AFL 2014 ROUND 1

[HurlsMeister18]

Ok mate, like I said I am not concerned about where the goals will come from this year and even though we have shifted a couple of players from defence to forward this year I actually think the structure of our fwd line is better than the fwd line we had in place last year which was pretty dysfunctional for most of the year even though after 17 rds we were 2nd on the ladder.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

1.72 on sportsbet

I think our forward line & midfield are much stronger.

Sorry but North's midfield is not stronger than Essendon's.

Watson (who we would both agree is a better player than any of North's mids), Goddard, Heppell, Zaka, Stanton, Melksham, Myers, Hocking and Howlett.

If North had a "much stronger" midfield than that then I am amazed that you won 4 games less than us last year.

Next you will be telling me that Robbie Tarrant will end up a better player than Joe Daniher

 

[Thedeftouch]

Ok mate, like I said I am not concerned about where the goals will come from this year and even though we have shifted a couple of players from defence to forward this year I actually think the structure of our fwd line is better than the fwd line we had in place last year which was pretty dysfunctional for most of the year even though after 17 rds we were 2nd on the ladder.

How is the forward structure better this year?

 

[HurlsMeister18]

How is the forward structure better this year?

Well for starters we have two natural forwards who played junior footy as forwards in Carlisle and Daniher. Just having two natural forwards will straighten us up a hell of a lot. Hurley is a natural defender and was being played as a forward and didn't know when/where to lead.

 

[juss]

I might have a look at the Port Adelaide + line as Carlton will be without Judd.
As much as it pains me to say it, the Gold Coast + line or even H2H against us probably isn't a bad bet either, but I never bet against my own team.

 

[Jatz]

I might have a look at the Port Adelaide + line as Carlton will be without Judd.
As much as it pains me to say it, the Gold Coast + line or even H2H against us probably isn't a bad bet either, but I never bet against my own team.

Agreed about betting against my own team.

That said, if I were neutral I'd think Port were a big chance against us.

Melbourne are the other team that looks good value to me. St Kilda aren't that good and the Dees might be able to improve just enough.

 

[juss]

Agreed about betting against my own team.

That said, if I were neutral I'd think Port were a big chance against us.

Melbourne are the other team that looks good value to me. St Kilda aren't that good and the Dees might be able to improve just enough.

Coin toss game, I reckon Melbourne with a head start will be what I'll take.

 

[Jatz]

Coin toss game, I reckon Melbourne with a head start will be what I'll take.

Yeah that's probably where the smart money is. Will be interested to see how St Kilda go under Richardson.

 

[Nothing]

Coin toss game, I reckon Melbourne with a head start will be what I'll take.

Melbourne wont get a start. By bounce I think Demons start favourite, if you want them take them now (or 2 weeks ago).

 

[Lensen]

Melbourne wont get a start. By bounce I think Demons start favourite, if you want them take them now (or 2 weeks ago).

and then the bookies will get a similar round 1 gift to bulldogs v brisbane last year

 

[Nothing]

and then the bookies will get a similar round 1 gift to bulldogs v brisbane last year

That confirms it, the house is going on Melbourne.



I really think it is close to a coin toss, so I'll be on them until something changes..

 

[banana_bus]

Saints win, who kicks the goals for the Dees? (Dawes and Clark wont play)

 

[juss]

Saints win, who kicks the goals for the Dees? (Dawes and Clark wont play)

Don't see the ball going into the Saints forward line tbh, reckon the Dees will win the midfield battle which will decide the game.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Don't see the ball going into the Saints forward line tbh, reckon the Dees will win the midfield battle which will decide the game.

I reckon the midfields are pretty even. Saints have some excellent top-end talent, Montagna, Steven and Hayes backed up by some average depth.

I would personally steer clear of the Saints/Demons game, both have new coaches and neither are particularly promising teams for 2014.

edit: Montagna suspended for round 1 apparently? Changes things a little bit.

 

[Jatz]

Saints win, who kicks the goals for the Dees? (Dawes and Clark wont play)

Hogan? I assume he will be playing in their absence. I agree with Melbourne having the better midfield, especially if Montagna is out.

 

[banana_bus]

Hogan? I assume he will be playing in their absence. I agree with Melbourne having the better midfield, especially if Montagna is out.

A first gamer? Please.

Melbourne 2013 was the worst team since Fitzroy (excluding Gc + GWS). Please don't put your hard earned on them guys... They might win but it's definitely a "no bet" game.

 

[TheKanga]

I think Riewoldt will kick a bag for the Saints

 

[Jatz]

I think Riewoldt will kick a bag for the Saints

I imagine Frawley will play on him so I wouldn't have thought so. Frawley is a very good defender. If the Dees midfield can get on top it will go a long way to winning the game.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

A first gamer? Please.

Melbourne 2013 was the worst team since Fitzroy (excluding Gc + GWS). Please don't put your hard earned on them guys... They might win but it's definitely a "no bet" game.

Yep, definitely no bet. I'd challenge anyone to be able to make an argument that they could confidently predict the outcome of this game.

For one thing, neither side has had a game played in anger with their new coach.

They won a combined 7 games in 2013. The Saints were gifted a win as well when they played the GWS-version of Freo.

And St Kilda lost McEvoy, Milne, Dal Santo and Saad and won't have Gilbert or Montagna. They replaced those guys with a host of young players, most of whom are relatively unknown (Billings, Dunstan, hell even Savage, who knows how they will go, edit: unknown = unseen at AFL level).

Melbourne lost Davey and Sylvia, as well as a heap of depth including Rodan, Macdonald and Magner. They will be without Garland, Dawes and Clark. They gained Hogan, Tyson, Michie and Cross as new guys.

These teams are both new coaches, recently revamped football departments, have a host of experienced players departed and new kids in, and are both young/poor sides. Don't know why you would think about betting on this game.

 

[Jatz]

Jack Steven out for 6 weeks. Looking more and more Melbourne to me.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

Gone with Adelaide @$3.25 today after selwood an smedts are confirmed outs

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Gone with Adelaide @$3.25 today after selwood an smedts are confirmed outs

1) Where is Selwood a confirmed out? All I can find is articles re: Cats confident Selwood will play

2) Smedts only got a reprimand...

3) Why would Smedts being a confirmed out be the deciding factor anyway? He's hardly a clear best 22 player for the Cats, I would be more interested in Selwood obviously, but Christensen and Motlop being confirmed outs.

 

[Lensen]

4) why would you take literally the worst odds available

 

[Nothing]

That confirms it, the house is going on Melbourne.

I might need to borrow another house. Saints without Hayes, Steven, Montagna and a few others. Nick R is going to have to get 40 touches and kick 20 goals for Saints to have any chance.

 

[Lensen]

Saints with a start works for me