AFL Power Rankings 2014

[Inferno]

Claiming equal first?

Still makes more sense than Melbourne being 10 places above us

 

[Headless]

Still makes more sense than Melbourne being 10 places above us

No, I can live with that one.

 

[Slax]

Roby three things

1. Sydney-Hawthorn grand final preseason was the shortest starting price of a grand final quinella by almost a full dollar.
2. You have Sydney at #3 this week so obviously the rankings aren't as good as you claim
3. Again you have screwed Port over, what is the problem you have with Port because no-one else on this forum can work it out, two years straight they have been the best team in the AFL to watch

 

[PattoMan99]

There you go, Hawthorn. Hah.

Seems like Roby's right after all.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

The Roby Review
Celebrating trollery since June 2014
----------------------------------------

2014 - Mad Monday Review

What this means exactly I am not entirely sure. Possibly that reality takes half a season to marry up to the rankings.

So apparently Roby lives half a season in the future. He's the AFL equivalent of using a Grays Sports Almanac from mid 2015.

Finals review
- successfully tipped the Hawks. Conservatively went the line instead of chasing the lucrative odds being offered for his Dearly Beloved.
- had a profitable finals series, returning 10.1 units on a total outlay of 33 (31% returns)
- of 9 bets placed over the finals, only 4 came in

Long Term Bets review:
- Placed 17, of which 8 were successful
- Long Term positions returned 42.15 units on 19.00 staked (a profit of 121.8%)



2014 Performance (including Long Term bets)

- in 2014, the Power Rankings returned a profit in 20 weeks out of 29



Great work this year Roby. Looking forward to continuing the profits in 2015.

 

[rumply]

The Roby Review
Celebrating trollery since June 2014
----------------------------------------

2014 - Mad Monday Review

So apparently Roby lives half a season in the future. He's the AFL equivalent of using a Grays Sports Almanac from mid 2015.

Finals review
- successfully tipped the Hawks. Conservatively went the line instead of chasing the lucrative odds being offered for his Dearly Beloved.
- had a profitable finals series, returning 10.1 units on a total outlay of 33 (31% returns)
- of 9 bets placed over the finals, only 4 came in

Long Term Bets review:
- Placed 17, of which 8 were successful
- Long Term positions returned 42.15 units on 19.00 staked (a profit of 121.8%)

View attachment 83182

2014 Performance (including Long Term bets)

- in 2014, the Power Rankings returned a profit in 20 weeks out of 29

View attachment 83184

Great work this year Roby. Looking forward to continuing the profits in 2015.

Cannot deny it is a good result, suspect most regular footy punters would give a left nut or the like for that type of performance each year.

& if this thread was just about that side of Roby's work there would be little valid criticism that could be leveled, but when I read stuff like -

4 Adelaide (-1)
7 Port Adelaide (+1)
11 Melbourne (-)
14 Essendon (-)

well Roby yeah, nah, otherwise well done.

 

[Hawkk]

There you go, Hawthorn. Hah.

Hah

Should have been da bloodz

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Cannot deny it is a good result, suspect most regular footy punters would give a left nut or the like for that type of performance each year.

& if this thread was just about that side of Roby's work there would be little valid criticism that could be leveled, but when I read stuff like -

4 Adelaide (-1)
7 Port Adelaide (+1)
11 Melbourne (-)
14 Essendon (-)

well Roby yeah, nah, otherwise well done.

Right.

But then this wouldn't be a (currently) 73 page troll thread which constantly delivers. I come back for the tips and stay for the relentless trolling.

 

[AlibiMonday]

Well done Roby. Excellent profit generating tips for 2014. Big thanks to sthmelb_dimmies for the transparency.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Where's the end of year rankings?
I want to know if Adelaide catapulted back to 3rd.

 

[Roby]

HA! Of course you still think Hawthorn (you know, the team you support while claiming to somehow hold an unbiased opinion on the umpiring) were unlucky and still think that Port were favoured, even when it goes against almost the entirety of popular opinion. Never change Roby

Of course it's neutral and objective otherwise it would cost the rankings money. Having said that, a biased Hawthorn view may have paid out even more this season given they have paid out on the line more than any other team this season.

Roby three things

1. Sydney-Hawthorn grand final preseason was the shortest starting price of a grand final quinella by almost a full dollar.
2. You have Sydney at #3 this week so obviously the rankings aren't as good as you claim
3. Again you have screwed Port over, what is the problem you have with Port because no-one else on this forum can work it out, two years straight they have been the best team in the AFL to watch

1. If the umpiring had been equitable in the qualifying final, Freo were a good chance to knock off Sydney and possibly send them out in straight send them out in straight sets. That's not taking into account Freo's injuries and they would've beaten the Swans regardless.
2. You're right they're not that good, ever. But they fix themselves. Sydney was obviously ranked too high.
3. I'm pretty sure the premiership team is the best team to watch. I was in Adelaide prelim week and I can tell you Port people didn't look to happy having watched their team.

