- Aug 18, 2018
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Maybe the reason we don't have enough information though is because the game has passed his body by
2025 Pre-Season chat
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I didn't realise that.
Still feel as though he was running on fumes. He's really lost a yard in general pace and reactions.
Duncan never got caught with the ball or chose to go into preservation mode.
Mattttty
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- Jun 25, 2022
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Yeah, that's right. Maybe. And this season is when we'll find out.
I hope everyone down at Geelong had a Merry Christmas and a cool Boxing Day, let's hope 2025 sees a renewed and successful quest for the flag. They will be competitive again and should finish top 4-6. Onward and upward!
- May 20, 2014
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Effective disposal / disposal efficiency are the worst stats. All players that play off half back and most of their possessions are switching play to an open player plus Holmes who bombs it long and they count any kick over 40m as effective.
- Jun 11, 2013
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True it's not great measure of excellence, but it is actually a decent measure of whether he's going okay. It means he was getting into position for that switch, being trusted by his team mates to make the switch, and effectively hitting it.
A better measure of a player like Duncan might be his rebound 50s if anyone has access to that.
Late track watcher feedback for December…
Don’t really learn a lot pre Christmas given it is largely skills and fitness driven. The “match sims” are limited pressure so again not a real indication of who is “flying” or not. Expectations are that things are going to ramp up very quickly in Jan given first practice game is not far away…
Only interesting things I learnt…
Smith is “different” personality (but not enough to be distracting) but “can play”. Will add a lot in terms of energy and skills. Definitely midfield but that will now include wing (ie. will more specifically rotate a midfielder on the “non-Dempsey” wing this year).
Humphries and Dempsey continue to excite the coaches in terms of potential improvement in 2025
SDK and Mitch Knevitte have come back “huge” and strong. Mitch definitely seen as an inside midfielder so will need to push his way into midfield rotation. Coaches “really like him” so will give him every shot.
A midfield squeeze is on with Danger, Bruhn, Bowes, Atkins, Smith, Holmes, Knevitt, Clarke and then Guthrie, Blitz, MOC - so a number of players will miss out on best 23 if all available. Having said that coaches are not at all focussed in this “problem”
Mullin is “very exciting”. “Will play every game”. Similar role in terms of backline but tagging roles
Genuine held view that Martin will play and will be effective. (I have no idea how they fit him in!)
A few players in “recovery/rehab”. All of them have been doing 3/4 sessions a week at the club even during breaks. SDK knee is really good - now needs to catch up on fitness level. Confident that should be fit enough by round 1. Toby a little bit ahead of SDK in terms of rehab but of course people are not as confident in his body vs SDK. Bruhn has been dealing with lots of niggles - hopefully it doesn’t set him back in terms of pre season fitness. Mannagh has a foot issue which is causing some worry - no idea what level of concern (could be nothing). MOC still in Ireland rehab his wrist. Will be back for start of Jan. I think that is all (or at least all I remember)
Anyway, it seems like we should be hopeful in terms of team being ready to have another crack in 2025
Don’t really learn a lot pre Christmas given it is largely skills and fitness driven. The “match sims” are limited pressure so again not a real indication of who is “flying” or not. Expectations are that things are going to ramp up very quickly in Jan given first practice game is not far away…
Only interesting things I learnt…
Smith is “different” personality (but not enough to be distracting) but “can play”. Will add a lot in terms of energy and skills. Definitely midfield but that will now include wing (ie. will more specifically rotate a midfielder on the “non-Dempsey” wing this year).
Humphries and Dempsey continue to excite the coaches in terms of potential improvement in 2025
SDK and Mitch Knevitte have come back “huge” and strong. Mitch definitely seen as an inside midfielder so will need to push his way into midfield rotation. Coaches “really like him” so will give him every shot.
A midfield squeeze is on with Danger, Bruhn, Bowes, Atkins, Smith, Holmes, Knevitt, Clarke and then Guthrie, Blitz, MOC - so a number of players will miss out on best 23 if all available. Having said that coaches are not at all focussed in this “problem”
Mullin is “very exciting”. “Will play every game”. Similar role in terms of backline but tagging roles
Genuine held view that Martin will play and will be effective. (I have no idea how they fit him in!)
A few players in “recovery/rehab”. All of them have been doing 3/4 sessions a week at the club even during breaks. SDK knee is really good - now needs to catch up on fitness level. Confident that should be fit enough by round 1. Toby a little bit ahead of SDK in terms of rehab but of course people are not as confident in his body vs SDK. Bruhn has been dealing with lots of niggles - hopefully it doesn’t set him back in terms of pre season fitness. Mannagh has a foot issue which is causing some worry - no idea what level of concern (could be nothing). MOC still in Ireland rehab his wrist. Will be back for start of Jan. I think that is all (or at least all I remember)
Anyway, it seems like we should be hopeful in terms of team being ready to have another crack in 2025
- Apr 6, 2017
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You know that if you kick it 40m to a one on one thats its an effective disposal right?
It doesnt matter if the other team gets the ball.
Hamingja said:
Effective disposal / disposal efficiency are the worst stats. All players that play off half back and most of their possessions are switching play to an open player plus Holmes who bombs it long and they count any kick over 40m as effective.
By far the most important kick in football excluding the 'kick for goal' is the 'inside 50 kick', it's priceless making Gryan Miers such an important player for the Cats.
Effective disposal / disposal efficiency are the worst stats. All players that play off half back and most of their possessions are switching play to an open player plus Holmes who bombs it long and they count any kick over 40m as effective.
By far the most important kick in football excluding the 'kick for goal' is the 'inside 50 kick', it's priceless making Gryan Miers such an important player for the Cats.
