AFL R10

[Willzzz]

I do think they cover today.

Wasn't in my original plan to take the Doggies SU but at $5+, they are worth a go.

Not saying what I think will eventuate though, I'm still a bit under 60% for all AFL bets this year.

Got that one horribly wrong.
Also got Prestia Unders wrong.
Damn it.

 

[BloodRet]

tailing this
good luck

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

No most certainly not. Im a "poor" uni student who has a small unit size certainly compared to others id say on here.

However that continues to increase

Sorry i cant get my mind around these bets you bet over 24.5 possi's for $550 and you wanted to get on for $500 under 26.5? Hedging gone mad?

I must be missing something, if you would care to explain this to a simpleton like me please

 

[laam]

Sorry i cant get my mind around these bets you bet over 24.5 possi's for $550 and you wanted to get on for $500 under 26.5? Hedging gone mad?

I must be missing something, if you would care to explain this to a simpleton like me please

its a middle. There is a sweet spot of 25 or 26 possessions where both bets win. if its outside this range then because of the odds he gets a small profit from one loss and one win, so a risk free shot.

 

[foxy_dal]

2 units Cunnington over Ziebell DT @ $1.85
2 units Kelly over Mackie SC @ $ 1.70
2 units Priddis over Shuey SC @ $1.80
2 units Dangerfield over Murphy DT @ $1.80
1 unit Lewis over Hartlett DT @ $1.85
2 units Burgoyne over Birchall DT @ $1.78
2 units Dahlhaus over Cooney DT @ $1.85
4 units Ablett over Boyd DT @1.55
2 units Liberatore over Boyd SC @ $1.75
2 units Liberatore over Prestia DT @ $1.85

Round 10: 7-3 +2.21 units

YTD: 71-1-30 +59.37 units

Strange round which ended up with a small profit. Kelly, Burgoyne and Dangerfield all got touches in the last few minutes to get over the line and the rest where either easy wins or easy losses. The big play on Ablett obviously hurts and is only my 2nd play over 2 units that has lost.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

its a middle. There is a sweet spot of 25 or 26 possessions where both bets win. if its outside this range then because of the odds he gets a small profit from one loss and one win, so a risk free shot.

Yea i can appreciate that. Wondering what the % is of hitting that certain sweet spot as you say, has anyone got any numbers on this?

I understand the play on the 25+ possesions at $2 but what was the Luxbet odds on the under 26.5? $1.87? Couldnt have possibly been $2.

I still cant understand how a play like this makes sense long term unless youre getting $2 on both results with a sweet spot, hence my question about % of hitting these sweet spots.

 

[Lensen]

It was 2.15 at lux

 

[Keystone agony]

Yea i can appreciate that. Wondering what the % is of hitting that certain sweet spot as you say, has anyone got any numbers on this?

I understand the play on the 25+ possesions at $2 but what was the Luxbet odds on the under 26.5? $1.87? Couldnt have possibly been $2.

I still cant understand how a play like this makes sense long term unless youre getting $2 on both results with a sweet spot, hence my question about % of hitting these sweet spots.

Under was 2.15 when I got on

 

[alex mcanulty]

thanking you

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Under was 2.15 when I got on

Fair enough then. Can understand the bets with both $2+, but yea, couldnt see this type of play being profitable with one or both prices under $2 long term, unless someone has some data or %'s on sweet spot plays to prove me completely wrong? Wouldnt be the first time.

 

[boyOboy]

1U Ablett v Boyd DT @ 1.50
0.5U Dahlhaus v Cooney @ 1.75
0.5U Griffen 25+ disposals @ 2.00

Had some cash left over from a win, so I threw it on a multi for these three, so I lost that too
Ablett just had to have his worst game ever while I had a bet on him

Bad round. Won more than I lost, but all the times I bet more than 0.5U I lost, so I ended up negative.

Round total - 6-0-5 -1.124U

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

It was 2.15 at lux

You got any data or %'s such plays mate? Is it something you have tried or looked into?

 

[Lensen]

You got any data or %'s such plays mate? Is it something you have tried or looked into?

Not on disposals but would imagine if you are getting ~15-1 on the risk vs potential win then you will do very well

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Not on disposals but would imagine if you are getting ~15-1 on the risk vs potential win then you will do very well

Yea, like i said at $2 and $2.15 completely understand it. Surprised at the odds on the bets with only 2 disposals difference between each of them, i will have to look out for such spots in the future, although i couldnt imagine spots like this coming up too often.

 

[jaymasha]

the marks can be from chip kicks out of the backline and the tackles when the heat of the game is off for all i care.

2u gibbs to have 4 marks and 4 tackles @ $4 sportsbet

Cheers, bryce!

 

[Anzac16]

Cheers, bryce!

Proved me wrong!! Well done.

 

[jaymasha]

Proved me wrong!! Well done.

happy with the blues win, too

 

[Keystone agony]

Another hugely successful week. Will work out unit profit later when I get a chance.

 

[jaymasha]

Another hugely successful week. Will work out unit profit later when I get a chance.

I'm going to have to add tailing you to my location

 

[Sketi]

After a torrid run this year compared to the last couple of years, finally had a couple of breakthrough wins this weekend;

Geelong 1-39
Collingwood
Gold Coast

@ $3.54

had that ^ as well as Port 1-39, Tigers, Pies, GC @ $5. Now things open up a little as I finally have a return to play with..

6/6 tips too so was a pretty perfect weekend!

Hopefully now its the halfway point of the season things will settle down a bit with the crazy upsets, and everyone can start banking a few more multi wins

 

[Keystone agony]

DT Bets and more
1U Pendlebury over 110.5 @1.87 (IAS)
Avg over this so far this year and im expecting the pies mids to win the game for the pies and dominate, he may get the s.slwood tag but hes hardy been keeping players down and pendles is one the hardest to tag behind ablett. I reckon there will be a few 120+ pie mid scores.

