AFL R10

[Anzac16]

2U - Adam Treloar Over 96.5 DT (Luxbet)

Love this bet. Has 124 and 159 in his 2 games at GIANTS Stadium this year. Averaging 102 this year. Should do very well in a game that GWS will be competitive in.

1U - Jay Schultz 2.5+ Goals @ $2.25 (Luxbet)

Has been amazing so far this year and comes up against a weakened Hawks backline. Slightly risky but feel like he will slot 3 or 4 home.

 

[foxy_dal]

No SC H2H out yet so have had a harder look at DT than usual.

2 units Cunnington over Ziebell DT @ $1.85
Average of 98 v 83 and a 3-1-1 H2H record this year. I expect the averages to be closer once Ziebell hits full fitness but a 15 point gap on current form is good enough. Cunningtons last 6 have been particularly good where he has averaged 106.

1 unit Lewis over Hartlett DT @ $1.85
Average of 98 v 95. Think Mitchell/others being out can only help Lewis get more of the ball evident by a 99, 122 and 90 since Mitchel lwent down (which is about his average anyway). Lewis has 4 100+ scores to Hartlett who has 2 and is more known for having a big DT game or a score around 80 and Lewis is consistent around 90-100. Only goign 1 unit due to the possibility Port run away with it.

2 units Burgoyne over Birchall DT @ $1.78
Average of 96 v 88 and a H2H record of 5-3. Burgoyne has been attending more centre bounces with Mitchell out and has just had a great year. Epect him to continue his good year with a score of 90+.

2 units Dahlhaus over Cooney DT @ $1.85
Average of 97 v 89 and a H2H record of 4-3. Just taking this based on the averages really.

4 units Ablett over Boyd DT @1.55
Short odds but I jump at any Ablett fantasy bets. Average of 124 to 106 speaks for itself. Boyd has also been a bit quieter in recent weeks with a high of 107 in the last 4 weeks which isn't enough to compete with Gaz.

YTD 65-1-27 +57.16 units

 

[boyOboy]

No SC H2H out yet so have had a harder look at DT than usual.
2 units Cunnington over Ziebell DT @ $1.85
Average of 98 v 83 and a 3-1-1 H2H record this year. I expect the averages to be closer once Ziebell hits full fitness but a 15 point gap on current form is good enough. Cunningtons last 6 have been particularly good where he has averaged 106.

Thank you always for your 'guide'. Will be awaiting your SC analysis intently

 

[laam]

just got on the schultz one too

1.5u schultz > 2.5 goals @ 2.25
2u selwood>106.5 DT @ 1.85
1u griffen < 93.5 DT @ 1.87
1u ebert > 104.5 DT @ 1.87
2u ablett>boyd DT @ 1.55

 

[Keystone agony]

DT Bets and more
1U Pendlebury over 110.5 @1.87 (IAS)
Avg over this so far this year and im expecting the pies mids to win the game for the pies and dominate, he may get the s.slwood tag but hes hardy been keeping players down and pendles is one the hardest to tag behind ablett. I reckon there will be a few 120+ pie mid scores.

1U K.Simpson under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Seems a huge line, has only covered 3/8 this year and 1/4 @MCG. Avgs 100 this year.

1.5U Dangerfield over M.Murphy @1.85 (IAS)
M.Murphy will cop the hard Kerridge tag. Kerridge has been one of the best taggers this year. Dangerfield has also gone 4 out of his 4 100+
2.5U M.Murphy under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Read above, kerridge tag

1U B.Harvey under 102.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Guthrie will get the job and i expect him to do well. Quite a high line for Boomer and i think its mainly due to his 144 last week. Skilled stadium i dont think will suit boomer like ES does or would
1U M.Stokes over B.Harvey @1.87 (BET365)
Stokes to play more midfield without SJ. Harvey to get Guthrie tag.

