AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Johnny Bananas]

And yet today you are bigger than ever,

Don't confuse the afterglow of a premiership victory with the new normal. If a premiership victory always meant lasting off field success, the entry of the Suns wouldn't have harmed the Lions at all given they had three premierships within the past ten years.

and there is also a second club which, while struggling on field, is growing along fine off field and doing wonders for participation and interest in the gold coast.

Yes they are, but remember how much they've had to struggle to get to this point. There were plenty of absolute halfwits in the media and here on BF who wanted to take away their licence at various points in the past 15 years. Those people should never be listened to ever again on any matters to do with expansion.

I am not so sure that a third Brisbane club is that bad an idea... yes it will hurt the lions in the short and perhaps medium term, but long term it would make the league and code stronger. And that's the point.

Sure, in the long term. But you need to survive the short and medium term to make it in the long term. The Lions are not at that point yet, and won't be at least until the stadium question is sorted.

 

[Fire]

Don't confuse the afterglow of a premiership victory with the new normal.

I didn't? I just said you were bigger than ever.
Yes, you have obviously ebbed and flowed with your ladder position as all teams do, but over the past 20 years since your three-peat, you have grown. And in that time you have had the suns move in. So footy, over SEQ, is much stronger than just the Lions now.

Yes they are, but remember how much they've had to struggle to get to this point.

Have they though? On field sure, but have they really off? They seem to be kicking all the goals they need to be.

There were plenty of absolute halfwits in the media and here on BF who wanted to take away their licence at various points in the past 15 years. Those people should never be listened to ever again on any matters to do with expansion.

There still are, and they are ignorant to what is actually happening and the strategy. Complaints about costs and confusion with on field success just show they have NFI. We both understand this.

Sure, in the long term. But you need to survive the short and medium term to make it in the long term. The Lions are not at that point yet, and won't be at least until the stadium question is sorted.

The Lions aren't going anywhere. Realistically you would be looking for a ~2030 entry anyway, so we aren't talking about tomorrow. So if the stadium isn't sorted by then, then you probably need the pull of another club to help it get sorted. 22 games is twice the case of 11.

Look, I am not putting Brisbane 2 above Canberra. I am really hoping for a Canberra team for 20. But I would much rather see a second Brisbane team over a third Perth one.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I didn't? I just said you were bigger than ever.

Did you mean that this is a short-term flash in the pan then?

Yes, you have obviously ebbed and flowed with your ladder position as all teams do, but over the past 20 years since your three-peat, you have grown.

No, in the past eight years we've grown. In the 13 years before that we went significantly backwards.

And in that time you have had the suns move in. So footy, over SEQ, is much stronger than just the Lions now.

Of course it is. I never disputed it'll make the game stronger in SEQ. It'll just screw the Lions for a decade to begin with and take a big chunk of our membership. If you thought the impact of the Suns on our membership numbers was significant, wait until it's another team within Brisbane itself, the impact will be greater because the geographic separation will be shorter.

You can argue the Suns were filling a genuine need for more football in SEQ and a geographic need for a separate city to have its own team. You can't for a second Brisbane team, at least not right now.

Have they though? On field sure, but have they really off?

Yes, they trained in tin sheds for years. And you can't just hand wave away on-field performance. They've been a joke on the field and that contributes significantly to their perception off the field. Their attendance figures were stagnant between 2015 and 2023, even adjusting for Covid. It looks like they've started to turn that around under Hardwick, but the only definite success story about the Suns so far is their academy. If you believe the biggest criteria for off-field success is to create more players at the grassroots and more draftable prospects, the AFL can accomplish that by providing more grassroots funding and setting up and running more academies themselves. It doesn't require another AFL club in Brisbane.

There still are, and they are ignorant to what is actually happening and the strategy. Complaints about costs and confusion with on field success just show they have NFI. We both understand this.

We do indeed. But even if they have NFI, perception still matters in terms of winning a local fanbase. This isn't Victoria, Queenslanders are fairweather fans, especially when it comes to a game that isn't firmly embedded in culture and prominent in the media. The Lions rose and fell and rose again, not just on the ladder but in attendance and membership. Brisbane Roar might be an even better example, had some level of prominence and sold out Lang Park when they were hosting and winning grand finals, but are pretty irrelevant nowadays.

