Grockadoc
Brownlow Medallist
- Jul 25, 2008
- 25,790
- 49,572
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Fighting Furies, Man Utd, Cavaliers
V
2ND QUALIFYING FINAL
Brisbane v Richmond
02/10/2020
GABBA 7:50 pm.
Season 2020 has been one of the most trying, testing and unique seasons in VFL/AFL history. The impact Coronavirus has had on the league cannot be understated. Shortened quarters, interstate hubs, a shortened season, an extended break, finals being played in October. This season has been a whirlwind of the unconventional. However, we have navigated through the waters and now find ourselves heading into the 2020 finals campaign. The Lions finished 2nd at the end of the Home and Away season, 11.6% off the Power who claimed the minor premiership. The Tigers however, finished in 3rd, 6 points off the Lions but with a higher percentage.
Brisbane lost 3 games this season, those being against the Hawks in Rd 1, Geelong in Rd 6 and the Tigers in Rd 10. Heading in to the Qualifying Final, it will be 2 days shy of 2 months since they last lost.
The Tigers suffered 4 losses and a draw in 2020, fighting to a draw against the Pies in Rd. 2 with the season resumption, back to back losses in Rd. 3 and 4 to the Hawks and Saints respectively, a 12 point loss to the Giants in Rd. 8 with their last loss coming in Rd 11 to the eventual minor Premiers, Port Adelaide.
Brisbane are one of the youngest lists in the competition, coming in 4th, behind Fremantle, Gold Coast and Sydney as the most youthful sides in the competition. The fact that this is Brisbane's second consecutive 2nd place finish on the ladder, and 2nd consecutive finish of being percentage of minor premiers speaks to the quality and upside of the Lions younger brigade with players like Cam Rayner, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Alex Witherden, Harris Andrews, Eric Hipwood and Zac Bailey holding the club in good stead for many years to come. There is no doubt that the Lions are well placed for a period of sustained success with the core young group of players that they have coming through, but the young Lions have already suffered a straight sets exit from their previous finals campaigns. In 2020, they will be better placed to handle the pressure given that they have experienced it before. Could 2020 be the year they go all the way?
Purely and simply, the Tigers have been the best team in the competition for the past 4 years. The Tigers will look back on 2018 as the one that got away but made up for it with the redemption that was the 2019 premiership, the 12th in the clubs history. 2020 has seen several new additions to the Tigers best 22, with Jake Aarts providing some grunt up forward with his pressure, goal nous and ability to work up the ground, and Noah Balta has slotted seamlessly into the backline as a replacement for Alex Rance, influencing games far beyond the scope expected of a 20 year old key defender. The Tigers just find ways to bring depth in as required, given that they lost several key players for extended periods this season, with Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia, Toby Nankervis and David Astbury all missing a large portion of season 2020 and yet the Tigers locked in their 4th consecutive top 4 finish. Could this be the year they go back to back and secure dynasty status?
Last Time They Met:
Rd. 10, 2020 at Metricon Stadium
Once again, it was a day of inaccuracy for the Lions who finished with a final score of 4.17.41. The Tigers finished on 12.10.82, but whilst most will see the Lions were inaccurate, and they were, it is a credit to the Tigers defensive structure for the scoreline. The Lions were forced to take shots from the boundary lines, or under pressure. They were not able to have clean looks at goal, something that they have struggled to generate against the Tigers. The one positive for the Lions to come out of this game though is that they managed to generate 21 scoring shots in this game which shows that they generated scoring chances against a formidable backline.
Statistical Rankings:
Key Matchups:
V
Charlie Cameron V Dylan Grimes:
Charlie Cameron has had a torrid time against the Tigers. Since joining the Lions, he has averaged just 7.5 disposals and 1 goal per game against them, far below his career average of 11.5 disposals and 1.5 goals per game. It has been well publicised that Grimes seems to hold the mental edge and, in their last game this year, Cameron hit the scoreboard early in the first quarter and then celebrated with his patented revving the motorcycle celebration, before remaining largely unsighted afterwards. Charlie's troubles against the Tigers has been an issue for the Lions with their reliance on Charlie as their most damaging and effective goal threat. Cameron has kicked 15.6% of the Lions total goals this season, and with Eric Hipwood also struggling against the Tigers historically, Charlie will need to find a way to hit the scoreboard or make Grimes accountable and unable to influence defensive contests as the third man if the Lions are to win.
V
Harris Andrews V Tom Lynch:
Both players are coming back from hamstring issues, with Andrews being a significant one that has seen him miss over a month of football and Lynch missing the Tigers final home and away game against the Crows. Both are expected to be fit for the game and it is expected that Andrews will take Lynch who is the Tigers main forward focal point. Lynch is averaging 5.5 marks and 2 goals a game against the Lions since joining the Tigers and has had an influence in every final he has played (averaging 7.6 marks and 3 goals a game in finals) and looms dangerous, however Harris Andrews has just been selected as the 2020 NAB All Australian Full Back after a terrific year. Andrews averaged roughly 1 goal conceded from his direct opponent per game in 2020, and has the height to combat Lynch in the air, however can be exposed by physically stronger opponents when one out. Andrews is an excellent defender and will have his hands full with Lynch and if he can stop Lynch from taking the big contested marks, could leave the Tigers struggling for some firepower, especially given their poor inside 50 to scores conversion over the past few matches.
