Strategy Aaron Naughton - Key Defender or Key Forward?

[stefoid]

ugh, watch this bullshit from round 1 last year if you have a strong stomach.

From The Notebook, Round 1: Power movement, Bulldogs’ Groundhog Day, Rossball in effect

Round 1 had some surprising results, standout performances, and arguably confirmation the league is indeed trending towards a more offensive-based product.

theshinboner.com

 

[Bulldog rick]

Nice find. He’s having some success in his new role for sure.

Really Marra is letting us down big time. The change is putting Naughts up the ground and we make Marra our #1 target, and it’s generating shots, but we’re kicking it to the least accurate key forward in the comp.

I guess there’s an argument that we can’t react to Marras kicking woes too much as chances are that will even out as his career goes on, he’s pretty unlikely to kick this poorly forever.

Maybe more blindfolded kicking practice is required….

I think what needs to be done is to train up Caesar our bulldog mascot as a seeing eye dog. Get Caesar to sit on the goal line and then bark so Marra knows where to kick for goal.

 

[dogwatch]

Hardwick lamenting that Jesus Christ couldn’t have gone with Naughton in his presser after that game. Looked transformational, gone backwards quickly.

Disagree. As others have noted Richmond didn't pay him too much close attention that day but it changed from then on. Opponents now put a lot more work into him when he plays deep forward. He has also averaged 47 goals a year/2 goals a game for the last three years. I wouldn't call that going backwards unless you expect him to kick 6 every week.

Because he has only kicked 1 goal a game in four rounds this year doesn't mean he has gone backwards either. He has taken on a different role, as shown by that shinboner link posted by stefoid. And he has been very effective by the looks of it. In one of those games he was voted close to BoG in the Ching.

 

[lachy]

Because he has only kicked 1 goal a game in four rounds this year doesn't mean he has gone backwards either. He has taken on a different role, as shown by that shinboner link posted by stefoid. And he has been very effective by the looks of it. In one of those games he was voted close to BoG in the Ching.

Against a VFL level team. The vast majority of his better games are against average to poor teams, there are no statistics nor indicators that dispute this.

Having him playing higher and pushing to the wings to be an outlet is far and away the best option if he is playing forward. The reverse is true playing back.

He is a good, but at this stage not close to a great player and will not be until he settles as either a high forward or high back in general, and from a forward perspective Cameron is an excellent proto type. Though it would likely not have had any impact on last weeks game, maybe having him run with Cameron in the second half could have provided him with the best possible learning of playing that role ongoing.

Importantly playing tis role he and JUH and Weightman will not be shutting down each others space. West is also competent overhead as is Darcy (Lobb or English to when Darcy is rucking or on the bench). The new role will take some some time to learn, which is why we may have missed a great fast track learning last week, however the debate really is no longer forward or back it is more high or deep and which one will allow him to realise his potential whilst developing the team systems

 

[dogwatch]

Against a VFL level team. The vast majority of his better games are against average to poor teams, there are no statistics nor indicators that dispute this.

Having him playing higher and pushing to the wings to be an outlet is far and away the best option if he is playing forward. The reverse is true playing back.

He is a good, but at this stage not close to a great player and will not be until he settles as either a high forward or high back in general, and from a forward perspective Cameron is an excellent proto type. Though it would likely not have had any impact on last weeks game, maybe having him run with Cameron in the second half could have provided him with the best possible learning of playing that role ongoing.

Importantly playing tis role he and JUH and Weightman will not be shutting down each others space. West is also competent overhead as is Darcy (Lobb or English to when Darcy is rucking or on the bench). The new role will take some some time to learn, which is why we may have missed a great fast track learning last week, however the debate really is no longer forward or back it is more high or deep and which one will allow him to realise his potential whilst developing the team systems

Agree with most of your post but I was intrigued by the bolded bit.

So I selected some of the key stats over the period 2018-2023 that we would judge a player like Naughton by. I then looked at how he did against different teams over his career. Those stats were

Disposals​

Goals​

Tackles​

CPs​

CMs​

Mi50​

GAs​

(I also tried Brownlow votes but he has only polled 18 in his career so it's hard to show a valid trend on those).
You could add different stats if you like but they are the main things I'd look for.

