20th AFL Team

[Johnny Bananas]

Something to consider with Newcastle is what the incoming reduction in demand for coal will do to the economy there. China is the biggest coal market, but it's expected to peak in coal demand in 2025 and reduce from there. They're investing massively in renewables to wean themselves off imported coal. Once energy storage becomes more effective, I can see a big reduction in coal demand.

I don't think that will mean complete devastation for Newcastle or anything, after all they survived the closure of the steel industry. But it may hamper the economy there for up to a decade, and that will reduce people's capacity to spend.

 

[RedV3x]

Newcastle ffs now I've heard everything.

Problem with your hearing aid perhaps.

They've made precisely 0 contribution to the AFL

Completely false.
The few times AFL matches have been hosted in Newcastle they have been well attended.
I'm completely confident that if more AFL matches were hosted in Newcastle they would be well attended.
Newcastle can only contribute to AFL if the AFL lets them.
Meanwhile Newcastle has a rich history of Australian Football and is host to clubs in a league that is central to the Hunter.

now everyone wants a team there.

People like me are suggesting that if the AFL invests in Newcastle that they will be rewarded.
It wont be overnight but I'm confident Newcastle would respond well.

If all you look for us people may as well put a team in India.

Australian Footbal has boomed in recent decades.
lW.A.F.L. teams, Subiaco and East Perth toured India in October, 1969 promoting Australian Rules Football in the Sub-Continent. Two games were played in New Delhi, with each team winning a game. Subiaco narrowly won the first game while East Perth comfortably won the second game; 24.20 (164) to 12.10 (82).
There were even suggestions at that time of a WAFL team in India.

If demand isn't there doesn't matter what you do.

Demand follows a good product and AFL is a good product.

 

[RedV3x]

Just looking at population as a metric is the reason GWS is an abject failure

Yet GWS has better metrics than many WS NRL clubs.

the China experiment never took off

Completely wrong.
Port Adelaide's venture was doing extremely well until politics got in the way.

venture and why the sport is not international.

Completely wrong.
Australian Football is played regularly in over 55 countries and there are many international
Australian Football matches and competitions each year.

Arguing for a team there to discredit the NT bid is just clutching at straws.

Only you are suggesting this.
People acknowledge that the N.T. is a strong football region but running an AFL team would struggle to be viable.

people afre suggesting that the AFL needs to invest in Newcastle if they want Newcastle to blossom as a football city.

 

[GC2015]

Are people just assuming Newcastle is a good idea because of the 500k+ population and the fact that it's the largest city in Australia that doesn't already have an AFL team? I think the similarly sized Canberra and Sunshine Coast markets are far better suited to AFL expansion than the hardcore rugby league town of Newcastle. Simply being slightly larger in population doesn't necessarily mean it's a better option for expansion when compared to places that have a decent Aussie rules following like Canberra and the Sunny Coast.

 

[Bjo187]

Are people just assuming Newcastle is a good idea because of the 500k+ population and the fact that it's the largest city in Australia that doesn't already have an AFL team? I think the similarly sized Canberra and Sunshine Coast markets are far better suited to AFL expansion than the hardcore rugby league town of Newcastle. Simply being slightly larger in population doesn't necessarily mean it's a better option for expansion when compared to places that have a decent Aussie rules following like Canberra and the Sunny Coast.

I don't think people are suggesting it for team 20, however I do think investing some time into some matches there and fostering a bit of growth would be smart. I also think it's a better idea than n.t if it came down to the two, not necessarily coz it's a good idea, but a less bad one than Darwin.

 

[GC2015]

I don't think people are suggesting it for team 20, however I do think investing some time into some matches there and fostering a bit of growth would be smart. I also think it's a better idea than n.t if it came down to the two, not necessarily coz it's a good idea, but a less bad one than Darwin.

