80k + crowds

[dave_27]

The surprisingly low figue for Essendon indicates the central importance of form and ladder position to any club's ability to host blockbusting crowds.

No one in his right mind supposes that Essendon are anything but a huge draw comparable to Collingwood all things being equal yet a period of one finals appearance in 6 years sees them unable to host 70+ attendances with any regularity apart from the holiday game on ANZAC despite the across the board growth in attendances.

Of course they CAN but they HAVE'NT.

Sorry but the home game figure isnt a good measure at all.

Round 22 2009, Hawthorn were outnumbered by Essendon fans despite it being Hawthorns Home game. Would 40k+ Hawks fans turn up to a Essendon home game if the positions were reversed? No. Why should Hawthorn be credited with drawing 70k+ because it was there home game when it was the away fans who made up the majority of the attendance?

Had Essendon been the home team this year against Carlton and Richmond, would not 70k+ still turned up?? I think so and that would place Essendon 2nd on that list. Its trivial.

Sorry but alot of time its down to circumstance of when your home game is as you would know. Most 70k+ crowds takes 2 sets of fans turning up. Big crowd turns up for early season Big 4 clash no matter who's home game it is.

For example having late season home game dead rubbers against Carlton last year and Richmond in 2009 where no away fans turned up in big numbers when the corresponding fixtures early in those seasons drew 70k+.

 

[dave10]

The surprisingly low figue for Essendon indicates the central importance of form and ladder position to any club's ability to host blockbusting crowds.

No one in his right mind supposes that Essendon are anything but a huge draw comparable to Collingwood all things being equal yet a period of one finals appearance in 6 years sees them unable to host 70+ attendances with any regularity apart from the holiday game on ANZAC despite the across the board growth in attendances.

Of course they CAN but they HAVE'NT.

The single biggest factor impacting Essendon is that Essendon have played many matches at Ethihad over the past 10 years that would have drawn over 70,000 people. I suggest there have been at least 5 games V Geelong (3 in the last 4 years alone) that were blockbuster lockouts. We have also had 2-3 matches V Hawthorn (one in 2000 comes to mind that would have pushed 80,000) and other matches. I would say you could easily add another 8-10 games since 2000 that would have drawn 70,000+ and thus another explaination why Essendons number is lower than you would expect. If Essendon regains form, our match V Geelong on 2nd July is another match that as a home game for Essendon could be pushing 80,000. So therefore, Essendon could have been alongside Collingwood if it still played at the G.

 

[gaelictiogar]

The single biggest factor impacting Essendon is that Essendon have played many matches at Ethihad over the past 10 years that would have drawn over 70,000 people. I suggest there have been at least 5 games V Geelong (3 in the last 4 years alone) that were blockbuster lockouts. We have also had 2-3 matches V Hawthorn (one in 2000 comes to mind that would have pushed 80,000) and other matches. I would say you could easily add another 8-10 games since 2000 that would have drawn 70,000+ and thus another explaination why Essendons number is lower than you would expect. If Essendon regains form, our match V Geelong on 2nd July is another match that as a home game for Essendon could be pushing 80,000.

I essentially agree with you Dave but would argue that the "single biggest impact" is notthe Dome but rather form post 2005. My point is not so much what would or would not have been 70K attendances but rather what circumstances give rise to such attendances.

Taking Essendon for example the relative lack of 70K plus attendances since 2005 is mostly down to poor form and consequent poor ladder position rather than to the Dome. For example If Essendon and Richmond fall away in the next month the Round 16 game will be about 55/60,000. If both are top 8 it'll be about 80,000. One a run of the mill Big 4 attendance with both going poorly. The other a blockbuster. Ladder position will be the decisive thing. This is true of all clubs and all match ups.

You are also right about the impact of home team on "Victorian derby" match ups. it is almost entirely irrelevant but to be fair to hawkk I think he was using it as a filter to make a general point without having to trawl through lots of stats.

 

[dave10]

I essentially agree with you Dave but would argue that the "single biggest impact" is notthe Dome but rather form post 2005. My point is not so much what would or would not have been 70K attendances but rather what circumstances give rise to such attendances.

Taking Essendon for example the relative lack of 70K plus attendances since 2005 is mostly down to poor form and consequent poor ladder position rather than to the Dome. For example If Essendon and Richmond fall away in the next month the Round 16 game will be about 55/60,000. If both are top 8 it'll be about 80,000. One a run of the mill Big 4 attendance with both going poorly. The other a blockbuster. Ladder position will be the decisive thing. This is true of all clubs and all match ups.

