AFL R10

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Keystone agony said:
Yeh its a tough one because he has such a great record but i feel Guthrie will do a job on him and skilled stadium probably wont suit Boomer like ES does.

You have to go with what you feel is going to happen and back your own judgement

Good odds aswell so cant really argue against it
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Yeah if it was at $2.5 or even $3 i'd probably ignore it but at $4, it's worth a go
 
Daniel1812 said:
I'm tempted to put Josh Jenkins to score more than 3 goals , he will play against Sam Rowe who's not that great at defending and Josh Jenkins is in really good form at the moment.
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Where are those markets Daniel

Ive put
0.5 Units on Jay Schulz MG group @9.00 vs (Schoulz has kicked some big bags this season and with no Gibson/Lake i think he could be on the end of a succesful game for the power)
J.Riewoldt - Favourite @5 for a reason should o okay even though out of form vs GWS
Cameron - Expect Rance to hold him reasonably well
J.J.Kennedy - Collingwood tall defenders have been going pretty well especially Frost
Cloke - E.Mckenzie will be a tough day, max 3 i reckon
T.Walker - Still coming back from injury
Gunston - As the main forward will get the best defenders and hawks a weakened side
L.Thomas - Will be tough against the cats at skilled will get a good defender in Enright or Hunt.
T.Lynch (GC) - Will get Morris, max 3
Henderson - Hasnt been in form and Rutten/Talia good defenders
Crameri - Will kick 2-3 max get someone like a May
 

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Keystone agony said:
Where are those markets Daniel

Ive put
0.5 Units on Jay Schulz MG group @9.00 vs (Schoulz has kicked some big bags this season and with no Gibson/Lake i think he could be on the end of a succesful game for the power)
J.Riewoldt - Favourite @5 for a reason should o okay even though out of form vs GWS
Cameron - Expect Rance to hold him reasonably well
J.J.Kennedy - Collingwood tall defenders have been going pretty well especially Frost
Cloke - E.Mckenzie will be a tough day, max 3 i reckon
T.Walker - Still coming back from injury
Gunston - As the main forward will get the best defenders and hawks a weakened side
L.Thomas - Will be tough against the cats at skilled will get a good defender in Enright or Hunt.
T.Lynch (GC) - Will get Morris, max 3
Henderson - Hasnt been in form and Rutten/Talia good defenders
Crameri - Will kick 2-3 max get someone like a May
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When they come out tomorrow , sorry I was just mentioning it.
 
Daniel1812 said:
I'm tempted to put Josh Jenkins to score more than 3 goals , he will play against Sam Rowe who's not that great at defending and Josh Jenkins is in really good form at the moment.
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On paper he has to get the third best defender, given one and two go to Tex and Pods.

Just to clarify is that 4 goals?
 
I think it will more purely be more the best matchups are.

For me Rowe suits playing on Jenkins and i dont think hes the worst defender. Jamison probably regarded as the best key defender at Carlton will likely play on Tex. Whoever else they have to go to pods im not sure who they go with as there 3rd tall lately. Maybe white?

You dont play some average sized average footballer on a 200cm jumping giant
 
Keystone agony said:
You dont play some average sized average footballer on a 200cm jumping giant
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Do you or any Blues supporters know who went to Pods last year?

In the NAB Challenge game - McKernan caused the Blues a lot of problems and kicked 3 goals. JJ kicked 2.2 and probably should have realistically kicked 4. Pods was rested after HT. and Tex didnt play. Im sure Blues supporters will tell that it wasnt a trial game and was played with a lot of intensity and effort by the players. One thing though, the Blues did do well in that game and led the Crows at 3QT, but had rested a lot of players for the 4th. This match is going to be very interesting.
 
GROTTO said:
Do you or any Blues supporters know who went to Pods last year?

In the NAB Challenge game - McKernan caused the Blues a lot of problems and kicked 3 goals. JJ kicked 2.2 and probably should have realistically kicked 4. Pods was rested after HT. and Tex didnt play. Im sure Blues supporters will tell that it wasnt a trial game and was played with a lot of intensity and effort by the players. One thing though, the Blues did do well in that game and led the Crows at 3QT, but had rested a lot of players for the 4th. This match is going to be very interesting.
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Playing for geelong last year I believe henderson went to him. But carlton have been using rowe on those tallish/2nd ruck type blokes ie stanley/j.white whilst jamison takes the best forward riewoldt and white has been used as the 3rd defender I think he will take pods.
 
