Prediction 2024 Round 1 Team

[BORIS332]

SDK wasn't gifted games.

He got 1 game in 2021. He started 2022 based on good form in the practice matches and a lack of other options. He was clearly best 22. He then received coaches votes in his 5th, 9th, 10th and 11th games of the year in just his 3rd season on the list.

Neale has played 5 career games in his first 3 seasons. Going into his 4th season he showed glimpses in the practice games but clearly doesn't deserve a spot given the superior performances of others. He will be given a chance at some point this year due to injuries or managing others. But he needs to take it with both hands and demand he get picked like SDK did. Not just expect to be played in spite of his form not deserving it.

Let's just conveniently omit that SDK was the only KPD on our list above 193cm.

 

[BORIS332]

Of course… but let’s name them.

Contesting marking is important… He isnt great at that.

Crashing packs as a key forward is important… He isn’t great a that.

Chasing and applying pressure is important… He isn’t great at that.

Going into the ruck for him could be important… He isn’t great at that.

If he is below par in those other considerations I’d at least want him getting the job done in what should be a full forwards most important job, and that’s kicking goals… and he isn’t great at that either.

I don’t think he should be playing until he shows some great VFL form and kicks a few bags.

If you can't see the value in blooding a 21-year old, 203cm monster with an elite running capacity as a third tall then you're beyond help.

 

[Mr Meow]

Rohan isn't in the side for his ground ball gets, is he?

The role he plays is as a marking target and pressure forward, that's a role Neale can play, what does ground ball gets have to do with that role?

Who cares if Neale can't do everything Rohan can do? Rohan can't do everything Neale can do, e.g. pinch-hit in the ruck. The only thing that matters is they both have the attributes to play the 3rd tall forward role.

I would rather Rohan in the ruck than Neale.

 

[numbwombat]

Rohan isn't in the side for his ground ball gets, is he?

The role he plays is as a marking target and pressure forward, that's a role Neale can play, what does ground ball gets have to do with that role?

Who cares if Neale can't do everything Rohan can do? Rohan can't do everything Neale can do, e.g. pinch-hit in the ruck. The only thing that matters is they both have the attributes to play the 3rd tall forward role.

I hope Neale gets a run of games but he won’t play the same role as Rohan at all. Rohan’s function is at least as much a pressure forward as a marking third tall.

 

[D BRIDGE]

If you can't see the value in blooding a 21-year old, 203cm monster with an elite running capacity as a third tall then you're beyond help.

I’d happily play him if the time was right or if he was in banging form.

It’s R1 and I think we should be putting the strongest team on the park that we possibly can.

I just don’t think Neale is in our strongest team and gifting him games in R1 is a dangerous thing to do… I mean he’d probably need to play over Dempsey and Dempsey looks to have earnt his spot.

He is coming off a game where he had 4 possessions and didn’t touch the pill for the last 2.5 quarters of the game.

It’s hardly knocking the door down form.

Kick some bags in the VFL and come into the AFL high on confidence and in good form I reckon.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We "gifted" Esava games because he was in our best 22. There's much more competition for spots now so it's harder for Neale but he's not that close to deserving a spot at the moment.

I'm happy for us to find ways to get him 5-8 games over the season to get him up to speed and obviously if he improves that will go up. But if he's not in our best team of course he can be in the VFL for most of the year. That's generally how it works!

"Not that close" is really harsh, and it says that you either haven't watched him at VFL level, or are just a really tough judge.

He's been really, really good in a poor VFL side who couldn't hit the side of a barn with their delivery.

While you're correct that we've got a harder forward line to break into these days, unlike Esava, Kersten, Kreuger, Buzza and whoever else we've had in there over the last decade, he's actually looked a class above VFL level, all while being younger than those names too (and often, they where playing in a better side)

When he's been in the senior team, he hasn't looked amazing, but he's hardly been bad, either.

Even on the weekend, he slots 2 of those set shots and gets his free kick that Holmes took from him, and we're looking at a 3 goal game.

The point being that he's not that far off, and if we actually give him a few weeks to find his feet, then it's probably going to click for him like it has in the VFL.

SDK didn't look like SDK for his first month either, but we backed him in, and 6 weeks later he was blanketing some of the best key forwards in the game.

 

[Hamingja]

He's averaged 2.2 goals per game over the past two VFL seasons, why is a 3-goal average the magical pass mark?

The 3 goals a game would be trending for a 50+ goal season factoring in the amount of byes.

