Position 2025 Fantasy Forwards

[stallon]

If he went below 55 (for whatever reason) you could contemplate holding off until post Rd 3 bye, he wouldn't get away from you and would allow you to cash in on another rook who pops Rd0.

He is an absolute flourbag merchant so I could see a world where Scott loses patience with him if he's getting it 30 times and turning it over ever other kick - that's not really Geelong's modus operandi.

Edit: the latter comment was more about being a longterm hold for the season.

Danger has played nearly 200 games for the Cats btw

 

[happy_eagle]

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He's the most selected Fantasy player at nearly 70%, and now at Geelong he has the keys to the midfield we are told.

Opening Round he plays Brisbane at the Gabba.
He then has Freo Rnd 1 at the Alphabet Stadium, then StKilda at Marvel. Then the Rnd 3 Bye. Then Melb, Adel, Haw, Carl, Coll, GWS, Port, WBD

He is $598k, with a BE of 55. The Fantasy Coach predicts him to be a 75 against Brisbane. The Traders can't see a world where he is less than a 100avge.

Is there a world after Opening Round you don't take Bailey Smith? What is your line in the sand score?

I'd say realistic worst case he's 85
Realistic best case hes 100.

So average wise i'd put him low 90s. Priced at 50 still makes him a must have imo.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Danger has played nearly 200 games for the Cats btw

That's true, but he has a few more strings to his bow than Smith.

 

[Phar Ace]

I'd say realistic worst case he's 85
Realistic best case hes 100.

So average wise i'd put him low 90s. Priced at 50 still makes him a must have imo.

No arguments there, but my question was, is there a score in Opening Round that makes you not include him in your team?

 

[Phar Ace]

If he went below 55 (for whatever reason) you could contemplate holding off until post Rd 3 bye, he wouldn't get away from you and would allow you to cash in on another rook who pops Rd0.

He is an absolute flourbag merchant so I could see a world where Scott loses patience with him if he's getting it 30 times and turning it over ever other kick - that's not really Geelong's modus operandi.

Edit: the latter comment was more about being a longterm hold for the season.

Thank you - that is the point. What world exists where you might fade Bailey Smith after Round Zero? Hence why I put up all the subsequent teams he faces for a goodly period.

Other than StKilda, the run is not great for a while. That Opening Round game is going to be influential perhaps.

 

[Phar Ace]

3 is extreme but even if Smith drops a 75 in round 0 he's still increasing in price. You're just making money to pay more for a player you're going to get anyway.

But what is your line in the sand? Extreme or otherwise?

 

[stallon]

Problem if Bailey scores a 30 as a mid for example and you dont start him, you know youre more than likely going to have to get him in a couple of weeks later for almost the same price anyway, as we still expect 85+ from him the next week.
Thats a trade burnt for what? potentially saving a tiny amount of cash? instead of using that trade to jump on the rookie you missed who has just scored a 75 in their first game and is ready to shoot up in value?

He easily could drop an 90+ in R1 after that 40 in R0, then still go up in value anyway.

We are picking Bailey not with the main intention of making money, but as a keeper at a huge discount. I dont think theres anything he could do in R0 that could convince me hes not value.

Extreme example, but if Daicos was priced at 60 for some reason, and scored 50 in R0, would you still pick him?

 

[Phar Ace]

Even if Smith isnt in a big CBA% role I dont think it matters at he Cats, their wings and HFFs scored pretty well, better or as good as their actual mids.
Dempsey went at 73 in his first season of AFL while playing on a wing, Bailey should beat that if on a wing.
Smith went at 83 while doing 30% CBAs at the Dogs in 2023.

Cant really go wrong

Shouldn't. He's a very good player

But it's a hypothetical question that asks, what if that unpredictable occurs? Not a Kiddy Coleman type Rnd 1 injury - no one wants to see that happen to players. Concussions happen though, various awareness's happen, tags and run-with roles happen. In his career he's had a 47, 75 and 126 at the Gabba against the Lions.

His career, excluding his first season (to be fair), he's gone sub 70 - 23 times in 74 games and had 17 scores over 100.

 

[Phar Ace]

Problem if Bailey scores a 30 as a mid for example and you dont start him, you know youre more than likely going to have to get him in a couple of weeks later for almost the same price anyway, as we still expect 85+ from him the next week.
Thats a trade burnt for what? potentially saving a tiny amount of cash? instead of using that trade to jump on the rookie you missed who has just scored a 75 in their first game and is ready to shoot up in value?

He easily could drop an 90+ in R1 after that 40 in R0, then still go up in value anyway.

We are picking Bailey not with the main intention of making money, but as a keeper at a huge discount. I dont think theres anything he could do in R0 that could convince me hes not value.

Extreme example, but if Daicos was priced at 60 for some reason, and scored 50 in R0, would you still pick him?