The Lions aren't going anywhere.

Well, actually, we may be off to Carrara or Springfield for up to 5 years, depending if the state government decides to redevelop the Gabba and not build a temporary facility to house games during construction. That's looking like the most likely outcome at this point.

Realistically you would be looking for a ~2030 entry anyway, so we aren't talking about tomorrow. So if the stadium isn't sorted by then, then you probably need the pull of another club to help it get sorted. 22 games is twice the case of 11.

If the stadium isn't sorted by 2030, it won't happen. The state government, regardless of party, doesn't care much about AFL (or even cricket). The current push is only getting any traction because the Olympics will require a new athletics facility anyway, and the Lions have the potential to give it a long term use instead of collecting dust like previous Olympic stadia. If not for that, they'd put in the minimum to stop the Gabba collapsing or looking like a third world stadium, and tell the AFL to be happy with that.

2030 is far too late for anything to change in Olympics planning. Whether the Olympic stadium is suitable for the Lions after the games or not is based on political wrangling now, not in speculation of a second team several years down the track. There is no pull of a second club right now. And the AFL won't promise a second club without a new stadium. Tasmania showed how they'll do things from now on.

At this stage it looks like the new Queensland government might redevelop the Gabba for the Olympics and send us to Carrara for multiple years. We'll likely be disrupted during 2032 itself, too. That's a terrible environment for the Lions to be dealing with new competition in, because of the lack of stability. It'd be much better if it happened in the late 2030s after the club has been able to establish itself at the new stadium for at least a few years.

Look, I am not putting Brisbane 2 above Canberra. I am really hoping for a Canberra team for 20. But I would much rather see a second Brisbane team over a third Perth one.

Wherever there is demand for a team and it won't damage the existing ones badly, can be a good idea for expansion. I think both the Eagles and Dockers are better placed to handle added local competition than the Lions are.

 

[GC2015]

Is North Brisbane the name you'd go for GC2015 ? I think having Brisbane in the title is important, but do people that high up consider themselves as still a part of 'Brisbane'? And let's not go with another acronym like gws ffs, arguably the dumbest marketing move in history.

Probably. I think it's important to have the word 'Brisbane' in the name. Knowing how Brisbane people are from my experiences with them, they want to get behind a team that represents their city. Do people in the northern suburbs of Brisbane consider themselves Brisbanites? I would say yes. Do people from Moreton Bay or the Sunny Coast consider themselves Brisbane people? No, but it's like it was before the Gold Coast got it's own team. There were Lions fans based here back then because it was the closest we were ever going to get to our own team back then and I think you'd see the same thing in the Sunshine Coast/Moreton Bay.

So in this scenario, the Lions will have more competition from three NRL teams, and the AFL should respond by... making them compete with another AFL team too? I disagree strongly. The Lions would need to bolster their fanbase in that scenario, not lose a chunk of it like they did to the Suns.

The AFL shouldn't be trying to counter every move the NRL makes. They should be doing what makes sense for them, and irrespective of the NRL. The best moves for the AFL are bringing teams to places with a decent fanbase but no team as yet (Tasmania, Canberra), or places where their cup runneth over so much that they can create a new team without sending the existing ones into the doldrums (WA3).

I again raise the spectre of what happened to the Lions after the Suns came in: years of financial decline, falling from having a decent asset base to being in over $13 million in negative equity at one stage. They've only just come out of that and need to consolidate, especially with the looming prospect of having to relocate for a few years if the Gabba gets rebuilt.

You're only disagreeing because you're a Lions fan and you fear what it would mean for the Lions if they fell away. I think increasing the likelihood of Brisbane city participating in the finals every year outweighs the risk of the Lions losing a portion of their fanbase (which isn't a huge issue for the AFL because a fan is a fan regardless of who they support). The most amount of growth for the game occurs in September and being completely reliant on one team for growth is a risky strategy. Every other state has the two team model that works well - the Crows fall away after the 2017 GF, Port steps up. See what I mean?