0.5U J.Selwood to win fantasy group (Lux) @6.50
Should have a very good game against North who dont tag
0.5U J.Selwood to win disposal group (Lux) @6.00
Read above
1U J.Selwood over 106.5 DT (BET365) @1.85
1U J.Selwood 30+ disposals @3.00 (TW)

1.5U L.Shuey under 23.5 disposals (Lux) @1.87
Macaffer tag
1U L.Shuey under 88.5 (Lux) @1.87
Macaffer tag
1U Masten over Shuey @1.80 (bet365)
Shuey to get Macaffer tag I reckon

1U K.Cornes Over 104.5 (Lux) @1.87
Avg 110 this year and avg 127 at the Adelaide oval this year
1.2U K.Cornes Under 110.5 @1.75 (Bet365)
Going for the middle, expecting the night mqtch to maybe be low scoring against the hawks
1U R.Griffen over 93.5 @1.87 (Lux)
GC dont tag and he is starting to his straps the last few weeks
0.5U Griffen 30 posses+ @8.50 (IAS)
55U >24.5 disposals R.Griffen @2.00 (IAS)
25U <26.5 disposals R.Griffen @2.15 (Lux)

0.5U Macrae over Swallow @1.87 (bet365)
Macrae avg 105.5 this year and Swallow 97.
Macrae has been slowing the last few weeks but I think the bye or week off wouldve helped him with that. Hes the better DTer over Swallow.

1U Dangerfield Under 104.5 DT @1.87
He has only covered this line twice this year his line looks inflated from a big 135 last week. Carlton always tag they kept Montagna and J.Steven quite low in the last game. Likewise swan, beams, pendles the week before that all scoring below there avg. Expecting an Armfield tag which I think for pace and endurance is a good matchup.

0.5U Liberatore over Prestia DT @1.85 (bet365)
Prestia avg 96 this year compared to Liberatore 102. Gold Coast dont tag which should help Liberatore aswell. Libba avg 122 last 3. Prestia avg just 92.7 in last 7. Tailing Anzac16 - good find

1.5U Deledio over 24.5 disposals (Lux) @1.87
GWS havnt been tagging and Deledio is just getting back to his best, im pretty confident with this one against a weak side. Also in his 200th game.

1U J.Schulz over 2.5 Goals @2.25 (Lux)
Against a side without Lake and Gibson he will have a pretty easy defender and i expect Port to win. Also really like the value.

1U Cameron under 2.5 goals @2.00
I feel he will play back. Frost and N.Haynes are out and hes been named down back I think hes a good chance to play there

1U J.Riewoldt over 2.5 Goals @2.35 (Lux)
Against GWS who let J.J.Kennedy kick 11 goals. Good value aswell. Is paying just 5 to kick the most goals of anyone this week.

0.5U J.Ziebell over 21.5 disposals @1.87 (Lux)
Has had well over this in his last 2 weeks and is only building up his fitness. Likes playing geelong and i think will like it at skilled in a tight close congested game.
0.2U Ziebell most disposals @23.00 group (Lux)
Value and read above. 30 may be enough to win this.
0.2U Elliot MGS @8 (Came 2nd - 1 off)

 

[Keystone agony]

Ablett vs Boyd
Im tempted to take Boyd at 2.57 as good value. Why?

I feel Ablett doesnt bother against the weaker sides unless he has to for them to win. I also feel he will get Picked who is in form as a tagger doing good jobs lately on N.Jones (69) and Stanton (68).

Boyd has also avg 121 DT points against the suns since they started

 

[Sketi]

Some decent ins for Hawks, Hodge is huge for leadership. Backline still depleted. Everyone still confident on Port?

 

[Keystone agony]

Wow. I thought it would just be in the side bar!!

View attachment 57999

Whos this with?

Also BETSTAR offering $2.00 H2Hs 2 hours within the start of the game

 

[Keystone agony]

Some decent ins for Hawks, Hodge is huge for leadership. Backline still depleted. Everyone still confident on Port?

Ive got on Hawks +16.5 @1.92 still think they are a much better chance than 2.85 now

 

[The_Doctor]

Whos this with?

Also BETSTAR offering $2.00 H2Hs 2 hours within the start of the game

You got a link to this mate?

 

[The_Doctor]

The other one is with Sportsbet

 

[alex mcanulty]

If you got a 6 leg multi for example and the first 5 have all won meaning you need just one more leg to come in to get the biccies, do you bet on the opposite of what you need to ensure profit. Say the last leg you need west coast at home to beat Richmond to make 1000 dollars profit off a 200 buck initial bet, hedging would for example be putting 200 on Richmond at 4-1 to guarantee 600 dollars profit if Richmond win, or 800 bucks if west coast win instead of 1000. By letting it go by and not hedging if rchmond were to win you'd be up shit creek.

Thanks bro

 

[laam]

1U R.Griffen over 93.5 @1.87 (Lux)
GC dont tag and he is starting to his straps the last few weeks

I went the other way on griffen, last week was his only game over this line and that was due to an incredible 15 tackles. He only had 20 disposals. Not sure if i'd say he is back just yet.

