20th AFL Team

[RedV3x]

It depends how wide you consider the catchment.

Yes it's the size and the probability within that catchment.
So metro area can be considered solid potential with the prospects diminishing with distance.
I know people who travel from Bunbury to watch AFL.

I see the Tasmanian catchment as initially more fervent than anywhere else.
They have been waiting a very long time watching their stars bypass their heritage.
They have 200,000 "members", now one of the biggest clubs in the world and haven't played yet.
I see Tasmania as a Geelong - punching above their numerical weight.

I see Canberra support as potentially growing very fast.
The draw of a national AFL team in the nation's capital is a lot stronger than another AFL team in say Sydney.

 

[Bjo187]

I think what the analysis does do is weaken the n.t bid (which anybody with common sense already knew), it strengthens the Canberra bid, but it also strengthens the Perth 3 bid a fair bit too, as it shows that it's a significantly underutilized market.

 

[kranger]

Yes it's the size and the probability within that catchment.
So metro area can be considered solid potential with the prospects diminishing with distance.
I know people who travel from Bunbury to watch AFL.

I see the Tasmanian catchment as initially more fervent than anywhere else.
They have been waiting a very long time watching their stars bypass their heritage.
They have 200,000 "members", now one of the biggest clubs in the world and haven't played yet.
I see Tasmania as a Geelong - punching above their numerical weight.

I see Canberra support as potentially growing very fast.
The draw of a national AFL team in the nation's capital is a lot stronger than another AFL team in say Sydney.

This post is adding to what RedV3x is talking about with the catchment area. Each of these maps are the same scale.

Ignore me drawing in Yanchep to the north of Perth, it’s just a reference as it is planned as the northern town centre and the Perth train network just got extended to it, but it only has about 10,000 residents at the moment. Mandurah in the south is just considered a southern suburb of Perth. As RedV3x mentioned, people travel from Bunbury, but it is twice as far south as Mandurah.


It shows how Sydney can also pull from Central Coast and Wollongong very easily, and Newcastle at a stretch, which are over a million people combined.

Brisbane can also pull from Sunshine Coast relatively easily.

In Melbourne, Geelong is pretty close but Ballarat and Bendigo start to get a bit far away.

When it comes to Canberra, the surrounding significantly sized towns start to get a bit too far away.

 

[RedV3x]

Ignore me drawing in Yanchep to the north of Perth, it’s just a reference as it is planned as the northern town centre and the Perth train network just got extended to it, but it only has about 10,000 residents at the moment. Mandurah in the south is just considered a southern suburb of Perth. As RedV3x mentioned, people travel from Bunbury, but it is twice as far south as Mandurah.

What you say is factual but in reality the coast is split between the existing two AFL teams.
The N.E. (Ellenbrook) and S.E. (Armadale) should be the target of any new team.

It shows how Sydney can also pull from Central Coast and Wollongong very easily, and Newcastle at a stretch, which are over a million people combined.

No. It has been demonstrated that Sydney people don't like to travel - public transport, tolls and don't like to travel full stop. Wollongong and Newcastle would be better as targets rather than catchments. You'd get a few from the Central Coast but not a lot.

Brisbane can also pull from Sunshine Coast relatively easily.

Yes.

In Melbourne, Geelong is pretty close but Ballarat and Bendigo start to get a bit far away.

But a simple straight run.

When it comes to Canberra, the surrounding significantly sized towns start to get a bit too far away.

As long as the people are there, it could be an advantage as they don't identify with any "significantly sized town".

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I think what the analysis does do is weaken the n.t bid (which anybody with common sense already knew), it strengthens the Canberra bid, but it also strengthens the Perth 3 bid a fair bit too, as it shows that it's a significantly underutilized market.

Yes - I think NT (even in combination with a NQ bid) is inferior in almost all metrics to Canberra and WA3. The only way they are viable is if the Commonwealth Government provides massive $ as part of addressing indigenous issues and to balance the significant $$ Albo is giving the NRL for the PNG team

 

[budge27]

For example, in WA, it’s hard to put a number on it, but it seems like half of AFL fans support West Coast, a quarter support Freo and then the other quarter support the other 16 teams. Essentially dividing the support up between 3 teams.

Interesting observation - my personal take on the WA split has generally been:
60% WCE
25% Freo
15% the rest

Winning 4 premierships, 7 GF’s and regular finals appearances has really solidified the Eagles in the WA market that makes it hard to get any of them to change to a new WA3 team.