Seems like Roby's right after all.

If I didn't have a ranking system I'd probably have picked Sydney to win.

 

[Roby]

O ye of little faith - trust in the Rankings. It is in the Rankings that we find true meaning.

And we come to the crux of the problem, throw in the loss of Franklin + COLA, and you somehow have Sydney mid-table and Hawks top.

Arguing/discussing anything with you is pointless, your logic is so absurd no one can actually comprehend nor understand what you're blithering about.

There you go, Hawthorn. Hah.

Back to back, was it ever in doubt?

Not according to the Power Rankings, the Hawks don't really need to be commended that much for winning the Grand Final, they were up against an inflated opponent (5th) due to a softish fixture and favourable umpiring.

Hawks another long streakHawks (1st) current 17 week streak at the top of the rankings is the longest since their previous record of 26 consecutive weeks from round 13, 2012-round 11, 2013. Their points lead is far above anyone else and even with a few losses between now and the end of the season they will still remain at the top of the rankings. In other words, congratulations on the 2014 premiership Hawks fans (unless an impeding apocalypse were to happen between now and the Grand Final). Until then will keep putting money on Hawks for the flag unless they turn favourites.
Hawthorn Premiers $1* @ $3.6 Betfair
*this is a total of $5 for Hawthorn and the most ever put on flag favourite and a return of $17.65.

Hawks best ever
The Hawks have opened up the biggest discrepancy over the rest of the competition since 2011 afl power rankings were devised. In other words it means that there is very little chance anyone will catch them come finals time. Hawks sit 1st on the Umpty, 2nd on the TIT and 1st on the UT. According to the UT they are a 25 ppg better side than their current results. Come finals time when they have a more fit list and a more equitable umpired game they will be scary.

To put it simply Hawthorn is virtually the only possible outcome to who will win the premiership in 2014. In other words it doesn't matter where other teams finish this year, even in the finals they'll just be making up the numbers and it has no interesting statistical value to these power rankings right now.

Sydney have had very few injuries in relation to their opponents, then add their massive two goal advantage per game this year from umpiring, they're not as good as everyone thinks they are and when the business end of the season comes they will be found out

The Hawks (1st) currently registered their 25th consecutive week on top of the rankings and will look to smash their record of 26 weeks as they've opened up a massive lead over the rest of the competition; but can they hold it long enough to do the three-peat?

Three-peat

Three-peats are rare in AFL history, they've only happened on five occasions (or six depending if you like to restart and another to Collingwood's from 1928), then again so are back to back premierships. In 118 years of football a premiership team has followed with another only 18% of the time. While the sample size is very small, teams that have won back to back have won a third successive premiership 24% of the time. So there could be a theory that adding a successive premiership adds momentum. Teams that have won back to back have only missed finals the following year 14% of the time and made the grand final 48% of the time. Two thirds of the time they have finished top three on the ladder in the successive year and only those teams that have finished top three have gone on to claim a three-peat.

Also of note is that the teams that didn't claim the three-peat most of them tended to be up at half or three-quarter time in their last finals game and/or had more shots than their opponent but obviously didn't convert. There must be some nervousness getting to greatness and having reliable converters in finals must calm those nerves.

A more important stat

Really it probably doesn't really matter that much what the stats say in the end, the rankings are the best judge. Hawthorn will need to be in the top four of the rankings before May of 2015 to even have a shot, but that shouldn't be a problem with their massive lead over the rest of the comp.

Since the rankings have been posted in 2011 the top ranked team has gone on to win the premiership three out of the four years as opposed to the CPR (AFL Ladder) where the team on top has actually lost three out of four. Therefore when using it a guide to premiership potential the power rankings are currently THREE times greater than the AFL ladder and the reason why the ladder is called the Contaminated Power Rankings.

Where to for the Swans?

The Swans (5th) scored a four for competitiveness in the grand final, their previous lowest score this year was nine against Richmond (10th) in the round 23 and also against North (7th) in round 4. The last time they scored a four was last year in their preliminary final against Fremantle (2nd). They seem to have a habit of not showing up to the last game of the season. Interestingly they also scored a four that year against the Hawks in round 7 at the MCG.

It wasn't just the lack of competitiveness (the Swans rank second best on the OCT since 2012 records) but it was the margin. Teams that have lost the grand final by 35 points or more have not made the finals the successive year 44% of the time. It goes up to 50% when the margin is ten goals or more.