Agree, the role will dictate a lot - his average without the 2022 year is pretty ordinary. I'm just glad we get to see him first. BE of 55, he's got to become 75avg at least. 2021 and 2023 he average around 85. 2022 was a great year at 105 - they what we all hope for. Daicos is not quite the model I'd be comparing him too yet. he's a very different cat - pun intended!

 

[Corkintheocean]

Thank you - that is the point. What world exists where you might fade Bailey Smith after Round Zero? Hence why I put up all the subsequent teams he faces for goodly period.

Other than StKilda, the run is not great for a while. That Opening Round game is going to be influential perhaps.

I think St Kilda were quite restrictive for mids in the second half of last year. Mostly because they were 2nd lowest for stoppages.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Problem if Bailey scores a 30 as a mid for example and you dont start him, you know youre more than likely going to have to get him in a couple of weeks later for almost the same price anyway, as we still expect 85+ from him the next week.
Thats a trade burnt for what? potentially saving a tiny amount of cash? instead of using that trade to jump on the rookie you missed who has just scored a 75 in their first game and is ready to shoot up in value?

He easily could drop an 90+ in R1 after that 40 in R0, then still go up in value anyway.

We are picking Bailey not with the main intention of making money, but as a keeper at a huge discount. I dont think theres anything he could do in R0 that could convince me hes not value.

Extreme example, but if Daicos was priced at 60 for some reason, and scored 50 in R0, would you still pick him?

You'd also get the additional cash to get a mid pricer to a premo, and an extra premo on field in Rd3 if it's a non-bye player. Provided you avoid injuries, you're often sideways trading prior to round 4 anyway as rooks aren't properly fattened. Whether or not that's worth the cost of a trade (it likely isn't) is another matter - worth a thought experiment though.

 

[Phar Ace]

I think St Kilda were quite restrictive for mids in the second half of last year. Mostly because they were 2nd lowest for stoppages.

Back 5 they controlled Essendon, Richmond, Geelong, but Lions and Blues got them with multiple tons. Maybe.

 

[happy_eagle]

No arguments there, but my question was, is there a score in Opening Round that makes you not include him in your team?

If he gets through the game, he is in my team I think. Even if thats a 50 from high TOG.

If he gets injured, I'd probably steer clear even if named the following week.

A spanner in the works would be if hes sub R0. In that case I'd probably get him post bye.

 

[stallon]

You'd also get the additional cash to get a mid pricer to a premo, and an extra premo on field in Rd3 if it's a non-bye player. Provided you avoid injuries, you're often sideways trading prior to round 4 anyway as rooks aren't properly fattened. Whether or not that's worth the cost of a trade (it likely isn't) is another matter - worth a thought experiment though.

If you downgrade Bailey to a forward rookie(very few good ones seem to be going around) and upgrade a mid-pricer(probably will have to be a mid) to a premium, you are losing out on 2 big value options for likely just a sub 50 scoring rookie and a guy who is close to max value.

If you sideways Bailey to some 400-600k fwd that pops up, youll still have the same structure but with less upside, and have a forced trade by round 4, if not earlier.

I dont think its worth upgrading Bailey to a better forward, the midfield guys around that 70-90 price point are just better value than the forwards at that level.

I just cant see it being worth it at this early stage to skip Bailey off a poor performance as long as hes got a role we can expect 75+ from him in.
Opportunity cost and the trade wasted early on is just too valuable

Definitely worth considering though as you say, if any of the 4 must-have forwards arent pickable in round 1 then we are going to have some re-shuffling to do

 

[Corkintheocean]

If you downgrade Bailey to a forward rookie(very few good ones seem to be going around) and upgrade a mid-pricer(probably will have to be a mid) to a premium, you are losing out on 2 big value options for likely just a sub 50 scoring rookie and a guy who is close to max value.

If you sideways Bailey to some 400-600k fwd that pops up, youll still have the same structure but with less upside, and have a forced trade by round 4, if not earlier.

I dont think its worth upgrading Bailey to a better forward, the midfield guys around that 70-90 price point are just better value than the forwards at that level.

I just cant see it being worth it at this early stage to skip Bailey off a poor performance as long as hes got a role we can expect 75+ from him in.
Opportunity cost and the trade wasted early on is just too valuable

Definitely worth considering though as you say, if any of the 4 must-have forwards arent pickable in round 1 then we are going to have some re-shuffling to do

I mean I'm not going to fade Smith because he presents way to much value...but the mid pricer you are giving up value on in the midfield may not perform either!




/Rumsfeld

 

[stallon]

I mean I'm not going to fade Smith because he presents way to much value...but the mid pricer you are giving up value on in the midfield may not perform either!




/Rumsfeld

Haha way so many variables to account for every outcome in a single comment.

Im just trying to picture myself on the thursday morning before round 1, what would I want to do with the forward line if something ruins my plans