 

[Bjo187]

Interesting observation - my personal take on the WA split has generally been:
60% WCE
25% Freo
15% the rest

Winning 4 premierships, 7 GF’s and regular finals appearances has really solidified the Eagles in the WA market that makes it hard to get any of them to change to a new WA3 team.

A new team should be targeting that '15% the rest' as their initial base. Those people, plus the other footy fans that are locked/priced out of attending eagles and dockers games gives them an ok market to build off of.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Interesting observation - my personal take on the WA split has generally been:
60% WCE
25% Freo
15% the rest

Winning 4 premierships, 7 GF’s and regular finals appearances has really solidified the Eagles in the WA market that makes it hard to get any of them to change to a new WA3 team.

This is what I've been trying to say.

West Coast had an eight-year headstart over Freo. Freo will have a 35-year headstart on WA3. WA3 will struggle in comparison.

The majority of those 15% have stubbornly stuck with their interstate teams. There's been capacity at Freo games, but they've chosen to stick with their old team.

People go on and on about the huge population of Perth, but even if they capture that whole 15% (which is highly unlikely), that's only 345k people (60% smaller than Greater Canberra)

If they started at a similar time, Perth split three ways would be great, but that just won't be the case.

 

[Badger17]

Whilst I agree the catchment for a Canberra team is bigger, I don't think it can be guaranteed that people in southern NSW will definitely have an attachment to the club, like all Tasmanian's will to the devils.

It's why I don't mind the idea of the team name being Canberra SNSW, as that recognition might draw in a lot more people from those regions to support the new club.

They don't need to be fans of the Canberra side to benefit the Canberra side.

A good portion of the away support at Raiders games are people traveling from the broader region to support the away team. On average that's thousands of people per game, and I see no reason why that would be any different for an AFL side.

Trying to have a single side that represents both Canberra and Southern NSW never works either. As a general rule people in Southern NSW simply don't feel strong fealty to Canberra in that way and stick with their preferred teams rather than switching to support the Canberran side, and overly focusing on trying to grow support over the boarder generally tanks support in Canberra. It's a you can't be everything to everyone situation.

Outside of Queanbeyan, Yass, and maybe a few other places that are close by, the Raiders aren't particularly popular, but again that doesn't matter because those people don't need to support the club for the club to monetise them.

 

[RedV3x]

Interesting observation - my personal take on the WA split has generally been:
15% the rest

I don't think so. I'm Sydney swans fan, but I've adopted the Dockers for all other games.
If you are a football fan in W.A. you're either Eagles or Dockers - first or second.

Also the Dockers picked up the remaining dissatisfied Eagles and rusted on WAFL fans.
It'd be like trying to establish another AFL side in Melbourne - the division is already established.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I'm not a fan of incorporating Riverina or SNSW into the name if Canberra gets a team. It becomes too much like GWS, trying to please everyone and ultimately a little confusing.

The Giants have shown that trying to please two markets is tricky to do.

I think the vast majority of Canberra fans (especially attending fans) would come from within 90 mins of Canberra.

The Riverina is a nice-to-have addition, but I think they might add 5-10% to the overall fandom. I think the real benefit of the Riverina is the players. Canberra would be attractive to Riverina players as they could live almost twice as close to family as current clubs allow.

My personal view is Canberra should have a presence in SNSW, but it shouldn't stretch to "claim" it. I think one AFLM, one AFLW and a preseason game in Wagga is perfect.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Disagree. It should be called the Murray-Murrumbidgee Marvels (Marvel sponsoring them of course).

 

[Canberra Pear]

Disagree. It should be called the Murray-Murrumbidgee Marvels (Marvel sponsoring them of course).

With a joint sponsorship from Triple M?

 

[Walshawk]

I'm not a fan of incorporating Riverina or SNSW into the name if Canberra gets a team. It becomes too much like GWS, trying to please everyone and ultimately a little confusing.

The Giants have shown that trying to please two markets is tricky to do.

I think the vast majority of Canberra fans (especially attending fans) would come from within 90 mins of Canberra.

The Riverina is a nice-to-have addition, but I think they might add 5-10% to the overall fandom. I think the real benefit of the Riverina is the players. Canberra would be attractive to Riverina players as they could live almost twice as close to family as current clubs allow.

