Play Nice 45th President of the United States: Donald Trump - Part 20: The Decline of Donald

[ShanDog]

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Joe Biden, 46th President Thread is over there ->

< - Trump 19 is back there.

 

[Saint]

Most of the polling seems to be fairly close still but yeah the odds have been shifting to old mate Donny.

I think the betting odds might be a better guide than the polls, people bet with their head not their heart generally speaking

Not when it comes to Trump (pro and anti).

The fluctuations on election day have been an emotional roller coaster the last couple of elections.

 

[the_interloper]

Not when it comes to Trump (pro and anti).

The fluctuations on election day have been an emotional roller coaster the last couple of elections.

Anything to base this on? I don't bet on politics but I do on MMA and other sports, I'll often back fighters i don't like and barrack for the other guy.

 

[Saint]

Anything to base this on? I don't bet on politics but I do on MMA and other sports, I'll often back fighters i don't like and barrack for the other guy.

The fluctuations on election day defied logic.

When postal votes were counted first, and showed a swing a certain way, the market moved toward it, even though the pollsters were explaining that it wasn't a good sample (postal votes almost always lean a certain way and since they're increasing in number it's hard to guess which way and why).

 

[TheSunGod]

Most of the polling seems to be fairly close still but yeah the odds have been shifting to old mate Donny.

I think the betting odds might be a better guide than the polls, people bet with their head not their heart generally speaking

Like buying shares in Trump Media / Truth Social or WTF it’s called?

 

[Satan]

Like buying shares in Trump Media / Truth Social or WTF it’s called?

will elon by djt media?

 

[Dixie Flatline]

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Will be appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast on the 25th.

Rogan backflipping on his public stance from must two years ago, when Rogan told a fellow podcaster that he was not a Trump supporter and declined to take up opportunities in the past to have Trump on his podcast.

 

[Spearman]

That's some top-notch, if not completely without basis, scare-mongering/ opinion.

Trump's "negotiation" skill appears to only be appeasement and empty threats. He ended the war in Afghanistan by completely giving in to the Taliban who now rule the country again.

Iran are closer to having a nuclear weapon because he ended the treaty with them and assassinated a general in Iraq, which also turned Iraq away from the US and towards Iran.

And his only action in Ukraine was to withhold military aid for personal political gain.

There's zero evidence Trump was a good negotiator on foreign policy.

I seem to remember that one of his former employees, a manager or something, said that Trump didn't usually make deals himself. He sent his managers like her out to do it or get fired, or some such thing.

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Will be appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast on the 25th.

I hope Joe is high as a kite for this one.

 

[Cyber_punk]

Rogan backflipping on his public stance from must two years ago, when Rogan told a fellow podcaster that he was not a Trump supporter and declined to take up opportunities in the past to have Trump on his podcast.

Audience capture is a very powerful thing.

Matt Walsh, Ben Shapiro, all denounced him before changing their tune.

 

[JackOutback]

The odds respond to the market.

I would guess there are stacks of people convinced Trump is the saviour and willing to put money on it.

People who think Harris is going to win, probably don't believe with the same type of fervour and not willing to put their hard-earned on the line for it.

Harris has lost the little lead she had in Pennsylvania, Trump pulling away in Georgia.

How does the saying go? "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public".

At this point it does seem more likely Trump will win than Harris, based on polling.

The odds do respond to the market and there is talk that some of Trump's cashed-up supporters are dropping large sums, which brings his odds in, which makes the public think a Trump win is inevitable... it does have the potential to depress turnout from those on the fence about voting. Likewise, Trump has allegedly funded some of the polls showing his lead improving, another way to create a narrative that Harris has lost so what's the point in voting.

The Fivethirtyeight simulation has Trump winning 51 times out of 100, Harris 48 times out of 100, but according to it 'a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate'. This last two weeks needs to be on point for Harris and people need to turn out.

I'm not convinced controversies like insulting soldiers and praising Hitler is going to move the needle, he's made these comments before and people still vote for him. They need to focus on his weirdness, mental decline and unsuitability for office, as well as Harris' vision and competence.

 

[Saint]

The odds do respond to the market and there is talk that some of Trump's cashed-up supporters are dropping large sums, which brings his odds in, which makes the public think a Trump win is inevitable... it does have the potential to depress turnout from those on the fence about voting. Likewise, Trump has allegedly funded some of the polls showing his lead improving, another way to create a narrative that Harris has lost so what's the point in voting.

The Fivethirtyeight simulation has Trump winning 51 times out of 100, Harris 48 times out of 100, but according to it 'a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate'. This last two weeks needs to be on point for Harris and people need to turn out.

I'm not convinced controversies like insulting soldiers and praising Hitler is going to move the needle, he's made these comments before and people still vote for him. They need to focus on his weirdness, mental decline and unsuitability for office, as well as Harris' vision and competence.

I think those who know he's weird and unsuitable for office already know that as well.

Those 538 analyses are built off current polling. But the trajectory of the polling is Harris's problem. She's losing ground in all the battlegrounds. Whatever's happening, it's bad for her.

She needs to change the trajectory of polling by offering something positive. That's the distinction she needs to make. Everyone knows Trump, Harris needs to show people why they should vote for her, not just against Trump.