If you're going to blame all of Brisbane's problems from 2010 onwards on the Suns then you're way off the mark. Recruiting Fevola in 2010 set your team back years and Michael Voss has admitted that a huge problem when he was coach of the Lions was the lack of resources he had access to. The establishment of the Suns wasn't the major reason for those years of struggles and deep down you know that.

Think of it this way, had there been a second Brisbane team competing in the finals while the Lions fell away between 2010-2018 then the game wouldn't have suffered anywhere near as much as it did during those years.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You're only disagreeing because you're a Lions fan and you fear what it would mean for the Lions if they fell away.

This is useless ad hominem. If you want to dispute my points, fine, but don't try to psychoanalyse me.

Every other state has the two team model that works well - the Crows fall away after the 2017 GF, Port steps up. See what I mean?

Queensland has a two team model too.

If you're going to blame all of Brisbane's problems from 2010 onwards on the Suns then you're way off the mark.

You're now adding a straw man argument to the ad hominem. I never once said this, you're making stuff up.

Think of it this way, had there been a second Brisbane team competing in the finals while the Lions fell away between 2010-2018 then the game wouldn't have suffered anywhere near as much as it did during those years.

Great, both teams would have struggled to get 15 000 to a game.

 

[PhatBoy]

Probably. I think it's important to have the word 'Brisbane' in the name. Knowing how Brisbane people are from my experiences with them, they want to get behind a team that represents their city. Do people in the northern suburbs of Brisbane consider themselves Brisbanites? I would say yes. Do people from Moreton Bay or the Sunny Coast consider themselves Brisbane people? No, but it's like it was before the Gold Coast got it's own team. There were Lions fans based here back then because it was the closest we were ever going to get to our own team back then and I think you'd see the same thing in the Sunshine Coast/Moreton Bay.


You're only disagreeing because you're a Lions fan and you fear what it would mean for the Lions if they fell away. I think increasing the likelihood of Brisbane city participating in the finals every year outweighs the risk of the Lions losing a portion of their fanbase (which isn't a huge issue for the AFL because a fan is a fan regardless of who they support). The most amount of growth for the game occurs in September and being completely reliant on one team for growth is a risky strategy. Every other state has the two team model that works well - the Crows fall away after the 2017 GF, Port steps up. See what I mean?

If you're going to blame all of Brisbane's problems from 2010 onwards on the Suns then you're way off the mark. Recruiting Fevola in 2010 set your team back years and Michael Voss has admitted that a huge problem when he was coach of the Lions was the lack of resources he had access to. The establishment of the Suns wasn't the major reason for those years of struggles and deep down you know that.

Think of it this way, had there been a second Brisbane team competing in the finals while the Lions fell away between 2010-2018 then the game wouldn't have suffered anywhere near as much as it did during those years.

1. Why would he not have his own club’s interests at heart

2. Is it really your place to tell him the sole reason he’s saying exactly what he’s saying? Yeah it might or might not be part of it but he’s used pretty decent reasoning with everything that he’s said. Needless thing to say realistically.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

1. Why would he not have his own club’s interests at heart

2. Is it really your place to tell him the sole reason he’s saying exactly what he’s saying? Yeah it might or might not be part of it but he’s used pretty decent reasoning with everything that he’s said. Needless thing to say realistically.

Some people are real know-it-alls.

 

[GC2015]

This is useless ad hominem. If you want to dispute my points, fine, but don't try to psychoanalyse me.


Queensland has a two team model too.


You're now adding a straw man argument to the ad hominem. I never once said this, you're making stuff up.


Great, both teams would have struggled to get 15 000 to a game.

Fair enough. Probably went too far with that response. My apologies.

All I was trying to say was that I think there's merit to having two teams in Brisbane to avoid the uncompetitive years we saw for close to a decade in the 2010s. That obviously comes with potential negatives for both Queensland teams, so it's subjective as to whether it's worth it. I'd like to see it, but I can accept others may not.