V
Lachie Neale V Trent Cotchin
The two sides premier extractors of the ball who set up link plays through the midfield. Lachie Neale is this years Brownlow fancy after a terrific season, and is an accumulator. He has been criticised at times for his ability to gather large disposal numbers but not damaging opposition teams enough with them. He mentioned that he has focused more on getting the ball forwards out of contests and his meters gained stat this year which has helped him become a more damaging player. The Tigers are not a side that likes to tag, and Neale has benefitted from this. Since joining the Lions, he has averaged 38 disposals and nearly a goal a game against the Tigers. With his focus more shifted towards damaging disposals rather than totals, the Tigers need to be wary of allowing Neale as much free reign as they have done in the past. For the Tigers, Trent Cotchin is a similar player to Lachie Neale. A former accumulator who used to get high disposal numbers but was criticised for effectiveness who has since adopted a quality over quantity approach. Cotchin has sacrificed his game for the betterment of his team, now often being the player hunting opposition players for a bone crunching tackle and his manic desire to win the contest and the ball is inspirational to his team. This is the first season that Trent Cotchin has not kicked a goal, but has seen his defensive rebound 50 numbers rise which highlights Cotchin's willingness to help his team out with his defensive transition. This selfless attitude has seen Cotchin becoming more influential around contests despite his lower disposal and goal count. Whichever player can influence in the contest more for his team, Neale offensively, or Cotchin defensively, will go a long way to ensuring victory for their side.
The X Factors:
Dayne Zorko:
Dayne Zorko is arguably Brisbane's craftiest and most damaging player. His ability to not just win his own ball, but deliver inside 50 and to also impact the scoreboard is something the Tigers need to be wary of. With the Tigers happy to let teams win centre clearances as long as they can force secondary stoppages, they cannot afford to let Zorko have time and space through the midfield or on the half forward line because he can torch you. Zorko hasn't had the greatest season in 2020, averaging his second lowest disposal average and lowest goals per game average in his career but is the type of player who could relish playing in the pointy end of the season, especially if his side is gaining ascendency through the midfield which has been a concern for the Tigers against quality sides where they have been smashed in clearances.
Dustin Martin:
Dusty has been an absolute thorn in Brisbane's side throughout most of his career. In the corresponding game last year, Dusty kicked 6 in a Qualifying Final masterclass. Against the Lions, Dusty averages 25 possessions and just under 2 goals a game. The Lions are Dusty's favourite prey, with the Lions being the side he has kicked the most goals against, and in his last 4 games against them he has kicked 14 goals. Dusty is a player who steps his game up in finals, and given his strong performances against the Lions and is one player Chris Fagan must put time into stopping before he has a chance to feast on them again.
Where Each Team Can Win The Game:
The Lions are one of the strongest clearance sides in the league, an area the Tigers rank dead last in. With midfielders such as Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko, if the Lions can continue their dominance in clearance numbers, the Tigers defence has been exposed at times with quick ball movement from centre clearances that doesn't allow them to set up their defensive structures for the intercept. Moving the ball quickly from a clearance and catching out the Tigers defenders will also allow them to get easier shots at goal rather than having the Tigers block the centre corridor and forcing them to take shots from out wide.
The Tigers have also struggled against sides who play a super slow, chipping style game plan, denying them the chance to pressure the ball carrier. If sides can rack up a large number of uncontested marks, working their way up field and lowering their eyes to hit targets, the Tigers game plan is nullified as they cannot legally harass or pressure a player who has taken a mark. However, this requires extreme fitness to be able to sustain the ability to find clear space over 4 quarters but given the shorter quarters, this is more feasible for younger sides than it would in a regular season of 20 minute quarters.
Purely and simply, the Tigers must create a contest around stoppages. The Lions rank 5th in the league for clearances, an area the Tigers are happy to forego for repeat stoppages that allow them to set up their defensive structures. If the Tigers can force these stoppages, rather than allowing the Lions fast transition ball movement out of a clearance, it should allow them to set up their zone and allow their intercept game to be implemented. The Lions also rely on a kicking game, especially from half back, so being able to pressure their players from half back will impact the Lion's ability to work the ball up field or through the corridor like their gameplan wants them to. The Lions have also proven susceptible to sides who can generate repeat inside 50's and their backline has been under pressure, with the Lions conceding on average 4 points per game more than the Tigers defensive outfit.
Final Thoughts:
We could not have 2 vastly different gameplan styles this Qualifying Final. The composed, precise Lions taking on the hectic, manic chaos kings that are the Tigers. There is no doubt that the Tigers will hold a mental edge over the Lions, with the Tigers holding the longest active win streak of any side over another against the Lions at 15, and not having lost at the Gabba since 2004. The Lions will need to overcome their bogey side, much like the Tigers had to do to Geelong in 2017 if they are to take that next step. The Tigers will be looking to make it to their 4th successive prelim, and would favour themselves against a side that has kicked a combined 12.34 against them in their previous 2 encounters. The Lions will need to overcome the reigning premiers, a hoodoo and the yips in the qualifying final that should see a young up and coming side fall to a side hungry to go back to back.
Tip: Richmond by 27 points.
Attachments
Last edited:
