Expansion 3rd Western Australian club

[Tigerlaird]

No 3rd team until Fremantle wins a premiership.

 

[basashi]

By any fair measure a third team is overdue.

TV viewership, seats per 100k residents per week available, simple population, etc etc

A third team in WA would be viable well before a Gold coast, Western Sydney or a Tasmanian team.

 

[neogh]

What parts about Canberra are you not bought in to?

Tell me your doubts and let me allay them .

1) GWS-Canberra deal is in place and there is more chance it's renewed in the future.
2) Not sure if they'd want to, or able to upgrade Manuka Oval, whilst Perth and Adelaide are on the other hand has a massive stadium that can be used more frequently.
3) ACT and surrounding suburbs is where fireworks is still the most interesting thing you can buy, and the people who live in Canberra only really come to attend ANU or work in PS that ain't going to stick around too long unlike other cities, and not sure if they are the people to target. Yes city population is the biggest without a club, but Perth itself is big enough for 3 clubs.
4) Need an additional club with a football heritage on the South-western side of the country rather than another in the east. Ironic those who happen to say that there is too many teams in Melbourne.

If it's a joint venture between the Two Territories it may sound fine but Canberra itself is meh.

 

[RedV3x]

1) GWS-Canberra deal is in place and there is more chance it's renewed in the future.
2) Not sure if they'd want to, or able to upgrade Manuka Oval, whilst Perth and Adelaide are on the other hand has a massive stadium that can be used more frequently.
3) ACT and surrounding suburbs is where fireworks is still the most interesting thing you can buy, and the people who live in Canberra only really come to attend ANU or work in PS that ain't going to stick around too long unlike other cities, and not sure if they are the people to target. Yes city population is the biggest without a club, but Perth itself is big enough for 3 clubs.
4) Need an additional club with a football heritage on the South-western side of the country rather than another in the east. Ironic those who happen to say that there is too many teams in Melbourne.

If it's a joint venture between the Two Territories it may sound fine but Canberra itself is meh.

1) GWS-Canberra deal is in place and there is more chance it'll be replaced in the future as demands change as we've seen widely..
2) You really want to upgrade Manuka Oval, whilst Perth and Adelaide are on the other hand have massive stadiums that will be hard to fill.
3) ACT and surrounding suburbs is where fireworks is still the most interesting thing you can buy so AFL is attractive and the people who live in Canberra are boosting the population which can cater for a new club unlike Perth or Adelaide.
4) Don't have an additional club with a football heritage of sufficient size on the South-western side of the country rather better to boost "new" territory.in the east. Moronic to those who happen to say that Canberra is linked to Melbourne.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Thanks for the chance to address your doubts.

1) GWS-Canberra deal is in place and there is more chance it's renewed in the future.

This isn't really a concern. The current deal ends in 2032. 2033 is a perfect entry date for a 20th team to give Tasmania a few years to settle. There is discontent amongst GWS fans as well who want more games and certainty in Western Sydney.

2) Not sure if they'd want to, or able to upgrade Manuka Oval, whilst Perth and Adelaide are on the other hand has a massive stadium that can be used more frequently.

Manuka is definitely upgradeable. It's already been slowly upgraded over the past 15 years. Cricket ACT is also pushing for the eastern stand upgrade to bring the stadium capacity to the low 20s (similar to Hobart).

I think Canberra and WA3 would actually get pretty similar crowds, but playing in a 21/22k stadium vs 60k stadium would be way more cost efficient. I would assume the break-even crowd needed would be considerably higher at Optus.

Manuka also has other advantages over Optus. Regional stadiums tend to be "clean stadiums", meaning a Canberra team could probably make an extra $1.4m a year in advertising. We'd probably also get in-season stadium naming rights (like GWS previously did). Plus the government grant all national league teams in Canberra get.

So we'd already have a $4-5m a year head start over WA3.

3) ACT and surrounding suburbs is where fireworks is still the most interesting thing you can buy, and the people who live in Canberra only really come to attend ANU or work in PS that ain't going to stick around too long unlike other cities, and not sure if they are the people to target.

If you're saying Canberra is boring, I disagree. It's a great city for folks in their 20s and 30s. A very active city. I'm not from Canberra, but I absolutely freaking love Canberra.

And it appears I'm not the only one.

Canberra is actually keeping more and more people, hence why the ACT has been the fastest growing state/territory for the past decade, and is expected to be for the next, too. The latest trend is actually that Canberra can't keep it's older people, with many choosing to leave Canberra to retire.

