AFL Power Rankings 2014

[Mofra]

The Western Bulldogs is the name of that club.

No, it's our trading name.

We are the "Footscray Football Club trading as Western Bulldogs Football Club". The club charter remains intact, just as Sydney are still "South Melbourne Football Club" on their club charter hence "SMFC" on the back of their jumpers.

If you want your Power Rankings to be taken credibly

Out

 

[Dirty Bird]

I've seen Roby at work before.

GWS' win will see them drop at least one spot in the rankings - he'll drop us to 19th, putting us below the white maggots. And that means it's damn lucky we're ahead of The Bye, which only managed one solitary but famous win against Port Adelaide in their entire history.

Trip down memory lane

 

[charcoalchicken]

 

[emblurr]

Good start.

 

[Andre]

Hopefully Port's win by 33 away from home doesn't have them dropping down too many places in the Roby rankings. The tension of awaiting Roby's insightful answer as to why another win will mean no improvement is almost more than the game last night was.

 

[TheFVK]

Welcome back Roby! Your rankings are shit but we all love you anyway

 

[tboak]

Port down 1 spot, carlton robbed by the umpires?

 

[El_Scorcho]

Port down a spot, because despite being lower on rankings than Carlton and being predicted by the rankings to lose, when it comes to calculating next weeks totals it turns out that they were actually predicted to win by 59 points, and obviously fell well short of that mark therefore losing ground.

 

[spookism]

Carlton move up to 11th and are expected to be on top of the ladder for at least the first eight rounds were they are predicted to go undefeated until they meet Eddie Betts and Adelaide in round 10.

And so it begins.....

Also, subbed!

 

[floki]

This whole so-called Power Rankings sham is dead in the water already.

Look son obviously the power rankings calculus is a bit beyond you, best off you just ease back take a deep breath and let us connoisseurs of excellence enjoy the fruits of Roby's labours.

Ps Hey Roby do you have a roof open/roof closed performance measure for Etihad.

 

[carnthedons]

Look son obviously the power rankings calculus is a bit beyond you, best off you just ease back take a deep breath and let us connoisseurs of excellence enjoy the fruits of Roby's labours.

Ps Hey Roby do you have a roof open/roof closed performance measure for Etihad.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Trip down memory lane

That was awesome.

 

[Crankyhawk]

OK, here goes the noob betting response.

Geelong 1.33
North 1.64
Hawks1.08
Saints 2.45
WCE 1.35

 

[Roby]

Just posting up a provisional rankings for the split round but obviously the final round one rankings will be posted next week by Tuesday.

2014 AFL Power Rankings - Provisional Round 1

1 Fremantle (-)
2 Hawthorn (-)
3 Adelaide (-)
4 Geelong (-)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Kangaroos (-)
7 Gold Coast (+1)
8 Richmond (-1)
9 Brisbane (+1)
10 Collingwood (-1)
11 St Kilda (+1)
12 Port Adelaide (+2)
13 Carlton (-2)
14 Essendon (-1)
15 Bulldogs (-)
16 West Coast (-)
17 GWS (+1)
18 Melbourne (-1)


The premiership window each year closes quickly (in most cases it's already shut for 2014) and if you're a Tigers fan you should start barracking for North Melbourne


There is a lot of talk about premiership windows, well none is more relevant for when it shuts this year. Looking back at power rankings history it suggests that you need to be high up the rankings very early to be a premiership team. For example:

• No team has ever been ranked 8th or lower and gone on to win the premiership.
  
  
• No team has ever been ranked 7th or lower by round four and gone on to win the premiership.
  
  
• No team has ever been ranked 5th or lower by round seven and gone on to win the premiership.
  
  
• No team has ever been ranked 4th or lower by the end of the final round and gone on to win the premiership.
  
  
• No team has ever been ranked 3rd or lower by the first week of the finals and and gone on to win the premiership.

In fact, the same qualifiers apply just to make the Grand Final. If you're not in the top six in a month's time, you're out and you're not even making the Grand Final. Again, if by round seven you're not a top four ranked team you're watching the big one on television.


A couple of weeks ago while I was having lunch and reading the back pages of the Herald Sun and a Richmond supporter walked in and said, 'Does it tell you how the Tigers are going to win the premiership this year', but Richmond (8th) are already out of contention after round one; that is unless North Melbourne (who are also know as the Kangaroos) get thrashed by Essendon this week.