You are also right about the impact of home team on "Victorian derby" match ups. it is almost entirely irrelevant but to be fair to hawkk I think he was using it as a filter to make a general point without having to trawl through lots of stats.

Generally speaking form plays a significant part. However, if you look back over the last 4 years to the Ess V Geelong matches at the Dome, 3 of them 3were matches in the middle of the year which at the time were very strong matches with blockbuster status. In 2 of these matches, this was the game that ultimately led to Essendon's demise in each of the respective seasons. Last year for instance was another good example of a game that would have drawn 70,000+. The week after we wouldn't have though!!!!

 

[Hawkk]

Sorry but the home game figure isnt a good measure at all.

It was a analomy that surprised me, hence making a point about how they contrast to Carlton, Richmond and even Hawthorn.

My point was that the gap between the top 6 clubs has squared up considerably compared to historical numbers based on these figures.

Round 22 2009, Hawthorn were outnumbered by Essendon fans despite it being Hawthorns Home game. Would 40k+ Hawks fans turn up to a Essendon home game if the positions were reversed? No. Why should Hawthorn be credited with drawing 70k+ because it was there home game when it was the away fans who made up the majority of the attendance?

Hawthorn has had pretty strong turnouts to the Geelong-Hawthorn games in recent times (albeit probably not 40k) but that is beside the point.

My point wasn't comparing exact drawing power between the clubs merely pointing out historical high drawing home games and comparing history to the last 10 years.

Sorry but alot of time its down to circumstance of when your home game is as you would know. Most 70k+ crowds takes 2 sets of fans turning up. Big crowd turns up for early season Big 4 clash no matter who's home game it is.

For example having late season home game dead rubbers against Carlton last year and Richmond in 2009 where no away fans turned up in big numbers when the corresponding fixtures early in those seasons drew 70k+.

It also depends on where the games are scheduled as well. Case in point the high drawing games that Essendon/Carlton have played at Docklands in front of sell out crowds as opposed to playing them at the MCG

 

[Hawkk]

Generally speaking form plays a significant part. However, if you look back over the last 4 years to the Ess V Geelong matches at the Dome, 3 of them 3were matches in the middle of the year which at the time were very strong matches with blockbuster status. In 2 of these matches, this was the game that ultimately led to Essendon's demise in each of the respective seasons. Last year for instance was another good example of a game that would have drawn 70,000+. The week after we wouldn't have though!!!!

Playing devils advocate here but games that are supposed to draw 70,000 don't always draw 70,000 in reality

Case in point Geelong-Essendon Rd 1 2010

Geelong's first game since the premiership, Essendon playing there first game since making the finals in 2009...75,000? 57,772

 

[Underarm]

Very interesting stats.

Also shows how any "big 3 or 4" can change.

In the 50's and early 60's there was a "big 2" Melbourne and Collingwood.

By the late 60's through to the 80's the "big 3" were Richmond, Carlton and Collingwood.

In the 90's the "big 3" changed to Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood.

Nowadays Collingwood tends to draw a big crowd against most of the Vic teams with Carlton (history) and Essendon (anzac day) their biggest games.

yeah it does change. honestly i like to think of it more of a 'big 6'. Hawks and Geelong draw well against each other and Collingwood. they have certainly moved closer to the big 4 than Saints/dogs/melb/north have recently.

 

[dave10]

Playing devils advocate here but games that are supposed to draw 70,000 don't always draw 70,000 in reality

Case in point Geelong-Essendon Rd 1 2010

Geelong's first game since the premiership, Essendon playing there first game since making the finals in 2009...75,000? 57,772[/QUOTE]

Not really. This match was a Geelong home match played on a night when it rained in the afternoon / early evening. If it was Essendons home match on a reasonable night it would have been 70,000 as we used to draw in mid / late 1990's..

Examples of matches that would have drawn over 70,000 include (excuse me if I feel like Dan for a minute!):
2001 - V Hawthorn (50,701)
2004 - V Geelong (51,400) & V St Kilda (50392)
2007 - V Geelong (51,156)
2008 - V Geelong (50,636) & Hawthorn (50,452)
2009 - V Geelong (48,852)
All games that had bid build ups and lock outs. These were the sort of games Essendon used to draw 70,000 to in the late 1990's which now is not possible.
Lock outs and no AFL / MCC members / neutrals driving the attendance up.