On the other hand 40% went deep into the finals finishing with at least a preliminary appearance or the like, and a staggering 31% have gone on to win the premiership. In fact of the 45 teams that have lost a grand final by a six goal or more margin only two have gone on to just finish runner up, Swans in 1935 and then 60 years later Geelong in 1995.

So history suggests that the grand final for the Swans will either galvanise them and spur them to go better next year or probably bomb out, with bombing out a little more likely and with the rankings erring to that side as well. And if they lose Malceski and North and Port (8th) gain some good pick ups in the off season, they will probably drop to 8th in the rankings before a ball is bounced in 2015.

The Cats just won't die.

Maybe it's because the competition is average (Ross Lyon did say his team was mediocre this season) or very even but Geelong (4th) find themselves one spot below the injury riddled Adelaide (3rd). With the acquisition of Clark it should give them an added boost in attack and this is a team that had the game wrapped up against Hawthorn at half time back in round 22 (and even in the first final scores were level), so they should've had wins against all the top three ranked teams, included 6th and 7th teams. Their 110 pt humiliation at the hands of Sydney now matters less due to Sydney's drop.


Why North up and Port down?

Both teams were very close on rankings points before the grand final but the new Hawthorn weighting has now dragged North back up the rankings (they're still the best performed team this year against The Benchmark Hawks).


How did your team perform against the ultimate litmus test

If you want to claim the premiership you will have to beat Hawthorn or clones of the Hawks (as other teams start to follow) so it's interesting to see how well current teams and their gameplans stacked up against the Hawthorn's this year.

Below is table of the adjusted results against Hawthorn in 2014 if umpiring, players outs, in-game injuries were even. This table does not take into account HGA, form, or break/travel or how teams match up against each other but the rankings do.

Hawks opponent|round|adjusted margin vs opponent
\Roos|16|-25 points
\Cats|5|-15 points
\Cats|22|-11 points
\Port|10|-2 points
\Pies|14|0 points (draw)
\Freo|21|1 point
\Cats|F1|20 points
\Dees|20|25 points
\Freo|3|31 points
\Swans|18|33 points
\Crows|17|35 points
\Port|F3|36 points
\Swans|8|47 points
\Tigers|6|48 points
\Pies|23|47 points
\Dons|2|54 points
\Swans|F4|60 points
\Lions|1|65 points
\Dogs|19|79 points
\Blues|13|84 points
\GWS|11|86 points
\Suns|15|87 points
\Suns|4|90 points
\Eagles|12|99 points
\Saints|7|163 points

2014 End of Season AFL Power Rankings

1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (+1)
5 Sydney (-2)
6 West Coast (-)
7 Kangaroos (+1)
8 Port Adelaide (-1)
9 Gold Coast (-)
10 Richmond (-)
11 Melbourne (-)
12 GWS (-)
13 Carlton (-)
14 Essendon (-)
15 Collingwood (-)
16 Bulldogs (-)
17 Brisbane (-)
18 St Kilda (-)



Record profits

Back in 2011 the power rankings starting putting the first betting tips up, and had started with less than $10, now they have over $200. This year it recorded it's best ever profit 789% on weekly bets, 241% on long term bets. This achieved through the rankings getting closer to the predicted margin 58.48% (56.81% all-time) of the time closer than market in 2014, and betting heavily when the discrepancy between these margins was more than 20pts. In those bets the ranking were closer over 70% of the time. In 28 weeks the PR managed to make profit an impressive 72% of the time.




2014 fund: $145.46
Staked for 2014: $29.85

All-time fund: $211.25


Here is a Tip

2014 represented the worst ever tipping for the PR, but after 207 games including the grand final, only one established mathematical model was able to beat it. Well done to Footymathsblog for finishing with a 150 (its probably 149 but still a lot better than anyone else). So overall the PR still lead all-time, even better than just tipping favourites each week, and in its worst year did better than all the experts in The Age. Why? Nearly all of them tipped Sydney last week, otherwise... here is a tip, don't get caught up in last week's results too much.

2014 Tip tally: 146/207


Last week's rankings and tips.

 

[doncht]

Thanks for this Rob. Appreciate it.

