AFL R10

[Anzac16]

1U - Tom Liberatore > Dion Prestia DT @ $1.85 (Bet 365)

Prestia is a little jet, but averaging 96.8 this year compared to Libba at 101.9. Last 3 week averages actually at 97.7 vs 122.3.

 

[Keystone agony]

Where is the Griffen > 24.5 Disposals @ $2.45?
The Griffen 30+ Disposals has come all the way into $4.50 now, shame I wasn't round to get on.

Im guessing it was also IAS. 25 or more but along with the 30 id say has come in.

There is a group for most disposals and Griffen was paying 12 last i checked but against boyd, libba, ablett ect

 

[Keystone agony]

0.5U Macrae over Swallow @1.87 (bet365)

Macrae avg 105.5 this year and Swallow 97. Macrae has been slowing the last few weeks but I think the bye or week off wouldve helped him with that. Hes the better DTer over Swallow.

1U Dangerfield Under 104.5 DT @1.87
He has only covered this line twice this year his line looks inflated from a big 135 last week. Carlton always tag they kept Montagna and J.Steven quite low in the last game. Likewise swan, beams, pendles the week before that all scoring below there avg. Expecting an Armfield tag which I think for pace and endurance is a good matchup.

0.5U Liberatore over Prestia DT @1.85 (bet365)
Prestia avg 96 this year compared to Liberatore 102. Gold Coast dont tag which should help Liberatore aswell. Libba avg 122 last 3. Prestia avg just 92.7 in last 7. Tailing Anzac16 - good find

27.5U >24.5 disposals R.Griffen @2.00 (IAS)
25U <26.5 disposals R.Griffen @2.15 (Lux)
Doing similar to laam

Going with my last 3 DT bets based on some foxy_dal logic

 

[banana_bus]

banana_bus
Similar bet to what you were looking for before if your keen. I like it especially considering Danger will get tagged hard from the blues.
S.Thompson vs M.Murphy DT H2H (Thompson paying $1.90)
M.Murphy Kerridge tag. ST probably H2H with a Gibbs or another midfielder.

Thanks dude, where is this?

 

[Keystone agony]

Thanks dude, where is this?

Bet365

 

[Keystone agony]

Cab someone explain to me why disposal and goal markets on luxbet dont have .5

Say someone is (examppe Waite) 2+ and 2- what happens if he kicks exactly 2 goals - is it money back?

 

[foxy_dal]

2 units Liberatore over Boyd SC @ $1.75
Statistically pretty even but but as I have said before in previous bets, Boyd seems to have performed above what I expect and is more of a 100-105 average player at his age while Libba should be around 110-115. Has had a huge 139 and 171 in his last 2 games while Boyd has had 97 and 109.

2 units Liberatore over Prestia DT @ $1.85
Similar reasoning to above as Libba is in good form and also Liberatore is averaging 102 to Prestia 97. Interestingly you can get Prestia's DT line at 92.5 and Libba at 107.5 at TAB giving a 15 point diffeent on what 365 have as an even h2h.

Also followed on the Griffen over 25 and 30 tip think that is terrific odds.

 

[stewie griffen]

Crows line for me

 

[Keystone agony]

The TAB do dream team/fantasy lines - shit (Edit: Can i get a link to those foxy_dal

 

[squeezer]

Wasn't aware of TAB doing DT lines. Where exactly are these I've had trouble finding them. Also can you bet on these in store? That could be a way around restrictions unless they can restrict you instore aswell?

 

[Keystone agony]

I have a feeling the game line will go Under 185.5

Adelaide last 3 weeks been keeping scores really low and Carlton avg 173 this year at the MCG. Anyone else?

Also Douglas to get 25 possessions at 2.45 (IAS) not bad

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

2 units Liberatore over Boyd SC @ $1.75
Statistically pretty even but but as I have said before in previous bets, Boyd seems to have performed above what I expect and is more of a 100-105 average player at his age while Libba should be around 110-115. Has had a huge 139 and 171 in his last 2 games while Boyd has had 97 and 109.

2 units Liberatore over Prestia DT @ $1.85
Similar reasoning to above as Libba is in good form and also Liberatore is averaging 102 to Prestia 97. Interestingly you can get Prestia's DT line at 92.5 and Libba at 107.5 at TAB giving a 15 point diffeent on what 365 have as an even h2h.

Also followed on the Griffen over 25 and 30 tip think that is terrific odds.

On these bets:

Libba @ $5 in his SC Group with Boyd the $4 fav on Sportsbet, very good value if you take the above thinking.

$4 Boyd, $5 Libba and Swallow, $5.5 OMeara, $6 Prestia, $7 Bennell, $7 Griffen, $8 Dahlhaus

Again, no bets for me, just throwing it out there for the people...

