2014 End of Season AFL Power Rankings
1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (+1)
5 Sydney (-2)
6 West Coast (-)
7 Kangaroos (+1)
8 Port Adelaide (-1)
9 Gold Coast (-)
10 Richmond (-)
11 Melbourne (-)
12 GWS (-)
13 Carlton (-)
14 Essendon (-)
15 Collingwood (-)
16 Bulldogs (-)
17 Brisbane (-)
18 St Kilda (-)
The AFL Power Rankings are back in 2014 for their fourth successive year and hopefully this season turns out to be more about the football than anything else related off-field. Many of you already know how the rankings work and many still haven't worked it out after all this time, but fear not, I will do my best to explain the power rankings method yet again. There have also been some changes to the rankings this year, the trade period is now calculated in the rankings points minus the draft, (for now).
Win or lose, these rankings make me want to drink more booze
The rankings are about expected performance. So in other words, each team is expected to win or lose by a specific margin depending on the strength of their opponent. Once the predicted margin is calculated, if a team does better than the expected margin they gain ranking points, if they do worse than the expected margin, they lose ranking points. Simple?
For example, on Friday night Fremantle is expected to beat Collingwood by 28 points, if Fremantle win by only 1 point, it is likely they will lose their number one ranking position with the loss in ranking points. On the other hand Collingwood despite losing the game would gain ranking points, a significant amount and enough to push them up two spots.
Better teams have more weighting, lesser teams have less
The power rankings are designed with premiership potential in mind. For the last three years, the top two ranked teams have gone on to play of in the Grand Final. And only in 2012, did the top ranked team not take the premiership. But as Paul Roos said On the Couch after the Grand Final last year, Hawthorn was the best team of the last two years. The rankings already knew this. The point is that the rankings formula is designed to show how teams would fair in the finals if they all played on equal footing this week.
It's important to understand that teams and players do no play at full capacity each week, they save their best efforts for the important games. This is why performances against better teams hold more weight and why a loss to GWS by a huge margin will still not mean that much in context of the season as a significant loss to Fremantle. If you want to win the premiership you will have to get through Ross Lyon's team and not the Giants.
The changes
As some of you already know the rankings take into account how strong on paper each team is. If there are significant outs, these are calculated and the expected performance is diminished. So how a team fairs in the trade period will theoretically have an effect on performance based on the personnel that has arrived and departed. Of course sometimes this feels like guess work, but one should assume that players like Thomas, Franklin and Sylvia will improve their respective sides and weaken their previous.
Where are the ranking's points? How are they exactly calculated? How the **** is Adelaide third and Port Adelaide 14th?
I don't release the points because these are the best rankings system on the planet and therefore I don't want someone who is either as clever or move clever than me (unlikely) to deduce how they are calculated. They're also used as a betting tool which will win you money every year. Just be content you get them for free. Also it's much more exciting this way as it's harder for you to predict how the rankings will turn out from week to week.
Having said all that, even if I could be bothered to explain the exact method of the algorithms it would take many, many pages of complex elaboration, and most people don't have the time nor the inclination to care about such things. But that doesn't mean I am going to leave you in complete darkness. Here is in point form the criteria in which the rankings and predicted margins are calculated:
Each of those of these have different formula's and weightings and are tracked and recorded over many years. I spend more time on rankings than most people ever do on any subject at university. In other words I have more than just a PhD in this field of study.
I watch every game
That's correct. I watch 207 games, or over 400 hours of AFL footage in a year. Why? The previous mentioned points aren't the only things taken into account. Every game I record the score worm to see how close the game is. For example, if Collingwood tonight were to lose by 30 points but were within a goal for nearly the whole game except the last ten minutes, it would be calculated as a better performance if they lost by 24 points but they were losing by 40 points up until ten minutes to go and then piled three goals in the last quarter. The reason is because teams tend to put their foot off the accelerator as soon as the game is over, while also sometimes the pressure of not having to win the game is not there for the losing team any more.
But there is one bigger weighting...
Umpiring. I review every possible umpiring decision and a weighting is calculated based on a metric and formula created to theoretically get to as close to what the most likely score would've been had the umpiring been 100% accurate. For example, a decision late in the game which wins the game for one team in the goal square is obviously worth more than one in the first quarter on a wing. The metric calculates:
And I never get it wrong, I have a PhD in this as well now.
Money making, crystal balls and one benevolent guru
You don't have to take my word for all above mentioned, each week the rankings are posted and they are there fore all to see. They've been posted for the last three years and the threads are all here on Bigfooty. You will see that it has beaten in tipping (although it's not specifically designed for this) every other established tipping model in Australia. They also beat the betting market each year, and of course most importantly they do a very good job of predicting premiership potential. For example, most rankings didn't even have Fremantle in the top two ranked teams last year at any stage whatsoever, not even after the Grand Final, the AFL Power Rankings had them already at first as early as mid-season.