 

[laam]

tailed you on these
1u simpsons < 103.5 DT @ 1.87
1u k cornes > 27.5 disposals @ 1.87
1u riewoldt > 2.5 goals @ 2.35
1u deledio > 24.5 disposals @ 1.87

 

[banana_bus]

DT Bets and more

1.5U Dangerfield over M.Murphy @1.85 (IAS)
M.Murphy will cop the hard Kerridge tag. Kerridge has been one of the best taggers this year. Dangerfield has also gone 4 out of his 4 100+
2.5U M.Murphy under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Read above, kerridge tag

Awesome write up KA, is that Danger vs Murphy market anywhere else?

 

[Wes Tiger]

Thanks bro

 

[Wes Tiger]

Catters won what, 45 of their last 47 home games? Stevie G is a big loss, Geelong strong enough to cover it though. Anyone like the Roos odds? I wouldn't mind throwing some on for sheer value. Just a 20 for a bitta fun.

 

[BloodRet]

Geelong/NM 1U 1st QR goals 9-10 @ 6.70
Geelong/NM,1U 2:01-3:00 first goal @ 6:00
Geelong/NM 2U Motlop 3+ goals @ 3.75
GWS to be leading at 1/2 time go on to lose @ 7.50

 

[Dominion]

Thanks bro

If you had never heard of hedging, you probably don't realize that doing what Wes Tiger mentioned is a very stupid way of punting (not having a go at you Wes Tiger, I understand you were only explaining what a hedge actually was and it was a good example).

If you want to guarantee yourself a profit after getting the first 5 legs of a 6 leg multi... JUST MAKE IT A FIVE LEG MULTI ASDF.

In Wes Tiger's example, if you can get Richmond at $5, then West Coast were probably about $1.20. So take them out of your original multi, and the payout goes down from $1200 ($1000 profit) to $1000 ($800). Ta-da, you're guaranteed a $800 regardless of who wins the last game, and you don't risk getting $200 less if Richmond win.

Whenever you make a multi, look at what the payout would be if you took off the last leg. If that amount is too much for you to be comfortable putting on a bet, and you would rather just be guaranteed the money, leave the last leg off. You should never be in a situation where you have to bet against your own bet just because you are uncomfortable with how much you are risking, because you decided to risk that much when you made the multi (obviously betting against yourself for other reasons e.g. late outs, finding out the whole team has the flu, odds changing a heap in your favour etc. is different and might make sense in the right situations)

 

[chrisdon16]

Geelong/NM 1U 1st QR goals 9-10 @ 6.70
Geelong/NM,1U 2:01-3:00 first goal @ 6:00
Geelong/NM 2U Motlop 3+ goals @ 3.75
GWS to be leading at 1/2 time go on to lose @ 7.50

Have you researched both teams first quarters?

 

[chrisdon16]

The total has gone from 167.5 to 170.5 overnight. Someone is putting big money on the over. Whoever it is, keep doing it!

 

[Lensen]

If you had never heard of hedging, you probably don't realize that doing what Wes Tiger mentioned is a very stupid way of punting (not having a go at you Wes Tiger, I understand you were only explaining what a hedge actually was and it was a good example).

If you want to guarantee yourself a profit after getting the first 5 legs of a 6 leg multi... JUST MAKE IT A FIVE LEG MULTI ASDF.

In Wes Tiger's example, if you can get Richmond at $5, then West Coast were probably about $1.20. So take them out of your original multi, and the payout goes down from $1200 ($1000 profit) to $1000 ($800). Ta-da, you're guaranteed a $800 regardless of who wins the last game, and you don't risk getting $200 less if Richmond win.

Whenever you make a multi, look at what the payout would be if you took off the last leg. If that amount is too much for you to be comfortable putting on a bet, and you would rather just be guaranteed the money, leave the last leg off. You should never be in a situation where you have to bet against your own bet just because you are uncomfortable with how much you are risking, because you decided to risk that much when you made the multi (obviously betting against yourself for other reasons e.g. late outs, finding out the whole team has the flu, odds changing a heap in your favour etc. is different and might make sense in the right situations)

yeh but wat if i wanna guarantee a return? duh

 

[chrisdon16]

Tonights game,
4th quarter only

-Geelong - 3.5
-Geelong total over 22.5
-Total over 42.5

 

[Keystone agony]

You got a link to this mate?

https://www.betstar.com.au/promotions/

 

[Lensen]

https://www.betstar.com.au/promotions/

that's $2 lines, not h2h