 

[Brian Gray]

2014 End of Season AFL Power Rankings

1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (+1)
5 Sydney (-2)
6 West Coast (-)
7 Kangaroos (+1)
8 Port Adelaide (-1)
9 Gold Coast (-)
10 Richmond (-)
11 Melbourne (-)
12 GWS (-)
13 Carlton (-)
14 Essendon (-)
15 Collingwood (-)
16 Bulldogs (-)
17 Brisbane (-)
18 St Kilda (-)

The AFL Power Rankings are back in 2014 for their fourth successive year and hopefully this season turns out to be more about the football than anything else related off-field. Many of you already know how the rankings work and many still haven't worked it out after all this time, but fear not, I will do my best to explain the power rankings method yet again. There have also been some changes to the rankings this year, the trade period is now calculated in the rankings points minus the draft, (for now).


Win or lose, these rankings make me want to drink more booze


The rankings are about expected performance. So in other words, each team is expected to win or lose by a specific margin depending on the strength of their opponent. Once the predicted margin is calculated, if a team does better than the expected margin they gain ranking points, if they do worse than the expected margin, they lose ranking points. Simple?


For example, on Friday night Fremantle is expected to beat Collingwood by 28 points, if Fremantle win by only 1 point, it is likely they will lose their number one ranking position with the loss in ranking points. On the other hand Collingwood despite losing the game would gain ranking points, a significant amount and enough to push them up two spots.


Better teams have more weighting, lesser teams have less


The power rankings are designed with premiership potential in mind. For the last three years, the top two ranked teams have gone on to play of in the Grand Final. And only in 2012, did the top ranked team not take the premiership. But as Paul Roos said On the Couch after the Grand Final last year, Hawthorn was the best team of the last two years. The rankings already knew this. The point is that the rankings formula is designed to show how teams would fair in the finals if they all played on equal footing this week.


It's important to understand that teams and players do no play at full capacity each week, they save their best efforts for the important games. This is why performances against better teams hold more weight and why a loss to GWS by a huge margin will still not mean that much in context of the season as a significant loss to Fremantle. If you want to win the premiership you will have to get through Ross Lyon's team and not the Giants.


The changes


As some of you already know the rankings take into account how strong on paper each team is. If there are significant outs, these are calculated and the expected performance is diminished. So how a team fairs in the trade period will theoretically have an effect on performance based on the personnel that has arrived and departed. Of course sometimes this feels like guess work, but one should assume that players like Thomas, Franklin and Sylvia will improve their respective sides and weaken their previous.


Where are the ranking's points? How are they exactly calculated? How the **** is Adelaide third and Port Adelaide 14th?


I don't release the points because these are the best rankings system on the planet and therefore I don't want someone who is either as clever or move clever than me (unlikely) to deduce how they are calculated. They're also used as a betting tool which will win you money every year. Just be content you get them for free. Also it's much more exciting this way as it's harder for you to predict how the rankings will turn out from week to week.


Having said all that, even if I could be bothered to explain the exact method of the algorithms it would take many, many pages of complex elaboration, and most people don't have the time nor the inclination to care about such things. But that doesn't mean I am going to leave you in complete darkness. Here is in point form the criteria in which the rankings and predicted margins are calculated:

1. Rankings points/rankings position
   
   
2. Form
   
   
3. Injuries/suspensions
   
   
4. Home ground advantage
   
   
5. Historical match-ups
   
   
6. Travels/byes/shorter and longer breaks

Each of those of these have different formula's and weightings and are tracked and recorded over many years. I spend more time on rankings than most people ever do on any subject at university. In other words I have more than just a PhD in this field of study.



I watch every game


That's correct. I watch 207 games, or over 400 hours of AFL footage in a year. Why? The previous mentioned points aren't the only things taken into account. Every game I record the score worm to see how close the game is. For example, if Collingwood tonight were to lose by 30 points but were within a goal for nearly the whole game except the last ten minutes, it would be calculated as a better performance if they lost by 24 points but they were losing by 40 points up until ten minutes to go and then piled three goals in the last quarter. The reason is because teams tend to put their foot off the accelerator as soon as the game is over, while also sometimes the pressure of not having to win the game is not there for the losing team any more.



But there is one bigger weighting...


Umpiring. I review every possible umpiring decision and a weighting is calculated based on a metric and formula created to theoretically get to as close to what the most likely score would've been had the umpiring been 100% accurate. For example, a decision late in the game which wins the game for one team in the goal square is obviously worth more than one in the first quarter on a wing. The metric calculates:

1. Position on ground
   
   
2. Score differential
   
   
3. Time in game
   
   
4. Successive errors

And I never get it wrong, I have a PhD in this as well now.



Money making, crystal balls and one benevolent guru


You don't have to take my word for all above mentioned, each week the rankings are posted and they are there fore all to see. They've been posted for the last three years and the threads are all here on Bigfooty. You will see that it has beaten in tipping (although it's not specifically designed for this) every other established tipping model in Australia. They also beat the betting market each year, and of course most importantly they do a very good job of predicting premiership potential. For example, most rankings didn't even have Fremantle in the top two ranked teams last year at any stage whatsoever, not even after the Grand Final, the AFL Power Rankings had them already at first as early as mid-season.