My personal view is Canberra should have a presence in SNSW, but it shouldn't stretch to "claim" it. I think one AFLM, one AFLW and a preseason game in Wagga is perfect.

Wagga is starting from scratch in terms of hosting an AFL game. $75m - $100m to get something up to Ballarat standard ($50m spent there but most works were done a decade ago). They could do some works at Robertson Oval to get it up for a pre-season or AFLW match.

Lavington Oval @ Albury is ready to go

 

[Canberra Pear]

Wagga is starting from scratch in terms of hosting an AFL game. $75m - $100m to get something up to Ballarat standard ($50m spent there but most works were done a decade ago). They could do some works at Robertson Oval to get it up for a pre-season or AFLW match.

Lavington Oval @ Albury is ready to go

It's probably not regular season-ready, but Wagga held both an AFLW and preseason match in 2020.

I know Albury is bigger and has a better stadium, but it feels that one bit further removed from Canberra. I know not everyone in the Riverina is going to identify with Canberra, but I feel Wagga is at least more in Canberra's orbit, while Albury is just as close to Melbourne.

 

[Walshawk]

It's probably not regular season-ready, but Wagga held both an AFLW and preseason match in 2020.

I know Albury is bigger and has a better stadium, but it feels that one bit further removed from Canberra. I know not everyone in the Riverina is going to identify with Canberra, but I feel Wagga is at least more in Canberra's orbit, while Albury is just as close to Melbourne.

It has 350 seats!

Robertson Oval | Austadiums

Information about Robertson Oval in Wagga Wagga including venue layout, history, records, events, map, tickets, directions and accommodation.

www.austadiums.com

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The majority of those 15% have stubbornly stuck with their interstate teams. There's been capacity at Freo games, but they've chosen to stick with their old team.

There isn't much capacity at Freo games anymore. I do think at some point it'll be detrimental to the game in WA if there aren't enough cheap tickets due to demand.

 

[qlderlions]

I don't think so. I'm Sydney swans fan, but I've adopted the Dockers for all other games.
If you are a football fan in W.A. you're either Eagles or Dockers - first or second.

Also the Dockers picked up the remaining dissatisfied Eagles and rusted on WAFL fans.
It'd be like trying to establish another AFL side in Melbourne - the division is already established.

Not true - I spent 7 years living in WA and remained true to the Lions. I worked with and many of my friends were Eastern Staters ex-pats that always remained true to their teams. I think the 15% is spot on.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It has 350 seats!

Robertson Oval | Austadiums

Information about Robertson Oval in Wagga Wagga including venue layout, history, records, events, map, tickets, directions and accommodation.

www.austadiums.com

It's not ideal, but but the AFLW match got 3.4k and the preseason game got 6.6k.

It can satisfactorily host a single AFLW and preseason game each year (not regular season men's). Then the high crowds will justify more seating.

 

[Badger17]

I'm not a fan of incorporating Riverina or SNSW into the name if Canberra gets a team. It becomes too much like GWS, trying to please everyone and ultimately a little confusing.

The Giants have shown that trying to please two markets is tricky to do.

I think the vast majority of Canberra fans (especially attending fans) would come from within 90 mins of Canberra.

The Riverina is a nice-to-have addition, but I think they might add 5-10% to the overall fandom. I think the real benefit of the Riverina is the players. Canberra would be attractive to Riverina players as they could live almost twice as close to family as current clubs allow.

My personal view is Canberra should have a presence in SNSW, but it shouldn't stretch to "claim" it. I think one AFLM, one AFLW and a preseason game in Wagga is perfect.

Playing games in Wagga doesn't make any sense at all. It only really gets suggested by people that roll out a map and see that both cities are near each other, but have no real understanding of the broader context in the region.

Firstly there's no reason why a Canberra side would need to take games away in the first place, but assuming that they must, there's no way that it'd be financially viable to take games to Wagga unless the NSW Gov was willing to build an AFL ready stadium and pay for the games, which is highly unlikely IMO.

Even then if you were going to take games away and you could convince the NSW Gov to build you the facilities you'd be better off either; A. selling them to a larger market that's further afield but where there's more money to be made (Wollongong, Newcastle, Albury Wodonga, etc), or B. go somewhere more within Canberra's orbit that'd be attractive to both regional fans and to Canberra based fans as a day trip (maybe Batemans Bay or somewhere similar on the South Coast).

