20th AFL Team

[Rob]

Canberra and Perth are the only places I can see conceivably working as Team 20. The NT is a romantic option, but really a pipedream.

But I think Canberra still makes more sense (I realise I can't say that without bias).

To me, Fremantle is still so far behind West Coast, that they still need time to catch up (hopefully a few years of the current performances can help). Even this year, West Coast have 100k members and Freo have 53k.

Freo should be a huge club alongside West Coast, but I fear a third Perth team will hamstring Freo's growth and result in West Coast overshadowing two mediocre clubs, rather than Perth having two strong clubs.

lol wut? We get 40k every game

Go and have a look at the crowds thread, Collingwood are getting jizzed on because they got 45k yesterday. We'll probably better that next weekend unless the weather is garbage, and that's with the cheapest tickets being $39.

Compare any club to West Coast and they look like minnows.

 

[Canberra Pear]

lol wut? We get 40k every game

Go and have a look at the crowds thread, Collingwood are getting jizzed on because they got 45k yesterday. We'll probably better that next weekend unless the weather is garbage, and that's with the cheapest tickets being $39.

Compare any club to West Coast and they look like minnows.

Well, you've reached 40k for 3/8 of your home games, but point taken. You're doing well on and off the field.

Do you personally think there's room for a third team in the city?

I think there's room for Freo to grow and get 80-100k members, or there's room for a new team, but not for both.

My preference would be for two strong WA clubs.

 

[WestCoast05]

Well, you've reached 40k for 3/8 of your home games, but point taken. You're doing well on and off the field.

Do you personally think there's room for a third team in the city?

I think there's room for Freo to grow and get 80-100k members, or there's room for a new team, but not for both.

My preference would be for two strong WA clubs.

Easy - it needs to represent the Northern suburbs, which wont interfere with Freo much at all as they are a southern suburbs club.

West Coast will never struggle.
Fremantle has Greater Fremantle (the South West suburban corridor) and Mandurah/Rockingham on lock (and to a lesser extent other parts of South of the River.
So a Perth3 team repping the Northern suburbs based in either Stirling or Mirrabooka would be ideal.
You don't want to base them too far North like Joondalup as you will have the far Northern suburbs and areas like Joondalup as your potential supporter base anyway by purporting to represent the Northern suburbs, so might as well go somewhere closer to the city that still represent North of the River.
Perhaps an arrangement could be made where the WAFL ressies team could be Joondalup in the same way Fremantle has Peel (Mandurah) Thunder.


Idiots who suggest Mandurah, Bunbury or Joondalup etc are morons who have never had to organise or plan things in their life (same Idiots that actually think Darwin with a population smaller than Joondalup could support a team).
You want an identity that sweeps and covers a large population base - so North of the River is the smart money.
Will be covering far richer areas than Fremantle Dockers cover if (a big IF) it can pry supporters out of the West Coasts grip.
But a generation locked out of West Coast games will adopt it as their second (or even first) club and the North / South rivalry is always good for a bit of fun, it would be wise to tap into that. eg Northern Perth Sharks or North Perth Sharks (doesnt have to be sharks obviously just an example).

 

[WilloTree]

Easy - it needs to represent the Northern suburbs, which wont interfere with Freo much at all as they are a southern suburbs club.

West Coast will never struggle.
Fremantle has Greater Fremantle (the South West suburban corridor) and Mandurah/Rockingham on lock (and to a lesser extent other parts of South of the River.
So a Perth3 team repping the Northern suburbs based in either Stirling or Mirrabooka would be ideal.
You don't want to base them too far North like Joondalup as you will have the far Northern suburbs and areas like Joondalup as your potential supporter base anyway by purporting to represent the Northern suburbs.
Perhaps an arrangement could be made where the WAFL ressies team could be Joondalup in the same way Fremantle has Peel (Mandurah) Thunder.


Idiots who suggest Mandurah or Bunbury etc are morons who have never had to organise or plan things in their life (same Idiots that actually think Darwin with it's Mandurah like population size could support a team).
You want an identity that sweeps and covers a large population base - so North of the River is the smart money.
Will be covering far richer areas than Fremantle Dockers cover if (a big IF) it can pry supporters out of the West Coasts grip.
But a generation locked out of West Coast games will adopt it as their second (or even first) club and the North / South rivalry is always good for a bit of fun, it would be wise to tap into that. eg Northern Perth Sharks or North Perth Sharks (doesnt have to be sharks obviously just an example).