Another point re the contribution of MCC / AFL members I think was well exposed last Friday night. The Ess V Mel game would have drawn about 45,000 at the Dome. In stead 53,000 went along. Just shows you can add an increment of at least 15% to the crowd if at MCG (assuming no sell out). Collingwood have shown this with its matches V interstate teams at the Dome this year V Port (35,000) and Adel (38,000). These matches would have been 40,000+ at the G.

I also think our match V Gold Coast would have been close to 40,000 at the G and our game V West Coast on Mothers Day would have drawn over 40,000 if at the G on any other day (except Mothers Day).

In 2007 Ess drew 49000 V WCE to the Dome - it would have possibly drawn over the 55,560 we drew against the Eagles in 1998 (still stands as their home and away attendance record).
Quite a few points to ponder there...

 

[Hawkk]

I'm not arguing that it wouldn't I'm merely pointing out that an example that you gave did not draw 70,000+

The MCC/AFL membership argument might have a point for some clubs i.e. Collingwood with AFL members and Melbourne with MCC members but it doesnt necessarily apply for all clubs, Richmond and Hawthorn supporters just hate the ground.

St Kilda, W Bulldogs, Nth Melbourne draw no more to the MCG then they do for other games while Carlton and Essendon draw consistantly strong crowds regardless of the venue

yeah it does change. honestly i like to think of it more of a 'big 6'. Hawks and Geelong draw well against each other and Collingwood. they have certainly moved closer to the big 4 than Saints/dogs/melb/north have recently

Hawks and Carlton is another

Regardless of form they have drawn huge crowds at Ethiad (i.e. 48k last season on a Sunday despite the Hawks being 2-6) and drew a just shy of 70k to the only game at the MCG over the last 5 years.

The lack of build up for Hawks-Blues games by the league surprises me as I posted in another thread it probably should be a much more hyped up rivalry then what it actually is, Carlton being the last team to defeat Hawthorn in a GF and the 20 years we spent at Princes Park.

Before 2008 many Hawks fans regarded Carlton as a top 3 fixture

 

[gaelictiogar]

Playing devils advocate here but games that are supposed to draw 70,000 don't always draw 70,000 in reality

Case in point Geelong-Essendon Rd 1 2010

Geelong's first game since the premiership, Essendon playing there first game since making the finals in 2009...75,000? 57,772[/QUOTE]

Not really. This match was a Geelong home match played on a night when it rained in the afternoon / early evening. If it was Essendons home match on a reasonable night it would have been 70,000 as we used to draw in mid / late 1990's..

Examples of matches that would have drawn over 70,000 include (excuse me if I feel like Dan for a minute!):
2001 - V Hawthorn (50,701)
2004 - V Geelong (51,400) & V St Kilda (50392)
2007 - V Geelong (51,156)
2008 - V Geelong (50,636) & Hawthorn (50,452)
2009 - V Geelong (48,852)
All games that had bid build ups and lock outs. These were the sort of games Essendon used to draw 70,000 to in the late 1990's which now is not possible.
Lock outs and no AFL / MCC members / neutrals driving the attendance up.

Another point re the contribution of MCC / AFL members I think was well exposed last Friday night. The Ess V Mel game would have drawn about 45,000 at the Dome. In stead 53,000 went along. Just shows you can add an increment of at least 15% to the crowd if at MCG (assuming no sell out). Collingwood have shown this with its matches V interstate teams at the Dome this year V Port (35,000) and Adel (38,000). These matches would have been 40,000+ at the G.

I also think our match V Gold Coast would have been close to 40,000 at the G and our game V West Coast on Mothers Day would have drawn over 40,000 if at the G on any other day (except Mothers Day).

In 2007 Ess drew 49000 V WCE to the Dome - it would have possibly drawn over the 55,560 we drew against the Eagles in 1998 (still stands as their home and away attendance record).
Quite a few points to ponder there...

In fairness Dave you can't on the one hand claim that home advantage is irrelevant to crowd turnout and then turn round and claim it is relevant in explaining a relatively disappointing turnout in a Geelong game at home to essendon.

Several of the games you mention would have approached or perhaps exceeded 70K. However if the Round 1 game Hawkk refers to had been at the Dome it is equally doubtless that it would be cited as a 70K that got away revealing the potential for assumption here.

