AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 1

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[NYRB]

AFL Fantasy and Disposals

Kako 70+ AFL Fantasy $2.10 (1.5u)
Kako 80+ AFL Fantasy $3.78 (1u)

Kako 14+ Disposals $2.80 (1u)
Kako 19+ Disposals $9 (0.50u)

Not much form to go off except pre-season form. And is in my Fantasy team to start off Round 1. I think he is player for the big lights.

 

[pacemaker]

Western Australias number 1 sports betting company, TAB Touch WA are offering a $10 free hit for the Same Game Multi for Round 1 between Hawthorn and Essendon. And no FootyStar#1 I dont work for a bookie, as you queried me in the last weeks Round 0 post.

Just a little bit of promotion for our good friends from TAB Touch WA.

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View attachment 2248740

Thanks for the heads up. I'll take

 

[Rank]

B365 free hit:

Kako 2+
Watson AGS
Gresham AGS
Newcombe 20+
Merrett 25+
@9

Gresham sub

 

[NYRB]

Merrett to get a tag placed on him from Connor Nash. Nash did a tag job last week.

Just for a bit of fun from PointsBet

Merrett 4+ Tackles
Merrett 4+ Clearances
Merrett Under 27.5 Disposals

Odds: $4.30 (Bet refund if 1 leg fails)

Can see a world where he lands around that 25 to 27 mark. Merrett covered 4+ Clearances/4+ Tackles, 13/23 times last season. Without Worpel in there, its one less competitor. Worpel got 10 clearances last time as a direct comparison and was winning those hard gets.


Merrett Straight Up 8+ Clearances at $6.50 (0.5u).

Merrett To win Clearances Group at $7.00 consisting of: him, Newcombe, Will Day and Durham. (0.5u).

 

[Selim]

Wizard 3-5 TS @4.60, 12, 34

Langford 2-4 @2.40, 6, 18

Draper 1-3

 

[taurus]

Go Kako!

 

[the_big_sav]

Do tab refund multis if a player is subbed out in first half?

 

[the_big_sav]

Just waiting on a moore goal

 

[the_big_sav]

Giddy up

 

[Robo87]

Just waiting on a moore goal

 

[taurus]

Woo hoo, chucked the bonus bet on Roosters win over the panthers @ $11!

 

[Robo87]

Well I did ask for you the_big_sav ,

 

[the_big_sav]

Got Curtis for 3+ tomorrow @ 7.50 with sb

I think he's going to have a break out year and kick 50 for the year.

He's usually 4th line of betting for north forwards but as usual I think once he has a game of 3 or 4 he'll be short rest of the year. Might be worth the loophole 1/2/3 miss 1 leg money back if you can get it

 

[taurus]

Got Curtis for 3+ tomorrow @ 7.50 with sb

I think he's going to have a break out year and kick 50 for the year.

He's usually 4th line of betting for north forwards but as usual I think once he has a game of 3 or 4 he'll be short rest of the year. Might be worth the loophole 1/2/3 miss 1 leg money back if you can get it

I like it as I rate Curtis. Cheers

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Got Curtis for 3+ tomorrow @ 7.50 with sb

I think he's going to have a break out year and kick 50 for the year.

He's usually 4th line of betting for north forwards but as usual I think once he has a game of 3 or 4 he'll be short rest of the year. Might be worth the loophole 1/2/3 miss 1 leg money back if you can get it

Any particular reason why you think this will be a breakout year for Curtis?

Has he been training the house down?

Did Clarko indicate he'd spend more time playing as the deepest forward?

Or is it just a hunch kind of thing?

I've lost a lot of money betting on Curtis over the past couple years, because I thought he was 'due'.

In 59 games he has kicked 3+ on six occasions, and two of those were against a hapless West Coast.

Sadly I think he will go down as one of those coulda woulda shoulda types.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Atavistic]

On the unders for Melbourne v GWS Sunday as the weather around game time still looks bad.