Came here to post pretty much exactly this. Thanks for saving me the time.

Additionally,
-the population of Perth by 2027 will be close to 3m (Canberra about 400,000)
-WA is Australia’s fastest-growing state, growing at more than twice the national growth rate, twice the rate of Victoria and almost three times that of NSW.

 

[WestCoast05]

Came here to post pretty much exactly this. Thanks for saving me the time.

Additionally,
-the population of Perth by 2027 will be close to 3m (Canberra about 400,000)
-WA is Australia’s fastest-growing state, growing at more than twice the national growth rate, twice the rate of Victoria and almost three times that of NSW.

View attachment 1443082

This is already old - the 2021 Census had to upscale WA's population to 2,750,000 (they found they were off by 68k).

On top of that Close to 100k ppl moved back to Perth since the border softening and opening of Feb/March this year (I don't know how many left at the same time but leaving was not the challenge during Covid, getting in was the challenge).
So it's reported 50k moved to Perth during the softening in Feb and then in the 5 March border opening 28k moved here in the first week alone. So it's reasonable we have had net increase of 100k+ considering it is now July.
The 3 million mark will be reached potentially within 3 years. So that is potentially 1 million ppl per club in WA.
This makes a lot more sense than Darwin with a population of 130k and NT with a population of 250k.

EDIT: on another note our regular growth rate (ie not the end of Covid border closeure growth rate) is no longer as high as it used to be (2.9%) but we have a larger population in real numbers and are still growing considerably. This is magnified by the fact we have a skills shortage and are putting the call out nationally and internationally for workers.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Easy - it needs to represent the Northern suburbs, which wont interfere with Freo much at all as they are a southern suburbs club.

West Coast will never struggle.
Fremantle has Greater Fremantle (the South West suburban corridor) and Mandurah/Rockingham on lock (and to a lesser extent other parts of South of the River.
So a Perth3 team repping the Northern suburbs based in either Stirling or Mirrabooka would be ideal.
You don't want to base them too far North like Joondalup as you will have the far Northern suburbs and areas like Joondalup as your potential supporter base anyway by purporting to represent the Northern suburbs, so might as well go somewhere closer to the city that still represent North of the River.
Perhaps an arrangement could be made where the WAFL ressies team could be Joondalup in the same way Fremantle has Peel (Mandurah) Thunder.


Idiots who suggest Mandurah, Bunbury or Joondalup etc are morons who have never had to organise or plan things in their life (same Idiots that actually think Darwin with a population smaller than Joondalup could support a team).
You want an identity that sweeps and covers a large population base - so North of the River is the smart money.
Will be covering far richer areas than Fremantle Dockers cover if (a big IF) it can pry supporters out of the West Coasts grip.
But a generation locked out of West Coast games will adopt it as their second (or even first) club and the North / South rivalry is always good for a bit of fun, it would be wise to tap into that. eg Northern Perth Sharks or North Perth Sharks (doesnt have to be sharks obviously just an example).

Interesting insight.

Is the North/South divide strong in Perth?

A northern team means Freo would be pretty safe.

Would you expect many people to get on board? You'd think they'd have to average 25-30k or so to be considered worth it.

This is already old - the 2021 Census had to upscale WA's population to 2,750,000 (they found they were off by 68k).

On top of that Close to 100k ppl moved back to Perth since the border softening and opening of Feb/March this year (I don't know how many left at the same time but leaving was not the challenge during Covid, getting in was the challenge).
So it's reported 50k moved to Perth during the softening in Feb and then in the 5 March border opening 28k moved here in the first week alone. So it's reasonable we have had net increase of 100k+ considering it is now July.
The 3 million mark will be reached potentially within 3 years. So that is potentially 1 million ppl per club in WA.
This makes a lot more sense than Darwin with a population of 130k and NT with a population of 250k.

EDIT: on another note our regular growth rate (ie not the end of Covid border closeure growth rate) is no longer as high as it used to be (2.9%) but we have a larger population in real numbers and are still growing considerably. This is magnified by the fact we have a skills shortage and are putting the call out nationally and internationally for workers.

Canberra was also stiffed by WilloTree's graph. His comment shaved almost 40% off our 2027 expected population.