Currently his best season is what, about 30 goals. He hasn't exactly proven he is above VFL level to date when guys like Mitch Brown were kicking big bags at that level at the same age.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Id pick Mannagh, did more in a quarter than half the side we named last weekend

 

[year of the cat]

Difficult to see Neale getting games while Hawkins and Cameron are fit and healthy. Both though will require management over the season which should give Neale opportunities to play AFL. Would hope to see him play 5-9 games this season. That would be a good springboard into next year assuming this is Hawkins’ final season.

 

[BORIS332]

The 3 goals a game would be trending for a 50+ goal season factoring in the amount of byes.

Currently his best season is what, about 30 goals. He hasn't exactly proven he is above VFL level to date when guys like Mitch Brown were kicking big bags at that level at the same age.

In 2021 he played 5 VFL games. In 2022 he played 15, and last season he played 8. And you're asking why he hasn't had a 50-goal season...

In 2022 He kicked 33 goals from his 15 games, had he played 23 games continuing his 2.2 goal per game average he would've tallied 50 goals as a 20-year old KPF.

 

[moond0g]

Rohan isn't in the side for his ground ball gets, is he?

The role he plays is as a marking target and pressure forward, that's a role Neale can play, what does ground ball gets have to do with that role?

Who cares if Neale can't do everything Rohan can do? Rohan can't do everything Neale can do, e.g. pinch-hit in the ruck. The only thing that matters is they both have the attributes to play the 3rd tall forward role.

Neale can't play a role as a pressure forward, Rohan can.

In fact, Rohan is a good contested mark and set shot, but if it weren't for his pressure he likely wouldn't be getting picked, especially with OHenry in the team as well. His pressure is what sets him apart. So, the point is, I don't think his role is one that Neale can take.

I don't disagree that at some point Neale needs to play if we think he's a long term option. But it's difficult to fit him in our forward line. The only solution I see is if Cameron roams further up the field, but this means we probably require Neale to be more of a focal point which I'm not sure he's currently good enough to be at AFL level.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Dempsey will play Rohans role early, not Neale...

 

[Footy Smarts]

"Not that close" is really harsh, and it says that you either haven't watched him at VFL level, or are just a really tough judge.

He's been really, really good in a poor VFL side who couldn't hit the side of a barn with their delivery.

I watched most of the VFL games last year and I never thought he did more than play a role. He certainly didn't dominate.

Neale got 4 VFL coaches votes last year in 8 games. Saying he was "really, really good" is being exceedingly generous.

To put that in perspective Ceglar got 20 votes in 4 games. Dempsey got 37 votes in 14 games. Heck Wylie Buzza got 14 coaches votes in the VFL last year.

Clearly the club like what they see. He looked good against the Dogs in the last round last year. But he's, unsurprisingly, miles off usurping Cameron, Hawkins or Blicavs for a tall forward or 2nd ruck role. And he's well behind guys like Dempsey and Clark based on performance. So no he's not that close to our best team right now.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I watched most of the VFL games last year and I never thought he did more than play a role. He certainly didn't dominate.

Neale got 4 VFL coaches votes last year in 8 games. Saying he was "really, really good" is being exceedingly generous.

To put that in perspective Ceglar got 20 votes in 4 games. Dempsey got 37 votes in 14 games. Heck Wylie Buzza got 14 coaches votes in the VFL last year.

Clearly the club like what they see. He looked good against the Dogs in the last round last year. But he's, unsurprisingly, miles off usurping Cameron, Hawkins or Blicavs for a tall forward or 2nd ruck role. And he's well behind guys like Dempsey and Clark based on performance. So no he's not that close to our best team right now.

I love Jhye, we all do, and he was impressive on the weekend.

He's ahead of Neale purely because of how strong our forward line is versus how weak our midfield is.

You can't do this whole "I need to see more" act and then throw Clark's name ahead of him. Dempsey I'll give you, as he was sensational in the VFL last year.

On what they've shown right now at VFL level, Neale is miles ahead of Clark, and I'm a Clark fan.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Id pick Mannagh, did more in a quarter than half the side we named last weekend

That guys so silky when he gets the ball.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

I love Jhye, we all do, and he was impressive on the weekend.

He's ahead of Neale purely because of how strong our forward line is versus how weak our midfield is.

You can't do this whole "I need to see more" act and then throw Clark's name ahead of him. Dempsey I'll give you, as he was sensational in the VFL last year.

On what they've shown right now at VFL level, Neale is miles ahead of Clark, and I'm a Clark fan.