This week's rankings explained


So there was no games this week but the rankings have changed from last year because of the trades.


Hawthorn (2nd) lose Buddy but Fremantle (1st) gain some good players and there was already little difference between the two. Yes McEvoy is a good pick but Buddy is worth a lot more and they had to also give up Savage. It's the Dockers flag to lose at this stage.


There is a large gap between the top two and the rest of the competition, but you wondering now how Adelaide (3rd) has jumped up one spot to third. Geelong (4th) have lost a massive amount of experienced players while Adelaide gained some key players. The Crows performances last year against the other top three ranked teams could only be matched by those teams themselves and they are now expected to finish in top four this year.


The Kangaroos (6th) jump to their highest ranking position ever, which they were once back in round three of 2012. They picked up a few handy players while Collingwood (9th), the Suns (8th) and Richmond (7th) all lost experienced players. Gold Coast is expected to make the finals for the first time this year with 13 wins.


St Kilda (12th) is obviously looking to rebuild but don't expect them to win the wooden spoon like two-thirds of Herald Sun readers voted this week in a poll. Don't forget their last two performances against last year's runner-up and now the top ranked team in the AFL was very good. Carlton move up to 11th and are expected to be on top of the ladder for at least the first eight rounds were they are predicted to go undefeated until they meet Eddie Betts and Adelaide in round 10.


So nobody expects West Coast (16th) to win the premiership this year but many still have them in the eight. They should worry about not getting the wooden spoon this year along with Essendon (13th).

2014 AFL Power Rankings

1 Fremantle (+1)
2 Hawthorn (-1)
3 Adelaide (+1)
4 Geelong (-1)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Kangaroos (+3)
7 Richmond (-1)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Collingwood (-2)
10 Brisbane (+1)
11 Carlton (+1)
12 St Kilda (-2)
13 Essendon (-)
14 Port Adelaide (+1)
15 Bulldogs (-1)
16 West Coast (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 GWS (-)



Match previews


Collingwood (9th) vs Fremantle (1st), ES, 7:50pm, Friday


Collingwood in the last two seasons have been the most overrated side by punters and guess who has been the most underrated in the same time? You guessed it, Fremantle. Collingwood have beaten the betting lines less than one third of the time during that period while Fremantle did so two-thirds of the time. Expecting a close game? Fremantle should win comfortably.



GWS (18th) vs Sydney (5th), SPO, 4:40pm, Saturday


Yawn. Well, let's hope not but unfortunately GWS still don't have the experience to do much here. Surely Sydney won't lose this one but the rankings predict an even closer margin than the bookies. Is everyone expecting Buddy to fire? It's not at the SCG so the Swans won't be at their best, especially for round one.



Gold Coast (8th) vs Richmond (7th), MS, 6:40pm, Saturday


The ranking predict this to be the closest game of the round with the Suns getting up by two points. The biggest weighting here is the home ground advantage, Metricon has now become a bit of a fortress for the Suns, their comfortable playing there and the crowd gets into the game. Pick the Suns and start your tipping ahead of the rest.



Carlton (11th) vs Port Adelaide (14th), ES, 7:40pm, Sunday


What a way to finish off the week with a massive game. Either way we are going to know a lot about how ready these teams are to start the season but you have to expect Carlton to win at home against Port Adelaide, and as the rankings suggest they are just better.



Betting Tips


This year the betting tips will be a little different, we're betting on all of the games! Also the amounts will be increased in some games. If you've been following it since 2011 you should have a bit of superannuation fund going.


Collingwood vs Fremantle (-7.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Luxbet


Gold Coast vs Richmond (+14.5) - $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet


Gold Coast vs Richmond (+12.5) - $1 @ $2 Topsport


Carlton vs Port Adelaide (-8.5) - $1 @ $2 Topsport


GWS vs Sydney – Handicap (+50.5) - $1 @ $1.92 Sportsbet



Tips for Round 1


Fremantle

Sydney

Gold Coast

Carlton



Long term tips


Adelaide Top 4 $1 @ $6.75 Sportsbet


Fremantle Premiers $1 @ $5.4 Betfair


Fremantle/Hawthorn GF Quinella $1 @ $11 Sportsbet


Gold Coast Final 8 $1 @ $4 Betstar


West Coast Miss top 8 $2 @ $2.05 Tomwaterhouse



Last year's AFL Power Rankings thread.