A thread on politics- have some balls and post

[Elixuh]

I have no desire to get into too much of a back and forth on this as rarely do people change someone else's mind on strongly held views.. but in saying that here is my no doubt unpopular 2 bobs worth.

Sorry I just don't see Trump as the next Hitler/Genghis Khan/Mao ready to drone strike domestic political opponents and turn the USA into a dictatorship.

He has already had 4 years as President and the wheels of government seemed to turn as per usual, gee we have a vegetable as the POTUS now and everything still rolls along. The embedded bureaucracy(think Yes Minister) and the lettered agencies eg. DOD, CIA, NSA, DHS etc really run the show anyway.

The best indicator of future behaviour is previous behaviour, Trump no doubt is a bombastic buffoon and a raging narcissist but a mass murdering genocidal dictator ready to rip up the constitution in the making? I don't see it, Armageddon is not incoming if he wins the election.

IMO.

I don't think the primary risk with Trump is him progressing these big ticket overt acts like turning the USA into a dictatorship or drone striking opponents. The risk is a lot of smaller decisions which begin, quicken or open the door to erosion of fundamental principles around basic rights, laws, democracy, equality etc...that when looked at individually the decisions don't appear to mean much but when considered cumulatively and projected over the long-term will have serious impacts on the fabric of the US.

 

[martinson]

The embedded power structure love to divide us serfs into warring tribes, I socialize with a myriad of people on both sides of the same political coin, we have far more in common than not.

Some can not seem to get their head around the fact that Trump has already had 4 years and it was business as per usual, he is not going to become a tyrannical dictator, the US system will not allow it even if he wanted to.

You really can't see the dems letting Biden go on but the fact that they've let it get this far indicates that he was just a figurehead anyway.

The Clintons ,Obamas and Biden string pullers conspired with the FBI with the Russian thing for the major part of Trump's last go which basically crippled it . That was clearly shown to be a total invented smokescreen and sham . So if that wasn't a threat to democracy I don't know what is.

So if Trump flukes it again expect any term to be mired in legal battles with him completely hamstrung. And per chance Biden gets in expect 4 more years of the same . i.e. nothing happening with the US responding to world 'crises' much as they always have. With the exception that Trump has shown extreme reluctance to drop bombs unlike many of the nutjobs in his party and the Clinton/Obama/Biden cartel who just dropped bombs everywhere there's an issue. Like Gaza on steroids.

I do think however once the next term is done a charismatic figure will emerge with a Kennedy/Teddy Roosevelt like optimism and galvanise the millenials into the next era . Just an historical pattern

 

[martinson]

I don't think the primary risk with Trump is him progressing these big ticket overt acts like turning the USA into a dictatorship or drone striking opponents. The risk is a lot of smaller decisions which begin, quicken or open the door to erosion of fundamental principles around basic rights, laws, democracy, equality etc...that when looked at individually the decisions don't appear to mean much but when considered cumulatively and projected over the long-term will have serious impacts on the fabric of the US.

That's definitely a factor but the reality never matches the expectation. Trump talks a lot but what happened last time ? Not a lot.

Obama was going to change the fabric of American society with the Yes we can campaign being the first coloured Pres and all and he turned out to be just as conservative as Bush.

The last time I was over there homelessness has become a massive social issue .Places like SF and NYC are overloaded with homeless ghettos and none of the candidates have talked about it for the last 20 years.

 

[M Malice]

You're a legend martinson , put it all better than I could, I was suckered in to the Obama Hope and Change mantra, nothing of any significance changed and hope went nowhere, if anything race relations got worse.

#lobbyistsUSA

 

[dlanod]

You're a legend martinson , put it all better than I could, I was suckered in to the Obama Hope and Change mantra, nothing of any significance changed and hope went nowhere, if anything race relations got worse.

#lobbyistsUSA

Yep, turns out you put a person of colour in power and racists all seem to think it means it's fair game to come out of the woodwork and spout vile crap - of course, it means they were already there though... On the plus side, now the next POTUS of colour can have them all shot and claim presidential immunity because it was required to perform their job effectively! Win-win!