Match previews


Geelong (4th) vs Adelaide (3rd), SS, 7:10pm, Thursday


Two heavyweights here fighting it out to start catching the two powerhouse teams at the top of the rankings. With Fremantle already putting a gap on the rest of the competition, both teams will want to come put firing proving that they can match it with them. Unfortunately the Crows are still heavily depleted so you'd expect the Cats to win this one at home.


Kangaroos (6th) vs Essendon (14th), ES, 7:50pm, Friday


Historically this has been a good match up, but in the last couple of years North has had the measure of the Dons. But that's not the reason that North will win. North are good and Essendon is crap. Of course it is round one but if everything goes according to plan North will win by five goals.


Hawthorn (2nd) vs Brisbane (9th), AS, 4:40pm, Saturday


Many are expecting a thrashing but underdogs tend to overpeform on round one, and with the Hawks having significant outs, expect this game to be close for at least two or three quarters. The Lions are actually a good team, in their last 11 games they won more than half, beating the Cats once and then almost repeated that in the last round last year. During that stretch the Lions also beat the Suns and the Kangaroos and had close loses to Port Adelaide and Richmond away from home.



St Kilda (11th) vs Melbourne (18th), ES, 7:40pm, Saturday


2014 is the year of the Horse, it's also the year we must hate on St Kilda and believe they will win the wooden spoon. Not happening, Saints are actually a decent team and they look like they will be underrated by the bookies again this year. The Dees are now back to the bottom of the rankings after GWS have moved back up to 17th where they were for most of last year.



West Coast (16th) vs Bulldogs (15th), PS, 4:40pm, Sunday


How the hell are the Eagles 16th in the rankings, weren't they most people's premiership favourite 12 months ago? Things change quickly and if you don't show much improvement then you're moving quickly back down the ranking. Paterson is no longer a fortress for them and the Dogs even beat them at Etihad last year. The Dogs should start favourite.


Betting tips


St Kilda vs Melbourne (+11.5) – $4 @ $2 Topsport


St Kilda vs Melbourne WIN – $1 @ $2.47 Pinnacle


West Coast vs Western Bulldogs (+26.5) - $2 @ $2 Topsport


West Coast vs Western Bulldogs WIN - $0.5 @ $4.2 Luxbet


North Melbourne vs Essendon (-7.5) - $2 @ $1.9 Bookmaker


Hawthorn vs Brisbane (+47.5) - $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet


Geelong vs Adelaide (+21.5) - $0.5 @ $1.92 Bookmaker



Remaining tips for Round 1


Geelong

Kangaroos

Hawthorn

St Kilda

Bulldogs

Current tips 2/4





Long term tips


Adelaide Top 4 $1 @ $6.75 Sportsbet


Fremantle Premiers $1 @ $5.4 Betfair


Fremantle/Hawthorn GF Quinella $1 @ $11 Sportsbet


Gold Coast Final 8 $1 @ $4 Betstar


West Coast Miss top 8 $2 @ $2.05 Tomwaterhouse

 

[FrankDrebin]

Port beat Carlton and go above them and up 2 spots in the rankings...? That almost makes sense?!?!

Bring back the old formula please!

 

[timtamWB]

The teams that won went up and the teams that lost went down? I don't like this at all.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Port beat Carlton and go above them and up 2 spots in the rankings...? That almost makes sense?!?!

Bring back the old formula please!

Obvious haven't been following Roby's trends.
Port could go 15-7 this year and finish 5th, he'd have you #1.
Yet GWS could go 22-0 this year and be about 9th.

He has an approx. 2 year carry over. So in his eyes, you're still carrying over most of the 2012 season. The longer this years go, the more of that debacle gets ignored.

 

[charcoalchicken]

11 St Kilda (+1)

 

[raman]

12 Port Adelaide (+2)

 

[Janus]

Geelong vs Adelaide (+21.5) - $0.5 @ $1.92 Bookmaker

The second week of betting has started off just as good as the first...

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

He got the tip right though.

 

[Mantastic]

He got the tip right though.

Geelong at home..... Genius.

 

[raskolnikov]

You really should have your own sitcom Roby.

 

[Final Siren]

A couple of weeks ago while I was having lunch and reading the back pages of the Herald Sun and a Richmond supporter walked in and said, 'Does it tell you how the Tigers are going to win the premiership this year', but Richmond (8th) are already out of contention after round one; that is unless North Melbourne (who are also know as the Kangaroos) get thrashed by Essendon this week.

9th beat 10th and now the Tigers can win the flag. What a world.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

GWS +1
Sydney unchanged.

Wooden spooners handsomely knock off one of the flag favorites and languish at the foot of the rankings. Flag favorite suffer no punishment for being punished by wooden spooners.

Yep. Makes sense to me.