Then I tabulated them and looked at the results. To me they don't indicate any strong trend. Not surprisingly Richmond is one of the ones he ranks best against but that's heavily skewed by THAT breakout game a few years back. He has only played against them 6 times in his career.

Across those criteria, the only sides he has done poorly (less well) against seem to be Collingwood, Melbourne (strong sides), North and West Coast (weak sides). Followed perhaps by Carlton, Freo and St Kilda (average sides).

The only sides he has done consistently well against were Richmond (strong down to average) and Essendon (weak), followed perhaps by Brisbane (strong) Port (average to strong) and Adelaide (average to weak).

To me this doesn't back up your statement in the bolded bit but of course it's an inexact science so I'd be happy to consider what evidence you might have or additional points to make. I'm happy to share the data I've extracted if you want.

I have no particular barrow to push here except that sometimes on this board we see a popular myth established because a few people put some viewpoint and then it gets echoed back. Before you know it, it becomes accepted fact when in some cases it is never tested against the evidence. If what you say is provable, then fair enough. But if it's not then I think it does Naughton an injustice.

Also bear in mind when looking at these stats that for MOST players in the AFL we should expect their numbers to look better against weaker teams than against the top teams.

 

[lachy]

Agree with most of your post but I was intrigued by the bolded bit.

So I selected some of the key stats over the period 2018-2023 that we would judge a player like Naughton by. I then looked at how he did against different teams over his career. Those stats were

Disposals​

Goals​

Tackles​

CPs​

CMs​

Mi50​

GAs​

(I also tried Brownlow votes but he has only polled 18 in his career so it's hard to show a valid trend on those).
You could add different stats if you like but they are the main things I'd look for.

Then I tabulated them and looked at the results. To me they don't indicate any strong trend. Not surprisingly Richmond is one of the ones he ranks best against but that's heavily skewed by THAT breakout game a few years back. He has only played against them 6 times in his career.

Across those criteria, the only sides he has done poorly (less well) against seem to be Collingwood, Melbourne (strong sides), North and West Coast (weak sides). Followed perhaps by Carlton, Freo and St Kilda (average sides).

The only sides he has done consistently well against were Richmond (strong down to average) and Essendon (weak), followed perhaps by Brisbane (strong) Port (average to strong) and Adelaide (average to weak).

To me this doesn't back up your statement in the bolded bit but of course it's an inexact science so I'd be happy to consider what evidence you might have or additional points to make. I'm happy to share the data I've extracted if you want.

I have no particular barrow to push here except that sometimes on this board we see a popular myth established because a few people put some viewpoint and then it gets echoed back. Before you know it, it becomes accepted fact when in some cases it is never tested against the evidence. If what you say is provable, then fair enough. But if it's not then I think it does Naughton an injustice.

Also bear in mind when looking at these stats that for MOST players in the AFL we should expect their numbers to look better against weaker teams than against the top teams.

Thanks for the Analysis Dogwatch.

I have no barrow to push other than he has not been a very good player in big games and is not an A grader who has consistently delivered in the deep forward role.

In his new role he may develop but to argue about him getting a Ching against a deplorable side this year holds no water. It is a wait and see and certainly worth persevering with as up till now he has been a good but not great player.

Even from your list above he has not been a strong player in that time period against:
Collingwood
Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney
GWS

In his deep forward role his times he has kicked 4 or more goals against are:
2019 Richmond (That Game) Geelong (2 goals in the final)
2020 Adelaide (1 Goal in the Final)
2021 Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast (7 goals across 4 finals)
2022 Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast, GWS 90 goals in finals)
2023 Hawthorn, Collingwood


So I will re word the statement, there are no statistics that demonstrate he has performed consistently well in big games in his deep forward roll and his better games are limited as evidenced by 18 Brownlow votes and the amount of times as a deep forward he has kicked 4 or more goals compared to the top level deep forwards in the competition. In other words keep developing him as a high forward to see if he can be a A grader, give it some time, but if it is not working try him as a high back, however even this season it should not be till after the bye.

