USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

[Chief]

 

[Happy Mastenator]

September 10. That's the next date that matters.

Wil see if Trump shows up to the debate. If he doesn't then his tough man imagine takes a big hit. If he does, then will all depend on if there's a decisive "perceived" winner.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Nate Silver has some good poll forecasting, and its generally respected from both sides. He uses a similar model to FiveThirtyEight, and actually considers factors that influences polling, when weighing up their data.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

[happy_eagle]

The new house is sworn in before the EC results are ratified. It is not guaranteed that in event of EC tie that Republicans would still control the house. A EC tie would mean Harris is expected to have won the national vote by around 3%, that also suggest Democrats receiving more votes in congress nationally and possibly a slim Democratic majority in the house.

Sadly I think the Republicans will hold the house

 

[_Cerberus_]

September 10. That's the next date that matters.

Wil see if Trump shows up to the debate. If he doesn't then his tough man imagine takes a big hit. If he does, then will all depend on if there's a decisive "perceived" winner.

Harris should still show up to the debate, even if Trump pulls out. Will make him look like an even bigger fool.

He doesn't want to go on ABC because he knows the other networks are mostly owned by conservative people. He knows if people don't rig it in his favor, he will be exposed.

Very hypocritical of him and his base to accuse other networks of bias, when the majority of them are in his own pocket. And never ask him serious questions on policy, or cut out live interviews when he starts to make himself look stupid.

 

[GreyCrow]

Nate Silver has some good poll forecasting, and its generally respected from both sides. He uses a similar model to FiveThirtyEight, and actually considers factors that influences polling, when weighing up their data.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

( Silver started 538)

What I do like about his second graph - is the growth from last month to the last poll - its all blue and its all good numbers. Not great but trending bigly

ie all the swing states are swinging but will they swing enough by November

 

[_Cerberus_]

( Silver started 538)

What I do like about his second graph - is the growth from last month to the last poll - its all blue and its all good numbers. Not great but trending bigly

ie all the swing states are swinging but will they swing enough by November

I think the most interesting thing is, that just weeks ago, there was only six "swing states" in play. That people had all their eyes on, in terms of impacting the election. Now there is up to 9 states that are now in focus, with three new ones on the watch list.

Not sure why Virginia is on the list given it is already blue, and the margin seems to be wider now.

But North Carolina is suddenly in play.

Whilst Florida should have a safe margin for Trump. But you cannot ignore the gains Harris has made. With over 70 days until the election, it will be a question of whether Harris can keep making gains. Would it be enough to turn Florida into a battleground? Perhaps not. But there is still plenty of time to make things happen. Maybe other states could end up coming into focus, such as Texas.

I sure hope the Democrats are at least being smart and having at least a couple of rallies in other states that could be in play, instead of just the 6 swing states.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I think the most interesting thing is, that just weeks ago, there was only six "swing states" in play. That people had all their eyes on, in terms of impacting the election. Now there is up to 9 states that are now in focus, with three new ones on the watch list.

Not sure why Virginia is on the list given it is already blue, and the margin seems to be wider now.

But North Carolina is suddenly in play.

Whilst Florida should have a safe margin for Trump. But you cannot ignore the gains Harris has made. With over 70 days until the election, it will be a question of whether Harris can keep making gains. Would it be enough to turn Florida into a battleground? Perhaps not. But there is still plenty of time to make things happen. Maybe other states could end up coming into focus, such as Texas.

I sure hope the Democrats are at least being smart and having at least a couple of rallies in other states that could be in play, instead of just the 6 swing states.

Florida I'm pessimistic on turning Blue, but the thing going for the Dems in both Florida and Texas is that their Senators (Scott and Cruz) are up, and both a very unpopular because they are among the worst people, so you're not going to see them driving turnout to help Trump. In fact it might help depress GOP turnout.

Having said that it's highly unlikely to happen, but if either of those swing this election is well and truly over.

 

[Hornberger]

He uses a similar model to FiveThirtyEight

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

It is the FiveThirtyEight model but he no longer owns the trademark to the FiveThirtyEight name

 

[Maggie5]

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will provide a pathway to victory without needing any of the rest.
Would be a 1 vote EC win in that case, which would no doubt cause Trump to call the election fake again.

Agree and early days, think this will be very close and lots of court cases if it goes against Trump.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Agree and early days, think this will be very close and lots of court cases if it goes against Trump.