After seeing the match simulation on the weekend, albeit a match simulation, i'm on the Clark bandwagon big time tbh. Don't think Neale is miles ahead of Clark if at all. Part of me would like to see Neale play ahead of Rohan though just because ones on the way in ones on the way out and he could benefit stringing some afl games together.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

After seeing the match simulation on the weekend, albeit a match simulation, i'm on the Clark bandwagon big time tbh. Don't think Neale is miles ahead of Clark if at all. Part of me would like to see Neale play ahead of Rohan though just because ones on the way in ones on the way out and he could benefit stringing some afl games together.

My point was Footy Smarts whole argument regarding Neale is based on runs on the board in the VFL.

If we're playing that game, Neale is ahead of Clark by every objective measure. He can't have that both ways.

Think it's important to note too, neither BORIS332 or I are saying Neale should play ahead of Hawkins, Cameron, or O Henry.

What we're saying is that if he's battling for that 4th spot with Rohan, it's negligent to have a 4th year key forward rotting away in the VFL when we're about to have a Hawkins sized hole there in a few months time, and he's already proven that leaving him in the VFL isn't going to help his development.

Stengle, Close, Miers, & Dempsey is plenty in terms of speed, pressure and crumbing ability.

Even if it means Neale isn't in our best side if we're a premiership threat come August/September, at this point in time we have to try it.

Like I said before, SDK wasn't SDK either until he had 6 weeks of consistent game time to actually find his feet.

Once he had that, he blossomed and looked like a completely different player to his first couple games.

 

[FootyLad0]

My point was Footy Smarts whole argument regarding Neale is based on runs on the board in the VFL.

If we're playing that game, Neale is ahead of Clark by every objective measure. He can't have that both ways.

Think it's important to note too, neither BORIS332 or I are saying Neale should play ahead of Hawkins, Cameron, or O Henry.

What we're saying is that if he's battling for that 4th spot with Rohan, it's negligent to have a 4th year key forward rotting away in the VFL when we're about to have a Hawkins sized hole there in a few months time, and he's already proven that leaving him in the VFL isn't going to help his development.

Stengle, Close, Miers, & Dempsey is plenty in terms of speed, pressure and crumbing ability.

Even if it means Neale isn't in our best side if we're a premiership threat come August/September, at this point in time we have to try it.

I agree that we need to bring Neale in this year, but purely as a swap for Hawkins or Jez missing games.

He's not displacing Close, Stengle, Miers, Henry or Rohan and that already puts us at 7 forwards with Hawk and Jez included.

Dempsey is in while Rohan is out due to pressure needed as a defensive forward.

Hopefully with Mannagh he's trialed through the midfield as well. Clark should be a certainty based on preseason, he's gonna be a future midfield star.

Tough tough ask to slot Neale in anywhere. It would require a KPF to not be playing.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

My point was Footy Smarts whole argument regarding Neale is based on runs on the board in the VFL.

If we're playing that game, Neale is ahead of Clark by every objective measure. He can't have that both ways.

Think it's important to note too, neither BORIS332 or I are saying Neale should play ahead of Hawkins, Cameron, or O Henry.

What we're saying is that if he's battling for that 4th spot with Rohan, it's negligent to have a 4th year key forward rotting away in the VFL when we're about to have a Hawkins sized hole there in a few months time, and he's already proven that leaving him in the VFL isn't going to help his development.

Stengle, Close, Miers, & Dempsey is plenty in terms of speed, pressure and crumbing ability.

Even if it means Neale isn't in our best side if we're a premiership threat come August/September, at this point in time we have to try it.

Like I said before, SDK wasn't SDK either until he had 6 weeks of consistent game time to actually find his feet.

Once he had that, he blossomed and looked like a completely different player to his first couple games.

Yeah I agree with this. You can't rate everyone by VFL stats metrics including Clark. Some players, not all, just need to be thrown in the deep end at AFL level and need to be underwater long enough that they eventually have to swim to the surface lol. Most people would predict that these two have a future in our first team. They need to play as many games ASAP, possibly at the expense of players like Rohan, Duncan, Tuoy, Kolo etc. All still decent players, but on their way out. Other teams do it, Port for example and look how good that midfield is now. We're getting to a point where some of the seniors need to be well and truly earning their spot otherwise the young player gets favour.
Also if you don't play youngsters enough, they'll probably eventually leave which creates even worse issues.

 

[moond0g]

I love Jhye, we all do, and he was impressive on the weekend.

He's ahead of Neale purely because of how strong our forward line is versus how weak our midfield is.

You can't do this whole "I need to see more" act and then throw Clark's name ahead of him. Dempsey I'll give you, as he was sensational in the VFL last year.

