Discussion 2025 Fantasy Pre-Season Planning Discussion

[JDWCE]

All you guys picking Doedee but Brisbane faithful dont think he makes the team. The latest team I found posted on their board… *also of note, no Levi due to interrupted preseason

Andrews, Payne, Lester
Zorko, Willmott, Starc

Bailey, Neale, Berry
Fort, Dunkley, W.Ash

Rayner, Kai, Charlie
Day, Hipwood, Morris

Mccluggage, Fletcher, Ah Chee, Answerth
Sub: Reville or Levi - big question mark on Levi.

Next in line - Linc, McKenna
Not available/not fit - Oscar, Smith, Kiddy, Doedee

 

[bettingonbetts]

Toying with going down to 1 mid rookie on field. I just cant see how the 5/6/7th best mid rookies allow your team to be any better value than having an extra fwd/def cheapie.

Mills + Jagga Smith vs Peatling + Doedee, which is better value? Id pick the 2nd one comfortably.
Rankine + Draper vs Cerra + J.Berry? Id pick the 2nd again, Berry = Draper for value imo and Cerra vs Rankine is pretty clear I think.


I think people are overestimating the mid rookies a bit:

-People think Levi Ashcroft will be be another Will, but Levi is a good chance to not even have a midfield role in 2025 with the Lions depth. Supposedly Levi has had an interrupted pre-season? could be sub early on. What does Levi score at hff/forward pocket?
-Jagga Smith is going to be the 5th mid at the Blues at best, could easily be the 6th. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Hewitt, maybe Lord or something is in there too.
-Draper probably wont play much mid for the crows in 2025 outside injuries. Dawson, Crouch, peatling, rankine, Soligo
-FOS on a wing, will he score well there? idk but its not the Sheezel role. FOS has never been an accumulator.
-Langford is the 5th mid at best, probably plays forward. Oliver, trac, Viney, Rivers, Sparrow, Pickett
-Lindsay might score ok as an outside player, wherever that is wing/hb, but 50-60 is probably the upper limit(similar to Windsor), unless he does play a half back spot freed up by Rivers?
-Smillie should have a midfield role but hes still playing in a VERY poor side. Harley Reid I see as Smillies best case scoring to emulate. 19 touches, 2 marks, 4 tackles, and 0.5 goals would be a great result for Smillie in a slow and not very dynamic Tigers midfield. Unlikely to score that well though I think.

After that it drops off for the mid rookies, probably will be some names pop up closer to the season as always.

So is the midfield crop that good for fantasy? I dont think so. I think its just ok.
Consensus from the draft was that it was very even, but the top end was not that strong. Theres no Sheezel/Mckercher/Daicos types in the 2024 draft, at least going by their junior footy. Theyre mostly inside mids who need a bit of time to get up and running.

Not my actual team, but an example of how it might look:
Obviously skipped Draper, Langford and J.Smith, but kako/Berry and Doedee come in to replace them, as well as "better" mid pricers.
View attachment 2209972


Any thoughts?

All about this team, I love it. Good insight. Love to see the projection of this team!

 

[bettingonbetts]

All you guys picking Doedee but Brisbane faithful dont think he makes the team. The latest team I found posted on their board… *also of note, no Levi due to interrupted preseason

Andrews, Payne, Lester
Zorko, Willmott, Starc

Bailey, Neale, Berry
Fort, Dunkley, W.Ash

Rayner, Kai, Charlie
Day, Hipwood, Morris

Mccluggage, Fletcher, Ah Chee, Answerth
Sub: Reville or Levi - big question mark on Levi.

Next in line - Linc, McKenna
Not available/not fit - Oscar, Smith, Kiddy, Doedee

Under not available/not fit? Why?

 

[JDWCE]

Under not available/not fit? Why?

You’ll have to ask Brisbane track watchers

Didn’t he do his second ACL in March/April last year? My understanding is it was straight after his other one too. You’d imagine he’s coming from a long way back if that’s the case

 

[bettingonbetts]

You’ll have to ask Brisbane track watchers

Didn’t he do his second ACL in March/April last year? My understanding is it was straight after his other one too. You’d imagine he’s coming from a long way back if that’s the case

Yeah I remember him doing another ACL but I read that he would be back in time for pre season. I’ll have a look into it.
Thanks anyway for posting that!

