WaynesWorld19
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I’m going to fade Sheezel ….. doubt he’ll take the game away from you ….. don’t see the value in the pick
Discussion 2025 Fantasy Pre-Season Planning Discussion
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Milo Cyrus
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Sheez is on the Tom Rockliff trajectory who went 134 ave in year 3. Actually he's ahead of him....Holy shit!
Milo Cyrus
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There’s a lot of million dollar players now, what is value now a days?
Sheez is a very different sort of player to Rocky, and Rockliff's first season was 2009 not 2012 lol
BloodBrother1
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- Sep 29, 2010
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I have decided to go with majority younger guys coming through this year i.e. move away from the bonts, petraccas, neales, olivers, lairds, gawns, grundys etc; I believe they will still be good players in their own right but just trying a different strategy. I have a couple of older heads in this team but only because of value hoping to pick up cash or they score well and become keepers - Looking at you Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel!!
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You could make that same argument though for the rucks.
Theres a couple value picks there as well below the two top rucks. Then if the top 2 need to pump out 120s from day 1, there’s a good chance they will dump some decent coin early as well.
Case in point Marshall this year, I started with him but he still dropped 100k in the first 6 weeks of the year. Good chance that happens again this year.
Think it’s all about balance. It’s tough to start the top rucks and 1 or 2 other uber premos as then you’ve diluted the cap to much. However you can start one or the other. Overall the outcome is similar. You’ll want to grab the other one at some point and there’s a good chance the one you start with, could loose a bit of coin early.
Still think you need to pay up for one though for a solid captain option from the start. Just a choice of which one while acknowledging there’s a good chance they may all loose some coin early.
With the rucks its different because of a couple of reasons. Generally no DPP options, you only have 2 spots on field, and rucks are generally quite reliable scorers/captaincy options.
Even with Marshall having a poor period early in the year I still think starting him was a great move.
Those reasons tend to favour a good ruck over a good mid, UNLESS there is a good cheaper option who you know will have 20+ points upside and the #1 ruck role. Value isnt as valuable in the ruckline imo
Generally you can get away with it because of the rucks or by picking one of the next level down premos, like a 105ish avg mid and using them as your captain for a bit if it means you get more value into your side.
It gets mentioned every year, but the top averaging mids generally dont back it up. I think Tom Mitchell is the most recent to not be poor the next year
Rozee went 106, but agreed Taranto can go higher just hard with how bad the tigers will be and he will get tagged/focused.
My thoughts also, thinking Whitfield will hold 110+
Nobody is gonna tag Taranto mate.
Taranto is in the same mould as Steele, and Miller who thrived being the main man in a shit side
Divide it by the magic number and work out the priced at figure.
100 average is just above $1m. (1.02m or so) - see Patty Cripps.
That 800-950 range is where the value is if you think they can be a top player in their line.
Don't see why they wouldn't put any attention into him when there's noone else xD. But im still deciding on him, Green or Rozee as my M1.
The pricing system is actually nearly perfect this year, in terms of thinking in player averages.
Player priced at 500k, do i think they score more than 50 points? Super easy to convert.
Player priced at 500k, do i think they score more than 50 points? Super easy to convert.
Against Richmond youre not going to be thinking about stopping them, you're going to be thinking about how you fill your own boots.
It's like when you verse the bunch of skinny 18 year old kids in social basketball who like to **** around and shoot threes. I'm out there to drop 40, not worry if their best player gets a few threes off. We're winning by 50 regardless.
Milo Cyrus
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We don't let facts get in the way of a good story!
tigs2010
Pick 1...
I'd say so. He's not great though but I've currently got him in.
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Typically what I do is build a list of initial players I am interested in.
Then put what I think they can average vs what they are priced at and sort by who is the most value (diff), and that is what I base my team on.
Good system, but unfortunately my predictions are always way off.
lol itll make 0 difference whether Taranto has 50 touches per game or 5. Clubs just wont care.
Same thing as Miller and Steele of a few years ago, or Tom Mitchell just before that.
They dont do enough damage with it and its not like teams will be afraid of losing.
Teams generally only tag if they think they cant win a normal head to head battle, I dont think anyone is anywhere close to being afraid of that vs Richmond in 2025
I do this too, or have done this.
On reflection I think it makes your assessment too narrow focussed.
