh, who I suspect is one of the players you are alluding to.

Hewett and Weitering are another two I thought you were referring to but they looked the best they have in months last night.

You seem a knowledgeable poster so out of interest is that assessment based on some inside word you have on this?

More observations and rumours than anything definitive

 

[Opium]

The last three weeks represents some of the dumbest coaching I have ever witnessed. We've torched a 2 game break in second spot and now look likely to miss finals.

All season we have played a front half of the field game, based around winning the ball quickly at contests, belting it forward, keeping our players 1-v-1 and using a very high forward press to lock it in with multiple small forwards around the two bigs. We play endurance, defensive wings (Hollands/Cottrell/Acres) and rely on them to cover enormous amounts of ground without the ball. We have played a highly mobile backline with players who can interchange (Kemp/McGovern/Weitering/Newman) - and while they might give up size, it doesn't matter as long as we put on forward pressure and the ball isn't coming to their opponents advantage. The idea is to win territory, and if we do have to move the ball all our defenders are generally good kicks who can hit a target in the centre of the ground, then we handball and scramble it forward from there. We were the number one team for turnover differential, and when our midfield was pounding teams with big bodies (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy) and had De Koning in form as almost an extra mid to help, we looked amazing. The risk with that style was if fast opponents got 'out the back', or if teams picked us apart with precision kicking and could exploit our smaller backline. Ok, but we were smashing everyone.

Some key measures here: vs Geelong (our last big win) we laid 22 tackles inside 50, and our small/medium forwards -Cincotta (playing as a defensive forward on Stewart), Fogarty, Owies, E Hollands, Williams and Fantasia laid 24 tackles.

Then the GWS game happened - TDK hurt his ankle early and got smashed around by Briggs, while not really being able to play that extra mid role. They have some of the best ball users in the league, picked our press apart, Hogan took some big marks on Kemp/McGovern, and we lost - by two goals, away, to a likely top 4 team. Big deal, right?

So the next week, Voss starts messing around. We play two rucks vs Bulldogs for the first time in eons, which means a resting ruck forward, and less forward pressure. This is compounded by playing an underdone Cottrell in a forward/wing role and an early injury to Williams (who had been great as a small forward). Oh, and we dropped Hewett - Mr Consistency and our best defensive mid - to bring in an underdone Cerra, play Kennedy as the sub so that Cincotta can play midfield... we still keep our same structure, but we're a bit all over the place, and in particular, they are able to move the ball deep to their big forwards. We lose by two goals, to a team that has subsequently smashed all comers, despite being off.

Two losses, some unusual circumstances, good opponents.

So the logical thing to do is to completely change the structure and play a loose man behind the ball, which we do the following week against North.

The problem with this is that our personnel are totally wrong for this. Doing this makes it much harder to put pressure up the ground - other teams can just simply run around our small forwards using their spare man. And with the current team, we struggle to move the ball. If you have a spare back, so does the other team, and so you can't just belt it up the middle to the big blokes - it'll get picked off. You have to spread the field, use your wings offensively, and have multiple marking and leading targets to play through. But we don't. Our wings are defensive and have shaky disposal - particularly given Acres got injured so it was Cottrell/Hollands. None of our small forwards are leading/marking targets. If Charlie/Harry come up the ground to help move the ball then there is no-one to kick to. If we blaze long Charlie/Harry have to play 1vs2 (or even 3 in the air).

So we narrowly beat North, but look unconvincing. Then we try the same thing against Port, and it also doesn't work. We hold Port to 79 points but kick our lowest score for the year. Obviously missing McKay and TDK for this makes it harder.

And then playing Collingwood we do the same again, allowing Howe and Moore (who had been horribly out of form) to play 2v1 vs our tall forwards. I can't remember us sitting back so deep and having to hold out like that all season - but this is a particularly negative game plan against the team in 11th spot. We manage 6 goals in three quarters and find ourselves 5 goals behind. When we do go forward, we're either turning it over trying to find outnumbered targets, or taking long range, low percentage shots at goal. In the last quarter, we go back to our original style, match them for numbers around the ground and stage a comeback, ultimately having a shot to win. The recipe was there all along - we just took too long to get back to what has worked for us so well.

Back to those key measures: at 3/4 time last night we had 1 tackle inside 50, and Fogarty/Cottrell/Owies/Motlop/Martin had combined for 2 tackles total. There's the game right there - complete lack of ability to put on forward pressure. In the last quarter we manage 7 tackles inside 50, and our small forwards contribute 4 of those.

The key thing for me is that there is still hope. If we go back to what we were doing - big bodied midfield, forward pressure focus - we should still rally and make finals. Voss has shown the abiltiy to respond and in particular, keep morale up and get players performing well with their backs against the wall, so hopefully this can be turned around.

Agree and great post. For some reason we've changed our style that held up for so long against really good opponents. Coaching and tactics have had a massive bearing on our declining form.