 

[Foxman98]

Thanks for the Analysis Dogwatch.

I have no barrow to push other than he has not been a very good player in big games and is not an A grader who has consistently delivered in the deep forward role.

In his new role he may develop but to argue about him getting a Ching against a deplorable side this year holds no water. It is a wait and see and certainly worth persevering with as up till now he has been a good but not great player.

Even from your list above he has not been a strong player in that time period against:
Collingwood
Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney
GWS

In his deep forward role his times he has kicked 4 or more goals against are:
2019 Richmond (That Game) Geelong (2 goals in the final)
2020 Adelaide (1 Goal in the Final)
2021 Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast (7 goals across 4 finals)
2022 Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast, GWS 90 goals in finals)
2023 Hawthorn, Collingwood


So I will re word the statement, there are no statistics that demonstrate he has performed consistently well in big games in his deep forward roll and his better games are limited as evidenced by 18 Brownlow votes and the amount of times as a deep forward he has kicked 4 or more goals compared to the top level deep forwards in the competition. In other words keep developing him as a high forward to see if he can be a A grader, give it some time, but if it is not working try him as a high back, however even this season it should not be till after the bye.

I'd argue the 90 goals in finals you have there was a fair achievement in 2022

 

[lachy]

I'd argue the 90 goals in finals you have there was a fair achievement in 2022

Lol need to hold down the shift key for the brackets

 

[Next Waiting]

Agree with most of your post but I was intrigued by the bolded bit.

So I selected some of the key stats over the period 2018-2023 that we would judge a player like Naughton by. I then looked at how he did against different teams over his career. Those stats were

Disposals​

Goals​

Tackles​

CPs​

CMs​

Mi50​

GAs​

(I also tried Brownlow votes but he has only polled 18 in his career so it's hard to show a valid trend on those).
You could add different stats if you like but they are the main things I'd look for.

Then I tabulated them and looked at the results. To me they don't indicate any strong trend. Not surprisingly Richmond is one of the ones he ranks best against but that's heavily skewed by THAT breakout game a few years back. He has only played against them 6 times in his career.

Across those criteria, the only sides he has done poorly (less well) against seem to be Collingwood, Melbourne (strong sides), North and West Coast (weak sides). Followed perhaps by Carlton, Freo and St Kilda (average sides).

The only sides he has done consistently well against were Richmond (strong down to average) and Essendon (weak), followed perhaps by Brisbane (strong) Port (average to strong) and Adelaide (average to weak).

To me this doesn't back up your statement in the bolded bit but of course it's an inexact science so I'd be happy to consider what evidence you might have or additional points to make. I'm happy to share the data I've extracted if you want.

I have no particular barrow to push here except that sometimes on this board we see a popular myth established because a few people put some viewpoint and then it gets echoed back. Before you know it, it becomes accepted fact when in some cases it is never tested against the evidence. If what you say is provable, then fair enough. But if it's not then I think it does Naughton an injustice.

Also bear in mind when looking at these stats that for MOST players in the AFL we should expect their numbers to look better against weaker teams than against the top teams.

What about coaches votes as a measure. 30 informed votes per game where up to 10 players could poll every game versus 6 much less informed votes and 3 players max.

Brownlow votes carry little to no weight imo. The ching has more credibility and the coaches votes are very credible.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Naughton is a great mark, he gives his all, fights out all contests, beautiful to watch flying through the air, fearless.

Yet...for all his good work, he lacks something as a forward. I think the word is forward nous, players like Hawkins has it in spades.

When was the last time he took a simple chest mark on the lead in the forward 50 (Hawkins barely takes an overhead mark)?

Doesn't seem to want to run forward to the ball carrier that much either. Is it because he knows he struggles to kick goals accurately outside 40 metres? Most of his goals are from marks or ground balls close to goals. Struggles with simple left or right snaps, bananas etc which most players do comfortable these days. His set shot miss is always to the left, yet after years its still a miss to the left. Never misses to the right and I mean never.

We have him for 10 year now. We have at the moment Darcy flying, JUH improving (cant kick either though) and Weightman who I would classify as a lead up forward. That's enough in modern footy.