 

[martinson]

You're a legend martinson , put it all better than I could, I was suckered in to the Obama Hope and Change mantra, nothing of any significance changed and hope went nowhere, if anything race relations got worse.

#lobbyistsUSA

People here will probably think I'm pro Trump which I'm not but just bemused that neither party can put up someone who can at least talk the talk which Obama was a master at.

During my lifetime we haven't had one Pres. who's changed the course of history in a way that one from the other side wouldn't have done.

We've had scare campaigns as to what would happen at every post WW2 election campaign and none of it's ever happened

We've had really smart guys like Bill Clinton who just knew how to play the game , really honorable ones like Bush Snr. and Jimmy Carter whose legacies are perceived with weakness , neocons like Lyndon B who ironically spent his whole presidency trying to get himself out of the geopolitical shit that a progressive like Kennedy landed him in , and couldn't do it, a super smart one in Nixon who was so consumed with power that he disgraced himself over something he never needed to do , a cardboard cutout like Reagan who played the media and the public like the consummate pro he was ,you can go back prior through all of them . In fact Reagan and Clinton were remarkably similar in the tone they set for their Presidencies and how they related to the voters.

The fact is that the American empire is in decline in historical terms and has been since the day Kennedy was shot and the country's soul was ripped apart. But it takes a long time for dominant empires to blow up and I doubt anyone here will be alive to witness any deleterious outcome. Thankfully.

Trump and Biden facing off is Exhibit A of a bizarre climactic blowoff which is why I see the Pres. after very likely to be a reset someone of substance to rescue the Millenials from the perceived 'nightmare' they're going through. Another Yes we can type Pres.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I love the complete reversal of the left leaning media on Bidens mental capacity. The clips of them saying the opposite of what they were sprouting a few weeks ago are priceless
People’s opinion of the politicians is a mile in front of what we thing of these people who claim to be journalists

 

[martinson]

I love the complete reversal of the left leaning media on Bidens mental capacity. The clips of them saying the opposite of what they were sprouting a few weeks ago are priceless
People’s opinion of the politicians is a mile in front of what we thing of these people who claim to be journalists

Sadly journalists are forced to or want to take sides to win jobs and impress the networks and media who are all pivoted a certain way.

The essence of true journalism is to draw out the facts or the facts as the protagonists see them to create a mural from which the viewer or reader is able to form an opinion or not, rationally from the relevant presentation.

Now they're just personalities and opinion bashers . Siezing on every perceived good or bad moment of their pet subject depending on their slant.

Pretty much a replica of SM which ironically lays things out in the antithesis to the professional ethics you'd want journalists to be upholding

 

[notliondown]

Trumps first term had hand brakes imposed on it by a fairly neutral supreme court. Additionally it took time for him to assess the mechanism of government and figure out the road blocks that lay in his way to doing whatever the hell he wanted.

Things have changed drastically since then and to pretend they haven't is naivety at best and ignorance at worst.

The Supreme court is now stacked with Right wing whack jobs who have no issue in imposing their beliefs on the judicial system as opposed to the neutrality of the law. They have no interest in the separation of powers which was a core and fundamental belief of the founding fathers of the US constitution.

In fact those same founding fathers centuries ago feared what might happen if the Supreme court was ever taken over by "bad men".

The opinions of the Supreme court in the last weeks have shaken the US to the core.

The immunity opinion is insane by itself and places the President above the law or prosecution. The official act part is as rubbery as week old jelly and is no defense to any President turning the US into a semi dictatorship.

The Chevron opinion literally dismantles the mechanism of Democratic government. And if you don't understand why here's the shortest version I can give.

When a Govt passes a bill it cannot ever conceive of all the weird circumstances that may arise as a result. So interpretation and enforcement of those laws effectively falls to the relevant departments and jurisdictions. As they are deemed to be "experts" and regulators, courts effectively back the decisions of those bodies to enforce the laws.