On what they've shown right now at VFL level, Neale is miles ahead of Clark, and I'm a Clark fan.

Isn’t that the whole point though? If we had no Hawkins or Cameron, then Neale would be a lock to get games this year. But we do have Hawkins and Cameron, as well as OHenry, Rohan, Close, Stengle, Miers. That’s a pretty hard forward line to break into.

In the same way that people are bullish about Conway, and there’s an expectation that he’ll play games this year. But if we had Tim English in our side, he wouldn’t get picked, and no one would question that. It’s just fortunate for him that Stanley is a lot easier to displace.

For all the young guys (and old guys) trying to find a spot, it’s just as much about who else is there as it is about how good they are.

 

[Footy Smarts]

My point was Footy Smarts whole argument regarding Neale is based on runs on the board in the VFL.

No your argument was based on runs on the board at VFL level. I was just pointing out saying Neale has been really good at VFL level is overstating things when he got all of 4 coaches votes last year.

Clark is ahead of Neale because he's had 2 really good practice matches against AFL competition and looks a flat out star in the making. He bashed the door down in a way Neale never has as of yet.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Isn’t that the whole point though? If we had no Hawkins or Cameron, then Neale would be a lock to get games this year. But we do have Hawkins and Cameron, as well as OHenry, Rohan, Close, Stengle, Miers. That’s a pretty hard forward line to break into.

In the same way that people are bullish about Conway, and there’s an expectation that he’ll play games this year. But if we had Tim English in our side, he wouldn’t get picked, and no one would question that. It’s just fortunate for him that Stanley is a lot easier to displace.

For all the young guys (and old guys) trying to find a spot, it’s just as much about who else is there as it is about how good they are.

I think we will approach this season with a view to bring along as much of the new talent that is ready as possible - Neale , Dempsey , Clark , Mannagh , Mullin and Conway should all play enough to get them prepared for 2025.
That should be achievable if we rest our veterans or have them play in the VFL on occasion.
I see 2024 as a transition year.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

No your argument was based on runs on the board at VFL level. I was just pointing out saying Neale has been really good at VFL level is overstating things when he got all of 4 coaches votes last year.

Clark is ahead of Neale because he's had 2 really good practice matches against AFL competition and looks a flat out star in the making. He bashed the door down in a way Neale never has as of yet.

You're taking the piss right?

You can't seriously think Clark playing two decent practice matches outweighs the production of Neale's VFL form.

I hate that you're making me do this, because I love Jhye and have defended him against others on this board.

The reality is though, he's had two sub 20 possession practice games. We loved them, and it's a massive step in the right direction, but that's all they are.

Two promising games doesn't outweight a season from Neale that was tracking for 50 goals.

Surely can see the irony here right?

You can't on one hand say you need to see more from Neale, and then on the other say two decent practice matches makes a player "a star in the making" who's "bashed down the door".

 

[Footy Smarts]

Like I said before, SDK wasn't SDK either until he had 6 weeks of consistent game time to actually find his feet.

Once he had that, he blossomed and looked like a completely different player to his first couple games.

That's not really true though.

He was concussed in round 1. In round 3 against Collingwood he gave off 2 great handballs to set up goals in our comeback.

In round 4 he had 8 intercepts and 4 contested marks and people here were giving him votes:

MVP - MVP Voting Thread for game v Brisbane

5 4 3 2 1 The above format only please...whose your best 5? 5 Blicavs 4 Smith 3 Duncan 2 Hawkins 1 Atkins

www.bigfooty.com

Look Neale looked handy against Carlton. And poor against Essendon. He's got some skills. But there's no way he's done enough to just be given 5+ consecutive games in the hope he comes good. When he gets his chance he needs to take it. Unfortunately he hasn't yet.

 

[Footy Smarts]

You're taking the piss right?

You can't seriously think Clark playing two decent practice matches outweighs the production of Neale's VFL form.

I hate that you're making me do this, because I love Jhye and have defended him against others on this board.

The reality is though, he's had two sub 20 possession practice games. We loved them, and it's a massive step in the right direction, but that's all they are.

Two promising games doesn't outweight a season from Neale that was tracking for 50 goals.

Surely can see the irony here right?

You can't on one hand say you need to see more from Neale, and then on the other say two decent practice matches makes a player "a star in the making" who's "bashed down the door".

Watch the Essendon game again. Clark was probably our second best player behind Holmes.

I don't care what the stats say. Watch the game and see the impact he had. He dominated. And yes doing that while lining up against quality AFL players massively outweighs a good but not dominant VFL season 2 years ago.