But our younger people are staying. We're proportionally over-represented with 20-somethings and 30-somethings. And as a result, we're also in the midst of a baby boom (which is a great demographic for a new team).

I would actually expect Canberra to have a Geelong feel, with a few country boys having farms outside. Canberra is also an easy drive from the Riverina, so it would be bringing a team closer for those in Canberra and southern NSW (which had 39 AFL players at the start of the season). Right now all of these Riverina boys have to go eight hours away to a big city, whereas a smaller city three hours away is a perfect fit.

We're also closer to the rest of Australia. It'd be much easier to convince a future Harley Reid to move a 1h10 flight from Melbourne (and the same timezone as their family) compared to a 3hr30 flight away.

Yes city population is the biggest without a club, but Perth itself is big enough for 3 clubs.

By the time Team 20 comes in, Greater Canberra will have ~650k. The Capital Region will have ~840k. We’re also right next door to the unrepresented footy hotbed of the Riverina Murray, which brings the total territory closer to 1.2m.

Yes, Greater Perth has a lot of people, too. They’ll have 2.6m by that time. But it’s not like that will get evenly divvied up. Fanbase wise, Freo is roughly half the size of West Coast. WA3 will probably be half the size of Freo. So, they’ll be fighting for maybe 15% of Perth (about 390k by that point).

If Perth had three teams from the start, they'd all be decent-sized, but a new WA3 team and a Canberra team would probably end up similar sized. But Canberra at least adds something to the league.

Canberra adds new fans and grows the potential player pool. WA3 just shuffles pre-existing fans.

4) Need an additional club with a football heritage on the South-western side of the country rather than another in the east. Ironic those who happen to say that there is too many teams in Melbourne.

If you're referring to the Barassi Line, we're not really on the north-eastern side of the line; we're on the line itself.

I take some offence to saying we don't have footy heritage. We're not a typical northern state city; we are an extension of the Riverina, plus consistent migration from the southern states. We were first founded by Victorians as they were the first public servants, and they brought footy with them.

Canberra was actually the very first non-Victorian side to apply for a VFL team (back in 1981), and we've been trying ever since. In terms of footy rich, Canberra gave one of the most famous marks of all time (Jesaulenko, you beauty!) and the founder of footy was born where Canberra became. Footy literally owes its existence to the Canberra Region.

Not to mention our crowds. We've had larger crowds than Hobart for the past six seasons. Larger than Darwin, larger than Western Sydney. All for a FIFO team.


Any other concerns?

 

[neogh]

Any other concerns?

Would Canberra Lakers work as a team name? Sure I was thinking of Canberra Griffins, but for a 20th team I want a modern, global name that reflects the place identity.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Would Canberra Lakers work as a team name? Sure I was thinking of Canberra Griffins, but for a 20th team I want a modern, global name that reflects the place identity.

Not my first choice, but if it got us in, I'd take the Canberra Lakers every day of the week.

 

[kranger]

Manuka is definitely upgradeable. It's already been slowly upgraded over the past 15 years. Cricket ACT is also pushing for the eastern stand upgrade to bring the stadium capacity to the low 20s (similar to Hobart).

I think Canberra and WA3 would actually get pretty similar crowds, but playing in a 21/22k stadium vs 60k stadium would be way more cost efficient. I would assume the break-even crowd needed would be considerably higher at Optus.

This is not to discredit what Pear is saying about Canberra. More just an interest fact.

Optus Stadium can have the top (fifth) level closed off for events. It drops capacity to 38,000. It saves a lot of costs as the first and third levels of seats (not corporate seats) both use the same first level toilets and catering stalls.

It’s what they do for the WAFL grand final which doesn’t tend to get a crowd over 30,000 anymore.

It saves on staffing of catering kiosks, seat finding, cleaning, and power costs from lights and escalators etc.

 

[Canberra Pear]

This is not to discredit what Pear is saying about Canberra. More just an interest fact.

Optus Stadium can have the top (fifth) level closed off for events. It drops capacity to 38,000. It saves a lot of costs as the first and third levels of seats (not corporate seats) both use the same first level toilets and catering stalls.

It’s what they do for the WAFL grand final which doesn’t tend to get a crowd over 30,000 anymore.

It saves on staffing of catering kiosks, seat finding, cleaning, and power costs from lights and escalators etc.

Thanks for the clarification Kranger.

I read an article about the WAFL grand final saying they needed roughly 20k to break even, so that makes sense with the top closed off.

 

[RedV3x]

It’s what they do for the WAFL grand final which doesn’t tend to get a crowd over 30,000 anymore.