The first step would be for Newcastle to host an actual H&A match. Have a team like North transfer one of their Tassie home games to Newcastle and host the Swans there. They can use local boy Isaac Heeney as a way of promoting the match. Then you can gauge the interest level within the Newcastle market. The fact that this hasn't already happened tells me that Newcastle isn't really in the cards for the AFL at the moment.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Are people just assuming Newcastle is a good idea because of the 500k+ population and the fact that it's the largest city in Australia that doesn't already have an AFL team? I think the similarly sized Canberra and Sunshine Coast markets are far better suited to AFL expansion than the hardcore rugby league town of Newcastle. Simply being slightly larger in population doesn't necessarily mean it's a better option for expansion when compared to places that have a decent Aussie rules following like Canberra and the Sunny Coast.

As Bjo187 says, I'm definitely not implying Newcastle is a good idea anytime soon, mostly that it's still better than Darwin.

But developments at the oval makes it more suitable for future games. If Canberra gets the 20th team, there will soon be three fewer secondary markets, so Newcastle could make sense as a secondary market.

As for the Sunny Coast, I'd also say the 20th team is beyond reach. But it'd have to be a real target if the AFL ever expands to 22 teams.

 

[RedV3x]

The first step would be for Newcastle to host an actual H&A match.

The first step would be for Newcastle to host pre-season matches and take it from there.

The fact that this hasn't already happened tells me that Newcastle isn't really in the cards for the AFL at the moment.

Not exactly..
Since Covid the AFL hasn't got out of the box except for Tasmania and the Gather Round.

 

[GC2015]

The first step would be for Newcastle to host pre-season matches and take it from there.

That already happened. The Swans used to play pre-season matches in Newcastle. Next step is a H&A match in Newcastle.

Not exactly..
Since Covid the AFL hasn't got out of the box except for Tasmania and the Gather Round.

Probably because they're still focused on making things work in western Sydney and the Gold Coast before they turn their attention to another non-traditional market. It would be an unneccesary risk to expand into a place like Newcastle right now.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Are people just assuming Newcastle is a good idea because of the 500k+ population and the fact that it's the largest city in Australia that doesn't already have an AFL team? I think the similarly sized Canberra and Sunshine Coast markets are far better suited to AFL expansion than the hardcore rugby league town of Newcastle. Simply being slightly larger in population doesn't necessarily mean it's a better option for expansion when compared to places that have a decent Aussie rules following like Canberra and the Sunny Coast.

It has to be Canberra

 

[Aussie in exile]

As Bjo187 says, I'm definitely not implying Newcastle is a good idea anytime soon, mostly that it's still better than Darwin.

But developments at the oval makes it more suitable for future games. If Canberra gets the 20th team, there will soon be three fewer secondary markets, so Newcastle could make sense as a secondary market.

As for the Sunny Coast, I'd also say the 20th team is beyond reach. But it'd have to be a real target if the AFL ever expands to 22 teams.

Most of us will be long dead before Newcastle has a AFL club

 

[BigChippa52]

Really wished the AFL would make all teams play their preseason matches at regional grounds in general and just promote the living end out of it as a community series like it was in the past with an additional bonus of the top team (2 rounds) winning X amount of money.

Granted, it would probably cost a lot to install broadcasting equipment like cameras at some of the grounds and some of the cities like Canberra already host GWS pre-season game but it would allow greater exposure of regional cities or towns that could have promise or support of having an AFL team in the future such as Newcastle, North Queensland or South-West Perth from occurring.