 

[tarczonandjane]

The problem with this approach is that we’re always chasing to fill holes - we need to be ahead.. some of the issues were identifiable from a distance well before we acted on them… and some of the present issues we’ve created even though we could foresee what we were building - eg, trading in Cerra. I like Cerra and he’s played some amazing football for us but even at the time I was concerned that we were bringing in more of the same, when we needed particular types to complement what we already had/were building.

The talk before we traded for Cerra was outside type with footskills. That might not be what he has brought (due to injuries), but that’s what we were lacking and why we went for him. It’s also exactly what our list needs.

And I’d say all clubs try and plug holes. The last time we tried to get ahead was when Teague came in and declared attack was the new defence. It set us back years. SOS also went for hard bodies proactively, and the game never really evolved away from the precision kicks of the Hawthorn sides from ten years ago.

But overall I would say that plugging holes in one person’s eyes is being proactive in another’s. Your plugging holes is just my proactive. In the end, my view is that this club learns and evolves… sometimes more successfully than others.

 

[Opium]

Biggest issues for me

Too many injury prone players
Very slow
Very poor skilled side across the park

We have serious list issues

Agree with the injury prone players.

However the same list that prompted Chris Scott to state that we were the best team he has played all season 6 weeks ago? I think we have the talent Soap. Not sure our game plan is stacking up at present.

 

[Soapy V]

This. I didn't understand why we were chasing Cerra. I like him too, but the insistence on one paced midfielders frustrates me. Can we please get an inside mid with pace and ability?

We brought in Acres and Hollands after struggling for a couple of years, as you said. We then brought in Binns and we will now bring in the Camporeale twins. None are express.

It's just like when we identified a lack of ruckman back in the day. We brought in Hampson, Kreuzer, Warnock and Phillips within a year or so. It was crazy stuff.

We either have a dearth or a surplus and we lose players who can't get games.

I can see Cerra replacing Hewett
Walsh will come back. He’s a star

We need names like Wilson Ben Campo Elijah to step up to possibly add to the mix

Lord looks good but is more a Newcombe type. Carroll is another hard worker but doesn’t add anything different

Cincotta I like as well. Played some great football as a mid at VFL. He does have leg speed and is a very good kick

Can Kemp or Cowan become options? I never considered Cowan until I saw him in the middle in the 2s earlier this year. Looked good

Personally, I want another first round pick this year. There is some genuine midfield talent that we need to add and we need to add a few

 

[branedotorg]

cox is a better kick for goal than curnow and McKay…for a guy that was born in the USA he has more football smarts than both of them combined…was he born with it or is he better coached?

Coached, didn't have it at the start but MacRae was his mentor and made him carry a footy everywhere for years, well before he became his coach

 

[Soapy V]

Agree with the injury prone players.

However the same list that prompted Chris Scott to state that we were the best team he has played all season 6 weeks ago? I think we have the talent Soap. Not sure our game plan is stacking up at present.

We were very good that night. Issue is now it seems to be more of a rare night out than a trend
Personally I think it’s both

 

[Stormzy]

To think if we just held on in a few key stages during the year
Crows, Pies, GWS away, we'd be top of the ladder right now.

Just really heartbreaking stuff, 6 weeks ago I genuinely though this could be our year. Footy for ya

 

[thechamps2024]

Time for changes this week. Binns is he another Dow, gets 40 doesnt get a game. Midfield and general speed is slow. We have gone back into this 2023 mode. Voss needs to be a little bit more creative, than expecting the same style. curnow not getting a kick put him in the midfield, or stick him down back and throw weitering forward. I remeber the days when we would throw SOS forward if things dont work. Voss is one dimenisional and needs to change. The team is now predictable play hard and run harder and you will beat us. The team has not played a 4 quarter game for ever. Just so disappointed but not surprised

 

[Gw2_James]

The cleanout at Carlton a few years back was never completed.
Too many survived the cull ... and were hoping Voss could deliver them Glory.
Not enough boxes are being checked at Carlton ... including the team content.

Players who aren't good enough are clogging up the team. Carlton's bottom 6 are sub standard.
As it stands ... our team is not talented enough around the ground to win a flag.
We need to improve by at least 20% to become a serious contender for a flag.

Carlton were never going to win a Premiership in 2024. Maybe 2026 if we recruit well

100% we need to finish the cleanout, and honestly, if this club is serious, everyone, besides Cripps, should be up for trade if the right offer comes around.

 

[thechamps2024]

100% we need to finish the cleanout, and honestly, if this club is serious, everyone, besides Cripps, should be up for trade if the right offer comes around.

Agree but the appointment of Voss was the wrong choice. Kingsley would have been better and would have been more creative. Voss has Game Plan A and then Game Plan A, followed by Game Plan A. Recruiting was terrible, we recruited guys who are better off in the 1980s at Morrabin when its a slog and slow, not quick enough. We have 2 players who are our life and blood. Crippa, Weits. The rest trade and build.

 

[charred_fate]

The talk before we traded for Cerra was outside type with footskills. That might not be what he has brought (due to injuries), but that’s what we were lacking and why we went for him. It’s also exactly what our list needs.