 

[Thelethal97]

Following on from others, the one rook mid line could be a winner. I've got two currently, but there's just so much value in the midfield that you could easily start 7 under priced/mid pricers in the midfield

I think it comes down a lot to the def and what cheaper options come from it

Also, so many of the rooks have had interrupted pre-seasons, the only one who hasn't been coming off injury or training with rehab is Jagga. Xavier (PCL), Levi (shoulder surgery), Lalor (hamstring), Draper (niggles) all had times with rehab/being restricted. FOS on the wing I don't love, and Smilie is the only one who I see getting a good go at it

Would not shock me if all of Levi, Draper, Xavier etc start as a sub OR/R1 which might mean we'll need to be on our toes...

 

[stallon]

All about this team, I love it. Good insight. Love to see the projection of this team!

Thanks, just throwing something a bit different out there, feels the community in general has gotten stuck in the group-think of needing to have all these mid rookies

 

[stallon]

Following on from others, the one rook mid line could be a winner. I've got two currently, but there's just so much value in the midfield that you could easily start 7 under priced/mid pricers in the midfield

I think it comes down a lot to the def and what cheaper options come from it

Also, so many of the rooks have had interrupted pre-seasons, the only one who hasn't been coming off injury or training with rehab is Jagga. Xavier (PCL), Levi (shoulder surgery), Lalor (hamstring), Draper (niggles) all had times with rehab/being restricted. FOS on the wing I don't love, and Smilie is the only one who I see getting a good go at it

Would not shock me if all of Levi, Draper, Xavier etc start as a sub OR/R1 which might mean we'll need to be on our toes...

Yeah definitely depends on how we feel about the def/fwd rookies come round 1, but those mid rookies are by no means must-haves imo

 

[wahooo]

Toying with going down to 1 mid rookie on field. I just cant see how the 5/6/7th best mid rookies allow your team to be any better value than having an extra fwd/def cheapie.

Mills + Jagga Smith vs Peatling + Doedee, which is better value? Id pick the 2nd one comfortably.
Rankine + Draper vs Cerra + J.Berry? Id pick the 2nd again, Berry = Draper for value imo and Cerra vs Rankine is pretty clear I think.


I think people are overestimating the mid rookies a bit:

-People think Levi Ashcroft will be be another Will, but Levi is a good chance to not even have a midfield role in 2025 with the Lions depth. Supposedly Levi has had an interrupted pre-season? could be sub early on. What does Levi score at hff/forward pocket?
-Jagga Smith is going to be the 5th mid at the Blues at best, could easily be the 6th. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Hewitt, maybe Lord or something is in there too.
-Draper probably wont play much mid for the crows in 2025 outside injuries. Dawson, Crouch, peatling, rankine, Soligo
-FOS on a wing, will he score well there? idk but its not the Sheezel role. FOS has never been an accumulator.
-Langford is the 5th mid at best, probably plays forward. Oliver, trac, Viney, Rivers, Sparrow, Pickett
-Lindsay might score ok as an outside player, wherever that is wing/hb, but 50-60 is probably the upper limit(similar to Windsor), unless he does play a half back spot freed up by Rivers?
-Smillie should have a midfield role but hes still playing in a VERY poor side. Harley Reid I see as Smillies best case scoring to emulate. 19 touches, 2 marks, 4 tackles, and 0.5 goals would be a great result for Smillie in a slow and not very dynamic Tigers midfield. Unlikely to score that well though I think.

After that it drops off for the mid rookies, probably will be some names pop up closer to the season as always.

So is the midfield crop that good for fantasy? I dont think so. I think its just ok.
Consensus from the draft was that it was very even, but the top end was not that strong. Theres no Sheezel/Mckercher/Daicos types in the 2024 draft, at least going by their junior footy. Theyre mostly inside mids who need a bit of time to get up and running.

Not my actual team, but an example of how it might look:
Obviously skipped Draper, Langford and J.Smith, but kako/Berry and Doedee come in to replace them, as well as "better" mid pricers.
View attachment 2209972


Any thoughts?

I like that one rook structure in the mids.