For example, teams could play their annual pre-season match at the following city / town in 5-10 years time with appropriate developments done with stadiums and facilities, if needed*:

Adelaide - (Mount Gambier, SA)
Brisbane - (Cairns, QLD)
Carlton - (Joondalup, WA)
Collingwood - (Sunshine Coast, QLD)
Essendon - (Darwin, NT)
Fremantle - (Mandurah, WA)
Geelong - (Newcastle, NSW)
Gold Coast - (Sunshine Coast, QLD)
GWS - (Canberra, ACT)
Hawthorn - (Townsville, QLD)
Melbourne - (Alice Springs, NT)
North Melbourne - (Canberra, ACT)
Port Adelaide - (Victor Harbour, SA)
Richmond - (Darwin, NT)
St. Kilda - (Barossa, SA)
Sydney - (Newcastle, NSW)
Tasmania - (Launceston, TAS)
West Coast - (Bunbury, WA)
Western Bulldogs - (Wollongong, NSW)

Altogether, this would equate to 4x in QLD (2x SEQ & 2x NQ), 3x in NSW, 3x in NT, 3x in SA, 3x in WA, 2x in ACT and 1x in TAS.

*- Should be noted that Victorian clubs would play outside of Victoria during the entire series with most of the teams playing their home matches to help grow the sporting code nationally and in particular the northern states such as ACT, NSW & NT & QLD with double ups also happening in cities such as Canberra, Darwin, Newcastle and Sunshine Coast as they are the most viable in terms of financial and population basis ATM.

hmmm what ground would hold the pre season game in the mount?

 

[BigChippa52]

it seems like BLSP or Malseed would be the choice but i think McDonald park would be great and my personal choice

 

[BigChippa52]

if the opponent was essendon Mcdonald park would be great

 

[RedV3x]

That already happened. The Swans used to play pre-season matches in Newcastle. Next step is a H&A match in Newcastle.

The next step would be to resume pre-season matches.

Probably because they're still focused on making things work in western Sydney and the Gold Coast before they turn their attention to another non-traditional market.

GWS and GC are up and running.

It would be an unneccesary risk to expand into a place like Newcastle right now.

There is no risk and little cost in some basic measures like pre-season matches.
H&A games are a bit more cost/benefit.
Investment is relative.

 

[GC2015]

The next step would be to resume pre-season matches.

That's not really the next step. Unless you're saying they took a backwards step at some point and you think they should step forwards to where they were again.

GWS and GC are up and running.

The AFL want them to be self sufficient. Far too reliant on the AFL right now.

There is no risk and little cost in some basic measures like pre-season matches.
H&A games are a bit more cost/benefit.
Investment is relative.

If it's such a small risk then why isn't it happening?

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

How come you don't have a BBL team then, even though Tassie do? The economics for cricket Australia would have been easier than an AFL team as cricket gets the whole summer with barely any competition?

CA were bound by the full-member state associations, of which Tasmania is one and ACT is not.
If not for the state based nature of CA, there would be no Hobart team in the BBL.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Didn't the Comets get the boot from the mercantile one day comp as no one was turning up to watch?

The Comets found it difficult to get players on the same level, not being able to provide full-time contracts due to not being in the Shield. It was club cricketers looking for a few weeks pay, or past-it Merv Hughes types doing the equivalent of an AFL player playing a one-off bush league match as part of their retirement earnings.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

it seems like BLSP or Malseed would be the choice but i think McDonald park would be great and my personal choice

Malseed would probably be favourites given the inferior capacity and has hosted a pre-season match before but McDonald Park or BLSP wouldn't be a bad shout either depending on if the grounds get redeveloped in the future.

But the main purpose of my concept mentioned above was to grow the game into future markets and regions especially in NSW, QLD, ACT and NT while also giving back to the regions in the country and rural of SA & WA.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

As Bjo187 says, I'm definitely not implying Newcastle is a good idea anytime soon, mostly that it's still better than Darwin.

But developments at the oval makes it more suitable for future games. If Canberra gets the 20th team, there will soon be three fewer secondary markets, so Newcastle could make sense as a secondary market.

As for the Sunny Coast, I'd also say the 20th team is beyond reach. But it'd have to be a real target if the AFL ever expands to 22 teams.