1. Why would he not have his own club’s interests at heart

2. Is it really your place to tell him the sole reason he’s saying exactly what he’s saying? Yeah it might or might not be part of it but he’s used pretty decent reasoning with everything that he’s said. Needless thing to say realistically.

Nothing wrong with having your club's best interests at heart. The AFL may see it differently and will do what they feel is in their best interests, not necessarily Brisbane's or any other club.

Fair. Again, went too far. Overstepped the boundary. My bad.

 

[PhatBoy]

Fair enough. Probably went too far with that response. My apologies.

All I was trying to say was that I think there's merit to having two teams in Brisbane to avoid the uncompetitive years we saw for close to a decade in the 2010s. That obviously comes with potential negatives for both Queensland teams, so it's subjective as to whether it's worth it. I'd like to see it, but I can accept others may not.


Nothing wrong with having your club's best interests at heart. The AFL may see it differently and will do what they feel is in their best interests, not necessarily Brisbane's or any other club.

Fair. Again, went too far. Overstepped the boundary. My bad.

Kudos

In an expansion market like Perth no one would ever need to worry about any viability of their existing club in the short or long term, really. The teams themselves have nothing to worry about and the fans of them don’t either. Really aside from the rivalry aspect of a new team I don’t think you’d piss anyone off. It’s not quite the same for a Brisbane side who aren’t going to disappear or anything drastic but could stagnate or lose some of their traction so fan reticence is a little more understandable I would think.

 

[Heardy_101]

I spent 1.5 weeks in Queensland back in April whilst on the road, and had my car radio tuned to the various local channels, especially whilst driving up to Cairns.

Whenever the sports news reports came on, with the exception of the Townsville station, they spent more time talking about the local Aussie rules competitions than they did about NRL or League in general.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Fair enough. Probably went too far with that response. My apologies.

Thank you.

All I was trying to say was that I think there's merit to having two teams in Brisbane to avoid the uncompetitive years we saw for close to a decade in the 2010s. That obviously comes with potential negatives for both Queensland teams, so it's subjective as to whether it's worth it. I'd like to see it, but I can accept others may not.

It could be worth it one day. I just don't think it is until the Lions have their stadium sorted. And even then I wonder whether Queensland footy would be better off with Brisbane 2 or a Sunshine Coast team.

Nothing wrong with having your club's best interests at heart. The AFL may see it differently and will do what they feel is in their best interests, not necessarily Brisbane's or any other club.

The AFL has an interest in all of its northern clubs not falling into a long term decline and needing more financial support. Two clubs limiting each others' growth isn't necessarily in the AFLs best interests.

 

[Bjo187]

Whilst I agree there would be some teething problems, if you look at both Brisbane and Sydney, they have really come along in popularity since the suns and giants have entered the competition. I think if anything, they are bigger than they would have been had those 2 rival clubs not entered the competition.

Overall I'm more for a Perth 3 man, but I can see the potential attraction in Brisbane 2. I would only bring in Brisbane 2 once the suns are established and making some good money though, I still maintain you can't have too many expansion clubs in non diehard areas at the same time, 3 would be hard to manage.

 

[RedV3x]

Whilst I agree there would be some teething problems, if you look at both Brisbane and Sydney, they have really come along in popularity since the suns and giants have entered the competition. I think if anything, they are bigger than they would have been had those 2 rival clubs not entered the competition.

Totally agree.

I would only bring in Brisbane 2 once the suns are established and making some good money though.

I was wondering why you stated this.

I still maintain you can't have too many expansion clubs in non diehard areas at the same time, 3 would be hard to manage.

Then I see that you're suggesting it's a financial load problem.
As for the debate as to the impact of a North Brisbane AFC then the answer is very simple.
The AFL as they have done and will continue to do is that the AFL will do a survey of on the dispersion of the Lions
members and probably a survey of the proposed catchment area.

I was at the SCG for the Swan's VFL games and whilst undertaking a survey I asked a few questions.
The were asking the obvious questions like why were you attending this game but i found out
that they had already estimated that there were more than 250,000 Australian football fans in Sydney.

One element nobody has discussed is the strength of the local leagues in North Brisnane.
The attendances at the SFL could hardly be called crowds for the most part but the grand final crowd is a good guide.
The very irregular SFL crowds were significantly lost to regular SCG attendances.

