AFL 2017 - R13 - North Melbourne v St Kilda: 7:50 PM AEST Etihad Stadium

[_Mike_]

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Preview

North Melbourne can jump above the Saints with a win this evening, and become one of the many teams within a game of eighth place. In that case, the Saints obviously fail to gain on the teams that sit above them. By contrast, a Saints victory leaves them sitting outside of the eight on percentage only, and sees the ‘Roos slip a clear two games back.

North Melbourne’s 4-7 record understates their performance by about a win, according to Pythagorean wins. The ‘Roos have played in three close games, losing all three, meaning they could very well be in a similar position to Fremantle. The ‘Roos of course were the team to stop Adelaide’s unstoppable win streak, in Round 7 in Tasmania. Since then, North have been 3-2 with a percentage of 102 per cent. The team most pegged for a bottom four finish has been performing at a level beyond that. Yet, here we are, half way through the season and the ‘Roos are in the bottom four.

St Kilda have been employing Koby Stevens as a traditional tagger in recent weeks, and he will almost certainly niggle and gnaw at Higgins across the evening. Last week, Adelaide’s Rory Sloane used the tag against the Saints at stoppages, gluing himself to another St Kilda midfielder and allowing that man’s opponent a seam to break away. I’m sure Brad Scott took notes. Coach Alan Richardson acknowledges that North (4-7) are much stronger than their 15th place suggests.

Luke Dunstan will replace Steele as one of at least three changes, with Paddy McCartin (knee) and Nathan Wright (shoulder) injured. Veteran Nick Riewoldt will return from a knee injury, with Jack Lonie also getting a call up.

It will be a tight game, with plenty of tactical swings from quarter to quarter. As an added wrinkle, North Melbourne has won the duos last four games at Etihad Stadium (and six in total if we include trips to Tasmania) stretching over five seasons. The ‘Roos will make it a handful this evening.

Kiss of Death: Saints by 4

 

[Power Raid]

saints in a close one

should be a decent contest though

 

[gavaniacono]

Umps will get Roos over the line as the anti Saints conspiracy continues without comment.

 

[Bazza97]

This is a bloody hard game to tip. This is the sort of game where I can see the Saints rebounding from their poor form and win in order to keep their finals hopes alive but North are a decent side and I'm just more confident on them winning at this stage. Should be an interesting game, I'm looking forward to it.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

North by 8

 

[Americanpies]

Can't tip St Kilda after their past 4 games. Been absolute Rubbish. I think North Melbourne will benefit from the bye. A lot of these older guys that seem to be the key to them winning or losing, like Waite and Higgins will be fresh after the rest.

 

[Plugger35]

Umps will get Roos over the line as the anti Saints conspiracy continues without comment.

Well North are ranked 2nd for free kicks this season and we're ranked 15th so there's a good chance they'll be winning the free kick count tonight.

 

[HarryZLA]

Steele being dropped blows my mind, and this is take 15 for Lonie.

I actually just don't care if we win or not after these changes.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

This is a bloody hard game to tip. This is the sort of game where I can see the Saints rebounding from their poor form and win in order to keep their finals hopes alive but North are a decent side and I'm just more confident on them winning at this stage. Should be an interesting game, I'm looking forward to it.

Very few saints fans have any confidence in our game plan atm.

For us to win we must

• Kick the ball to our forwards advantage and not just bomb it on their heads every ****ing kick
• Stick the tackles
• Ensure that Webster and Roberton have freedom down back to rebound well
• Get the ball to the outside runners

 

[joelsyt]

Steele being dropped blows my mind, and this is take 15 for Lonie.

I actually just don't care if we win or not after these changes.

Has Steele been out of form? I was very surprised St Kilda dropped him. Haven't watched St Kilda much this year but from what I have watched Steele was playing well.

 

[juss]

Saints have to stand up here, I'm tipping them for no other reason than they are "due" to make a statement.

 

[HarryZLA]

Has Steele been out of form? I was very surprised St Kilda dropped him. Haven't watched St Kilda much this year but from what I have watched Steele was playing well.