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
Similar to Dangerfield in his early days at the club perhaps?
Not a bad guy or anything malicious like that, but confident in his abilities nonetheless, which maybe takes teammates some time to adjust to while he's still considered the 'new guy' at the club?
I agree that at times his reactions were poor and agility especially on defensive transition was a weakness.
But it bares reminding that despite not being as immaculate at accumulating effective disposals as in his prime, he remains in our top few for that metric. Which is basically the whole reason he is still in the team despite the decline in his athletic profile. It's not uncommon for sides to have one or two veterans specifically for this role, while others around them add the pace/agility etc.
Yeah because that's definitely what Duncan did all year, bomb it blindly to a contest. You might be thinking of Tuohy. Duncan hit targets more often that not, despite people jumping on the odd errors he'd make (as in his prime he didn't make them...any 30+ year old player does, even Pendles).
More than happy to include other ways to look at it.
Tuohy had the same role. So disregarding that Duncan had more disposals and effective disposals, there are other things to look at.
Duncan had a significantly lower turnover per disposal rate and clanger per disposal rate.
Around 30% more score involvements.
Twice as many goal assists, suggesting his radar kicking inside 50 was better.
The numbers on all of these were fine for a veteran halfback distributor. There are other things he didn't do well. But it's off base to suggest ball accumulation and use was a weakness.
- Aug 18, 2018
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Victim of setting high standards early in his career
A lot of Duncan's effective disposals were chip around the backline easy touches
He's been a great player but if we are to improve next year he's been replaced by someone coming on
He's been a great player but if we are to improve next year he's been replaced by someone coming on
Something else that can easily be analysed, the end result of which refutes your statement.
Duncan's metres gained per disposal did not decline compared to 2022-2023 in the same role, in fact they slightly increased. Score involvements per disposal stayed around the same, meaning his damage per disposal was roughly similar - in fact, Humphries was almost identical for this. Yes Lawson's a kid but he was rightly praised, so if Duncan disposal profile was similar he can't have been bad. Duncan actually had more goal assists per disposal in 2024 than he did in 2023.
The only metric he was suffered in as far as his disposals, were his shots at goal. His kicking inside 50 was good but he bit off more than he could chew for those long range shots at goal.
- Apr 6, 2017
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The only thing you're doing here is to push people to point out his deficiencies.
Leave it alone.
We all respect what he's done.
Is that the only thing I'm doing, or is that the narrative you're conjuring up simply because I've provided evidence that contradicts people's claims of Duncan's ball use dropping off a cliff or becoming poor/lacking impact? I've even pointed out the things that have been his deficiencies. It's up to you if you want to pretend that every single one of his strengths has become a weakness. But I'll gladly provide basic metrics that argue the opposite. I haven't seen you offer anything to support your view.
P.S I'd hope people here are above being pathetic enough to over criticise a player merely because someone provided a few basic statistical facts about their performance.
I'm fairly sure you've admitted to mowing your lawns or dusting your shelves during half of the Geelong matches every year anyway. So maybe lawn reports are more your area of expertise.
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small 4wards
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- Jul 29, 2021
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Man, honestly you need to calm it down, someone offering a contrary opinion to yours doesn't deserve snide remarks about "how pathetic" people can be or "lawn reports are more your area of expertise".
Both of you can be right. Duncan declined in some facets of his game while remaining strong with his disposal efficiency.
If you're genuinely wanting reasons as to why Duncan has declined, watch the Freo and Adelaide games this year. A lack of pace has resulted in holding the ball decisions against as well as a lack of speed when forced into chases or pressure acts. I think he's still a very good player but it's been obvious that father time is catching up
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Man, dude, mate, brother, comrade, boss, guy - how about just sticking to the topic at hand rather than a condescending rant about the particulars of conversational discourse. I'm more than happy to address the rest of your post in a civil way. I'm less polite when people simply say "give it a rest, you're only making us criticise Duncan more". I do think stuff like that is pretty pathetic. As are armchair experts overstating the decline of our veterans and acting as if any games awarded are a charity case. People lean into hyperbole, particularly when calling time on players careers. I see no reason to join the sheep in that narrative.
As for the bolded I actually agree and have covered each of these points. Duncan's weaknesses are mostly defensive with a lack of reaction time, agility and pace but that has occasionally affected his output in possession lately. Old players all get caught holding the ball more often, but many have value. What I've disputed is that we have seen large increases in his turnover rate, or that his disposals are much less effective or safer and therefore less damaging. Ball in hand he's not as strong as he was, but it is still a strength. People can state otherwise all they want, but they could try at least matching it with something that supports those arguments.
Mate, in the modern congested game if you can hit a one on one from that far out you are doing very well.
That said on the whole I agree that player efficiency is a flawed stat.
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The other poster has a point, you are getting personal.
Great info. Any thoughts on Edwards and Conway.
I appreciate the analysis, I do love diving into stats
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a better year this season than last especially when the team as a whole had an improved season
I still see his role as an area we can improve on from my observations watching our game each week
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a better year this season than last especially when the team as a whole had an improved season
I still see his role as an area we can improve on from my observations watching our game each week
Edwards I think has some huge upside. But doesn’t sound like it is a 2025 thing. (Although I didn’t specifically ask so I am reading between…). Massively athletic and could play multiple roles. Will be ultra cautious with body. Really need to see him play consistent vfl before even thinking about long term
Conway they remain very confident…but then when you probe it seems more hope/faith (consistent with time of year!) than any evidence base…in terms of body. He has done a power of work so fingers crossed
The other one was COS. Has put on size and they remain very confident he will develop into a serious player. Feels like we might get some glimpses in 25 but gearing up for medium term impact
