balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 2
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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Tailed on pointsbet
- Oct 6, 2011
- 39,073
- 12,218
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- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
2 Bets refunded and 1 loss. -1u down
Mason Cox with a miss for goal in the 1st half.
Membrey with a missed shot from about 25 metres out and a fumble in the goal square means the $38 shot misses by silly elementary mistakes for AFL level.
missed the odds but ****ing love the analysis
- May 20, 2016
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11/51 still available on pointsbet
- May 20, 2016
- 10,050
- 14,928
- AFL Club
- GWS
Keeler still available at 365 for 34 3+. 8 2+. Would get on good odds while still can
Thrillthorpe & Nartin trains today.
Nic Martin should get a lot of attacking 50 time - Dons missing Langford, Stringer & Guelfi from 2024 starting forward 6, with Jones pushing up to a wing. With Prior, & Shiel add to McGrath/Reid/McKay/Redman I reckon Martin pushes up the ground, while Roberts & Duursma are the back half wingers.
On for 2-5
Thilthorpe repeat of last week, probably disappointment again with a “nearly” game but gotta be on after last week
Nic Martin should get a lot of attacking 50 time - Dons missing Langford, Stringer & Guelfi from 2024 starting forward 6, with Jones pushing up to a wing. With Prior, & Shiel add to McGrath/Reid/McKay/Redman I reckon Martin pushes up the ground, while Roberts & Duursma are the back half wingers.
On for 2-5
Thilthorpe repeat of last week, probably disappointment again with a “nearly” game but gotta be on after last week
Also have been setting myself a bit of a “doesn’t matter if I lose” challenge with a rollover on fantasy markets on Pointsbet
Started with $10 Thursday, aiming for 2-3 players to get to $1.85-1.90 odds.
Todays first game leg is $38.94 on Laird 90 Caldwell 80 Soligo 70 @ $1.93 boosted to return $75.32
Started with $10 Thursday, aiming for 2-3 players to get to $1.85-1.90 odds.
Todays first game leg is $38.94 on Laird 90 Caldwell 80 Soligo 70 @ $1.93 boosted to return $75.32
- Jun 16, 2018
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- May 20, 2016
- 10,050
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my entire punting career
Dawson 2/3 @ 5.50 / 19 PB - Kicked 2.2 last week and 2.1 preseason game
Dawson / Keays / Rachele 2 each @ 30 PB - BB if 1 fails.
Dawson / Keays / Rachele 2 each @ 30 PB - BB if 1 fails.
- Oct 6, 2011
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- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Essendon v Adelaide
He might get Essendons best defender, but Fogarty showed last week, he will get volume against the best defender, in this case I think its Ben McKay today.
Fogarty 2+ Goals
Walker AGS in the 1st Half
Thilthorpe AGS in the 1st half
Odds: $5.00 (1u)
Bombers didnt play that bad last week but Ridley and Kyle Langford are big losses. Ridley would have taken one of the three big power forwards.
Only reason Thilthorpe cant get a bag this week, is if he has to play more up the ground. Probably would have cleared 5+ last week, had he played all forward. And Essendon probably want to make it more of a lower scoring contest to give themselves a chance like the Bulldogs did to Collingwood last night. They are the only 2 reasons I can think of Thilthorpe not getting a bag today.
He might get Essendons best defender, but Fogarty showed last week, he will get volume against the best defender, in this case I think its Ben McKay today.
Fogarty 2+ Goals
Walker AGS in the 1st Half
Thilthorpe AGS in the 1st half
Odds: $5.00 (1u)
Bombers didnt play that bad last week but Ridley and Kyle Langford are big losses. Ridley would have taken one of the three big power forwards.
Only reason Thilthorpe cant get a bag this week, is if he has to play more up the ground. Probably would have cleared 5+ last week, had he played all forward. And Essendon probably want to make it more of a lower scoring contest to give themselves a chance like the Bulldogs did to Collingwood last night. They are the only 2 reasons I can think of Thilthorpe not getting a bag today.
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i think thilthorpe will mckay.
- Oct 6, 2011
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And a couple of additional plays:
Merrett AGS
Neal Bullen AGS
Total Under 179.5 pts
Odds: $7.75 (1u)
Probably can better if you can shop around. ANB to get a few chances on his old stomping ground and Merrett to get a goal.
1u Stake
Thilthorpe and Fogarty to Combine for 6+ Goals at $5.50. SB
0.25u stake
Thilthorpe and Fogarty to Combine for 9+ Goals at $67. SB
Think it will be a case of you can stop one, but can't stop the other today.
And taken the TAB Touch WA offer, for a max stake of $20:
Merrett AGS
Neal Bullen AGS
Total Under 179.5 pts
Odds: $7.75 (1u)
Probably can better if you can shop around. ANB to get a few chances on his old stomping ground and Merrett to get a goal.
1u Stake
Thilthorpe and Fogarty to Combine for 6+ Goals at $5.50. SB
0.25u stake
Thilthorpe and Fogarty to Combine for 9+ Goals at $67. SB
Think it will be a case of you can stop one, but can't stop the other today.
And taken the TAB Touch WA offer, for a max stake of $20:
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Like Keays like a previous poster said
3,4,5 @ 9,30,150
365
3,4,5 @ 9,30,150
365
- Oct 6, 2011
- 39,073
- 12,218
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Think in terms of strength McKay is an ideal matchup for Fogarty.
Not sure if Zach Reid listed at 202cm has the muscle one on one with the Fog. Height wise Thilthorpe and Z Reid are the exact same height.
Id be surprised if the matchups at the back weren't, so your line of thinking is right. But if Fog catches fire early in the game, I could see a direct swap for Z Reid and McKay on those Adelaide forwards. But to start off :
Z Reid v Fogarty. Fogarty should be too strong for him in a one-on-one contest.....
B McKay v Thilthorpe.
Think Wikipedia maybe shortchanging Fog for weight there. 100kg?