He had a slow game last week but so did 80% of the team.

Previous 5 games averages: 23 disposals 12 contested 8 tackles

For a young developing inside midfielder I don't really know what more you would want. Dunstan and Lonie have been unable to prove any form outside of the VFL all year.

 

[Bazza97]

Very few saints fans have any confidence in our game plan atm.

For us to win we must

• Kick the ball to our forwards advantage and not just bomb it on their heads every ******* kick
• Stick the tackles
• Ensure that Webster and Roberton have freedom down back to rebound well
• Get the ball to the outside runners

It's a big game for the Saints and it is understandable that the game plan and the confidence in Richardson and the coaching staff is being brought into question. Finals would be slim if the Saints lose but gee if they put in another sub-par performance like they have in the past few weeks, serious questions will start to be asked on St Kilda particularly on Richardson and the coaching staff. However, I think this could be the game that gets St Kilda back on track but I'm just not confident enough to tip them.

 

[joelsyt]

He had a slow game last week but so did 80% of the team.

Previous 5 games averages: 23 disposals 12 contested 8 tackles

For a young developing inside midfielder I don't really know what more you would want. Dunstan and Lonie have been unable to prove any form outside of the VFL all year.

Judging by those stats he shouldn't have been dropped, I like Richo but why would he drop a young kid averaging those stats? It confuses me.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

It's a big game for the Saints and it is understandable that the game plan and the confidence in Richardson and the coaching staff is being brought into question. Finals would be slim if the Saints lose but gee if they put in another sub-par performance like they have in the past few weeks, serious questions will start to be asked on St Kilda particularly on Richardson and the coaching staff. However, I think this could be the game that gets St Kilda back on track but I'm just not confident enough to tip them.

I think our assistant coaches need more of bake then Richo atm

Hamill has made our forward structures quite idiotic and our forwards have no spacing and tend to always be close to each other, Adam Kingsley has been the midfield coach for a long time at the club but only 2 players have had significant improvement under him and Danny Sexton who is our "head of strategy" needs to go to so Richo can get a better man as his main assistant coach.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Judging by those stats he shouldn't have been dropped, I like Richo but why would he drop a young kid averaging those stats? It confuses me.

It confused a lot of us that decision

He had an average game last week but on the whole has been good for us so far.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

The Josh Kelly Cup!

 

[Bazza97]

I think our assistant coaches need more of bake then Richo atm

Hamill has made our forward structures quite idiotic and our forwards have no spacing and tend to always be close to each other, Adam Kingsley has been the midfield coach for a long time at the club but only 2 players have had significant improvement under him and Danny Sexton who is our "head of strategy" needs to go to so Richo can get a better man as his main assistant coach.

Yeah good point, regarding the assistants. I get the feeling someone like Hamill is in the position he is in because of his past history as a player at St Kilda. I think he would have a fair bit of knowledge regarding individual footy smarts playing as a forward but perhaps he lacks the knowledge of the modern day tactics of forwards working in a team system. I'm purely guessing here regarding Hamill though, but the system the Saints have had up forward hasn't been working as they would've liked so I think he should be under a bit of scrutiny. Will be interesting to see how St Kilda fares tonight and for the rest of the year.

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

The Josh Kelly Cup!

Or the Nick Dal Santo miniaturized trophy.

 

[Lsta062]

I am going with North Melbourne by 12 points.

 

[puntking]

The Josh Kelly Cup!

lol very true

 

[_Mike_]

This game could very well go either way, but Im tipping a close game with North to win by less than a kick.

 

[Americanpies]

Saints have to stand up here, I'm tipping them for no other reason than they are "due" to make a statement.

why haven't they stood up in the past month? I don't think they are due for anything but more losses.

 

[Americanpies]

Judging by those stats he shouldn't have been dropped, I like Richo but why would he drop a young kid averaging those stats? It confuses me.

Could be something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. Maybe he's been turning up late for training or partied too hard on their bye week.

 

[Unique Name]

How good would it be if Kelly tweeted out that he'll sign with whoever wins.

Would be a bloodbath.

Roo back in will lift the confidence of the Saints.