Looking at all the gossip and information coming from the news regarding the 20th team from the past couple of years, there's only four serious routes that the AFL could take here for the club to ready by 5-10 years:

From my preference of most likely to least likely, it would be:

FAVOURITES

1) Canberra and ACT region

2) Perth or Western Australia 3 (either Northern or South-West WA)

_______________________________________________________________

OUTSIDERS

3) Northern Australia (Northern Territory & North Queensland combined)

4) Norwood / South Australia 3

Each option IMO all have positives and negatives associated to them and maybe I'll explain more in another post someday but if the AFL wanted to continue growing the sporting code around the country, Canberra would be the favourite and my pick if it came to vote (lived there for a while btw).

Regarding the future of the competition though, it'll be interesting to see if the DAZN broadcasting deal would impact a lot of expansion decisions coming in beyond Tasmania and whenever after 20 teams, international broadcasters such as DAZN, Amazon, Netflix or Disney (if signed with others) start to give the AFL ideas of adding more clubs in states such as WA, NSW & QLD in expense of a reduction of Victorian clubs happening similar to the NFL model to maximise benefits for all parties involved.

This could result in those regional cities or regions such as Newcastle, Darwin, Auckland, North Queensland, Sunshine Coast / Brisbane 2, Joonalup or even South-Western WA biding for a relocated Victorian club in the future instead of having their own standalone license as the AFL can only prop up so many teams in the competition (24 at max).

 

[Bjo187]

Looking at all the gossip and information coming from the news regarding the 20th team from the past couple of years, there's only four serious routes that the AFL could take here for the club to ready by 5-10 years:

From my preference of most likely to least likely, it would be:

FAVOURITES

1) Canberra and ACT region

2) Perth or Western Australia 3 (either Northern or South-West WA)

_______________________________________________________________

OUTSIDERS

3) Northern Australia (Northern Territory & North Queensland combined)

4) Norwood / South Australia 3

Each option IMO all have positives and negatives associated to them and maybe I'll explain more in another post someday but if the AFL wanted to continue growing the sporting code around the country, Canberra would be the favourite and my pick if it came to vote (lived there for a while btw).

Regarding the future of the competition though, it'll be interesting to see if the DAZN broadcasting deal would impact a lot of expansion decisions coming in beyond Tasmania and whenever after 20 teams, international broadcasters such as DAZN, Amazon, Netflix or Disney (if signed with others) start to give the AFL ideas of adding more clubs in states such as WA, NSW & QLD in expense of a reduction of Victorian clubs happening similar to the NFL model to maximise benefits for all parties involved.

This could result in those regional cities or regions such as Newcastle, Darwin, Auckland, North Queensland, Sunshine Coast / Brisbane 2, Joonalup or even South-Western WA biding for a relocated Victorian club in the future instead of having their own standalone license as the AFL can only prop up so many teams in the competition (24 at max).

I agree with all that and I don't particularly ever wanna go past 20 clubs, so relocated Victorian clubs makes sense, however it's unlikely as the afl wouldn't have the fortitude to force it.

The other two you're forgetting in the list are Brisbane 2 and north Queensland. The afl love Queensland and the growth there has been huge, so going off history, I think it would be there on the outsiders list for sure.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I agree with all that and I don't particularly ever wanna go past 20 clubs, so relocated Victorian clubs makes sense, however it's unlikely as the afl wouldn't have the fortitude to force it.

The other two you're forgetting in the list are Brisbane 2 and north Queensland. The afl love Queensland and the growth there has been huge, so going off history, I think it would be there on the outsiders list for sure.

An NQ team (similar to the NT bid) is going to be a finanical black-hole for a team up there in the competition and even if they did combine with NT (as my previous post) similar to Eddie McGuire's proposal, would struggle to attract players and coaches to the club unless they are from those regions attached given the conditions but also travel load.

Brisbane 2 is an interesting one as it's very 50/50 by some on here. GC2015 believes there should another Brisbane team and while I'm not all for it especially as the 20th team, can see the merit of that happening sooner rather than later as the 21st and 22nd depending on the Lions rapid improvement right now, the GABBA vs Vic park stadium ordeal and the SEQ Olympics in 2032 causing massive population and financial growth in Queensland.