Although I don't feel as comfortable running so many of the $700k guys and given I don't have one of Xerri or Marshall in the rucks, I've paid up for an extra captaincy option in the mids when looking at this sort of structure.

I quite like the exact midfield you have there but swapping Doch for Dawson (was Walsh prior to the hammy news) and Day for NOD.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

I’m not sure Doedee will even be in their 22 at the moment.

Don’t think can take that risk without having a backup plan ready to go and spare cash.

 

[ShadowCat]

Curious what Port guys think of Sinn as a D5/D6? Will he be Best 22/get time in the backline. Or is that more of a Farrell/Williams/L. Evans/Burgoyne mix?

 

[Lukesera]

Toying with going down to 1 mid rookie on field. I just cant see how the 5/6/7th best mid rookies allow your team to be any better value than having an extra fwd/def cheapie.

I've also restructured and played around with this.

I've gone heavy in the forwards, with Caleb Daniel at D6.

400-450K guy at M6 (NOD/Erasmus/Maric/E.Allan), Jagga M7 and then I've swung E.Hewett into M8.

 

[Barrybran]

I've also restructured and played around with this.

I've gone heavy in the forwards, with Caleb Daniel at D6.

400-450K guy at M6 (NOD/Erasmus/Maric/E.Allan), Jagga M7 and then I've swung E.Hewett into M8.

Do you have any defenders?

 

[Lukesera]

Do you have any defenders?

Mills D4, Trav, El-Hawli.

Likely going to need a restructure if no rookie defenders emerge, but it's fun to play around with.

Easy enough to go M6 down to one of the rookies and Trav up to a Sinn type.

 

[Phar Ace]

Toying with going down to 1 mid rookie on field. I just cant see how the 5/6/7th best mid rookies allow your team to be any better value than having an extra fwd/def cheapie.

Mills + Jagga Smith vs Peatling + Doedee, which is better value? Id pick the 2nd one comfortably.
Rankine + Draper vs Cerra + J.Berry? Id pick the 2nd again, Berry = Draper for value imo and Cerra vs Rankine is pretty clear I think.


I think people are overestimating the mid rookies a bit:

-People think Levi Ashcroft will be be another Will, but Levi is a good chance to not even have a midfield role in 2025 with the Lions depth. Supposedly Levi has had an interrupted pre-season? could be sub early on. What does Levi score at hff/forward pocket?
-Jagga Smith is going to be the 5th mid at the Blues at best, could easily be the 6th. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Hewitt, maybe Lord or something is in there too.
-Draper probably wont play much mid for the crows in 2025 outside injuries. Dawson, Crouch, peatling, rankine, Soligo
-FOS on a wing, will he score well there? idk but its not the Sheezel role. FOS has never been an accumulator.
-Langford is the 5th mid at best, probably plays forward. Oliver, trac, Viney, Rivers, Sparrow, Pickett
-Lindsay might score ok as an outside player, wherever that is wing/hb, but 50-60 is probably the upper limit(similar to Windsor), unless he does play a half back spot freed up by Rivers?
-Smillie should have a midfield role but hes still playing in a VERY poor side. Harley Reid I see as Smillies best case scoring to emulate. 19 touches, 2 marks, 4 tackles, and 0.5 goals would be a great result for Smillie in a slow and not very dynamic Tigers midfield. Unlikely to score that well though I think.

After that it drops off for the mid rookies, probably will be some names pop up closer to the season as always.

So is the midfield crop that good for fantasy? I dont think so. I think its just ok.
Consensus from the draft was that it was very even, but the top end was not that strong. Theres no Sheezel/Mckercher/Daicos types in the 2024 draft, at least going by their junior footy. Theyre mostly inside mids who need a bit of time to get up and running.

Not my actual team, but an example of how it might look:
Obviously skipped Draper, Langford and J.Smith, but kako/Berry and Doedee come in to replace them, as well as "better" mid pricers.
View attachment 2209972


Any thoughts?

Kudos to you - well written, well thought out.

However, whether we are overestimating, underestimating and are just plain blind of the mid rookies, these players will largely dictate to us their selection or otherwise. With around 40 days to Opening Round, anything remains possible still. Whomever plays Opening Round, and, well and truly exceeds their BE, is likely selected by the majority.