The census revealed the ACT was at 454k in 2021, making Canberra-Queanbeyan 493k. By 2027, we'll be at 550k.

The ACT has also been the fastest growing state or territory for the second consecutive census, which means we've averaged the highest growth for the past 10 years.

Do you have Perth's predicted population? The census said almost 4 in 5 West Australians live in Perth, so if that trend continues, WA's predicted population of 3 million will have a population of 2.4m in Perth. So 800k per club if a third comes in. Safe to say that West Coast will take a bigger chunk of that 800k potential base, so you're probably looking at 500-600k potential pool at the most (depending how many can be persuaded to be converted).

Pretty much the same potential pool of fans as Canberra.

But I think we both agree Darwin is a terrible option for Team 20.

 

[WestCoast05]

Interesting insight.

Is the North/South divide strong in Perth?

A northern team means Freo would be pretty safe.

Would you expect many people to get on board? You'd think they'd have to average 25-30k or so to be considered worth it.

Do you have Perth's predicted population? The census said almost 4 in 5 West Australians live in Perth, so if that trend continues, WA's predicted population of 3 million will have a population of 2.4m in Perth. So 800k per club if a third comes in. Safe to say that West Coast will take a bigger chunk of that 800k potential base, so you're probably looking at 500-600k potential pool at the most (depending how many can be persuaded to be converted).

Pretty much the same potential pool of fans as Canberra.

Yeah Perth's identity is divided into North of River (NoR) and South of River. And the divide is [somewhat] real enough in terms of identity.
It's different than Sydney's East / West divide as that is more social classist in nature (that said, Perth's North of River is far wealthier than Perth's South).
So using that Northern Suburbs identity could clearly work as long as you didn't make the mistake of mis-identifying the team as the far Northern Suburbs (Joondalup, Wanneroo, Clarkson and the Northern Beaches).
The identity needs to be Northern Suburbs as in North of River, and then you get all the far Northern Suburbs anyway.
Now the next bit I don't know the figures but I think North of River quite easily has a larger population than South of River anyway, so that's another plus for a potential Perth3 team.

Not sure on official predictions (which seem to continually understated for WA) but as can be seen by the population count of 2,750,000 for 2021 and the influx that has happened in 2022 - we should hit 3 million before 2027.
I remember when predictions were WA would hit 3.2million by 2035, those predictions were obviously way off.

The state population matters as well (not just Perth) as they are still potential supporters/members and there actually is a strong culture of WA AFL team support in regional WA. Ppl bus in for games. Many in the South West region of WA support Fremantle as it represents 'South'.
In the same way perhaps work could be done to capture parts of regional Northern WA for the 'North' team - Geraldton would be the most obvious target.

Even if ACT's growth rate is larger in percentage it is not growing larger in real terms than Perth, let alone WA.

A third team will add to the dynamism of the Perth footy landscape, unlike Melbourne we're not at saturation point.

For the record I'm not starting all this as a case against a Canberra team. I support Canberra getting a team in the short to medium term, as well as Sydney3 in the more distant future.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yeah Perth's identity is divided into North of River (NoR) and South of River. And the divide is [somewhat] real enough in terms of identity.
It's different than Sydney's East / West divide as that is more social classist in nature (that said, Perth's North of River is far wealthier than Perth's South).
So using that Northern Suburbs identity could clearly work as long as you didn't make the mistake of mis-identifying the team as the far Northern Suburbs (Joondalup, Wanneroo, Clarkson and the Northern Beaches).
The identity needs to be Northern Suburbs as in North of River, and then you get all the far Northern Suburbs anyway.
Now the next bit I don't know the figures but I think North of River quite easily has a larger population than South of River anyway, so that's another plus for a potential Perth3 team.

Not sure on official predictions (which seem to continually understated for WA) but as can be seen by the population count of 2,750,000 for 2021 and the influx that has happened in 2022 - we should hit 3 million before 2027.
I remember when predictions were WA would hit 3.2million by 2035, those predictions were obviously way off.

The state population matters as well (not just Perth) as they are still potential supporters/members and there actually is a strong culture of WA AFL team support in regional WA. Ppl bus in for games. Many in the South West region of WA support Fremantle as it represents 'South'.
In the same way perhaps work could be done to capture parts of regional Northern WA for the 'North' team - Geraldton would be the most obvious target.

Even if ACT's growth rate is larger in percentage it is not growing larger in real terms than Perth, let alone WA.

