Past #6: Jason Horne-Francis - NM have been informed by JHF's management that he will seek a trade to SA [contracted for 2023]

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Chewy316 said:
You say that Port have been in his ear for months but only now have North realised the need to make a plan B now that JHF has put in a trade request. Based on that logic one could infer that North's list management team would have been aware of the discussions with Port and JHF for many months and as such would have had time to at least map out some scenarios theoretically. To suggest otherwise would imply incompetence.
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How exactly should North's list management team be held responsible for keeping across secret discussions between Port and JHF?
Did they forget to enable phone taps? Maybe they should've deployed a few double agents at Alberton?
 

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Makeshift Park said:
How exactly should North's list management team be held responsible for keeping across secret discussions between Port and JHF?
Did they forget to enable phone taps? Maybe they should've deployed a few double agents at Alberton?
Click to expand...

LOL, yep, another reach from a Port supporter pretending to be balanced.

It's about the 28th variation of: "How about we remove the emotion from the discussion so I can tell you why you should be accepting unders for a contracted player that we are trying to poach from you".

One simple fact seems to keep escaping them all - they're the ones who initiated and are driving a trade attempt. There is no compulsion for us to meet them halfway.

We simply don't care if Port walks away, indeed we would have preferred that they never made the approach in the first place.
 
Chewy316 said:
The irrational ones would be - though that would be as equally egregious as asking for pick 8 and Butters.

Butters would be in the top 3 players talent wise at Port. I'm not sure they'd even trade Butters for JHF straight up let alone including pick 8.

For argument's sake - let's hypothetically say the offer from North was Butters and 8 for JHF. I can clearly see the incentive for North - gets an elite talent yet to enter the prime of his career who has already had multiple game winning moments, in addition to a reasonably high first round pick to accelerate a rebuild. Not to mention it gets them off JHF who for all intents and purposes became a distraction by the end of this past season more than anything.

Where is the incentive for Port in such a trade? Such a trade doesn't plug any hole at Port - it would simply be one forward/midfielder hybrid for another, combined with the loss of a top asset being a top 10 pick. It just doesn't make sense from their perspective.

Easy to say "ok well we will hold onto him and can revisit this in 12 months time if necessary." You've got a player who doesn't want to be there, and dare I say it is not as if any one would expect North's fortunes to turn around so suddenly that JHF would pivot and choose to stay at North in 12 months time. At that point he's out of contract. Given his ties to Port he'd most likely pick them over the Crows in 12 months, and then we're playing this same carousel of sorts.

If you take the emotion out of it on both sides it is clear at least from my perspective that there is a trade to be had that will satisfy both sides - one that will allow both clubs to come out looking like winners with their various supporter bases. If I were to guess, it'll be closer to pick 8, a future 1st and a steak knives type pick or pick swap than it would be to two 1st round picks and a top talent from Port.

Let's get the popcorn and see how it plays out. I spoke to someone who is very well connected to the Port side of things and they were adamant the deal was going to get done based on discussions Port and North have had over the last few days. Guess we will find out soon!
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zzzzzz
 
Makeshift Park said:
How exactly should North's list management team be held responsible for keeping across secret discussions between Port and JHF?
Did they forget to enable phone taps? Maybe they should've deployed a few double agents at Alberton?
Click to expand...
And to think we thought that JHF visited his Mum on Mothers Day in SA , now we know that was just a cover :cool:
 
My JHF trade thesis based on them looking at pick 1 points value.

Pick 1 is worth 3,000 points

Pick 8 is worth 1,551 points
Pick 10 is worth 1,395 points (Pick 9 is worth 1,469)

So talking about draft points alone, 1 (3000) is worth somewhere between pick 8+9 and pick 8+10. Then there are other complicating factors.
a) Is the player contracted? Yes
b) Is he considered better than your average pick 1 player? Yes (1st year players aren't offered 800kx4 extensions, not even by GWS)

How much does that increase value is debatable, the fact he is contracted means the club can simply say no, why would a club consider a deal for a player that was at market value to the base pick? Does the club think he isn't worth it? The money suggests no. One year really isn't enough time to allow for potential devaluation, especially in a side that went back to back spoons and sacked the coach mid year. That isn't the best environment to shine.

What kind of premium would you need to offer for a contracted player vs an uncontracted year? The player would like to go home, it is a factor, but he hasn't indicated he will crack the sads and not come back if a deal can't be made. Club doesn't want to let him go, loss of development time, have made trade and list decisions based on him being around, etc. What kind of premium would you have to offer to make it attractive? 10%? 20%?