Would it work down back. I think so, yet you don't know unless you try. Imagine Naughts and Jones linking up for a year or two before Jones retires. Could if be the difference to help rise us up the ladder. Coaches must be thinking about it. Even if he is used as a swingman this year depending on matchups.

Ultimate goals is to pick the best side each week to win a game. For me, and I said this for a few years, CHB or FB is were Naughts should play in our current team. Injuries could change that.

 

[Next Waiting]

When was the last time he took a simple chest mark on the lead in the forward 50 (Hawkins barely takes an ov

Ironically he delivered a beautiful one I50 for Marra to run onto and convert last week.

He might be better placed to learn the art of leading as a fwd in his current role by delivering to Marra who runs great lines and lays down a runway for the hitter upperer to follow.

Sort of an osmosis thing.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

As much as anything you’d like his marks per game to go up. He is an unbelievable talent and should be the best mark in the game.

 

[dogwatch]

What about coaches votes as a measure. 30 informed votes per game where up to 10 players could poll every game versus 6 much less informed votes and 3 players max.

Brownlow votes carry little to no weight imo. The ching has more credibility and the coaches votes are very credible.

I'd happily use AFLCA votes if I knew the last 6 years of vote were stored somewhere in a digestible format.

Ching is a bit more accessible but I expect both methods still involve going through a lot of data and transcribing votes into a spreadsheet one game at a time.

 

[stefoid]

‘Losing all confidence’: Concerns over lost Dog as bizarre stat reveals power forward’s slump

‘Losing all confidence’: Concerns over lost Dog as bizarre stat reveals power forward’s slump

www.foxsports.com.au

proably listen to bucks more than knuckledee and knuckledum

 

[Next Waiting]

I'd happily use AFLCA votes if I knew the last 6 years of vote were stored somewhere in a digestible format.

Ching is a bit more accessible but I expect both methods still involve going through a lot of data and transcribing votes into a spreadsheet one game at a time.

Good point. Dog knows where you might find that. Sounds like an opportunity for a capable type......

 

[Next Waiting]

‘Losing all confidence’: Concerns over lost Dog as bizarre stat reveals power forward’s slump

‘Losing all confidence’: Concerns over lost Dog as bizarre stat reveals power forward’s slump

www.foxsports.com.au

proably listen to bucks more than knuckledee and knuckledum

. Everything needs a context. It doesn't look to me like he's lost confidence. Headline grabbing, yap generating crap.

FWIW, it looks to me like role exploration/fine tuning in season under match conditions to find the best combination of attributes and deployment thereof.

Brown may well have demanded the ball in his time, and if Miers was playing in that team, he may well have ignored him in favour of a better option...

 

[Snarls Barkley]

I'd happily use AFLCA votes if I knew the last 6 years of vote were stored somewhere in a digestible format.

Ching is a bit more accessible but I expect both methods still involve going through a lot of data and transcribing votes into a spreadsheet one game at a time.

AFL Home

www.wheeloratings.com

This site has nearly everything, could be able to find what you're after

 

[House_of_Dahl]

‘Losing all confidence’: Concerns over lost Dog as bizarre stat reveals power forward’s slump

‘Losing all confidence’: Concerns over lost Dog as bizarre stat reveals power forward’s slump

www.foxsports.com.au

proably listen to bucks more than knuckledee and knuckledum

Jesus christ how are these guys paid to commentate.

At least the article writer points it out...he's second in score assists (just behind Bont)...

 

[Golden_6]

Is it possible that we’re trying to turn Naughton into current day Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

?

Cameron isn’t really a normal forward anymore. He plays up the ground, gets cheap kicks, loses his opponent on the way back and then drifts forward to take marks and creat his scoring opportunities.

I could be wrong but I feel like Naughton’s taken a few marks this year drifting back around the 40-50m line, similar to Cameron.

 

[FoochPackage]

Is it possible that we’re trying to turn Naughton into current day Jeremy Cameron?

Cameron isn’t really a normal forward anymore. He plays up the ground, gets cheap kicks, loses his opponent on the way back and then drifts forward to take marks and creat his scoring opportunities.