A third team will add to the dynamism of the Perth footy landscape, unlike Melbourne we're not at saturation point.

For the record I'm not starting all this as a case against a Canberra team. I support Canberra getting a team in the short to medium term, as well as Sydney3 in the more distant future.

Interesting that the class divide goes that way. Do you think it's to do with mining money?

Adelaide and Canberra are both long and thin like Perth, with a separating body of water in the middle, but I've found the class divide is more to do with proximity to the city rather than which side they're on. Eastern Adelaide is rich, but it's so thin that most of it is really close to the CBD.

I'm also not against a third Perth team in the future.

Being in a contested area with rugby league (both Canberra and the nearby Riverina), I think the AFL has more to gain by adding a team (and more to lose by not adding a team). Canberra is an AFL(ish) town, but the Giants don't do AFL justice in Canberra.

Perth is probably an easy win though when the Team 21/22 expansion round comes.

Out of curiosity, if Perth got Team 20, do you think you'd be interested in switching allegiences?

 

[WestCoast05]

Interesting that the class divide goes that way. Do you think it's to do with mining money?

Adelaide and Canberra are both long and thin like Perth, with a separating body of water in the middle, but I've found the class divide is more to do with proximity to the city rather than which side they're on. Eastern Adelaide is rich, but it's so thin that most of it is really close to the CBD.

I'm also not against a third Perth team in the future.

Being in a contested area with rugby league (both Canberra and the nearby Riverina), I think the AFL has more to gain by adding a team (and more to lose by not adding a team). Canberra is an AFL(ish) town, but the Giants don't do AFL justice in Canberra.

Perth is probably an easy win though when the Team 21/22 expansion round comes.

Out of curiosity, if Perth got Team 20, do you think you'd be interested in switching allegiences?

It's not a class divide, NoR just has more wealth than SoR - SoR still has plenty of wealthy areas and NoR still has plenty of ghettos.

There's several reason to North having more wealth than South:

1. Fremantle (and suburbs) and Cockburn have always been traditionally working class being the Port and all (although now good luck bring able to afford living there).
2. Kwinana (South of River) which is next city south after Cockburn, is Perth's Heavy Industrial area. That of course brings prices down and therefore is also heavily working class. So traditionally you have had Fremantle, Cockburn, Kwinana, Rockingham all as working class cities all in a row.
3. Perth's next biggest Industrial, heavy commercial area Osborne Park/Kewdale is also South of River in the south east. And it is right next to Perth airport which is also SoR.
4. Armadale aka Armahole is Perth's poorest city in the far South East.
5. Perth's 'Golden Triangle' is Perth's richest area by far - known as the 'Western Suburbs' aka The Golden Triangle which is NoR (although quite central, but still NoR).
6. North of River is kilometres of uninterrupted white sand beaches with kilometres of suburbs of beachside mansions running up the Sunset Coast.
Whereas South of River is beach too but has the Henderson Shipyards and Kwinana Heavy Industrial Zone interrupting it.

And yes proximity to Perth (and now Fremantle) also boosts your property value here also.

I wouldn't switch from West Coast but who knows WA3 could perhaps find its way into my heart as my 2nd team... maybe

 

[Canberra Pear]

I wouldn't switch from West Coast but who knows WA3 could perhaps find its way into my heart as my 2nd team... maybe

I'll follow up with you if Team 20 goes to Perth

 

[madmug]

Yeah Perth's identity is divided into North of River (NoR) and South of River. And the divide is [somewhat] real enough in terms of identity.
It's different than Sydney's East / West divide as that is more social classist in nature (that said, Perth's North of River is far wealthier than Perth's South).
So using that Northern Suburbs identity could clearly work as long as you didn't make the mistake of mis-identifying the team as the far Northern Suburbs (Joondalup, Wanneroo, Clarkson and the Northern Beaches).
The identity needs to be Northern Suburbs as in North of River, and then you get all the far Northern Suburbs anyway.
Now the next bit I don't know the figures but I think North of River quite easily has a larger population than South of River anyway, so that's another plus for a potential Perth3 team.

Not sure on official predictions (which seem to continually understated for WA) but as can be seen by the population count of 2,750,000 for 2021 and the influx that has happened in 2022 - we should hit 3 million before 2027.
I remember when predictions were WA would hit 3.2million by 2035, those predictions were obviously way off.