Then how do you quantify his value in terms of how he is rated in terms of as a number one pick? What does $800k a year look like for a first year player? Would you say offer that kind of cash to which other pick 1 player after 1 year? Especially someone who is open to returning home so you don't really need to bribe him to return. They haven't chase JUH, not worth it? Matt Rowell? Nope. Sam Walsh before his break-out year? Nope, not even Lukosius who went #2. I could go on, nothing really changes, nobody chased the #1 picks, even when they all ended up at basketcase clubs. There is a genuine belief he is worth going after him. What would you value that conservatively? 10%? 20%?

If you would say 20% on both those factors, that would 1200ish points, somewhere in the vicinity of pick 13 in addition to 8 & 10. If you don't value that player that highly it isn't worth offering $800k and it isn't worth chasing him. You can't go to a contracted player and expect them to go for market value, market value is for uncontracted players.

They have pick 8, but they would have considered 2022 a disaster, have they gone to their fans and said expect even worse next year? Nope, they will expect to play finals next year. If not, they would have sacked Hinkley already. So they don't think their future 1st has the potential value they claim it has, if they think it does, hock it off to some other club that wants to death ride them. They haven't had the currency to get a player like JHF in the past and they still don't have the currency to do so.

Sinn went pick 12 last year, if they could trade their future first to someone else and get a pick 9 or 10 then those two plus Sinn would make a club seriously consider the offer. If there was a strong expectation that port really wouldn't move very much higher, then the future first would be around the mark, if there was the expectation they could be worse next year then you would to take that into consideration.

But if you are talking about what is fair or reasonable from a draft points point of view, clubs do not trade pick 1, don't trade them after one year, you have to do a lot more than just match the base points value. There has to be the enticement to trade.

Realistically, clubs don't really chase pick one players because it is a massive gamble and it doesn't come cheaply.
 
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LuvtheKangas said:
LOL, yep, another reach from a Port supporter pretending to be balanced.

It's about the 28th variation of: "How about we remove the emotion from the discussion so I can tell you why you should be accepting unders for a contracted player that we are trying to poach from you".

One simple fact seems to keep escaping them all - they're the ones who initiated and are driving a trade attempt. There is no compulsion for us to meet them halfway.

We simply don't care if Port walks away, indeed we would have preferred that they never made the approach in the first place.
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Totally.

Also, for comparison, Port's highest paid player this year was Ollie Wines at 800k.

800k is the same amount that Jason has now been offered.

They're offering a second year player the same amount of money as their brownlow medal winner.

So they can spare us the part where they pretend that they won't need extraordinary draft picks and/or a valuable player to make this happen.
 
Tas said:
My JHF trade thesis based on them looking at pick 1 points value.

Pick 1 is worth 3,000 points

Pick 8 is worth 1,551 points
Pick 10 is worth 1,395 points (Pick 9 is worth 1,469)

So talking about draft points alone, 1 (3000) is worth somewhere between pick 8+9 and pick 8+10. Then there are other complicating factors.
a) Is the player contracted? Yes
b) Is he considered better than your average pick 1 player? Yes (1st year players aren't offered 800kx4 extensions, not even by GWS)

How much does that increase value is debatable, the fact he is contracted means the club can simply say no, why would a club consider a deal for a player that was at market value to the base pick? Does the club think he isn't worth it? The money suggests no. One year really isn't enough time to allow for potential devaluation, especially in a side that went back to back spoons and sacked the coach mid year. That isn't the best environment to shine.

What kind of premium would you need to offer for a contracted player vs an uncontracted year? The player would like to go home, it is a factor, but he hasn't indicated he will crack the sads and not come back if a deal can't be made. Club doesn't want to let him go, loss of development time, have made trade and list decisions based on him being around, etc. What kind of premium would you have to offer to make it attractive? 10%? 20%?

Then how do you quantify his value in terms of how he is rated in terms of as a number one pick? What does $800k a year look like for a first year player? Would you say offer that kind of cash to which other pick 1 player after 1 year? Especially someone who is open to returning home so you don't really need to bribe him to return. They haven't chase JUH, not worth it? Matt Rowell? Nope. Sam Walsh before his break-out year? Nope, not even Lukosius who went #2. I could go on, nothing really changes, nobody chased the #1 picks, even when they all ended up at basketcase clubs. There is a genuine belief he is worth going after him. What would you value that conservatively? 10%? 20%?

If you would say 20% on both those factors, that would 1200ish points, somewhere in the vicinity of pick 13 in addition to 8 & 10. If you don't value that player that highly it isn't worth offering $800k and it isn't worth chasing him. You can't go to a contracted player and expect them to go for market value, market value is for uncontracted players.

