Game Day AFL Qualifying Final - Matchday Discussion Collingwood v Geelong(MCG – 7:50PM)

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It’s a Friday night MCG blockbuster at the MCG, and this match promises to be a beauty. It’s a matchup that not many were expecting, with the Magpies only falling into the top four after the Eagles capitulated against the hungry Hawks.

Both sides are coming to this game off a win. Geelong flexed their muscle against a checked out Blues side, while the Magpies had to see off a plucky Bombers side.

The last time these two sides met was back in round one. In a match where both teams were clearly rusty, the Cats came away with the points. Dangerfield was electric for the Cats, while Elliott was very good in his first game for quite a while.

Collingwood

Somehow, the Magpies have stumbled into the top four. Six weeks ago, the top four looked like a lost cause for the Magpies, who were so out of form that they looked like they could miss the finals altogether. However, week by week they were able to work their way into some form, and now they appear to be a dangerous side in September. The Magpies welcome back some crucial players into the side, with De Goey, Sidebottom, and Stepheson included after spending time on the sidelines with injury or suspension.

How the Magpies can win

Midway through the season, that trademark run and carry that the Magpies were so good at had evaporated. However, in the past month, the midfield has begun to take the game on, and the results have been very positive.

The Magpies also need to win that contested possession count. The Cats rely on a contested game, and if the Magpies are able to run a clean possession game, they will have a great shot at winning this matchup.


Players to watch

Jaidyn Stephenson is a player to watch for the Magpies. Stephenson has not played for over 10 weeks, after he was suspended for gambling on Collingwood games. The young jet has been sorely missed in Collingwood’s forward line, and he’ll be keen to shake off some of the rust, and kick a few early goals to settle the nerves.

Taylor Adams is also one to watch for the Magpies. Adams missed the Magpies last outing against the Cats, and the result of the midfield battle well and truly showed. The Magpies missed that inside work that Adams is known for, and he well and truly could be the difference in this massive final.

Geelong

Halfway through the season, it was all rainbows and happiness for the Cats. However, the mid-season bye hit, and all that momentum that Cats had disappeared. Since the bye, the Cats have not won consecutive games, much to the frustration of Geelong supporters. While at times they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, the Cats have been consistently mediocre, losing to sides like the Dockers, and the Hawks. The bye won’t be doing the Cats any favors, with the side having a less than desirable post-bye record. The Cats will be without Cam Guthrie, who is out with calf soreness, but aside from that, they have a pretty clean injury sheet.

How the Cats can win

The Cats need to continue to apply that pressure that they have been known for all season. Midway through the season, the Cats were by far the best pressure side stats wise, but in recent weeks, that pressure has dropped off a touch. Although they are still ranked the best pressure side in the competition, if their pressure is off even slightly, they can be hurt. The Cats are also one of the best teams in the competition at scoring of the turnovers. Currently, the Cats average 53 points per game off intercept marks. If they are able to force turnovers, they will win this game. Casting a thought back to the first round clash between both sides, Geelong’s pressure was top notch, and the result went their way.

It’s imperative that the Cats are able to win the contested possession as well. Geelong are 16-0 when they win the contested possession count, and are yet to win a game when they lose the contested possession count.

Players to watch

Tom Hawkins is one to watch for the Cats. The big forward has been a cause for concern for Nathan Buckley, who’ll be wary of his ability to break the game open. The tall forwards for the Bombers really were a lot of trouble for the Magpies in round 23, and if Hawkins can get on top, it’s danger signs for Collingwood.

Tom Stewart is also one to watch for the Cats. While the star backman doesn’t have that lightning pace, he makes up for it as he is one of the best kicks in the competition coming out of the backline. Collingwood need to shut him down, or else he will play a role in nullifying the Collingwood forward line.

Head to Head odds

Collingwood: $2.10
Cats: $1.72

Changes

Cats


IN

Jake Kolodjashnij

Tom Atkins

OUT

Cameron Guthrie (Injured)

Lachie Henderson (Omitted)

Collingwood

IN

Jaidyn Stephenson

Jordan De Goey

Steele Sidebottom

OUT

Jack Madgen (Omitted)

Matthew Scharenberg (Omitted)

Travis Varcoe (Omitted)

TV

Live on Channel Seven, National
Live on Fox Footy, Commercial Free


Radio

Triple M
3AW
ABC
SEN

IPTV

AFL Live Pass
Foxtel Now
WatchAFL
Kayo Sports

Congratulations Scott Pendlebury – 300 games

Pendlebury joins only Gordon Coventry and Tony Shaw as the only Magpies to play 300 games for the club. Coming to the club as a skinny 18 year old, Pendlebury quickly established himself as one of the staples in the best 22 for the team. His list of accomplishments speaks for itself, and he will almost certainly be in the top five Collingwood players when his career is all said and done.



Tip

This is as close to a “pick-em” matchup as you can get. Both sides have their strengths and weaknesses, and will both come to play on Friday night. Expect a close match.