In good news for all, the Supreme Court has precedent in awarding GOP elections, because that's what they do (see: Bush + Florida + Hanging Chad) so i think we can all rest assured the right/just outcome will be reached if it gets to the Supreme Court.

 

[10571z]

Ah it makes sense now why they are so desperate to stop her from doing interviews

 

[GreyCrow]

Ah it makes sense now why they are so desperate to stop her from doing interviews

It was a stupid racist question

And she initially stumbled because she was shocked the dickhead would ask it

But listen to the whole thing - you know the bit she answered

 

[happy_eagle]

Agree and early days, think this will be very close and lots of court cases if it goes against Trump.

There was a concerning piece a while back from Rachel Maddow (so take that with whatever grain of salt you believe it deserves) about Trumps recent rhetoric about "not needing votes anymore", and linking this to the past 4 years and how he has managed to infiltrate key legislature and judiciary branches in certain states with election denying MAGA republicans.

I think we are a real chance of having rogue electors this time round, disregarding the results of a given state.

 

[GreyCrow]

And until the election is certified Joe Biden remains President

 

[darrenmorgan]

There was a concerning piece a while back from Rachel Maddow (so take that with whatever grain of salt you believe it deserves) about Trumps recent rhetoric about "not needing votes anymore", and linking this to the past 4 years and how he has managed to infiltrate key legislature and judiciary branches in certain states with election denying MAGA republicans.

I think we are a real chance of having rogue electors this time round, disregarding the results of a given state.

Georgia is where it will happen.

 

[10571z]

It was a stupid racist question

And she initially stumbled because she was shocked the dickhead would ask it

But listen to the whole thing - you know the bit she answered

Haha? Racist question? How

 

[Baldur]

There was a concerning piece a while back from Rachel Maddow (so take that with whatever grain of salt you believe it deserves) about Trumps recent rhetoric about "not needing votes anymore", and linking this to the past 4 years and how he has managed to infiltrate key legislature and judiciary branches in certain states with election denying MAGA republicans.

I think we are a real chance of having rogue electors this time round, disregarding the results of a given state.

I agree, the plan is for states that vote for the Democrats but have Trumpists in place to refuse certification at the state level. Stopping anybody but Trump reaching the required votes, which means the house decides who wins. The house is controlled by the GOP. Attempts to force states to certify by legal means to be blocked by the Trumpist supreme court.

 

[Baldur]

And until the election is certified Joe Biden remains President

If no candidate reaches the required votes and therefore is certified as the winner, the house elects their choice out of top three candidates.

 

[happy_eagle]

If no candidate reaches the required votes and therefore is certified as the winner, the house elects their choice out of top three candidates.

Will be a big test for some of the non MAGA republicans whether they cross the aisle on that one or not.

 

[magpie_marty]

Haha? Racist question? How

Was J6 a racist event or Antifa just curious?

 

[Satan]

Harris should still show up to the debate, even if Trump pulls out. Will make him look like an even bigger fool.

He doesn't want to go on ABC because he knows the other networks are mostly owned by conservative people. He knows if people don't rig it in his favor, he will be exposed.

Very hypocritical of him and his base to accuse other networks of bias, when the majority of them are in his own pocket. And never ask him serious questions on policy, or cut out live interviews when he starts to make himself look stupid.

Disney owns abc so trump will whinge

 

[blackshadow]

Ah it makes sense now why they are so desperate to stop her from doing interviews

Comprehension isn't your strong suit is it?

He didn't ask about Trump's policies at all. The question was what would it do to race relations if Trump was elected.

She didn't engage on what Trump would do, rather she spoke of the importance of diversity and acknowledged a MLK anniversary.

She handled a ham-fisted and impertinent question pretty well I thought.

 

[10571z]

Comprehension isn't your strong suit is it?

He didn't ask about Trump's policies at all. The question was what would it do to race relations if Trump was elected.

She didn't engage on what Trump would do, rather she spoke of the importance of diversity and acknowledged a MLK anniversary.

She handled a ham-fisted and impertinent question pretty well I thought.

Well and truely comprehended the question. But a hilarious answer of nothing.

 

[blackshadow]

Well and truely comprehended the question. But a hilarious answer of nothing.

Can you imagine trump ever advocating inclusion and diversity?

 

[happy_eagle]

Well and truely comprehended the question. But a hilarious answer of nothing.

You're right, cause if theres one thing politicians are known for its directly answering questions.