It depends how wide you consider the catchment.
Yes it's the size and the probability within that catchment.
So metro area can be considered solid potential with the prospects diminishing with distance.
I know people who travel from Bunbury to watch AFL.
I see the Tasmanian catchment as initially more fervent than anywhere else.
They have been waiting a very long time watching their stars bypass their heritage.
They have 200,000 "members", now one of the biggest clubs in the world and haven't played yet.
I see Tasmania as a Geelong - punching above their numerical weight.
I see Canberra support as potentially growing very fast.
The draw of a national AFL team in the nation's capital is a lot stronger than another AFL team in say Sydney.