What are the leagues and clubs like in Brisbane North ?
They can give some guide.

 

[Bjo187]

Totally agree.



I was wondering why you stated this.



Then I see that you're suggesting it's a financial load problem.
As for the debate as to the impact of a North Brisbane AFC then the answer is very simple.
The AFL as they have done and will continue to do is that the AFL will do a survey of on the dispersion of the Lions
members and probably a survey of the proposed catchment area.

I was at the SCG for the Swan's VFL games and whilst undertaking a survey I asked a few questions.
The were asking the obvious questions like why were you attending this game but i found out
that they had already estimated that there were more than 250,000 Australian football fans in Sydney.

One element nobody has discussed is the strength of the local leagues in North Brisnane.
The attendances at the SFL could hardly be called crowds for the most part but the grand final crowd is a good guide.
The very irregular SFL crowds were significantly lost to regular SCG attendances.

What are the leagues and clubs like in Brisbane North ?
They can give some guide.

Yeah just too much of a financial burden in regards to distributions from head office. It doesn't help that the afl won't allow these new northern clubs to have a leagues club type set up, to financially support themselves till they become financially viable.

Also if one is faltering, it's harder to throw more resources into it, when you're splitting your efforts across 3 non diehard markets at once, they need full focus imo.

With regards to afl supporters in Sydney, that sounds about right back then, as I read recently there are 250k AFL only fans in Sydney now. This means to the exclusion of any other sport, these people only follow and support the AFL. So the number would obviously be bigger when including someone that likes say nrl and cricket as well as AFL.

Now that tells us the number is more than significant enough to support 2 teams. However, it also tells us the Giants at least haven't been able to get a large portion of those afl only fans in Sydney, to become giants fans and give up their southern clubs they support (or at least to support the giants as a second team and go to games). This should be a focus area for them to build that core base of fans, because you'd assume at least 100k of those afl only fans actually live in western sydney.

There may be the same issue in Brisbane, a lot of afl fans, but will they go for the new North Brisbane club? Or just stick with simply following their big southern clubs. The fact they can now watch their big southern club on tv every week from their couch doesn't help.

 

[RedV3x]

However, it also tells us the Giants at least haven't been able to get a large portion of those afl only fans in Sydney, to become giants fans and give up their southern clubs they support (or at least to support the giants as a second team and go to games).

Not quite so simple. Here are the inaugural members of the NSWFL in 1903
Notice how the West is not evident.

• East Sydney FC
• Ashfield Electorate FC
• North Shore FC
• North Sydney FC
• South Sydney FC
• YMCA FC
• Paddington FC
• Redfern FC
• West Sydney FC
• Newtown FC
• Sydney FC
  
  

There may be the same issue in Brisbane,

There are some big clubs in Brisbane North.

 

[Taper]

When will the AFL stop giving concessions to the QLD clubs? QLD is now the third biggest market for Australian Football behind Victoria and WA as participation numbers and TV ratings show.

 

[Bjo187]

When will the AFL stop giving concessions to the QLD clubs? QLD is now the third biggest market for Australian Football behind Victoria and WA as participation numbers and TV ratings show.

Talent producing wise they're ahead of w.a these days as the second best state imo. Next year they'll pay equivalent value though, blame the weak clubs in the top 4 that wouldn't bid on Ashcroft.

 

[Taper]

Talent producing wise they're ahead of w.a these days as the second best state imo. Next year they'll pay equivalent value though, blame the weak clubs in the top 4 that wouldn't bid on Ashcroft.

QLD will go past WA soon in terms of participation numbers and TV ratings, which is why I don't agree with the AFL continuing to give concessions to the Lions and Suns.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Talent producing wise they're ahead of w.a these days as the second best state imo. Next year they'll pay equivalent value though, blame the weak clubs in the top 4 that wouldn't bid on Ashcroft.

Ashcroft was not an academy player, he was a father/son pick.

 

[Morbidly_Obese]

Ashcroft was not an academy player, he was a father/son pick.

I think he played for the Suns academy