But you don't make any money. The WAFL GF has gone back to WAFL grounds........to make money.

It saves on staffing of catering kiosks, seat finding, cleaning, and power costs from lights and escalators etc.

But it doesn't save on transport costs - trains, buses, ground staff etc.

 

[kranger]

But you don't make any money. The WAFL GF has gone back to WAFL grounds........to make money.

And yet they picked Optus again this year, so something must be attracting them to use it for the WAFL GF.

But it doesn't save on transport costs - trains, buses, ground staff etc.

Closing the top tier doesn’t help for the transportation costs, true.

But putting on only enough buses and trains to cater for a 30,000 crowd instead of a 60,000 crowd would save on costs. Which is something they do and is just sensible event planning.

And the cost to run the Transperth services for events at Optus gets added onto spectator tickets whether they use it or not. Which means no paying to get onto the PT when going to and from the stadium, and people who drive help to cover the cost.

Edit: the positive for Optus is that it already has the built infrastructure to be able to handle such capacity and more. Something most of the suburban crowds wouldn’t be able to do.

 

[Rob]

This is not to discredit what Pear is saying about Canberra. More just an interest fact.

Optus Stadium can have the top (fifth) level closed off for events. It drops capacity to 38,000. It saves a lot of costs as the first and third levels of seats (not corporate seats) both use the same first level toilets and catering stalls.

It’s what they do for the WAFL grand final which doesn’t tend to get a crowd over 30,000 anymore.

It saves on staffing of catering kiosks, seat finding, cleaning, and power costs from lights and escalators etc.

You are right, but I can assure you Optus Stadium even in that configuration would not be cheap. You only have to see the sheer number of staff employed to do the most menial of tasks like shutting down roads in East Perth over a kilometre away, or holding a sign pointing to a bus just below a permanent sign pointing to the same bus.
Those costs will still exist in the smaller configuration. It's simply a hideously expensive ground to operate the way it's being run, and that's covered up by the insane revenue generated by both AFL clubs. Something a new team is absolutely no guarantee of coming close to replicating.

 

[RedV3x]

And yet they picked Optus again this year, so something must be attracting them to use it for the WAFL GF.

Prestige ?

putting on only enough buses and trains to cater for a 30,000 crowd instead of a 60,000 crowd would save on costs.

Which they don't do. Buses and trains simply run with less buses.

And the cost to run the Transperth services for events at Optus gets added onto spectator tickets whether they use it or not. Which means

An added cost which suburban grounds don't have.

no paying to get onto the PT when going to and from the stadium, and people who drive help to cover the cost.

The positive for Optus is that it already has the built infrastructure to be able to handle such capacity and more. Something most of the suburban crowds wouldn’t be able to do.

Which is a negative when the capacity is not needed.

 

[stochastic]

Any option to play a few WA3 games at a local ground in WA?

Would definitely give them a unique aspect to draw fans. They would have 2 home derbies and probably 2-3 home games against big Vic clubs at Optus which would easily breakeven.

The prospect of having 11 more WA home games for TV broadcasting would be an incredibly attractive prospect for the AFL.

I think Canberra and WA are the runaway leaders and they have their own unique strengths and challenges that they will face. I think every other prospect is unfeasible. Happy with either option, Just not neither!!!

 

[Coolangatta]

Any option to play a few WA3 games at a local ground in WA?

Would definitely give them a unique aspect to draw fans. They would have 2 home derbies and probably 2-3 home games against big Vic clubs at Optus which would easily breakeven.

The prospect of having 11 more WA home games for TV broadcasting would be an incredibly attractive prospect for the AFL.

I think Canberra and WA are the runaway leaders and they have their own unique strengths and challenges that they will face. I think every other prospect is unfeasible. Happy with either option, Just not neither!!!

Well said, but I’d still be disappointed if Canberra isn’t team 20.

Expansion is only going to come around every 15 years or so, and when it does, there’s only two spots available.

If Canberra doesn’t get a team next decade, when will they and why shouldn’t they?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well said, but I’d still be disappointed if Canberra isn’t team 20.

Expansion is only going to come around every 15 years or so, and when it does, there’s only two spots available.

If Canberra doesn’t get a team next decade, when will they and why shouldn’t they?

I think the issue is that expansions happen, more or less, in twos. And the fact that there are multiple options for Team 20 would've helped Tasmania's bid.

Now Team 21 will be trickier. With no obvious Team 22, it might be longer between expansion rounds.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Any option to play a few WA3 games at a local ground in WA?

Would definitely give them a unique aspect to draw fans. They would have 2 home derbies and probably 2-3 home games against big Vic clubs at Optus which would easily breakeven.