It sounds counterintuitive, but i'm starting to think that looking less at the numbers is better. I listen to so many hours of podcasts in the pre-season, have discussions on here, watch pre-season games and look at training reports. It's impossible to synthesize that information down in to a scoring projection, and doing so may confuse or complicate the decision process. I'm thinking of relying more on my subconscious analysis of players - i.e gut feel, because our brains are a lot better at juggling all of that in the back of our mind rather than trying to set it down.
I'll still need to do some sort of projections - as its necessary for draft, but i try and stay away from being too formulaic for classic sides.
Planning no Macrae.
First side selected = great success! (No Macrae)
Peatling definitely on watch at his price / new club.
Flanders, no way with that new haircut.
Selected Welsh (utility) as I was sure T.Walker retired.
First side selected = great success! (No Macrae)
Peatling definitely on watch at his price / new club.
Flanders, no way with that new haircut.
Selected Welsh (utility) as I was sure T.Walker retired.
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There's a lot of value out there and a shitload of rookies that could debut early. Just going through the mids and there's a bit of risk associated with some of the fallen/underpriced premiums (obviously) but geez, it's hard to go past Oliver (has to have a good preseason) Doc, Petracca, Day etc. Peatling, depending on role, is very hard to pass on.
Then there's the mid rookies, all of Lalor, FOS, Draper, Jagga, Langford, Ashcroft, Smillie, Lombard and Lindsay could well debut early.
There's also a bit of value in defence with Holmes, Dale, Short, Rivers, Mills, Coleman, etc. and a few more rookies to round out the show, like Travaglia, Allan, Oliver and El-Hawli even Reid if he gets a crack. Tauru could be here or forward, just a wait and see on how he goes with the stress fracture in his back.
Forwards are going to be very similar, I'm baulking at paying up for JHF for F1, will probably go with Rankine although not sold there either. Macrae has to be starter along with Sniff, Poo and Daniel. Lynch is interesting at his price and looks to finally be getting a good preseason under his belt, not sure if I can go there though. Curtain and Hewett look to be good at their prices given that I don't like any rookie small forwards or KPF's for that matter. This line has very little variance and all (most) teams will be rolling like this.
I don't see much if any value in the rucks, so will be paying a premium on that that line, firstly for a captain(s) choice but also for the 'set and forget'. So two of Marshall, Gawn and Xerri will fill that possie.
$120k ITB
Then there's the mid rookies, all of Lalor, FOS, Draper, Jagga, Langford, Ashcroft, Smillie, Lombard and Lindsay could well debut early.
There's also a bit of value in defence with Holmes, Dale, Short, Rivers, Mills, Coleman, etc. and a few more rookies to round out the show, like Travaglia, Allan, Oliver and El-Hawli even Reid if he gets a crack. Tauru could be here or forward, just a wait and see on how he goes with the stress fracture in his back.
Forwards are going to be very similar, I'm baulking at paying up for JHF for F1, will probably go with Rankine although not sold there either. Macrae has to be starter along with Sniff, Poo and Daniel. Lynch is interesting at his price and looks to finally be getting a good preseason under his belt, not sure if I can go there though. Curtain and Hewett look to be good at their prices given that I don't like any rookie small forwards or KPF's for that matter. This line has very little variance and all (most) teams will be rolling like this.
I don't see much if any value in the rucks, so will be paying a premium on that that line, firstly for a captain(s) choice but also for the 'set and forget'. So two of Marshall, Gawn and Xerri will fill that possie.
$120k ITB
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Surprised no ones talking about Farrell, Evans or DBJ to fill the void/kicks ins from Houston leaving, surely a boost?
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It depends on what you think they can avg ect
Heeney was PA 80 and went 105 (well above that pre bye), but 100 was more than enough for a forward position
Also his bye was round 5(no one is that late this year) he had 5 price rises and 4 rounds of scoring pre bye
A predicted 100,100,100,100, 55 = 455
Vs an 80 holding form without bye 80 x 5 = 400
Then after the bye you have Heeney going at 100 vs some fwd at 80 which requires a fairly urgent trade (Before you even take into account $$ gain benefits to Heeney)
Be careful, treat each case individually imo
Thelethal97
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Farrell definitely the one that comes to mind but it's hard to see that much upside as he's not exactly cheap
Prefer Short as an example
