Cubs2Lions
Norm Smith Medallist
Now that Tasmania’s entry into the AFL is 99% completed (given the stadium deal is complete and presidents will
overwhelming vote yes) and will force the AFL competition into 19 teams by 2027/2028 (dependent on entry), it won’t be long til the AFL start the process on where the 20th team should be ideally located to avoid the dreaded bye in their competitions for too long, while also increasing weekly matches to 10 per round.
Personally, Canberra / ACT should have been favourites by a long mile to gain the 20th license in the AFL, given the close proximity from Sydney and Melbourne, current population of 467k (expected to grow of 700k+ by 2063) and having a bigger population then other non-AFL team representation and much more ideal weather compared to the other Northern states or territories.
However, given the fact that GWS signed a 10 year deal to play 3 home games per year over there (til 2032) and the fact that GWS relies on the deal for their essential survival almost given the poor numbers they have in “adopted” NSW, it seems highly unlikely that Canberra will get that license now and will have to wait til the 21st and 22nd slots become available (which might be a fair while IMO)
Therefore, I can see the AFL either going safe with a 3rd SA / WA license or expanding into the Northern states again in either QLD (rightly or wrongly) given the money being put in from the state and federal governments for the 2032 Olympics in South-East Queensland and the AFL trying to cash in from those developments or for them give a license in NT to help build the code furthermore in Darwin / Alice Springs while also improving the Aboriginal / Torrens Strait Islander player rates in AFL competitions in the future compared to the past and now.