Keystone agony said:
Playing for geelong last year I believe henderson went to him. But carlton have been using rowe on those tallish/2nd ruck type blokes ie stanley/j.white whilst jamison takes the best forward riewoldt and white has been used as the 3rd defender I think he will take pods.
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Who are you leaning towards this week?

Im liking Roos, GWS, Pies, Power, Crows, Suns. Paying ~ $36 (no wager all those results could go either way without shocking anyone - I guess maybe an Eagles or a Dogs win would surprise a few.
 

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I think people are getting a little carried away with the Crows performance last week, it was season on the line type stuff with 100 odd tackles. I highly doubt they will back that kind of intensity up. The only thing swaying me to tip them is that Carlton are coming off the bye, otherwise Blues have the edge at home. Genuine 50/50 for mine.

Locking in the Pies to bounce back at home. GC. Port 1-39 maybe? Friday night is a no bet for me.
 
Sketi said:
The only thing swaying me to tip them is that Carlton are coming off the bye, otherwise Blues have the edge at home. Genuine 50/50 for mine.
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Blues have lost their past 4 games at the MCG.

I do agree though it is a fairly closer game to call and not a 60:40 game as the bookies have made it out to be.

Why should coming off a bye make a difference? The Blues may have lost the past couple of years coming off a bye but they have also played the likes of Hawthorn and Geelong which realistically they would have gone in as underdogs in any case.

If you believe it is 50:50 then the Blues at $2.85 1-39 would be great value for you.
 
GROTTO said:
Didn't the Crows and Suns come off a bye and won?
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With the Crows the Pies had come off the bye as well so was irrelevant. The Suns played St Kilda - not 50 50.

Last weekend was the first weekend this year where there was a mix of teams which just had the bye vs teams that played the week before.

The Tigers were the most notable bye victim, and the Cats went down as well.
 
Sketi said:
With the Crows the Pies had come off the bye as well so was irrelevant. The Suns played St Kilda - not 50 50.

Last weekend was the first weekend this year where there was a mix of teams which just had the bye vs teams that played the week before.

The Tigers were the most notable bye victim, and the Cats went down as well.
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So with that there is GWS, Eagles, Power, Hawks and Blues all coming off the bye.

I presume your argument is that GWS, Eagles and Blues will be all bye victims?

EDIT - All these teams are going in as "underdogs" into their games in the first place, so I guess its hard to say there is only the bye issue at hand.

I have only looked at Carlton, I would be interested if you looked at other teams coming off the bye going in as favorites and lost, that would be an interesting stat.
 
GROTTO said:
Pods has copped the best defender since R1 until Tex returned. MM might even put the third on Tex given he is still finding his feet, knowing that wily old fox.
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Your football knowledge is unmatched.

GROTTO said:
Didn't the Crows and Suns come off a bye and won?
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The Crows played another team off a bye, one of them has to win. Suns played a horrible team.
 
GROTTO said:
So with that there is GWS, Eagles, Power, Hawks and Blues all coming off the bye.

I presume your argument is that GWS, Eagles and Blues will be all bye victims?

EDIT - All these teams are going in as "underdogs" into their games in the first place, so I guess its hard to say there is only the bye issue at hand.

I have only looked at Carlton, I would be interested if you looked at other teams coming off the bye going in as favorites and lost, that would be an interesting stat.
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The Dogs are coming off one as well, further strengthening the case for them losing up in Metricon.
 
iluvparis said:
I'm sure in the long term the bye has been proven irrelevant.

I have no stats to back this up.
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Didn't someone post a small graph in last weeks thread in regards to this? It seemed to suggest to that evenly matched contests would often go the way of the non bye team, and that non bye underdogs had their fare share of wins too.
 
My stats have coming off the bye (including week off before a prelim) as being worth about a 2 point disadvantage. So yea statistically noticeable but basically irrelevant.
 

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