They have pick 8, but they would have considered 2022 a disaster, have they gone to their fans and said expect even worse next year? Nope, they will expect to play finals next year. If not, they would have sacked Hinkley already. So they don't think their future 1st has the potential value they claim it has, if they think it does, hock it off to some other club that wants to death ride them. They haven't had the currency to get a player like JHF in the past and they still don't have the currency to do so.

Sinn went pick 12 last year, if they could trade their future first to someone else and get a pick 9 or 10 then those two plus Sinn would make a club seriously consider the offer. If there was a strong expectation that port really wouldn't move very much higher, then the future first would be around the mark, if there was the expectation they could be worse next year then you would to take that into consideration.

But if you are talking about what is fair or reasonable from a draft points point of view, clubs do not trade pick 1, don't trade them after one year, you have to do a lot more than just match the base points value. There has to be the enticement to trade.
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Yeah the points system is pretty irrelevant when discussing Pick 1. As SOS said on Trade Radio, it’s purely a bargaining tool to justify trades.
 
DarkPhoenix said:
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QueasyZestyClownanemonefish-size_restricted.gif
 
Tas said:
My JHF trade thesis based on them looking at pick 1 points value.

Pick 1 is worth 3,000 points

Pick 8 is worth 1,551 points
Pick 10 is worth 1,395 points (Pick 9 is worth 1,469)

So talking about draft points alone, 1 (3000) is worth somewhere between pick 8+9 and pick 8+10. Then there are other complicating factors.
a) Is the player contracted? Yes
b) Is he considered better than your average pick 1 player? Yes (1st year players aren't offered 800kx4 extensions, not even by GWS)

How much does that increase value is debatable, the fact he is contracted means the club can simply say no, why would a club consider a deal for a player that was at market value to the base pick? Does the club think he isn't worth it? The money suggests no. One year really isn't enough time to allow for potential devaluation, especially in a side that went back to back spoons and sacked the coach mid year. That isn't the best environment to shine.

What kind of premium would you need to offer for a contracted player vs an uncontracted year? The player would like to go home, it is a factor, but he hasn't indicated he will crack the sads and not come back if a deal can't be made. Club doesn't want to let him go, loss of development time, have made trade and list decisions based on him being around, etc. What kind of premium would you have to offer to make it attractive? 10%? 20%?

Then how do you quantify his value in terms of how he is rated in terms of as a number one pick? What does $800k a year look like for a first year player? Would you say offer that kind of cash to which other pick 1 player after 1 year? Especially someone who is open to returning home so you don't really need to bribe him to return. They haven't chase JUH, not worth it? Matt Rowell? Nope. Sam Walsh before his break-out year? Nope, not even Lukosius who went #2. I could go on, nothing really changes, nobody chased the #1 picks, even when they all ended up at basketcase clubs. There is a genuine belief he is worth going after him. What would you value that conservatively? 10%? 20%?

If you would say 20% on both those factors, that would 1200ish points, somewhere in the vicinity of pick 13 in addition to 8 & 10. If you don't value that player that highly it isn't worth offering $800k and it isn't worth chasing him. You can't go to a contracted player and expect them to go for market value, market value is for uncontracted players.

They have pick 8, but they would have considered 2022 a disaster, have they gone to their fans and said expect even worse next year? Nope, they will expect to play finals next year. If not, they would have sacked Hinkley already. So they don't think their future 1st has the potential value they claim it has, if they think it does, hock it off to some other club that wants to death ride them. They haven't had the currency to get a player like JHF in the past and they still don't have the currency to do so.

Sinn went pick 12 last year, if they could trade their future first to someone else and get a pick 9 or 10 then those two plus Sinn would make a club seriously consider the offer. If there was a strong expectation that port really wouldn't move very much higher, then the future first would be around the mark, if there was the expectation they could be worse next year then you would to take that into consideration.

But if you are talking about what is fair or reasonable from a draft points point of view, clubs do not trade pick 1, don't trade them after one year, you have to do a lot more than just match the base points value. There has to be the enticement to trade.
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If we're looking at draft points also, 8 technically becomes 9 as far as we're concerned, as Brisbane will move up due to Ashcroft.

It's just not really worth trying to quantify.
 

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DarkPhoenix said:
If we're looking at draft points also, 8 technically becomes 9 as far as we're concerned, as Brisbane will move up due to Ashcroft.

It's just not really worth trying to quantify.
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Yeah, i am looking at it from a points perspective, in terms of general value, it sounds dumb on a logical point of view but they have tried to claim those picks are worth it on points value.
 