It can be tempting to overestimate the attendance that "would/could/should" attend any game. Considering the rivalry since the 1980s Essendon V Hawthorn has rarely drawn all that well in truth even at the MCG. Since 2000 Essendon have played Hawthorn 12 times at the MCG in H+A games before an average of 49,562 with only one game exceeding 70K and no others even approaching it. The one 70K game was Round 22 2009 which was for all practical purposes an Elimination Final with 8th placed Essendon 2 points ahead of 9th placed Hawthorn.

The fact is that it has taken finals or the de facto final in 2009 for the MCG to host a 70K attendance for Essendon V hawthorn and assumptions that other games may have hit 70K are possibly wide of the mark however attractive they may have been. 60K yes. 70K? On ALL statistical evidence it's a very high bar for a Bombers V hawks game and certainly too high to make the assumption it woud be exceeded.

Essentially what I'm saying is that "would have" is better put as "could perhaps have in ideal circumstances". "Would have" is one thing. "Did" is another.

 

[Hawkk]

This is true

Games that could of/should of/would have drawn enormous crowds don’t always draw huge crowds. Essendon certainly have the potential to draw the huge crowds (give their support base and historical crowd numbers) but these games don’t necessarily draw huge numbers reflective of the support base (case in point Geel/Ess and Haw/Ess 58k and 55k last year)

The Geel/Haw games have avg: 72,882 over the last 6 games but before 2008 they had never played a home and away game in front of 40k, given the size of Essendon’s support base they should pull a further 10,000 against both clubs.

From a Hawthorn perspective Essendon is still the #1 rivalry IMO, like the Geelong game (which was a sleeping rivalry for a long time) these fixtures have the capacity to draw much larger numbers (a bit like the re-emergence of the Carlton-Richmond rivalry since 2006)

The Essendon-Geelong games have drawn surprisingly huge crowds over the years (which is surprising given the relatively little rivalry that exists between the clubs from an on field perspective) so that 2010 game may have been the exception to the rule rather than the common place.

 

[gaelictiogar]

This is true

Games that could of/should of/would have drawn enormous crowds don’t always draw huge crowds. Essendon certainly have the potential to draw the huge crowds (give their support base and historical crowd numbers) but these games don’t necessarily draw huge numbers reflective of the support base (case in point Geel/Ess and Haw/Ess 58k and 55k last year)

The Geel/Haw games have avg: 72,882 over the last 6 games but before 2008 they had never played a home and away game in front of 40k, given the size of Essendon’s support base they should pull a further 10,000 against both clubs.

From a Hawthorn perspective Essendon is still the #1 rivalry IMO, like the Geelong game (which was a sleeping rivalry for a long time) these fixtures have the capacity to draw much larger numbers (a bit like the re-emergence of the Carlton-Richmond rivalry since 2006)

The Essendon-Geelong games have drawn surprisingly huge crowds over the years (which is surprising given the relatively little rivalry that exists between the clubs from an on field perspective) so that 2010 game may have been the exception to the rule rather than the common place.

The consistently high numbers at Essendon V Geelong surproses me as well. Neither fanbase sees the other as a major rival. Certainly Geelong would seem to be way down the list in terms of who Essendon regard as rivals.

That said because Geelong are a "country team" playing out of a postage stamp small town stadium it is tempting to suppose they are a smaller club then they actually are nothing of the kind. Clearly recent years have seen them near enough to max drawing ability but even with that they do draw well when they come up to the city.

 

[Professor Knowall]

Why are the usual bunch of our NRL rugby trolls avoiding this thread?

 

[Domenic Fotia]

Why are the usual bunch of our NRL rugby trolls avoiding this thread?

what is the biggest crowd for a nrl h&a game?

 

[Dumpstar]

Agree.
In the next negotiations i hope Carlton play the Interstaters at the Dome and all others at the G.

Don't we already play all the interstaters at the Dome? Can't remember a game at the MCG against any of them in recent times.

 

[Blackas87]

what is the biggest crowd for a nrl h&a game?

Well the largest crowd for nrl was a double header, Parramatta vs St George Illawarra followed by manly vs Newcastle got 104583
But the highest crowd for a single game was Brisbane vs St George got 58593

 

[dave10]

In fairness Dave you can't on the one hand claim that home advantage is irrelevant to crowd turnout and then turn round and claim it is relevant in explaining a relatively disappointing turnout in a Geelong game at home to essendon.

Several of the games you mention would have approached or perhaps exceeded 70K. However if the Round 1 game Hawkk refers to had been at the Dome it is equally doubtless that it would be cited as a 70K that got away revealing the potential for assumption here.