Still think personally, a relocated Victorian club as Brisbane 2 might be a better option than plunking a brand new license up there so the club can still have an additional support base alas like the Bears & Lions have achieved. The team would probably play all their matches in Brisbane as well but would need to represent the Northern Brisbane and Sunshine Coast region with scope to have their training base and take 1-2 matches up on the coast.

Again though, GC2015 is probably the best person to talk QLD expansion though but I probably can't see NQ or Brisbane 2 coming in until the 22nd team at earliest especially if WA3 and Canberra are the hot favourites for the next two spots.

 

[GC2015]

Brisbane 2 is an interesting one as it's very 50/50 by some on here. GC2015 believes there should another Brisbane team and while I'm not all for it especially as the 20th team, can see the merit of that happening sooner rather than later as the 21st and 22nd depending on the Lions rapid improvement right now, the GABBA vs Vic park stadium ordeal and the SEQ Olympics in 2032 causing massive population and financial growth in Queensland.

Still think personally, a relocated Victorian club as Brisbane 2 might be a better option than plunking a brand new license up there so the club can still have an additional support base alas like the Bears & Lions have achieved. The team would probably play all their matches in Brisbane as well but would need to represent the Northern Brisbane and Sunshine Coast region with scope to have their training base and take 1-2 matches up on the coast.

Again though, GC2015 is probably the best person to talk QLD expansion though but I probably can't see NQ or Brisbane 2 coming in until the 22nd team at earliest especially if WA3 and Canberra are the hot favourites for the next two spots.

I don't think Brisbane2 is a legitimate option that's being considered right now. I was more so commenting on my belief that what's best for footy in Queensland is to eventually get to a point where we have AFL games being played in the Brisbane market every week, just like every other major capital city in Australia currently has. Population growth shows Queensland is only going to become more appealing as we go forward and it would also reduce the travel factor for the QLD teams to give them a better chance of being competitive long-term. You need competitive teams within a market to grow the game e.g. look at the growth in attendance/memberships in Brisbane since the Lions have been legitimate flag contenders over the last 5-6 years. Plus, we can't just solely rely on the Lions forever - they will eventually drop off. Having a second team to cover that drop off period should minimise the risk of what we saw between 2010-2018.

At this point I doubt the 20th team will be based in Brisbane, but that will really come down to when they make a decision on it. The AFL doesn't seem overly keen to start two new teams at the same time from what I can see. Perhaps they learned their lesson from the GC-GWS experience. So the next bout of expansion might occur around 2032ish? By then the Olympic infrastructure will be built and there should be a brand new stadium in Brisbane. So perhaps the Queensland government will be more motivated to have new facilities used and weekly AFL games taking place at the new stadium.

I also doubt we'll get to a point where a Melbourne-based team are legitimately considering relocation in the next 10-15 years. I can't see any of them allowing another Fitzroy situation to occur. So if the options for a 20th franchise are Canberra, Darwin & Brisbane2 and they would enter the league around 2032 then I think Brisbane would be a good chance to win that race. Perth3 could throw a spanner in the works, though.

 

[RedV3x]

That's not really the next step. Unless you're saying they took a backwards step at some point and you think they should step forwards to where they were again.

Yes, the AFL stopped. so it has gone backwards IMO.

The AFL want them to be self sufficient.

The AFL want all teams to be self-sufficient.

Far too reliant on the AFL right now.

They're operating well within the original parameters.

If it's such a small risk then why isn't it happening?

That my friend. you have to ask the AFL because pre-season games hold absolutely no risk
and a cost that is integral to general operations.

 

[2 eazy]

What making it difficult that biggest regions in terms of population that aren't capital cities are all in Queensland or NSW. Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong. Outside of Geelong Victoria WA and SA large regional towns.