Magpies by 1.
 
No excuses in terms of personal..........bring it on I say.

Win this one and we are only two games away.
 

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This is one of the hugest games I can remember, it rivals the grand final. The occasion of Pendles 300th, the huge banner for our skipper and one of our most important players to run through, to face off in front of a capacity MCG crowd on a Friday night in a final for a place in the prelim and a 1 in 4 shot at the flag. It's going to be red hot and I'd just love to see Pendles chaired off the ground victorious.

A 300th game is huge at Collingwood especially because it has been so rare for us. Poor old Tony Shaw has never had another living member in that club in all his time in it. He will be glad for the company with another Norm Smith medallist, premiership player at that.

Collingwood by 17 in a monumental effort for Pendles. It's going to be a hair stand up kind of night.
 
Needless to say it's the biggest game of our season. If we can take the game on and be brave in our ball movement, I think we'll get over the line. If we let the Cats stifle us and cut off our movement, we'll struggle.

Congrats Pendles you legend.
 
Very excited, the pessimist in me got a little worried watching that Eagles performance, but hey let's win this and make the Eagles Geelong's problem!

Expecting a tight, low scoring arm wrestle, within two goals either way at the end

Pies by 9, hopefully!
 
Grundy will dominate, our backline will be strong, and our forwards will create mayhem.
And our mids will run hard to defend.

No injuries.

We will win all four quarters.

And Chris Scott will gnash and wail about the unfairness of not playing at the toy ground.

Collingwood by 68 points
 
I don't really have much opinion except for what the soothsayer Shpeshal Ed has foretold. I did dream we play Brisbane in the Grand Final, twice in fact, and a third dream was of myself in the locker rooms, being told of us making the Grand Final, and my Richmond barracking boss utterly devastated. So we have to win somewhere along the way, to see the dream to fruition. Scotty doesn't know yet, but it might be a happy 300th!
 
If Stevo kicks the first goal of the game id be getting every single player around him.
If that happens, we win no questions asked.
 

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Can't wait for this one to start really looking forward to seeing our boy stevo back not to mention Jordy. I'm backing the skipper to put on a master class effort for his 300th and hopefully we can give Chris Scott something to really have a whinge about. Pies by 25pts
 
I think we will win, which is not a good sign. Sad about Schaz. Hope we got that one right.

The Vicky Park path to success:

Wills to be in imposing, threatening, battering ram mode from the get go. His time is now and he can do this.

Noble to draw on all his poise and confidence to keep this fairytale alive. The coaches have confidence in him.

JDG, Stevo, Elliott - get your patterns and shape right, dont get in each other's way, and frighten the living daylights out of the Cat's shell-shocked and bamboozled defence.

Moore is OK. I know that he's had enough of being wary and tentative about a hamstring. Pfft. Its just another soft tissue. He's won that mind game.
 
It’s game time, tonight is going to be massive! I’m hoping the players can draw on the hurt of last year to step it up a notch and win well.
This is our ticket straight through to a prelim, carn the pies!!

Well done Scott Pendlebury on 300, you’re a super star.
 
Doing my analysis of this one what struck me was the difference in Geelong at KP v everywhere else.

Defensively: 59.3 v 66.8
Offensively: 99.8 v 83.5

I think it is partly a result of the competition they get down there. They get the better interstate teams with a true home ground advantage (WC and GWS) and the lesser Melbourne based teams. Setting that comparison aside though there was a clearly anomalous result in their away record when they touched up Richmond at the G. They could play that one a hundred times over and the best they’d walk away with is a 6 goal result, IMO.

Take that one out and their numbers shift to 69.3 and 81.5 which for a team that went 16-6 with a % of 135 is a clear drop off. They went 8-5 away from KP, but more startlingly they went 1-5 away from KP post bye and the win was v Sydney.

Tonight I think we come up against a good team, but not one that deserves to go in as favourites. If we bring consistent pressure on the ball carrier at the contest I think we’ll be in it up to our eyeballs.

Edit: the tip.

Analytical brain says Pies by about 4 goals.

Lizard brain says Cats by 2 goals.
 
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Some are saying we just fell into the top four and are really just making up the numbers . . .

PFFFFT . . .

Without our 2 star swoop forwards for a great chunk of the year, Cox also out and an out of sorts Sier unbalancing our midfield . . .

Despite these massive disadvantages we still managed to stay close enough to 'fall into the top 4'.

If Stevo and DeGoo click early we are all over these pussies and let the rest of the competition beware.

LIttle bitchy Chris isn't moaning about the G for nothing, he knows what can very easily happen to his pussies.

Smash em rhino!!!
 
Just loading the car up for the trip south. It's a s**tty drive to Melbourne from Mildura. But the new Tool album and the promise of an epic at the G will keep me company. Can't wait. Keep Hawkins quiet and we have every chance. Go you pies!
Drive safely and let's ice the trip with a victory at the G
 
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