This week's rankings explained
So there was no games this week but the rankings have changed from last year because of the trades.
Hawthorn (2nd) lose Buddy but Fremantle (1st) gain some good players and there was already little difference between the two. Yes McEvoy is a good pick but Buddy is worth a lot more and they had to also give up Savage. It's the Dockers flag to lose at this stage.
There is a large gap between the top two and the rest of the competition, but you wondering now how Adelaide (3rd) has jumped up one spot to third. Geelong (4th) have lost a massive amount of experienced players while Adelaide gained some key players. The Crows performances last year against the other top three ranked teams could only be matched by those teams themselves and they are now expected to finish in top four this year.
The Kangaroos (6th) jump to their highest ranking position ever, which they were once back in round three of 2012. They picked up a few handy players while Collingwood (9th), the Suns (8th) and Richmond (7th) all lost experienced players. Gold Coast is expected to make the finals for the first time this year with 13 wins.
St Kilda (12th) is obviously looking to rebuild but don't expect them to win the wooden spoon like two-thirds of Herald Sun readers voted this week in a poll. Don't forget their last two performances against last year's runner-up and now the top ranked team in the AFL was very good. Carlton move up to 11th and are expected to be on top of the ladder for at least the first eight rounds were they are predicted to go undefeated until they meet Eddie Betts and Adelaide in round 10.
So nobody expects West Coast (16th) to win the premiership this year but many still have them in the eight. They should worry about not getting the wooden spoon this year along with Essendon (13th).
2014 AFL Power Rankings
1 Fremantle (+1)
2 Hawthorn (-1)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (-1)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Kangaroos (+3)
7 Richmond (-1)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Collingwood (-2)
10 Brisbane (+1)
11 Carlton (+1)
12 St Kilda (-2)
13 Essendon (-)
14 Port Adelaide (+1)
15 Bulldogs (-1)
16 West Coast (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 GWS (-)
Match previews
Collingwood (9th) vs Fremantle (1st), ES, 7:50pm, Friday
Collingwood in the last two seasons have been the most overrated side by punters and guess who has been the most underrated in the same time? You guessed it, Fremantle. Collingwood have beaten the betting lines less than one third of the time during that period while Fremantle did so two-thirds of the time. Expecting a close game? Fremantle should win comfortably.
GWS (18th) vs Sydney (5th), SPO, 4:40pm, Saturday
Yawn. Well, let's hope not but unfortunately GWS still don't have the experience to do much here. Surely Sydney won't lose this one but the rankings predict an even closer margin than the bookies. Is everyone expecting Buddy to fire? It's not at the SCG so the Swans won't be at their best, especially for round one.
Gold Coast (8th) vs Richmond (7th), MS, 6:40pm, Saturday
The ranking predict this to be the closest game of the round with the Suns getting up by two points. The biggest weighting here is the home ground advantage, Metricon has now become a bit of a fortress for the Suns, their comfortable playing there and the crowd gets into the game. Pick the Suns and start your tipping ahead of the rest.
Carlton (11th) vs Port Adelaide (14th), ES, 7:40pm, Sunday
What a way to finish off the week with a massive game. Either way we are going to know a lot about how ready these teams are to start the season but you have to expect Carlton to win at home against Port Adelaide, and as the rankings suggest they are just better.
Betting Tips
This year the betting tips will be a little different, we're betting on all of the games! Also the amounts will be increased in some games. If you've been following it since 2011 you should have a bit of superannuation fund going.
Collingwood vs Fremantle (-7.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Luxbet
Gold Coast vs Richmond (+14.5) - $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Gold Coast vs Richmond (+12.5) - $1 @ $2 Topsport
Carlton vs Port Adelaide (-8.5) - $1 @ $2 Topsport
GWS vs Sydney – Handicap (+50.5) - $1 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Tips for Round 1
Fremantle
Sydney
Gold Coast
Carlton
Long term tips
Adelaide Top 4 $1 @ $6.75 Sportsbet
Fremantle Premiers $1 @ $5.4 Betfair
Fremantle/Hawthorn GF Quinella $1 @ $11 Sportsbet
Gold Coast Final 8 $1 @ $4 Betstar
West Coast Miss top 8 $2 @ $2.05 Tomwaterhouse
Last year's AFL Power Rankings thread.