It can be tempting to overestimate the attendance that "would/could/should" attend any game. Considering the rivalry since the 1980s Essendon V Hawthorn has rarely drawn all that well in truth even at the MCG. Since 2000 Essendon have played Hawthorn 12 times at the MCG in H+A games before an average of 49,562 with only one game exceeding 70K and no others even approaching it. The one 70K game was Round 22 2009 which was for all practical purposes an Elimination Final with 8th placed Essendon 2 points ahead of 9th placed Hawthorn.

The fact is that it has taken finals or the de facto final in 2009 for the MCG to host a 70K attendance for Essendon V hawthorn and assumptions that other games may have hit 70K are possibly wide of the mark however attractive they may have been. 60K yes. 70K? On ALL statistical evidence it's a very high bar for a Bombers V hawks game and certainly too high to make the assumption it woud be exceeded.

Essentially what I'm saying is that "would have" is better put as "could perhaps have in ideal circumstances". "Would have" is one thing. "Did" is another.

G, I never said home team is irrelevant? I suggest in Essendons case that playing at the Dome is the biggest single factor in explaining why Essendon have played in only 5 home matches plus 70,000 in recent years. 2011 is a good example of the home ground thing being a querky point; That Essendon have played in 3 games over 70000 this year and only 1 being a home game is not a reflection of Essendons drawing power, truth is if the Richmond and Carlton games were Essendon home games the crowds would have been no different - 83,000 and 78,500 respectively.

The late 1990's saw Essendon draw over 70,000 several times against Geelong. If Hawthorn was competitive in this period it would have done the same against them too. Do you doubt that a strong Essendon would ever draw less than 70,000 against a strong Hawthorn at the MCG? I don't. In the period you refer to in which Ess V Haw drew ave 49,000 either Essendon or Hawthorn were uncompetitive on field - of course it wont draw 70,000. This decase ave is not a reflection of Essendons drawing strenth but rather poor form or lack of capacity. In 3 of those years the MCG was under re construction. 2009 represented the first occasion where in at least a decade you both teams quite strong at the MCG. Ess V Hawthorn all things equal are Hawthorns biggest draw driven by the rivalry. If Geelong and Hawthorn get 70,000 this week, then it would be 80,000 if Haw was playing a strong Essendon this week. IF Essendon win the next 2 games, how many on the Friday night V Hawthorn - 80,000?

I am not surprised about Essendons strong crowds V Geelong over the recent years. Essendon is not far off Collingwood in drawing power and when doing well on field will naturally draw a big crowd. Essendon is as big a draw as it was in 1999 - it just can't 'prove' it as it plays many of the 60-70000 crowds at the Dome. So people may be forgetting its appeal. I thought the crowd V Melbourne was quite telling. Essendon off a loss (supporters still on board) V a Melbourne with its supporter base jumping off. 53,000. Not as though Essendon are top of the ladder like Collingwood. If Melbourne had beaten Carlton week prior it is realistic to assume the crowd would have pushed past 60,000 as MCC members would have been close to full (Essendon is the 2nd biggest club in the MCC behind Melbourne) and the Dees fans would have gone too with the slight help of the neutral footy fan helping.

For what its worth, there are many clubs that can pull 70,000 fans to the game. The bigger clubs will do it more regularly and not require the 'ingredients' to be perfect for this to occur.

It's an interesting topic to chat about. I wish all the big Melbourne clubs would be back up the ladder - footy is better for it.. Hawkk, not much better than another old fashioned Ess V Haw stoush like 2009? - the Kennett passion, Lloyds attack on Sewell, Brown's response, the fight. Rivalry built on the best foundations on display. Brilliant!

 

[MightyHawks]

These days, the biggest factor in getting 70,000+ crowds is the scheduling.

For Hawthorn, there are only 4 opponents that we can draw a 70,000 crowd.

Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton.

We only have a total of 4 matches against these opponents this year at the MCG.

If you include Richmond in the list then it's 5 in total.

Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon maximise their opportunities for larger crowds by playing each other twice every year.

3 of these games are always scheduled in the first 6 weeks of the year so a large crowd is practically guaranteed.

 

[gaelictiogar]

These days, the biggest factor in getting 70,000+ crowds is the scheduling.

For Hawthorn, there are only 4 opponents that we can draw a 70,000 crowd.

Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton.

We only have a total of 4 matches against these opponents this year at the MCG.