This new opinion means that's no longer the case. It means that Government bodies are no longer able to enforce laws with surety or without the threat of every corporation with bottomless pockets being able to mount legal challenges on EVERYTHING.

Example- Corporation A wants to put lead in your water because they can make money out it. Health department says no that's dangerous, here's the law to say you can't bugger off. In the past that's good enough.

Now corporation A says we stand to make billions out of this and you are a toothless tiger so we will take you to court. We are prepared to tie you up and spend millions doing it. Health department says - we can't afford to go to court in 52 states or spend years of lawsuits... we are not funded that way... and given these departments no can longer rely on being the governing body chances are the deepest pockets win.

Think about safety issues for workers, think about pharmaceutical companies challenging the health departments and FDA, think about car safety measures, plane safety, gas fields and coal mines without regulation or environmental responsibilities.... it goes on and on.

Effectively it means the court system will be clogged with vested interests challenging every law that doesn't suit them.

You might not like the system of Govt that we have, but generally speaking society works because we all understand there are lines we don't cross and laws designed to protect us.

Trump and Project 2025 have almost relied on these opinions being made. In fact they counted on them given the confidence they had in their appointees to the court.

Trump has said he will dismantle the Justice department - same with the EPA as a start.

This is retribution. This is revenge. This is targeted attack on those who dared disagree in his first term or since. If you think his second term will be like the first your are kidding yourselves. He's had 4 years to become more vengeful, more bitter and spiteful.

Even worse he's had 4 years to work out how to get his way and to continue what he started with the supreme court.

And if you think it's all rhetoric, have a look at the threat the MAGA campaign manager made to a young leftie social influencer on twitter who dared suggest now Biden could send the secret service to eliminate Trump because he believed he was a justifiable threat to democracy using the opinion Trump supporteres were sprouting.

"Expect a visit".

Yep. Democracy in the greatest country on earth.

 

[martinson]

Trumps first term had hand brakes imposed on it by a fairly neutral supreme court. Additionally it took time for him to assess the mechanism of government and figure out the road blocks that lay in his way to doing whatever the hell he wanted.

Things have changed drastically since then and to pretend they haven't is naivety at best and ignorance at worst.

The Supreme court is now stacked with Right wing whack jobs who have no issue in imposing their beliefs on the judicial system as opposed to the neutrality of the law. They have no interest in the separation of powers which was a core and fundamental belief of the founding fathers of the US constitution.

In fact those same founding fathers centuries ago feared what might happen if the Supreme court was ever taken over by "bad men".

The opinions of the Supreme court in the last weeks have shaken the US to the core.

The immunity opinion is insane by itself and places the President above the law or prosecution. The official act part is as rubbery as week old jelly and is no defense to any President turning the US into a semi dictatorship.

The Chevron opinion literally dismantles the mechanism of Democratic government. And if you don't understand why here's the shortest version I can give.

When a Govt passes a bill it cannot ever conceive of all the weird circumstances that may arise as a result. So interpretation and enforcement of those laws effectively falls to the relevant departments and jurisdictions. As they are deemed to be "experts" and regulators, courts effectively back the decisions of those bodies to enforce the laws.

This new opinion means that's no longer the case. It means that Government bodies are no longer able to enforce laws with surety or without the threat of every corporation with bottomless pockets being able to mount legal challenges on EVERYTHING.

Example- Corporation A wants to put lead in your water because they can make money out it. Health department says no that's dangerous, here's the law to say you can't bugger off. In the past that's good enough.

Now corporation A says we stand to make billions out of this and you are a toothless tiger so we will take you to court. We are prepared to tie you up and spend millions doing it. Health department says - we can't afford to go to court in 52 states or spend years of lawsuits... we are not funded that way... and given these departments no can longer rely on being the governing body chances are the deepest pockets win.

Think about safety issues for workers, think about pharmaceutical companies challenging the health departments and FDA, think about car safety measures, plane safety, gas fields and coal mines without regulation or environmental responsibilities.... it goes on and on.