And I’d say all clubs try and plug holes. The last time we tried to get ahead was when Teague came in and declared attack was the new defence. It set us back years. SOS also went for hard bodies proactively, and the game never really evolved away from the precision kicks of the Hawthorn sides from ten years ago.

But overall I would say that plugging holes in one person’s eyes is being proactive in another’s. Your plugging holes is just my proactive. In the end, my view is that this club learns and evolves… sometimes more successfully than others.

Fair enough. It’s just disheartening when fans often seem to have more idea where the list is at than the professionals making the decisions.

And as ODN says, we seem to create holes and then go overboard with the plugging … so focused on plugging one hole that we end up creating another.

We’ve been through this several times in the past 20+ years.

 

[thechamps2024]

Fair enough. It’s just disheartening when fans often seem to have more idea where the list is at than the professionals making the decisions.

And as ODN says, we seem to create holes and then go overboard with the plugging … so focused on plugging one hole that we end up creating another.

We’ve been through this several times in the past 20+ years.

We lack speed and have for years, yet we draft, Kennedy, Cera, Hewitt. We now have no tall backmen, Cox against Kemp seriously. MSD we shoul;d have gone a tall backman and a lightling fast mid. But our coaches game plan probably wouldnt help as he wouldnt change should we need him to

 

[tarczonandjane]

Fair enough. It’s just disheartening when fans often seem to have more idea where the list is at than the professionals making the decisions.

And as ODN says, we seem to create holes and then go overboard with the plugging … so focused on plugging one hole that we end up creating another.

We’ve been through this several times in the past 20+ years.

For what it’s worth, the trend around here is only that the fans only have more idea where our list is at than the club when the club is struggling. Six weeks ago, people were basically saying this list was generational. At the end of last season, there weren’t many fans pointing out deficiencies. I reckon I could trawl through the thread on trading for Cerra and I wouldn’t find too many dissenting voices. If list issues are not being picked up during good times, then I dare say the fans are just as reactive as some accuse the club of being.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Can Kemp or Cowan become options? I never considered Cowan until I saw him in the middle in the 2s earlier this year. Looked good

Do you think we would ever try them though? We just don't like change.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

I had my phone watching the doubles on 9gem, the moment they won gold gov took the mark. Honestly I just thought it had to be and gov would slot it in combination

As a friend of Peersy, I was hoping the same thing. Carlton ruin my weekends.

 

[thechamps2024]

Do you think we would ever try them though? We just don't like change.

Voss game plan A and only ever

 

[Soapy V]

Do you think we would ever try them though? We just don't like change.

I am really hoping for a change in attitude this coming pre season

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

For what it’s worth, the trend around here is only that the fans only have more idea where our list is at than the club when the club is struggling. Six weeks ago, people were basically saying this list was generational. At the end of last season, there weren’t many fans pointing out deficiencies. I reckon I could trawl through the thread on trading for Cerra and I wouldn’t find too many dissenting voices. If list issues are not being picked up during good times, then I dare say the fans are just as reactive as some accuse the club of being.

I've been banging on about lack of leg speed for years. Our best application of our game plan can overcome this and at times, it looked like we might be able to, because it was all about effort.

I also raised my concerns about picking up another midfielder who lacked pace. When Cerra was going well, I came around a little bit. When all else fails, pace is king though.

At the end of the day, you can only go off results. Given where we are right now, the club has got something wrong. So if they know the problems, they need to address the problems.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I am really hoping for a change in attitude this coming pre season

Yeah, act when we know we should. The opposition keeps improving and innovating. We can't go slow when we've identified issues.

We announced last year we were going to address our durability issues. We delisted Philp, and kept Marchbank, Martin, Cuningham, Sam Durdin. Sure, contracts come into it, but we didn't add cover for their positions.

Now we have a situation where we are top heavy with elite players who don't look elite when surrounded by average players and a lack of run. All of our cap goes to these guys. They are all comfortable and want to stay so we have no way to secure draft picks to trade for missing pieces. We are counting on finding gold in fringe players and late draft picks.

 

[Soapy V]

For what it’s worth, the trend around here is only that the fans only have more idea where our list is at than the club when the club is struggling. Six weeks ago, people were basically saying this list was generational. At the end of last season, there weren’t many fans pointing out deficiencies. I reckon I could trawl through the thread on trading for Cerra and I wouldn’t find too many dissenting voices. If list issues are not being picked up during good times, then I dare say the fans are just as reactive as some accuse the club of being.

Winning hides a lot of problems

This year has felt to me like we have got through and had wins on the back of some talent. I don’t think we have played one game that was as good as any of our wins late last year. Certainly not system wise

I thought last off season a lot of people were asking for some more run and a KPD as a minimum

 

[BringFevBack2021]

100% we need to finish the cleanout, and honestly, if this club is serious, everyone, besides Cripps, should be up for trade if the right offer comes around.

McKay, TDK, Curnow, Weitering and Walsh are all completely irreplaceable

Let’s not overreact