The state population matters as well (not just Perth) as they are still potential supporters/members and there actually is a strong culture of WA AFL team support in regional WA. Ppl bus in for games. Many in the South West region of WA support Fremantle as it represents 'South'.
In the same way perhaps work could be done to capture parts of regional Northern WA for the 'North' team - Geraldton would be the most obvious target.

Even if ACT's growth rate is larger in percentage it is not growing larger in real terms than Perth, let alone WA.

A third team will add to the dynamism of the Perth footy landscape, unlike Melbourne we're not at saturation point.

For the record I'm not starting all this as a case against a Canberra team. I support Canberra getting a team in the short to medium term, as well as Sydney3 in the more distant future.

I've advocated Tas1 &WA3 for years. WA is our 2nd biggest footy market, has a great new stadium etc etc

In general, having sufficient population for supporting a team is one thing, but it needs to have some sort of a football orientated population, otherwise establishing a team will cost a fortune, with NO guarantee of it growing sufficiently to become reasonably self sufficient. Generational change sounds good. Is it a real thing? Is it 2nd, 3rd, 4th generation?

I cant see Syd3 for anytime this century, Nor Newcastle.

I don't believe ACT needs a generational change. Syd3 & Newcastle will.

The other factor with adding teams is the clear Elephant in the room, Its the number of teams in Melbourne.

Can we go to 20 clubs, 22, 24? Or do maybe 2 need to leave Melbourne??

(waiting for the hand grenade to blow up )

 

[kranger]

I don’t really support a WA3 option.

I can see why people like a WA3 option, considering the massive wealth and support per team in WA compared to teams in other states. But a WA3 would just dilute the strength of the two existing teams, rather than gaining anything for the AFL.

I see the benefits of a WA3 team being to WA, not to the AFL. In particular benefits surrounding stadiums.

Either a WA3 team would play at:
• Optus Stadium (likely with the top tier closed for games that aren’t against Freo/Eagles to reduce venue hire costs) increasing the number of events and therefore revenue for Optus Stadium; or
• at a smaller capacity stadium (brand new or upgraded WAFL ground), providing Perth with a secondary oval stadium, should Optus Stadium ever be unavailable (such as a soccer World Cup).

It would also mean another high quality AFL training facility. Hopefully it would be tied into an existing WAFL ground, benefiting that WAFL club, like what the Eagles did at Lathlain Park with the Perth Demons.

It would also hopefully mean more WA recruits in the AFL and AFLW, as the team favours local players in the bottom end of the draft, to lower the risk of the go home factor.

 

[TWLS]

It's not a class divide, NoR just has more wealth than SoR - SoR still has plenty of wealthy areas and NoR still has plenty of ghettos.

There's several reason to North having more wealth than South:

1. Fremantle (and suburbs) and Cockburn have always been traditionally working class being the Port and all (although now good luck bring able to afford living there).
2. Kwinana (South of River) which is next city south after Cockburn, is Perth's Heavy Industrial area. That of course brings prices down and therefore is also heavily working class. So traditionally you have had Fremantle, Cockburn, Kwinana, Rockingham all as working class cities all in a row.
3. Perth's next biggest Industrial, heavy commercial area Osborne Park/Kewdale is also South of River in the south east. And it is right next to Perth airport which is also SoR.
4. Armadale aka Armahole is Perth's poorest city in the far South East.
5. Perth's 'Golden Triangle' is Perth's richest area by far - known as the 'Western Suburbs' aka The Golden Triangle which is NoR (although quite central, but still NoR).
6. North of River is kilometres of uninterrupted white sand beaches with kilometres of suburbs of beachside mansions running up the Sunset Coast.
Whereas South of River is beach too but has the Henderson Shipyards and Kwinana Heavy Industrial Zone interrupting it.

And yes proximity to Perth (and now Fremantle) also boosts your property value here also.

I wouldn't switch from West Coast but who knows WA3 could perhaps find its way into my heart as my 2nd team... maybe

The ref to the Golden Triangle is correct. That is where the WASP power base lives and always will- Every Aust city has one.
The next WA team will likely come from north of Scarborough and run right through to Joondalup ending up in Yanchep. Perth is growing the same as LA with a freeway down the middle from Yanchep to Mandurah and that will bring all the LA type traffic problems which have arrived already due to Perth commuters switching from trains back to their cars since Covid arrived in March 2020. That is quite ironical considering the Labor State Govt is currently spending millions on new rail lines. Obviously looking to the future you could say.
Most new arrivals but not all here generally want to live near a beach and that is what is happening. It depends on their finances.