 

[Spads]

I have a feeling the game line will go Under 185.5

Adelaide last 3 weeks been keeping scores really low and Carlton avg 173 this year at the MCG. Anyone else?

Also Douglas to get 25 possessions at 2.45 (IAS) not bad

This is the only game total I like this weekend. Agree with the under.

 

[airswing]

Hi Guys, If anyone could please post the footy quad approximate dividends that would be much appreciated. Thnks in advance!

 

[Hamingja]

AFL QUADDIE APPROXIMATES
Sel No Winning Team $ Dividend $ Jackpot
Sel - 1 Carlton 1-12 $ 7,040.40 $ 0.00
Sel - 2 Carlton 13-24 $ 7,723.50 $ 0.00
Sel - 3 Carlton 25-36 $ 8,566.00 $ 0.00
Sel - 4 Carlton 37-48 $ 12,252.60 $ 0.00
Sel - 5 Carlton 49-60 $ 43,915.40 $ 0.00
Sel - 6 Carlton 61-72 $ 78,729.30 $ 0.00
Sel - 7 Carlton 72+ $ 72,578.30 $ 0.00
Sel - 8 DRAW $ 136,461.20 $ 0.00
Sel - 9 Adelaide Crows 1-12 $ 10,553.60 $ 0.00
Sel - 10 Adelaide Crows 13-24 $ 9,724.00 $ 0.00
Sel - 11 Adelaide Crows 25-36 $ 11,813.50 $ 0.00
Sel - 12 Adelaide Crows 37-48 $ 15,147.80 $ 0.00
Sel - 13 Adelaide Crows 49-60 $ 23,744.10 $ 0.00
Sel - 14 Adelaide Crows 61-72 $ 31,781.30 $ 0.00
Sel - 15 Adelaide Crows 72+ $ 33,628.20 $ 0.00
Quaddie Pool Total $ 114896.00

 

[Willzzz]

Cab someone explain to me why disposal and goal markets on luxbet dont have .5

Say someone is (examppe Waite) 2+ and 2- what happens if he kicks exactly 2 goals - is it money back?

It's cause unlike DT, Disps, the difference between say 2 goals and 3 goals is so much bigger than 105 and 106 DT points,

It just means that it is will push, should really be Waite < 2 Goals DNB (Draw No Bet).
You will get your money back whether you bet on the Unders or Overs if he ends up with 2 Goals.

 

[Hamingja]

Go vic tab website > footy tab > betting schedule and approximates (bulleted small text link between the footy tab menu selector and the matches left) > AFL quaddie approximates in the bottom right corner of the pop up

TAB do their best to hide it.

 

[Willzzz]

Think the value has gone out of the Pick Your Own Disposals for Ryan Griffen. Will be going small on the SC Group 1 Market though, think there is still some value there.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Think the value has gone out of the Pick Your Own Disposals for Ryan Griffen. Will be going small on the SC Group 1 Market though, think there is still some value there.

What do you thinking Douglas 25 disposals or more mate? 2.45 at sportsbet. Reckon he'll get a lot of attention from Carlton?

 

[Willzzz]

What do you thinking Douglas 25 disposals or more mate? 2.45 at sportsbet. Reckon he'll get a lot of attention from Carlton?

I would much prefer a DT/SC Douglas bet.
His not a big ball-winner but does mark/tackle more than others.

Is in good form and I think he will go under the radar against the Blues so might be worth having a bit on, but I won't be getting on myself.

 

[laam]

tailing the liber play
1.5u liberatore > prestia DT @ 1.85

 

[Keystone agony]

I have a feeling the game line will go Under 185.5

Adelaide last 3 weeks been keeping scores really low and Carlton avg 173 this year at the MCG. Anyone else?

Also Douglas to get 25 possessions at 2.45 (IAS) not bad

What do you thinking Douglas 25 disposals or more mate? 2.45 at sportsbet. Reckon he'll get a lot of attention from Carlton?

As you can see i think there is value. Also Luxbet have anything Under 23 posses @1.87 (If you want to cover). However youd be devastated if he get exactly 24 possessions. Probably not worth losing it all for a small gain.

Carlton do like to shut down on opposition midfielders.

 

[foxy_dal]

Wasn't aware of TAB doing DT lines. Where exactly are these I've had trouble finding them. Also can you bet on these in store? That could be a way around restrictions unless they can restrict you instore aswell?

I just looked at them on app so it should be under AFL somewhere, maybe go to the game and it should be a market under there. They only seem to offer 2 DT over/under lines a game though. 2 disposal over/unders as well for some more unique players too I find.

 

[BloodRet]

Multi
Gold Coast 40+
Carlton 1-39

@7.50

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

As you can see i think there is value. Also Luxbet have anything Under 23 posses @1.87 (If you want to cover). However youd be devastated if he get exactly 24 possessions. Probably not worth losing it all for a small gain.

Carlton do like to shut down on opposition midfielders.