Effectively it means the court system will be clogged with vested interests challenging every law that doesn't suit them.

You might not like the system of Govt that we have, but generally speaking society works because we all understand there are lines we don't cross and laws designed to protect us.

Trump and Project 2025 have almost relied on these opinions being made. In fact they counted on them given the confidence they had in their appointees to the court.

Trump has said he will dismantle the Justice department - same with the EPA as a start.

This is retribution. This is revenge. This is targeted attack on those who dared disagree in his first term or since. If you think his second term will be like the first your are kidding yourselves. He's had 4 years to become more vengeful, more bitter and spiteful.

Even worse he's had 4 years to work out how to get his way and to continue what he started with the supreme court.

And if you think it's all rhetoric, have a look at the threat the MAGA campaign manager made to a young leftie social influencer on twitter who dared suggest now Biden could send the secret service to eliminate Trump because he believed he was a justifiable threat to democracy using the opinion Trump supporteres were sprouting.

"Expect a visit".

Yep. Democracy in the greatest country on earth.

Nice to see someone passionate about their politics.

It's a catastrophic picture you paint. And a capacity to mindread Trump.

That's an exceptional effort.

He's not the first Pres. to be involved in Presidential immunity issues , not that there is any direct immunity issue as yet or that he's even Pres.

I hope he doesn't win so you can sleep easy at night

 

[notliondown]

Nice to see someone passionate about their politics.

It's a catastrophic picture you paint. And a capacity to mindread Trump.

That's an exceptional effort.

He's not the first Pres. to be involved in Presidential immunity issues , not that there is any direct immunity issue as yet or that he's even Pres.

I hope he doesn't win so you can sleep easy at night

I tend to follow US politics a bit - simply because of the trickle down affect - and the way it influences politics here.

I think a lot of neutral's in the US tend to think there is potential for catastrophe it's not just me. More and more are saying it with these new opinions by the court.

It's an indictment on the US system that Trump and Biden are the candidates. It should be a warning to the moderates to pull their fingers out and act.

I don't like either of them but 1 at least has some sort of respect for stability, the institutions of democracy and the rights of individuals.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I go to the footy each week with a retired journalist who had many corrections of his writing as the editor would say he was presenting opinion rather than reporting facts.
The opinion page was where opinion could be presented
He bemoans the state of journalism

 

[M Malice]

I am not expecting the sky to fall in IF Trump becomes President again, Media(for the clicks) and the opposite side of Politics(for the power) always like to to push the doomsday narrative.

During the 2016 Presidential campaign it was pushed that Trump was the devil incarnate and/or the next Hitler... didn't see that unfold when he won.

Politicians are in the main narcissists and corrupt, the USA just has it on a gargantuan superhyped scale via their all powerful benefactors, embedded by the lobbyist system.

 

[Whatamark]

On his own Trump is incompetent - it's the gits that have gathered around him that worry me.

 

[martinson]

I am not expecting the sky to fall in IF Trump becomes President again, Media(for the clicks) and the opposite side of Politics(for the power) always like to to push the doomsday narrative.

During the 2016 Presidential campaign it was pushed that Trump was the devil incarnate and/or the next Hitler... didn't see that unfold when he won.

Politicians are in the main narcissists and corrupt, the USA just has it on a gargantuan superhyped scale via their all powerful benefactors, embedded by the lobbyist system.

After what they threw at him when he won day after day I don't know how he got out of bed in the morning

It seems he has no regard for his family or himself to run again. It would be a nightmare in my view.

Therefore he is likely mad. But I don't think he's stupid or dangerous.

Biden is half demented. Obviously. But I don't think he's pulling the strings nor is he dangerous.

Trump was going to start a nuclear war last time . Apparently. Biden was going to bring integrity back into politics last time. Apparently .

Honestly it'll all be fine whatever happens.