 

[Gigantor]

If they are to grant a 19th license, and that's still a pretty big if, then hands down it will be a 3rd Perth team for the 20th.
Absolutely hands down, no other option comes even close to ticking all the boxes.

 

[Philth]

If they are to grant a 19th license, and that's still a pretty big if, then hands down it will be a 3rd Perth team for the 20th.
Absolutely hands down, no other option comes even close to ticking all the boxes.

I just can't see a 20th team working, anywhere.
WA3 looks good on paper, but there is a reason that WCE are the biggest team in the country. Their fans are everywhere here. Many thousands of them would have to change teams to the new one.
Freo are no minnows either, and their fans won't jump ship.
Perth people tease each other a bit about the whole north/south of the river, but there's no real identity there.

If I had to vote for a 20th team, it would be NT.
But it would forever be financially propped up by the AFL.

 

[Philth]

I recently met a family that had moved to WA from Canberra, and they are committed GWS fans.
Have Canberra people embraced the Giants en masse?

 

[Gigantor]

I recently met a family that had moved to WA from Canberra, and they are committed GWS fans.
Have Canberra people embraced the Giants en masse?

They are currently getting better attendances in Canberra than they get at the Showgrounds.

 

[Rob]

Well, you've reached 40k for 3/8 of your home games, but point taken. You're doing well on and off the field.

But Freo haven't been a problem off the field in a couple of decades. Pre covid, crowds averaged 40k. How many clubs in the league can average 40k against interstate opposition in an ordinary year? Maybe 3 or 4.

Do you personally think there's room for a third team in the city?

I think there's room for Freo to grow and get 80-100k members, or there's room for a new team, but not for both.

My preference would be for two strong WA clubs.

I doubt any new team would have any effect on Freo.

But to answer your question, theoretically yes, but in reality I can't see any concept that would draw any sort of supporter base from the outset.
I think the idea of a Northern suburbs team is a total dud. That's West Coast heartland and no-ones dropping them. The only thing I can see working is a team based out in the City of Swan, somewhere between Ellenbrook and Midland. But even that would take a minimum of 20 years. Who's paying for it during that time?

 

[Walshawk]

They are currently getting better attendances in Canberra than they get at the Showgrounds.

If you take out the Swans games, they always have.

 

[Walshawk]

This is already old - the 2021 Census had to upscale WA's population to 2,750,000 (they found they were off by 68k).

On top of that Close to 100k ppl moved back to Perth since the border softening and opening of Feb/March this year (I don't know how many left at the same time but leaving was not the challenge during Covid, getting in was the challenge).
So it's reported 50k moved to Perth during the softening in Feb and then in the 5 March border opening 28k moved here in the first week alone. So it's reasonable we have had net increase of 100k+ considering it is now July.
The 3 million mark will be reached potentially within 3 years. So that is potentially 1 million ppl per club in WA.
This makes a lot more sense than Darwin with a population of 130k and NT with a population of 250k.

EDIT: on another note our regular growth rate (ie not the end of Covid border closeure growth rate) is no longer as high as it used to be (2.9%) but we have a larger population in real numbers and are still growing considerably. This is magnified by the fact we have a skills shortage and are putting the call out nationally and internationally for workers.

Yes but if Perth gets to 3m it would not be 1m per team. It would be 2m WC, 800k Freo and 200k (maybe, seriously, who is going to change clubs?) new team.

 

[Gigantor]

The argument for a third WA team is strictly commercial.
The AFL has made its strategic investments costing 100s of millions of dollars. That doesn't happen again for another 50 years, if ever.
If there is the slightest hint that a new Tassie team doesn't pay its own way 100% from the start, the idea gets shelved. It is not going to be a strategic investment for the AFL, and they are unlikely to do it for emotional reasons (ditto Darwin, and every other hair-brained suggestion).
If Tassie does go ahead, and that will be begrudgingly, then the 20th team gets introduced even more begrudgingly - and it will NOT be a strategic investment (as in spending hundreds of millions to expand into new markets) or done for emotional reasons.
The only solution is a 3rd Perth team, for the following commercial reasons:
- has the greatest chance of paying its own way, by far
- AFL mad city with growing population
- demand already exceeds supply by a long, long, long, long way (see point one and two)
- and this is perhaps the biggest reason of all - because of point 3, now is the time to reduce the attraction for another sport to mop up that excess demand - why give them a free kick? make it as tough as possible, and that is precisely what a 3rd Perth team would help achieve - that reason alone justifies it. Make market entry as difficult as possible (but to fulfill that, probably has to happen relatively quickly).