1U K.Simpson under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Seems a huge line, has only covered 3/8 this year and 1/4 @MCG. Avgs 100 this year.

1.5U Dangerfield over M.Murphy @1.85 (IAS)
M.Murphy will cop the hard Kerridge tag. Kerridge has been one of the best taggers this year. Dangerfield has also gone 4 out of his 4 100+
2.5U M.Murphy under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Read above, kerridge tag

1U B.Harvey under 102.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Guthrie will get the job and i expect him to do well. Quite a high line for Boomer and i think its mainly due to his 144 last week. Skilled stadium i dont think will suit boomer like ES does or would
1U M.Stokes over B.Harvey @1.87 (BET365)
Stokes to play more midfield without SJ. Harvey to get Guthrie tag.

0.5U J.Selwood to win fantasy group (Lux) @6.50
Should have a very good game against North who dont tag
0.5U J.Selwood to win disposal group (Lux) @6.00
Read above
1U J.Selwood over 106.5 DT (BET365) @1.85
1U J.Selwood 30+ disposals @3.00 (TW)

1.5U L.Shuey under 23.5 disposals (Lux) @1.87
Macaffer tag
1U L.Shuey under 88.5 (Lux) @1.87
Macaffer tag
1U Masten over Shuey @1.80 (bet365)
Shuey to get Macaffer tag I reckon

1U K.Cornes Over 104.5 (Lux) @1.87
Avg 110 this year and avg 127 at the Adelaide oval this year
1.2U K.Cornes Under 110.5 @1.75 (Bet365)
Going for the middle, expecting the night mqtch to maybe be low scoring against the hawks
1U R.Griffen over 93.5 @1.87 (Lux)
GC dont tag and he is starting to his straps the last few weeks
0.5U Griffen 30 posses+ @8.50 (IAS)
55U >24.5 disposals R.Griffen @2.00 (IAS)
25U <26.5 disposals R.Griffen @2.15 (Lux)

0.5U Macrae over Swallow @1.87 (bet365)
Macrae avg 105.5 this year and Swallow 97.
Macrae has been slowing the last few weeks but I think the bye or week off wouldve helped him with that. Hes the better DTer over Swallow.

1U Dangerfield Under 104.5 DT @1.87
He has only covered this line twice this year his line looks inflated from a big 135 last week. Carlton always tag they kept Montagna and J.Steven quite low in the last game. Likewise swan, beams, pendles the week before that all scoring below there avg. Expecting an Armfield tag which I think for pace and endurance is a good matchup.

0.5U Liberatore over Prestia DT @1.85 (bet365)
Prestia avg 96 this year compared to Liberatore 102. Gold Coast dont tag which should help Liberatore aswell. Libba avg 122 last 3. Prestia avg just 92.7 in last 7. Tailing Anzac16 - good find

1.5U Deledio over 24.5 disposals (Lux) @1.87
GWS havnt been tagging and Deledio is just getting back to his best, im pretty confident with this one against a weak side. Also in his 200th game.

1U J.Schulz over 2.5 Goals @2.25 (Lux)
Against a side without Lake and Gibson he will have a pretty easy defender and i expect Port to win. Also really like the value.

1U Cameron under 2.5 goals @2.00
I feel he will play back. Frost and N.Haynes are out and hes been named down back I think hes a good chance to play there

1U J.Riewoldt over 2.5 Goals @2.35 (Lux)
Against GWS who let J.J.Kennedy kick 11 goals. Good value aswell. Is paying just 5 to kick the most goals of anyone this week.

0.5U J.Ziebell over 21.5 disposals @1.87 (Lux)
Has had well over this in his last 2 weeks and is only building up his fitness. Likes playing geelong and i think will like it at skilled in a tight close congested game.
0.2U Ziebell most disposals @23.00 group (Lux)
Value and read above. 30 may be enough to win this.
0.2U Elliot MGS @8 (Came 2nd - 1 off)

ROUND 10
16-0-13

+8.56 Units (Not including what actually happened with the Griffen bet as i didnt post it before the event of actually double the amount of units 55 on Griffen >24.5 disposals @2.00 - it was a slight mistake explained, however has turned out to be a massive win for me). Including that bet means i ended up +36.06 Units with the above bets.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U North +15.5 @1.9

1U +24.5 GWS @1.92

0.5u GWS win @4 (bet365)

0.5U Schulz Most goals group @9.00 (IAS)

1U Hawks +16.5 @1.93 (Bet365)

2U Carl/Adel game line Under 187.5 (TAB) @1.87

1U Western Buldogs +26.5 @2.00 (Betstar)

Round 10
2-0-5

-1.33 Units on non related DT/Disposal bets

I might easy off on these bets.

Next week i will be targetting purely match total lines, disposal markets, goal markets and dream team markets as this is where my success lies.

 

[banana_bus]

Jeez sportsbet still haven't paid out on Dangerfield > Murphy. Not sure what they're waiting for.

 

[Wes Tiger]

ROUND 10
16-0-13

+8.56 Units (Not including what actually happened with the Griffen bet as i didnt post it before the event of actually double the amount of units 55 on Griffen >24.5 disposals @2.00 - it was a slight mistake explained, however has turned out to be a massive win for me). Including that bet means i ended up +36.06 Units with the above bets.

Awesome. You should include it, you posted evidence of it. Congratulations, keep the good feel factor flowing and enjoy your money and put it to good use. You're punting like a champion, don't derail that.

Top class betting!

 

[Wes Tiger]

Jeez sportsbet still haven't paid out on Dangerfield > Murphy. Not sure what they're waiting for.

ring them up. They'll fix it up quick smart.