I could be wrong but I feel like Naughton’s taken a few marks this year drifting back around the 40-50m line, similar to Cameron.

If we are that is stupid. Cameron knows what to do with the footy and knows how to kick a footy. Aaron struggles with both of those things.

 

[dogwatch]

Is it possible that we’re trying to turn Naughton into current day Jeremy Cameron?

Cameron isn’t really a normal forward anymore. He plays up the ground, gets cheap kicks, loses his opponent on the way back and then drifts forward to take marks and creat his scoring opportunities.

I could be wrong but I feel like Naughton’s taken a few marks this year drifting back around the 40-50m line, similar to Cameron.

In a world in which moving Naughton back to defence is a triple whammy (1.conceding after 5 years that it was a bad tactical move by Bevo, 2. running counter to Naughton's stated wishes, 3. vindicating the I-told-you-so media pundits) playing Naughton in this role is a sensible alternative and worth trying.

If it works he can do a lot of what Cameron does. It provides one of the missing links between half back and half forward, it provides a mobile crash-through big body who can operate at stoppages and even CBs and it even provides a get out target other than English for the kick-in after a behind. He can of course also drift forward to score.

Ultimately it may not end up being the answer but we had to try something new - remember Bevo's own words about the definition of insanity. The forward structure has not been a great success. It is still a work in progress and taking Naughton out of there for 60-70% of the time might give the others space to build up their own fluency and system.

So far I'd give it a C+. Certainly worth persevering with. We should give it some weeks (at least half a season) before declaring it a flop. Naughton himself will be learning this unusual role as he goes. It's not one that too many can play. Apart from J Cameron others that come to mind are N Riewoldt and M Richardson.

I'm not as worried as some are by his supposedly errant kicking. I reckon it's a bigger issue in front of goal than it is in the midfield.

 

[TDDogs]

Here’s an idea, why don’t we try him in the ruck for a couple of games? At least he’s physical unlike Timid English

 

[Next Waiting]

In a world in which moving Naughton back to defence is a triple whammy (1.conceding after 5 years that it was a bad tactical move by Bevo, 2. running counter to Naughton's stated wishes, 3. vindicating the I-told-you-so media pundits) playing Naughton in this role is a sensible alternative and worth trying.

If it works he can do a lot of what Cameron does. It provides one of the missing links between half back and half forward, it provides a mobile crash-through big body who can operate at stoppages and even CBs and it even provides a get out target other than English for the kick-in after a behind. He can of course also drift forward to score.

Ultimately it may not end up being the answer but we had to try something new - remember Bevo's own words about the definition of insanity. The forward structure has not been a great success. It is still a work in progress and taking Naughton out of there for 60-70% of the time might give the others space to build up their own fluency and system.

So far I'd give it a C+. Certainly worth persevering with. We should give it some weeks (at least half a season) before declaring it a flop. Naughton himself will be learning this unusual role as he goes. It's not one that too many can play. Apart from J Cameron others that come to mind are N Riewoldt and M Richardson.

I'm not as worried as some are by his supposedly errant kicking. I reckon it's a bigger issue in front of goal than it is in the midfield.

Last season I suggested Marra for the role Naughts is currently playing. If anything, I'd say he has more potential than Naughts in that role. But he's likely to be a match winner in his current role once he sorts his conversion rate out.

As you mentioned in another thread, English might be a little gun shy with his history of head knocks and can't blame him really. Doesn't solve our team ruck problem though, especially if that hesitancy becomes or is likely to become the norm, as we need a physical competitor in there.

Naughts back doesn’t seem to be in Bevo's plans but it could work (well I'd like to see it tried) in combo with Tim fwd and Marra up the ground. Lobb becomes the main ruck I guess as it's not something that can be thrust upon Darcy at this point.

 

[weltschmerz]

Here’s an idea, why don’t we try him in the ruck for a couple of games? At least he’s physical unlike Timid English

195cm doesn't really cut it against most rucks.

 

[TDDogs]

195cm doesn't really cut it against most rucks.

Well our current giraffe at 208cm hasn’t cut it against most rucks too. Time to try something different