USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

[Chief]

Continued in Part 2

USA - 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

Continued from Part 1 - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2024-us-presidential-election-trump-vs-harris.1383317/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Good to see #trumpisacoward trending as he tries to back out of the debate.

Harris team going hard

 

[big_e]

Do the secret service on the front cover get royalties for the use of their images?

You don't get royalties if you're in the photo, only if you own the photo.

From memory, that's Associated Press.

And I seriously doubt Trump will pay them either.

 

[Satan]

You don't get royalties if you're in the photo, only if you own the photo.

From memory, that's Associated Press.

And I seriously doubt Trump will pay them either.

was being sarcastic , trump doesnt pay his lawyers

 

[bourbons]

I hate to say it but with RFK, Tulsi and other Democrats wisening up and jumping ship to the movement that actually cares about the working class, it's hard to see Trump losing from here. I wish the Dems had made it a contest by choosing a candidate who got more than 3% of their own party's vote in the 2020 primary. It seems they've thrown in the towel to rebuild for 2028 unfortunately

"Tulsi and other Democrats"

Ahhh you're good value m8

 

[bourbons]

The above will be requoted at least 53 times in the next 11 hours and 42 minutes.

Not nearly enough imo

Tulsi a democrat, wowee

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Not nearly enough imo

Tulsi a democrat, wowee

Lol. She's well known to be funded by the Russians.
Harris ended her already over being a plant.

 

[bourbons]

Yep, plenty of democrats literally host Fox News shows don't they

 

[Maggie5]

Two latest polls NYT and WP.

 

[happy_eagle]

Two latest polls NYT and WP.

View attachment 2093322

View attachment 2093323

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will provide a pathway to victory without needing any of the rest.
Would be a 1 vote EC win in that case, which would no doubt cause Trump to call the election fake again.

 

[Saint]

Very much neck and neck, even after Harris's recent bumps. They seem to have plateaued and now we await to see if Trump gets an RFK bump.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will provide a pathway to victory without needing any of the rest.
Would be a 1 vote EC win in that case, which would no doubt cause Trump to call the election fake again.

1 electoral college vote, ~7+ million in popular vote. What a system!

 

[happy_eagle]

1 electoral college vote, ~7+ million in popular vote. What a system!

I know that the system proposed under an Australian republic would likely be different, but I feel like the chaos of US Politics could hinder the likely success of a republic vote over here. Too much fear that it could lead to a Trump like figure becoming our head of state.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I know that the system proposed under an Australian republic would likely be different, but I feel like the chaos of US Politics could hinder the likely success of a republic vote over here. Too much fear that it could lead to a Trump like figure becoming our head of state.

You make the head of state the current governor-general role. Appointed by parliament. Mainly ceremonial and rubber stamping the parliament. No need to have anything that would lead to a US type situation.

 

[Dazzler9]

You make the head of state the current governor-general role. Appointed by parliament. Mainly ceremonial and rubber stamping the parliament. No need to have anything that would lead to a US type situation.

That's exactly what was proposed last time. And the scare campaign was that "politicians will be choosing your Head of State!"

 

[Happy Mastenator]

That's exactly what was proposed last time. And the scare campaign was that "politicians will be choosing your Head of State!"

I was at Uni with the head of my law school Greg Craven heading up the vote yes on the Republican referendum.

Heard a lot about the politics of it. The referendum was set up to fail at the time, the question should have simply been, do you want a republic, yes or no. Yes would have gotten up, then a models should have been proposed and voted on.

 

[Dazzler9]

I was at Uni with the head of my law school Greg Craven heading up the vote yes on the Republican referendum.

Heard a lot about the politics of it. The referendum was set up to fail at the time, the question should have simply been, do you want a republic, yes or no. Yes would have gotten up, then a models should have been proposed and voted on.

Indeed. We have little Johnny to thank for that.

 

[Gough]

I was at Uni with the head of my law school Greg Craven heading up the vote yes on the Republican referendum.

Heard a lot about the politics of it. The referendum was set up to fail at the time, the question should have simply been, do you want a republic, yes or no. Yes would have gotten up, then a models should have been proposed and voted on.

That nearly a quarter of a century after that referendum it's still assumed that modern Australia is incapable of deciding on the structure of a post monarchy future and that's a good enough reason to keep the status quo and barely even debate the topic any more is the really tragic legacy of that referendum.

 

[Forward Press]

Very much neck and neck, even after Harris's recent bumps. They seem to have plateaued and now we await to see if Trump gets an RFK bump.

From what I've read, the RFK bump favours Trump, but only by a fairly small margin and given he was polling at around 5% in the key states, it won't be a big issue.

The biggest issue will be energising the anti-Trump voters - his base is rusted on, they will turn out no matter what he says or does. However, Biden won in 2020 by purely not being Trump rather than a wave of enthusiasm for his presidency in itself. You'd think Harris will be going the same route, not focussing on her achievements as VP but rather not saying or doing stupid shit like Trump. The polls were always going to stabilise after the honeymoon period, importantly it's stabilised with a definite Harris lead in most national polls. The voters - in general - like the new energy that Harris/Walz is bringing.

We will see if it works in three months because as usual it's not the popular vote that matters, but the result of the battleground states, but I think it has definitely given the Democrats a fighting chance at both President and Congress after Biden was a dead man walking.

 

[bourbons]

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will provide a pathway to victory without needing any of the rest.
Would be a 1 vote EC win in that case, which would no doubt cause Trump to call the election fake again.

I get that a decisive result would be preferable for the state of that country, but that would be hilarious.

1 vote away from all his legals disappearing, his meltdown would be glorious. He's going to call it fake anyway if he goes down by any margin, bring it on I say lol

 

[happy_eagle]

Yes would have gotten up, then a models should have been proposed and voted on.

Sounds a bit like the failed approach of the voice?

 

[happy_eagle]

I get that a decisive result would be preferable for the state of that country, but that would be hilarious.

1 vote away from all his legals disappearing, his meltdown would be glorious. He's going to call it fake anyway if he goes down by any margin, bring it on I say lol

This does require Harris to hold Nebraskas 2nd district which is currently marked as a toss up but went to Biden in 2020 (why some states have multiple districts I'll never quite know, I'm sure it made more sense in the 1800s).



269 a piece and it goes to a Republican controlled house to elect Trump.

Realistically though I'd say shes a real chance at either Arizona or Nevada as well. Georgia is the new Florida in terms of it being too unpredictable to call (Florida is safely red these days)

 

[Saint]

PA and WI are still well within the margin of error, and a lot can happen in the next 3 months

 

[Hornberger]

269 a piece and it goes to a Republican controlled house to elect Trump.

The new house is sworn in before the EC results are ratified. It is not guaranteed that in event of EC tie that Republicans would still control the house. A EC tie would mean Harris is expected to have won the national vote by around 3%, that also suggest Democrats receiving more votes in congress nationally and possibly a slim Democratic majority in the house.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

September 10. That's the next date that matters.

Wil see if Trump shows up to the debate. If he doesn't then his tough man imagine takes a big hit. If he does, then will all depend on if there's a decisive "perceived" winner.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Nate Silver has some good poll forecasting, and its generally respected from both sides. He uses a similar model to FiveThirtyEight, and actually considers factors that influences polling, when weighing up their data.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model