1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (+1)
5 Sydney (-2)
6 West Coast (-)
7 Kangaroos (+1)
8 Port Adelaide (-1)
9 Gold Coast (-)
10 Richmond (-)
11 Melbourne (-)
12 GWS (-)
13 Carlton (-)
14 Essendon (-)
15 Collingwood (-)
16 Bulldogs (-)
17 Brisbane (-)
18 St Kilda (-)
The AFL Power Rankings are back in 2014 for their fourth successive year and hopefully this season turns out to be more about the football than anything else related off-field. Many of you already know how the rankings work and many still haven't worked it out after all this time, but fear not, I will do my best to explain the power rankings method yet again. There have also been some changes to the rankings this year, the trade period is now calculated in the rankings points minus the draft, (for now).
Win or lose, these rankings make me want to drink more booze
The rankings are about expected performance. So in other words, each team is expected to win or lose by a specific margin depending on the strength of their opponent. Once the predicted margin is calculated, if a team does better than the expected margin they gain ranking points, if they do worse than the expected margin, they lose ranking points. Simple?
For example, on Friday night Fremantle is expected to beat Collingwood by 28 points, if Fremantle win by only 1 point, it is likely they will lose their number one ranking position with the loss in ranking points. On the other hand Collingwood despite losing the game would gain ranking points, a significant amount and enough to push them up two spots.
Better teams have more weighting, lesser teams have less
The power rankings are designed with premiership potential in mind. For the last three years, the top two ranked teams have gone on to play of in the Grand Final. And only in 2012, did the top ranked team not take the premiership. But as Paul Roos said On the Couch after the Grand Final last year, Hawthorn was the best team of the last two years. The rankings already knew this. The point is that the rankings formula is designed to show how teams would fair in the finals if they all played on equal footing this week.
It's important to understand that teams and players do no play at full capacity each week, they save their best efforts for the important games. This is why performances against better teams hold more weight and why a loss to GWS by a huge margin will still not mean that much in context of the season as a significant loss to Fremantle. If you want to win the premiership you will have to get through Ross Lyon's team and not the Giants.
The changes
As some of you already know the rankings take into account how strong on paper each team is. If there are significant outs, these are calculated and the expected performance is diminished. So how a team fairs in the trade period will theoretically have an effect on performance based on the personnel that has arrived and departed. Of course sometimes this feels like guess work, but one should assume that players like Thomas, Franklin and Sylvia will improve their respective sides and weaken their previous.
Where are the ranking's points? How are they exactly calculated? How the **** is Adelaide third and Port Adelaide 14th?
I don't release the points because these are the best rankings system on the planet and therefore I don't want someone who is either as clever or move clever than me (unlikely) to deduce how they are calculated. They're also used as a betting tool which will win you money every year. Just be content you get them for free. Also it's much more exciting this way as it's harder for you to predict how the rankings will turn out from week to week.
Having said all that, even if I could be bothered to explain the exact method of the algorithms it would take many, many pages of complex elaboration, and most people don't have the time nor the inclination to care about such things. But that doesn't mean I am going to leave you in complete darkness. Here is in point form the criteria in which the rankings and predicted margins are calculated:
- Rankings points/rankings position
- Form
- Injuries/suspensions
- Home ground advantage
- Historical match-ups
- Travels/byes/shorter and longer breaks
Each of those of these have different formula's and weightings and are tracked and recorded over many years. I spend more time on rankings than most people ever do on any subject at university. In other words I have more than just a PhD in this field of study.
I watch every game
That's correct. I watch 207 games, or over 400 hours of AFL footage in a year. Why? The previous mentioned points aren't the only things taken into account. Every game I record the score worm to see how close the game is. For example, if Collingwood tonight were to lose by 30 points but were within a goal for nearly the whole game except the last ten minutes, it would be calculated as a better performance if they lost by 24 points but they were losing by 40 points up until ten minutes to go and then piled three goals in the last quarter. The reason is because teams tend to put their foot off the accelerator as soon as the game is over, while also sometimes the pressure of not having to win the game is not there for the losing team any more.
But there is one bigger weighting...
Umpiring. I review every possible umpiring decision and a weighting is calculated based on a metric and formula created to theoretically get to as close to what the most likely score would've been had the umpiring been 100% accurate. For example, a decision late in the game which wins the game for one team in the goal square is obviously worth more than one in the first quarter on a wing. The metric calculates:
- Position on ground
- Score differential
- Time in game
- Successive errors
And I never get it wrong, I have a PhD in this as well now.