It won't make it the right selection, however, it will demand selection as it will suddenly be something known, and to be weighed up against the known unknowns (kudos Rumsfeld).

L.Ashcroft probably won't play OR. He's still in my side and that won't change materially until Thursday March 6th, or if not much pops, probably Thursday March 13th, or, he is ruled out early.

Good luck everyone with their known unknowns, until after Round 1 when you say, 'Oh, I should have known!' and some says back to you:

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Curious what Port guys think of Sinn as a D5/D6? Will he be Best 22/get time in the backline. Or is that more of a Farrell/Williams/L. Evans/Burgoyne mix?

Really hope Sinn comes on as I think he’s getting close to his last chance. Constant soft tissue injuries over the past 3-4 years has completely stifled him.

Hope he comes on and starts to show something but I have my doubts until he does.

If he’s fit, I think they’ll find a place for him. However I don’t think he will be pushing anything much above 60.

 

[Lukesera]

I’ve seen you post a bit on this board. What’re your thoughts on Farrell? I’m chopping and changing between him and Burton (I do think Burton presents more value) but not sure if he’s best 22.

Update on Farrell. More info in comments

 

[tigs2010]

Update on Farrell. More info in comments

Say Farrell misses round 1, I wonder who gets the ass out of Burton & Sinn when he comes back.

 

[bettingonbetts]

Update on Farrell. More info in comments

Oh dear….
Burton stocks ?

 

[Phar Ace]

Say Farrell misses round 1, I wonder who gets the ass out of Burton & Sinn when he comes back.

Probs Sinn, but Burton is a twist away from another injury (Sorry Ryan)

 

[stallon]

I like that one rook structure in the mids.

Although I don't feel as comfortable running so many of the $700k guys and given I don't have one of Xerri or Marshall in the rucks, I've paid up for an extra captaincy option in the mids when looking at this sort of structure.

I quite like the exact midfield you have there but swapping Doch for Dawson (was Walsh prior to the hammy news) and Day for NOD.

Yeah it was just an example with a bunch of popular players showing how someone might do it. Figured with Brayshaw and Xerri thats the captaincy options ticked off, but ye up to each person I guess

 

[Iceman!]

Can we keep this on the downlow. Would love more people to stay locked into the Day trap. This could scare people off.

He is still the Hawks best and most dynamic mid and not a reliable set shot. He will be playing the vast majority on ball, resting forward a little bit wouldn't impact his scoring much.

 

[Coasters7]

I was listening to one of the popdcasts and one of the hosts mentioned building your team without bye players and having them force your hand to select them, so that's what I have done (except for Bailey Smith). The biggest issue I am having at the moment is D5 because I either put a rookie there and take advantage of the value on the other lines or pay up and sacrifice value elsewhere.

Yeah D5 is the one for me too. Had Coleman there despite the bye as I wanted the depth but he’s the only one around that price range that I’d have wanted.

On the other hand though, I did a similar thing with ZWilliams last year and that panned out terribly so maybe I will just cut costs and go another rookie down there.

 

[Barrybran]

Yeah D5 is the one for me too. Had Coleman there despite the bye as I wanted the depth but he’s the only one around that price range that I’d have wanted.

On the other hand though, I did a similar thing with ZWilliams last year and that panned out terribly so maybe I will just cut costs and go another rookie down there.

Great call re ZWill. I was on that train as well hence why I've had teams with five defenders over $800k this preseason.

 

[bettingonbetts]

Yeah D5 is the one for me too. Had Coleman there despite the bye as I wanted the depth but he’s the only one around that price range that I’d have wanted.

On the other hand though, I did a similar thing with ZWilliams last year and that panned out terribly so maybe I will just cut costs and go another rookie down there.

I would love to have two rookies in the defender line however I don’t think there is any real security in any of the rookies.
Is El-Hawli a definite starter? B.Allen is most likely to get games but will he even create much cash gen with his low scoring? Traviglia even best 22??? Or is he a sub risk?

I have more confidence playing two rookies in the forward line, seems like there is more security there. Players like Stone, Hewitt, Curtin (still a sub risk), Davidson (WB apparently will play wing). Also with a bit of insecurity of knowing who will be F1 will give you some time to sit back and watch