If you include Richmond in the list then it's 5 in total.

Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon maximise their opportunities for larger crowds by playing each other twice every year.

3 of these games are always scheduled in the first 6 weeks of the year so a large crowd is practically guaranteed.

Scheduling is a factor MH but it is by no means "the biggest factor in getting 70,000 crowds".

The biggest factor by a long distance is the form of the two clubs going into any game. Tak any match up and look at average when both clubs are top 8, when one is and one isn't and when both are bottom 8. There will be a clear difference between the average for all three situations.

Take the classic Carlton V Essendon match up. Since 1995 they have met 33 times. 2 wre in Round 1 and so we are left with 31 with a ladder placing.

Both top 8: 9 games average attendance 76,114.
One top 8 : 13 games average attendance 61,344.
Both bottom 8: 9 games average attendance 48,065.

As you can see ladder position has a huge influence. With both clubs top 8 they can challenge 80,000 regularly. With both bottom 8 they lose almost 40% of the "fair weather" support.

Any match up would tell a similar story.

Quite frankly for Carlton, Essendon and Richmond and to an extent Collingwood as well, the historical number of 70K attendances is a reflection of long term form. Equal out long term form and you go a long way to equalling out the number of 70K attendances. The number of 70K plus attendances is directly related to the number of times they went into Big 4 games in the top 8 since the G became a shared venue and overall attendance jumped in the 1990s.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Imagine if Collingwood had been playing at the MCG the whole time...

yikes.

 

[Gydafud]

Seeing as Collingwood have been the largest drawing club for however long, why was Victoria Park never expanded on to accommodate this? Was it just lack of funds or size restrictions? Same question goes for most of the suburban grounds.

 

[Copernicus]

Seeing as Collingwood have been the largest drawing club for however long, why was Victoria Park never expanded on to accommodate this? Was it just lack of funds or size restrictions? Same question goes for most of the suburban grounds.

I don't think they had the room. Vic Park is pretty confined by Lulie St. Plus all of the structures were aging and so to update the older stands and increase the capacity would have cost well more than could have been realistically afforded given the lack of MCC assistance that the 'G gets.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Seeing as Collingwood have been the largest drawing club for however long, why was Victoria Park never expanded on to accommodate this? Was it just lack of funds or size restrictions? Same question goes for most of the suburban grounds.

I don't want to derail this thread but in the interests of accuracy I'll just point out that in the years before the MCG became a regular H and A venue more often than not Vic Park did not see the largest average attendances of a season. Carlton at Princes Pk. and Richmond at Punt Rd. finished the year as top attended team as often as Collingwood did if not more often. I suspect The fact that Collingwood represented a loud and raucous Irish working class constituency and were the club the establishment hated tends to lead to them being seen as bigger than they actually were.

EG in the 20 years from 1945 to 1964 Collingwood were among the 2 best attended home teams on 7 occasions......exactly he same as Carlton.

I'm not presenting this as an argument but rather as a point of fact.

 

[Hawkk]

Rivalry and historical significance of the game plays a big factor as well

Take Essendon-Carlton, both clubs consider the rivalry in the top 2, if not the biggest rivalry either sides plays against each other, they therefore generally draw a healthy crowd of members/supporters to games against each other because it is a game both sets of fans mark down as a marquee fixture…obviously this has an impact when the clubs are at the top but it also provides attendance ‘padding’ when clubs are on or near the bottom (2006 aside)

Compare that to a lower profile game – i.e. Essendon-W Bulldogs or Carlton-Nth Melbourne and it’s reasonable to suggest that rivalries have a padding effect on attendances.

Naturally these rivalry games are generally played earlier in the season when both sides are in contention, in better weather, in the best timeslots etc. which ensures that at least one game a year has conditions that should maximise attendance (as MightyHawk pointed out) and therefore increasing the margin on high drawing games.

The inflated attendances at the 'blockbuster' games are driven by a number of factors; drawing power, history, fixturing, weather conditions, promotion.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Just did a bit of comparison on home attendance in the pre MCG era. Fascinating really.

Stats exist from 1921.
Richmond moved to the G in 1965
44 years from 1921 to 1944

Carlton were in the top 2 home supported teams 20 times, Melbourne 19 times, Richmond 18 times, Collingwood 8 times and Essendon 4 times.

Curiously enough South Melbourne with 8 top 2 home attendance finishes equalled Collingwood in that period of nearly half a century.

Isn't it remarkable how assumption and fact are often different?