Money making, crystal balls and one benevolent guru
You don't have to take my word for all above mentioned, each week the rankings are posted and they are there fore all to see. They've been posted for the last three years and the threads are all here on Bigfooty. You will see that it has beaten in tipping (although it's not specifically designed for this) every other established tipping model in Australia. They also beat the betting market each year, and of course most importantly they do a very good job of predicting premiership potential. For example, most rankings didn't even have Fremantle in the top two ranked teams last year at any stage whatsoever, not even after the Grand Final, the AFL Power Rankings had them already at first as early as mid-season.
This week's rankings explained
So there was no games this week but the rankings have changed from last year because of the trades.
Hawthorn (2nd) lose Buddy but Fremantle (1st) gain some good players and there was already little difference between the two. Yes McEvoy is a good pick but Buddy is worth a lot more and they had to also give up Savage. It's the Dockers flag to lose at this stage.
There is a large gap between the top two and the rest of the competition, but you wondering now how Adelaide (3rd) has jumped up one spot to third. Geelong (4th) have lost a massive amount of experienced players while Adelaide gained some key players. The Crows performances last year against the other top three ranked teams could only be matched by those teams themselves and they are now expected to finish in top four this year.
The Kangaroos (6th) jump to their highest ranking position ever, which they were once back in round three of 2012. They picked up a few handy players while Collingwood (9th), the Suns (8th) and Richmond (7th) all lost experienced players. Gold Coast is expected to make the finals for the first time this year with 13 wins.
St Kilda (12th) is obviously looking to rebuild but don't expect them to win the wooden spoon like two-thirds of Herald Sun readers voted this week in a poll. Don't forget their last two performances against last year's runner-up and now the top ranked team in the AFL was very good. Carlton move up to 11th and are expected to be on top of the ladder for at least the first eight rounds were they are predicted to go undefeated until they meet Eddie Betts and Adelaide in round 10.
So nobody expects West Coast (16th) to win the premiership this year but many still have them in the eight. They should worry about not getting the wooden spoon this year along with Essendon (13th).
2014 AFL Power Rankings
1 Fremantle (+1)
2 Hawthorn (-1)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (-1)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Kangaroos (+3)
7 Richmond (-1)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Collingwood (-2)
10 Brisbane (+1)
11 Carlton (+1)
12 St Kilda (-2)
13 Essendon (-)
14 Port Adelaide (+1)
15 Bulldogs (-1)
16 West Coast (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 GWS (-)
Match previews
Collingwood (9th) vs Fremantle (1st), ES, 7:50pm, Friday
Collingwood in the last two seasons have been the most overrated side by punters and guess who has been the most underrated in the same time? You guessed it, Fremantle. Collingwood have beaten the betting lines less than one third of the time during that period while Fremantle did so two-thirds of the time. Expecting a close game? Fremantle should win comfortably.
GWS (18th) vs Sydney (5th), SPO, 4:40pm, Saturday
Yawn. Well, let's hope not but unfortunately GWS still don't have the experience to do much here. Surely Sydney won't lose this one but the rankings predict an even closer margin than the bookies. Is everyone expecting Buddy to fire? It's not at the SCG so the Swans won't be at their best, especially for round one.
Gold Coast (8th) vs Richmond (7th), MS, 6:40pm, Saturday
The ranking predict this to be the closest game of the round with the Suns getting up by two points. The biggest weighting here is the home ground advantage, Metricon has now become a bit of a fortress for the Suns, their comfortable playing there and the crowd gets into the game. Pick the Suns and start your tipping ahead of the rest.
Carlton (11th) vs Port Adelaide (14th), ES, 7:40pm, Sunday
What a way to finish off the week with a massive game. Either way we are going to know a lot about how ready these teams are to start the season but you have to expect Carlton to win at home against Port Adelaide, and as the rankings suggest they are just better.
Betting Tips
This year the betting tips will be a little different, we're betting on all of the games! Also the amounts will be increased in some games. If you've been following it since 2011 you should have a bit of superannuation fund going.
Collingwood vs Fremantle (-7.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Luxbet
Gold Coast vs Richmond (+14.5) - $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Gold Coast vs Richmond (+12.5) - $1 @ $2 Topsport
Carlton vs Port Adelaide (-8.5) - $1 @ $2 Topsport
GWS vs Sydney – Handicap (+50.5) - $1 @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Tips for Round 1
Fremantle
Sydney
Gold Coast
Carlton
Long term tips
Adelaide Top 4 $1 @ $6.75 Sportsbet
Fremantle Premiers $1 @ $5.4 Betfair
Fremantle/Hawthorn GF Quinella $1 @ $11 Sportsbet
Gold Coast Final 8 $1 @ $4 Betstar
West Coast Miss top 8 $2 @ $2.05 Tomwaterhouse
Last year's AFL Power Rankings thread.
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