DarkPhoenix said:
If we're looking at draft points also, 8 technically becomes 9 as far as we're concerned, as Brisbane will move up due to Ashcroft.

It's just not really worth trying to quantify.
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Which is the case next year also, I believe GC have 2 kids that will get bids in the top 5-10, which means Ports f1 could be mid teens.

If Port make the 8 next year, it’s essentially JHF for 9 & 14, best case…
 
Val Keating said:
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If we don’t get a top 4 pick this year, then forget it. Ashcroft bid means they need to get pick 2, 3 or 4 and send it our way.

Don’t care how it gets done just do it.
Then we can look at pick 8, future 1sts and butters and the rest.

Port is gonna have to give up something special to get this done. Picks won’t do it based on what they have.
 
tazaa said:
If we don’t get a top 4 pick this year, then forget it. Ashcroft bid means they need to get pick 2, 3 or 4 and send it our way.

Don’t care how it gets done just do it.
Then we can look at pick 8, future 1sts and butters and the rest.

Port is gonna have to give up something special to get this done. Picks won’t do it based on what they have.
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This. JHF leaving throws the Cadman selection into doubt. He's definitely not slipping to pick 9.

Ideally that pick 8 turns into a top 5 pick given the uncertainty around the F1.

Wardlaw and Cadman soften the blow of JHF leaving.
 
tazaa said:
If we don’t get a top 4 pick this year, then forget it. Ashcroft bid means they need to get pick 2, 3 or 4 and send it our way.

Don’t care how it gets done just do it.
Then we can look at pick 8, future 1sts and butters and the rest.

Port is gonna have to give up something special to get this done. Picks won’t do it based on what they have.
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Port is dealing with WC, they need to get pick 2 from them + player or future 1st

JHF is an absolute jet, they're doing damn well out of that. We get Cadman and a future first for him is reasonable, far from over the top. But allows us to draft Wardlaw with pick 1.
 
Makeshift Park said:
How exactly should North's list management team be held responsible for keeping across secret discussions between Port and JHF?
Did they forget to enable phone taps? Maybe they should've deployed a few double agents at Alberton?
Click to expand...

Unless you've been hiding under a rock it has been well known that both SA sides have been pissing in (manager) Ben Williams' ear for the better part of 6 months. If North have truly been oblivious to that then yes, they are incompetent.

LuvtheKangas said:
LOL, yep, another reach from a Port supporter pretending to be balanced.

It's about the 28th variation of: "How about we remove the emotion from the discussion so I can tell you why you should be accepting unders for a contracted player that we are trying to poach from you".

One simple fact seems to keep escaping them all - they're the ones who initiated and are driving a trade attempt. There is no compulsion for us to meet them halfway.

We simply don't care if Port walks away, indeed we would have preferred that they never made the approach in the first place.
Click to expand...

Sure, Port and JHF are the ones driving this. But you're in denial if you think North aren't somewhat content that they are going to have a very good offer presented to them to take a malcontent away from them.

The only semi like for like comparison is the Tom Boyd deal for pick 6 and a 30 year old Ryan Griffen. I think when it is all said and done, regardless of the posturing from either side, the final deal will end up looking somewhat similar in value to the Boyd deal. I'm not saying what should or should not happen, I'm simply saying what I suspect will happen.
 
Was Jade Rawlings the one in charge when North cut communications with Port to walk Ben Jacobs to the N DD?
 
Zondor said:
What makes me laugh is various bananas in this thread making out like “they’ll” be doing the deal for their respective clubs. And to think nobody has mentioned pick 69 as yet. Please. :stern look
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Pick 69 lol
Dinner for 2


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Psicosis said:
Yeah the points system is pretty irrelevant when discussing Pick 1. As SOS said on Trade Radio, it’s purely a bargaining tool to justify trades.
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Yet he has no trouble using it to justify previous deals he has done. Example: Martin deal


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Chewy316 said:
Unless you've been hiding under a rock it has been well known that both SA sides have been pissing in (manager) Ben Williams' ear for the better part of 6 months. If North have truly been oblivious to that then yes, they are incompetent.



Sure, Port and JHF are the ones driving this. But you're in denial if you think North aren't somewhat content that they are going to have a very good offer presented to them to take a malcontent away from them.

The only semi like for like comparison is the Tom Boyd deal for pick 6 and a 30 year old Ryan Griffen. I think when it is all said and done, regardless of the posturing from either side, the final deal will end up looking somewhat similar in value to the Boyd deal. I'm not saying what should or should not happen, I'm simply saying what I suspect will happen.
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Cool. We'll take Ollie Wines, no problems. What is he, 28ish?
 
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