AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 3

[balmainforever]

 

[GROTTO]

St kilda 100+.
$34
Sb

Fun Facts with Grotto

A St Kilda coached side by Ross Lyon, has won 3 games by 100+

 

[dontlimitme]

silvagni AGS 1.70 2+ 4.40 at neds/lads seems good

 

[Reddd]

Thomas Edwards $26/$51 3/4 tab. 3 on debut last week, can’t see him listed for 2

$41 for first goal

 

[Rank]

C Rozee 2
H Jones 2 @20.25 SB free hit

 

[demon_fanatic]

If Essendon are ever going to respond it'll be this week after all this backlash and questions.. I am willing to give them another go as they did look sharp and slick in their match vs Geelong (albeit a praccy match) they normally go ok and play with a bit of pizazz at marvel (apart from the late season losses to stkilda/adelaide there last year but by then they would of lost anywhere with the way their season snowballed late) they are generally good there.. call my crazy but I think they are a bet at 2.20-2.30ish haha ... dont particulary like the ins of lumbering Ratogelua and Soldo on a fast deck either yes they replace Lucocious and Jones who are more keys but its still 2 more lumbering guys than the 2 who went out

Even more confident in gold coast at the moment our linebreaker and guy who can actually kick Windsor not coming back for dees who is much needed given how the game is going with pace and the dees lack of spark going forward.. May doesn't sound too hopeful either... can't see us doing anything until Windor, Mcvee and Pickett are back

 

[demon_fanatic]

The heavy rain is now only forecast for morning and arvo in Brisbane on Saturday.. it's a lot but 15-70mm... also 5-20mm and 9-35 on thursday/friday too but if this raind does clear early mid arvo Saturday... how well can the gabba drain does anyone know?? could be looking at a situation where the over comes into play tbh if it drops any further from the 153.5 it is now.. I just wouldn't be tipping into the unders anymore as that rain could well be gone well before the match and both teams can score quick and play direct footy

 

[demon_fanatic]

Thomas Edwards $26/$51 3/4 tab. 3 on debut last week, can’t see him listed for 2

$41 for first goal

might be sub but.. i feel the new guy Ul Hawi will be in the starting 22,, money back if sub for goalkickers is it??

 

[gillon]

Perkins and Tsatas are out for Essendon. They had 49% and 53% CBA last weekend. That’s a lot more opportunity to go around and Essendon havent brought in any midfielders.

Hobbs 20, 25 and 30 @ SB

$2.10, $5.60 and $18

Can get 19, 24 and 29 and TAB for slightly less

 

[Reddd]

might be sub but.. i feel the new guy Ul Hawi will be in the starting 22,, money back if sub for goalkickers is it??

Yeah money back if sub. Menzie was sub last week so hopefully he’s sub again tonight

 

[the_big_sav]

Caldwell 20
Martin 20
McGrath 20
Farrell 15
Burgoyne 15
Roberts 15
Book 15
Georgiades goal
Rioli goal
Powell pepper goal
Kako goal
Horne Francis goal
Gresham goal

@ 14

Sportsbet free swing

 

[B_Rice]

Rozee has kicked 3 goals last 2 games against dons.
5.60 for 2+ sb
$18 for 3+ sb

Any thoughts?

 

[HTPunter]

Soldo 2 Draper 2 $12.15 PB

 

[the_big_sav]

Draper ats
Rioli ats
Horne Francis ats
Vandermeer ats
Williams ats
West ats
Long ats
Chandler ats
Higgins 2
Wood ats
Moore ats
Greene ats
Rankine ats
Rachele ats
Curtis ats

Power up @ 71.53

 

[sneak]

6 leg multi for tonight

Draper ags
Hobbs 15+
Mead 15+
Joe Richards 15+
McGrath over 21.5
Ess +19.5
2u @7.86

 

[Checkered]

Am I off my head or is this the easiest $10 odds you'll ever find? $100 on it already, thinking more…

 

[GROTTO]

2,3,4


Selim

 

[demon_fanatic]

Burgoyne 20 touches, evans 15, farrell 25, rioli AGS 4.50 at b365 thatll do me, same disposal guys but Martin instead of rioli at 6.00 odds too

 

[Rank]

Powel-pepper 2
Rozee 1
H Jones 1
McGrath 20 d @10.50 PB bet return if one fail

 

[NYRB]

3 Leg Pick Em for the Props off Dabble

Drew Over 88.5 SuperCoach Points
Rozee Under 109.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Caldwell Over 5 Tackles

Odds: 6.50 (1u)

Seeing odds on for Caldwell 6+ Tackles at TAB. Happy to take the push if he gets to 5.