 

[QuietB]

“Personal Attacks will be kept to a minimum” everyone knows personal attacks are an admission you’ve lost the argument, thanks for risking a ban to concede you lost.

You are supporting the guy who suggested people should drink bleach. That is not a personal attack - that is a fact.

 

[QuietB]

I think those who know he's weird and unsuitable for office already know that as well.

Those 538 analyses are built off current polling. But the trajectory of the polling is Harris's problem. She's losing ground in all the battlegrounds. Whatever's happening, it's bad for her.

She needs to change the trajectory of polling by offering something positive. That's the distinction she needs to make. Everyone knows Trump, Harris needs to show people why they should vote for her, not just against Trump.

No one is interested in "positive". It doesn't work.

Sooking and whining and endless negativity is dominating world politics.

USA is the blueprint. Right now their economy is growing, inflation is down, interest rates are falling, share market is at all time highs, Covid is no longer a major issue, massive sums have been invested in kick starting USA manufacturing again and in infrastructure, and yet all of that is completely dismissed in the face of a xenophobic campaign about immigration.

 

[NSWCROW]

Hopefully he gets baked on Rogan

campaigner might lighten up a bit

 

[bourbons]

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Will be appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast on the 25th.

lol

Joe Rogan says he declined having Donald Trump on podcast: 'I don't want to help him'

The host of "The Joe Rogan Experience" said he isn't a supporter of former President Donald Trump "in any way, shape or form."

www.usatoday.com

"So many people felt like they could abandon their own ethics and morals and principles just to attack him and anybody who supports him," he said.

Is there a single principled/consistent person among these people

 

[Cyber_punk]

I think those who know he's weird and unsuitable for office already know that as well.

Those 538 analyses are built off current polling. But the trajectory of the polling is Harris's problem. She's losing ground in all the battlegrounds. Whatever's happening, it's bad for her.

She needs to change the trajectory of polling by offering something positive. That's the distinction she needs to make. Everyone knows Trump, Harris needs to show people why they should vote for her, not just against Trump.

The slide started after she embraced the Cheneys and Bush era republicans. I mean is anyone really voting for her because Dick Cheney says so? Are those types as a substantial voting block even really a thing anymore? All that did was turn off the progressives and young people away from her.

 

[JackOutback]

I think those who know he's weird and unsuitable for office already know that as well.

Those 538 analyses are built off current polling. But the trajectory of the polling is Harris's problem. She's losing ground in all the battlegrounds. Whatever's happening, it's bad for her.

She needs to change the trajectory of polling by offering something positive. That's the distinction she needs to make. Everyone knows Trump, Harris needs to show people why they should vote for her, not just against Trump.

The politically engaged do, those that don't watch the news or follow politics is probably larger than we dare to think and getting them to pay attention and vote is a challenge.

I think it's a balance of showing recent footage that highlights his unsuitability for office with the need for a positive message. I liked Dave Bautista's video where he highlighted all the great things about America and how Trump was constantly talking America down. That should be the focus, that Trump thinks America is shit, that Harris actually thinks there's lots to love about where it's at and where it can go.

 

[Saint]

No one is interested in "positive". It doesn't work.

Sooking and whining and endless negativity is dominating world politics.

USA is the blueprint. Right now their economy is growing, inflation is down, interest rates are falling, share market is at all time highs, Covid is no longer a major issue, massive sums have been invested in kick starting USA manufacturing again and in infrastructure, and yet all of that is completely dismissed in the face of a xenophobic campaign about immigration.

I think that falls on deaf ears because the way the economy has changed so that the rich are the main beneficiaries of all of that and the middle and lower classes are not feeling the benefits.

That's where the change has to happen. Also, this is across world politics.

 

[Not Important]

there’s nothing ‘christian’ about these flogs. nothing.

 

[Not Important]

ridicule works for me. go meryl.

 

[Gough]

there’s nothing ‘christian’ about these flogs. nothing.

A lot of them need to have a serious look at the 1st commandment.

 

[Not Important]

A lot of them need to have a serious look at the 1st commandment.

and understand j.c's message of justice, love, kindness, and walking humbly. and as you have done to the least of these, you have done also unto me. the polar opposite of acquisitiveness and greed.

not bad for an agnostic.

 

[awaremind]

The slide started after she embraced the Cheneys and Bush era republicans. I mean is anyone really voting for her because Dick Cheney says so? Are those types as a substantial voting block even really a thing anymore? All that did was turn off the progressives and young people away from her.

Dick Cheney was a genocidal oligarch, if he supports your candidate it’s a huge red flag.

 

[the_interloper]

Like buying shares in Trump Media / Truth Social or WTF it’s called?

I don’t think so

 

[blackshadow]

Trump files extraordinary complaint claiming election meddling by UK Labour party

Allegation references LinkedIn post saying 100 party staffers were headed to US to campaign for Harris

www.theguardian.com

This type of thing has been going on for all sides of politics between Australia/UK/USA for decades. I know of Australian LNP coalition staffers who have campaigned for the GOP. Lynton Crosby has run campaigns for the Conservatives in Great Britain.
I'm sure there are plenty of examples of ALP/Labour/Democrat staffers working on campaigns for similarly aligned parties in other countries.