The prospect of having 11 more WA home games for TV broadcasting would be an incredibly attractive prospect for the AFL.

I think Canberra and WA are the runaway leaders and they have their own unique strengths and challenges that they will face. I think every other prospect is unfeasible. Happy with either option, Just not neither!!!

How far away from Perth CBD are you talking? Joondalup? Mandurah? Those would be the only two realistic options. Joondalup has a good ground, Mandurah can be upgraded. Train access available to both, too.

 

[kranger]

I would love to see Leederville Oval the hub for footy.

AFL pre-season games in late Summer.

Two WAFL clubs (league, reserves, colts and women’s, futures, rogers) playing their in winter. With training bases elsewhere.

The AFLW teams playing their in Spring.

State representative games.

It is so central, on the Joondalup/Mandurah Line, next to the north/south freeway, in a nice town centre, with a Rec centre next door and Pool up the road.

Do up the facilities a bit. Move the WAFC into the Department of Sport building, and relocate the Department elsewhere.

Edit: and then use Leederville Oval for those couple of WA3 AFL games that aren’t at Optus Stadium.

 

[Bjo187]

Yeah a few games at Joondalup 5, a few at the waca 2 and a few at Optus 4. The team needs to be based out of Joondalup though I think.

 

[neogh]

Now Team 21 will be trickier. With no obvious Team 22, it might be longer between expansion rounds.

Is a third SA side not viable in like the Southern Adelaide/Hills region?

 

[RedV3x]

How far away from Perth CBD are you talking? Joondalup? Mandurah? Those would be the only two realistic options. Joondalup has a good ground, Mandurah can be upgraded. Train access available to both, too.

Joondalup and Mandurah have good grounds only. Nobody is going to pay for them to be upgraded with stadiums.
Yes, they have train access, but they reneged on building the station near the ground w.r.t. Joondalup.
Those would not be realistic options.
Everybody keeps avoiding the east and south east.
Armadale or Midland need some recognition.
They are both on the railway line and actually have football history.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Is a third SA side not viable in like the Southern Adelaide/Hills region?

Currently? I wouldn't say so.

But around 2045/50 when Team 21 could come in? Who knows. Depends how quickly Adelaide can grow.

Adelaide is projected to be as big as Perth is now, but it'll still be slightly smaller as a proportion of the Australian population.

Personally, if we're waiting until then, Auckland would have my vote for Team 22 (after Canberra and WA3).

 

[Coolangatta]

I think the issue is that expansions happen, more or less, in twos. And the fact that there are multiple options for Team 20 would've helped Tasmania's bid.

Now Team 21 will be trickier. With no obvious Team 22, it might be longer between expansion rounds.

Depends on who team 20 is.

So the way I see it, WA3 and SA3 are only possibilities as a "safe" option to even up the number of teams, so I cannot see either one of those being team 21.

If Canberra is team 20, I can see maybe Sunshine Coast being team 21, by around 2050s. If that's what happens, I think if there's no obvious candidate for team 22, then WA3 would fit perfectly. Could be a south-west team that plays big games at Optus.

If WA3 gets team 20, then I'm not sure who team 21 would. be. Surely Canberra, but if they don't get up for team 20, I'd be even more cynical than I already am. AFL shouldn't neglect Canberra but there's no promise they'll do the right thing.

In any case, if WA3 is team 20, teams 21 and 22 could be Canberra and Sunshine Coast, or SA3 if they want a safe option to go with Canberra. It's hard to say how it'll play out.

 

[Coolangatta]

Currently? I wouldn't say so.

But around 2045/50 when Team 21 could come in? Who knows. Depends how quickly Adelaide can grow.

Adelaide is projected to be as big as Perth is now, but it'll still be slightly smaller as a proportion of the Australian population.

Personally, if we're waiting until then, Auckland would have my vote for Team 22 (after Canberra and WA3).

Forgot about NZ.

I'd actually have them as team 21 ahead of WA3 (as WA3 would only be to even up the number of teams if there's no obvious candidate for team 22).

 

[Canberra Pear]

Forgot about NZ.

I'd actually have them as team 21 ahead of WA3 (as WA3 would only be to even up the number of teams if there's no obvious candidate for team 22).

Yeah, I'd probably agree. Though the time difference between Team 21 and Team 22 will be negligible.

It's hard to say for sure where population trends actually end up, and where the AFL will put in the ground work, but I'd put the Sunshine Coast and even possibly Newcastle ahead of a third Adelaide side. But that'd be decades down the track.