Sportsbet Free Hit
Sam Draper AGS in 1st Qtr
Jase Burgoyne AGS
Total Match Points 171-180 pts
Odds: $38.50

Hoping for a cash Out opportunity if it gets to roughly 3.5x the initial stake

Single Straight Up bet

Jase Burgoyne 2+ Goals @ $13 (0.50u), 3+ Goals at $51 (0.25u)

Had 10 scoring involvements up until 3/4 time and watching the game Port had quite a few shots from the 40-55 metre range.

A little speculative play on Will Drew to win this AFL Fantasy Group at 11s (0.5u) . He topped score for Port last time they played at the Marvel and I cant take Rozee at under evens to win an 8 horse race event:

 

[NYRB]

Half time in-play betting

Essendon v Port Adelaide

3u Essendon to win Head to Head at 2.35 (PointsBet)


Bombers down 3 points. I think they overrun Port in the 2nd half here with SPP injured. Game has been a bit of a dogs breakfast to watch to be fair.

 

[the_big_sav]

Broke my own rule, never bet on rioli away from Adelaide oval

 

[NYRB]

3 Leg Pick Em for the Props off Dabble

Drew Over 88.5 SuperCoach Points
Rozee Under 109.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Caldwell Over 5 Tackles

Odds: 6.50 (1u)

Seeing odds on for Caldwell 6+ Tackles at TAB. Happy to take the push if he gets to 5.

Sportsbet Free Hit
Sam Draper AGS in 1st Qtr
Jase Burgoyne AGS
Total Match Points 171-180 pts
Odds: $38.50

Hoping for a cash Out opportunity if it gets to roughly 3.5x the initial stake

Single Straight Up bet

Jase Burgoyne 2+ Goals @ $13 (0.50u), 3+ Goals at $51 (0.25u)

Had 10 scoring involvements up until 3/4 time and watching the game Port had quite a few shots from the 40-55 metre range.

A little speculative play on Will Drew to win this AFL Fantasy Group at 11s (0.5u) . He topped score for Port last time they played at the Marvel and I cant take Rozee at under evens to win an 8 horse race event:

View attachment 2263054

Half time in-play betting

Essendon v Port Adelaide

3u Essendon to win Head to Head at 2.35 (PointsBet)


Bombers down 3 points. I think they overrun Port in the 2nd half here with SPP injured. Game has been a bit of a dogs breakfast to watch to be fair.

Just the +1.80 units up for tonight for Thursday Night Footy.

Hinkley doesn't play Will Drew for most of the final quarter, which ended up costing me my 3 legger on the Props.

Burgyone at 13s wins the AFL Fantasy Group for Port Adelaide.

 

[NYRB]

Matthew Kennedy Revenge Spot. Left the Blues with a chip on his shoulder.

3 Leg Pick Em for Bulldogs v Carlton
Cripps Over 5 Tackles
Kennedy Over 82.5 AFL Fantasy Pts
Sam Darcy Over 4.5 Marks
Odds: $6.50 (1u)

TAB have Cripps 6+ Tackles at odds on which represents poor value based on his past 2 and a bit seasons. Cripps got 2 Brownlow Votes competing against the Dogs (with Bont) last season. Did get 8 tackles last season in that game. Thought about the 99.5 Fantasy line or the Tackles line of 5, I believe if he is to clear that 99.5 Fantasy line , he most likely will have to clear the tackles line.

Cripps in his last 71 games: 0-4 Tackles =24 games, Exactly 5 Tackles= 16 games, Over 5.5 Tackles= 31 games
Cripps in his last 71 games in AFL Fantasy, Under 99.5 AFL Fantasy= 40 games, Over 99.5 AFL Fantasy= 31 games

I believe there is a little edge as a bit of insurance on the Over 5 Tackles here, given the choice of AFL Fantasy or Tackles. Not too keen on going higher ladder tackles on Crippa as he showed signs in the first couple of games this season - he has lost a yard of pace.

Kennedy to clear this line as he has a chip on his shoulder over summer after being used as the sub in their game last year.

In the marks, Darcy to clear the line even up against Carltons best in Weitering. Given TAB have Darcy 6+ Marks at Odds on, PB have him for 6+ at $1.59 which frankly is shocking value, again Im happy to take a Pick Em line here for his marks. There will be a game this season where I will look to oppose Sam Darcy marks but this isnt the game for me.


AFL Fantasy team groups happy to have 0.5u stakes on Blake Acres to win his group at 11s and Matthew Kennedy to win his group at 11s.

 

[taurus]

Brilliant anysis, NYRB! Only thing I wasn't sure about is Crippa tackles but checked that he is averaging 4.5 tackles this season thus fits into your analysis that he will be pumped up against a competitor like Tom.

Edit: where did you get that price?

 

[NYRB]

Brilliant anysis, NYRB! Only thing I wasn't sure about is Crippa tackles but checked that he is averaging 4.5 tackles this season thus fits into your analysis that he will be pumped up against a competitor like Tom.

Edit: where did you get that price?

I got it from Dabble. But the thing is Dabble will only allow one to put that in a multi with at least 2+ legs and no straight up bets.