Degen multi for Saturday:

Naughton, Darcy 4 each, Curtis, Zurhaar, Richards 2 each @ 901 (SB free hit)

Bailey Williams 8-10 marks @ 3.80/10
Bailey Dale 8-10 marks @ 3/7 (TAB)

Naughton 8 marks, Sheezel 8, Duryea 6 @ 20 (PB)

 

[NYRB]

AFL Fantasy and Disposals

Kako 70+ AFL Fantasy $2.10 (1.5u)
Kako 80+ AFL Fantasy $3.78 (1u)

Kako 14+ Disposals $2.80 (1u)
Kako 19+ Disposals $9 (0.50u)

Merrett 4+ Tackles
Merrett 4+ Clearances
Merrett Under 27.5 Disposals

Odds: $4.30 (Bet refund if 1 leg fails)

Can see a world where he lands around that 25 to 27 mark. Merrett covered 4+ Clearances/4+ Tackles, 13/23 times last season. Without Worpel in there, its one less competitor. Worpel got 10 clearances last time as a direct comparison and was winning those hard gets.


Merrett Straight Up 8+ Clearances at $6.50 (0.5u).

Merrett To win Clearances Group at $7.00 consisting of: him, Newcombe, Will Day and Durham. (0.5u).

Merrett finishes on 3 tackles and spent large amounts of time in the forward line last night.

Kako finishes on 14 disposals was the lone winner for me last night.

-2.2u

Kako finishes on 51 Fantasy.

 

[the_big_sav]

Any particular reason why you think this will be a breakout year for Curtis?

Has he been training the house down?

Did Clarko indicate he'd spend more time playing as the deepest forward?

Or is it just a hunch kind of thing?

I've lost a lot of money betting on Curtis over the past couple years, because I thought he was 'due'.

In 59 games he has kicked 3+ on six occasions, and two of those were against a hapless West Coast.

Sadly I think he will go down as one of those coulda woulda shoulda types.

I hope I'm wrong.

Bit of a hunch. He's been in the system about 4 years but I think this is the year it's clicks for him. Has shown potential to take the next step. Hopefully with north progressing he is one of the benefactors of it. Also having larkey darling zurharr should give him a favourable match up most weeks
I've also lost on him too haha

 

[the_big_sav]

On the unders for Melbourne v GWS Sunday as the weather around game time still looks bad.

Degen multi for Saturday:

Naughton, Darcy 4 each, Curtis, Zurhaar, Richards 2 each @ 901 (SB free hit)

Bailey Williams 8-10 marks @ 3.80/10
Bailey Dale 8-10 marks @ 3/7 (TAB)

Naughton 8 marks, Sheezel 8, Duryea 6 @ 20 (PB)

Like the marks!

 

[HTPunter]

View attachment 2249518
View attachment 2249519
Didn't play last year: Saad, Silvagni, Haynes, Camporeale, Cottrell, Evans, McKay, De Koning, Cerra, Fogarty

Didn't play this year: Newman, Lewis Young, Cincotta, E. Hollands, Owies, M. Kennedy, Pittonet, Binns, Durdin, Carroll

I don't think these differences between last night where they were a 48 point favourite, compared to late last year when they were a 3 point underdog to bottom 4 West Coast, are anywhere near enough to justify such a swing; even if their opponent was quite a bit stronger.

Maybe it's just me

Yeah I didn’t name the bulk of those players because they’re shit

Saad, McKay, Cerra, TDK, Fogarty
V
Newman, Hollands

 

[HTPunter]

Anyone expecting some swings in that Freo side today? To my mind they’ve named 9 defenders

Pearce, Ryan, Clark, Draper, Walker, Chapman are locks.
Cox, Wagner, Worner are the other 3, with Worner a significant sub candidate.

I know Longmuir eats white bread for breakfast and gets a rush of adrenaline from doing so, but do we think any of those 3 could go up forward? Cox the most likely?

 

[HTPunter]

Might just be better to take Freo defenders fantasy +- marks if you want shitty TAB odds. Ryan to Clark to Wagner to Ryan to Cox to Clark (they’ve got to half back).

 

[Modra6]

Darcy Fort for me today, should play predominantly forward and always seems to have a couple shots when he does play

1 - $2.22
2 - $7.50
3 - $26

 

[Rank]

Jones 1, Ginnivan 1, Watson 1, Newcombe 20 d, McGrath 20 d, Merrett 25 d, Scrimshaw 15 d. @9.20 bet365 free hit

Scrimshaw friendly fire injury ****s the multi.

 

[Rank]

Jones 2+
Ginnivan 2+ @12.75 SB free hit
Just watch the campaigners kick 1.2 and a out of bounds

In the last Quarter Jones was by himself at the top of the goal square but Caddy under kicks it straight to the defender.