 

[kranger]

Either a WA3 team would play at:
• Optus Stadium (likely with the top tier closed for games that aren’t against Freo/Eagles to reduce venue hire costs) increasing the number of events and therefore revenue for Optus Stadium; or
• at a smaller capacity stadium (brand new or upgraded WAFL ground), providing Perth with a secondary oval stadium, should Optus Stadium ever be unavailable (such as a soccer World Cup).

Perth Stadium has a capacity of 61,266 in AFL mode.

I have finally got around to do some calculations of how this is split between levels:
1F - 21,000
2F, 3F, 4F - 16,000
5F - 24,000

In cricket mode you need to remove 5,000 from the ground floor due to the screens behind the bowlers arm.

In rectangle mode you can add 5,000 to the ground floor with the bump in seats.

So in AFL mode if you close the top level off it reduces capacity to 37,000, but still has all the corporate capabilities. This reduces capacity by about 40%, but would reduce game day operating costs by about 30% as there are likely some fixed costs, such as on field crew and management.

I didn't count them all, instead I estimated from an average each block, using the ticketmaster seat map, which gives the following break down:

1F - 21,000 - 48 blocks (50 minus 2 due to the gaps for onfield access), 23 rows, 19 seats wide average (16 seats wide at the front, 22 seats wide at the back)

3F behind the goals - 9,000 - 18 blocks, 24 rows, 21 seats wide average (19 seats wide at the front, 24 seats wide at the back)
3F southern wing - 5,000 - 15 blocks, 14 rows, 24 seats wide
2F, 3F, 4F corporate - 2,000

5F - 24,000 - 45 blocks (50 minus 4 due to the gaps for video screens, minus 1 due to the openings for disabled seats), 22 rows, 25 seats wide average (23 seats wide at the front, 28 seats wide at the back)



I would think 37,000 is a perfect capacity for a WA3 team. And even when Perth Stadium is expanded by 10,000 seats, they would all be in the top tier, so still that smaller capacity and venue hire.

 

[fargothegreat]

I don't think we're going to expand to 20 teams just for the sake of it, and personally I don't like the idea of expanding to an area that is already represented (WA3). I think the goal should be to have as many people represented with as few teams as possible. West Coast and Freo being strong clubs with lots of members is a good thing. If there's not enough room for them all in future, then increase the stadium's capacity.

The AFL's view at the moment is that they don't have a problem with 19 teams, but if they were to change their mind my tip would be that they would attempt to rationalise back down to 18 before thinking about expanding to 20.

 

[TWLS]

But Freo haven't been a problem off the field in a couple of decades. Pre covid, crowds averaged 40k. How many clubs in the league can average 40k against interstate opposition in an ordinary year? Maybe 3 or 4.



I doubt any new team would have any effect on Freo.

But to answer your question, theoretically yes, but in reality I can't see any concept that would draw any sort of supporter base from the outset.
I think the idea of a Northern suburbs team is a total dud. That's West Coast heartland and no-ones dropping them. The only thing I can see working is a team based out in the City of Swan, somewhere between Ellenbrook and Midland. But even that would take a minimum of 20 years. Who's paying for it during that time?

Yes your very anti Northern Suburbs/ Joondalup attitude is apparent in your posts. We are talking about something that might never happen -At least another 20 years if ever.

 

[Mr north man]

A new WA team brings 11 more games to sell in Perth at that stadium and 4 more local derbies that become cash cows if the new side can be grown and have a reasonable supporter base over time.
That also means one less interstate trip for the WA sides.
Perth is a big footy market that is currently getting only 22 games of live AFL played there a season. There has to be some growth to be squeezed out of that situation.

Look at what the NRL are doing with the new side in Brisbane. They seem to be able to justify expanding in a similar situation.

only way a 3rd WA Team would work that was based somewhere out of the CBD of Perth simerler to Geelong maybe a Team out near Peel?