You don't need to play games in the Riverina to have an academy there either.

 

[Bjo187]

Albury is a community that you'd get benefit in getting behind the new team, they have a good stadium too. Get that connection from the start and people from Albury/wodonga will jump on board imo.

 

[RedV3x]

Not true - I spent 7 years living in WA and remained true to the Lions.

So you haven't gone to any AFL games ?

 

[Coolangatta]

Albury is a community that you'd get benefit in getting behind the new team, they have a good stadium too. Get that connection from the start and people from Albury/wodonga will jump on board imo.

You don’t want an under serviced Canberra market, though. They need to be playing 10 games minimum at Manuka imo.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Playing games in Wagga doesn't make any sense at all. It only really gets suggested by people that roll out a map and see that both cities are near each other, but have no real understanding of the broader context in the region.

They're not too culturally similar, but an AFL team wouldn't be the first to link in.

The Raiders play an annual game at Wagga. And the Brumbies have played a few preseason matches.

Firstly there's no reason why a Canberra side would need to take games away in the first place, but assuming that they must, there's no way that it'd be financially viable to take games to Wagga unless the NSW Gov was willing to build an AFL ready stadium and pay for the games, which is highly unlikely IMO.

I do agree with this. There's not an actual need for Canberra to sell games.

I think Southern NSW helps with the romance of the bid. Tasmania and the NT is romantic. Canberra by itself is not. But it doesn't need to be. The bid should be based more on facts and numbers than romance.

Even then if you were going to take games away and you could convince the NSW Gov to build you the facilities you'd be better off either; A. selling them to a larger market that's further afield but where there's more money to be made (Wollongong, Newcastle, Albury Wodonga, etc), or B. go somewhere more within Canberra's orbit that'd be attractive to both regional fans and to Canberra based fans as a day trip (maybe Batemans Bay or somewhere similar on the South Coast).

The South Coast is a brilliant idea for a preseason or AFLW match. There's not one individual town bigger than Wagga, but they collectively have a similar population to the Riverina. It's also full of Canberrans and would be incredibly popular to travel to (a lot of Canberrans already have another house down there anyway).

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

If you're including places like Burnie and Devonport in Tasmania, then for comparison's sake, Wagga and Nowra are closer to Canberra, and the catchment grows beyond 800k.

In this measure, Tasmania would have 171k fanatics, but Greater Hobart would only have 78k fanatics.

I agree that somebody from Burnie will have more attachment than somebody from Wagga.


But in terms of attending, I think they're both pretty unlikely to attend frequent games at their primary grounds. Likewise, I think the number of fans travelling from Hobart to Launceston will be pretty minimal.

Together, the two Tasmanian markets have more AFL fans than Canberra, but Canberra has more than either of them individually. I guess time will tell just how much those two markets will overlap.

The North West (Devonport, Burnie etc) is probably the strongest grassroots footy region in the whole of Tasmania and together with Northern Tas (Launceston and surrounds) they have a combined population of approx 270k. Devonport (1 hr) and Burnie (1.5 hrs) are very much within driving distance of Launceston and I’m certain that footy fans from those regions will vote with their feet in support of the Devils.

Four Devils’ games per season will be played at an upgraded UTAS (23k). There are already thousands of NW coasters who attend Hawthorn games. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there are 5k+ NW Coasters attending Devils games in Launceston, particularly since the Hobart games are far more inaccessible for them. There will surely be membership packages that target supporters who only plan to attend games on their side of the state (e.g. South 7 games, North 4).

Connecting with the whole state has been a core tenet of the Devils ever since the business case was released and it has continued since the club’s board was announced. The board have also been backing this up with their actions so far (e.g. holding cultural fabric sessions all over the state, the club launch being held simultaneously at multiple sites, rotating board meetings between cities etc). The model that’s going to work for Tassie really is very different to what will work for most other clubs, so it’s pleasing that the board are in-tune with this notion so far.

If the 20th club is called Canberra and plays minimal games outside of the capital, then could we expect a similar level of buy-in from people who actually reside in another state? Particularly when a significant percentage of them may follow other codes in addition to/ instead of AFL. Simply, I believe there are more nuanced factors at play in addition to the obvious ones, population and distance. If Canberra’s population keeps growing at current levels then there’ll come a point in time when they won’t even need to worry about the regions anyway.