 

[SizeMatters]

USA (and by extension the West) is finished. Don't have the same global influence it once did. The weakness of democracy is that the terms are short (though some may see this as a positive). A lot of measures are committed and introduced that impact the vote for the next term - it's mostly about the next election and how we can spend to stay in power. There is little longer term strategic thinking. Compare that to the CCP who are in power indefinitely and have positioned China to dominate the global supply chains for the rest of our lives. Manufacturing, multi-sectoral commodities, even they are growing into a technological superpower - which was their biggest barrier previously to rival USA. Everything flows to China. Talk the critical mineral supply chain for instance. The CCP has behind closed doors financially and politically backed their mining and processing companies to take control either through long term supply offtakes, corruption, or just buying outright deposits. No Western country or bloc has even come close to anything like this as they are too busy (and prioritise) squabbling over he said, she said, they said politicking to sway domestic public opinion and stay on top of the polls. It's pathetic.

The true global economy is tied much closer to China than the USA. I worry about my quality of life in the next 20 years if the CCP starts to really exert their economic influence. I'm not talking about tariffs on a few industries either. Just my opinion, but I feel the Commonwealth is spineless and has been selling out to China for the past 15 years. Particularly under the previous Government but this current Government is the softest of them all.

 

[Elixuh]

 

[Elixuh]

USA (and by extension the West) is finished. Don't have the same global influence it once did. The weakness of democracy is that the terms are short (though some may see this as a positive). A lot of measures are committed and introduced that impact the vote for the next term - it's mostly about the next election and how we can spend to stay in power. There is little longer term strategic thinking. Compare that to the CCP who are in power indefinitely and have positioned China to dominate the global supply chains for the rest of our lives. Manufacturing, multi-sectoral commodities, even they are growing into a technological superpower - which was their biggest barrier previously to rival USA. Everything flows to China. Talk the critical mineral supply chain for instance. The CCP has behind closed doors financially and politically backed their mining and processing companies to take control either through long term supply offtakes, corruption, or just buying outright deposits. No Western country or bloc has even come close to anything like this as they are too busy (and prioritise) squabbling over he said, she said, they said politicking to sway domestic public opinion and stay on top of the polls. It's pathetic.

The true global economy is tied much closer to China than the USA. I worry about my quality of life in the next 20 years if the CCP starts to really exert their economic influence. I'm not talking about tariffs on a few industries either. Just my opinion, but I feel the Commonwealth is spineless and has been selling out to China for the past 15 years. Particularly under the previous Government but this current Government is the softest of them all.

I actually agree with the sentiment. It'd be interesting to see the economic devastation here if China turned off the tap to our miners for a short while, which they could theoretically do with the mineral reserves they have. But they're running a much bigger economic ponzi than us so it all needs to keep chugging along, fortunes are tied and things of that nature.

Russia is still more of a worry than China. Russia wants to break the world order whereas China just wants to sit at the top of it.

 

[SizeMatters]

I actually agree with the sentiment. It'd be interesting to see the economic devastation here if China turned off the tap to our miners for a short while, which they could theoretically do with the mineral reserves they have. But they're running a much bigger economic ponzi than us so it all needs to keep chugging along, fortunes are tied and things of that nature.

Russia is still more of a worry than China. Russia wants to break the world order whereas China just wants to sit at the top of it.

A few years ago there was zero chance China did anything with our energy and iron exports. It would have crippled their economy if they stamped an increased import tariff or ban.

Now… they have a growing gas import partnership with russia, iron ore from Indonesia and a growing resource base out of Africa (many large scale deposits acquired via corruption which extends to pretty much any major commodity). They soon won’t really need Australia. Will they go Rambo and pull the rug from under our feet? Likely not. Will they economically blackmail and coerce Australia going forward on our “safe havens” for keeping China “on our side”? Probably.

I’m fortunate to work in a privileged (well… depends how you view it!) industry and have a lot of exposure to these issues. It’s not tin foil hat “I’ll have what our having” bs.

Australia is ****ed. We wanted to be the hare while others around us chose the tortoise.