AFL R11

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TheKanga

TheKanga

Brownlow Medallist
Veteran 10k Posts
May 31, 2011
18,726
14,458
Hobart
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Melbourne City
I hope you guys don't mind me making the thread a little early.

Early odds:

Sydney - 1.56
vs.
Geelong - 2.40

Line is 10.5

St Kilda - 9.50
vs.
Collingwood - 1.05

Line is 48.5

Melbourne - 6.00
vs.
Port Adelaide - 1.12

Line is 36.5

Brisbane - 2.70
vs.
Carlton - 1.45

Line is 13.5

Essendon - 1.62
vs.
Richmond - 2.25

Line is 7.5

Adelaide - 1.60
vs.
Gold Coast - 2.230

Line is 7.5

Western Bulldogs - 4.00
vs.
Fremantle - 1.24

Line is 26.5

Hawthorn - 1.01
vs.
GWS - 14.00

Line is 68.5

West Coast - 1.60
vs.
North Melbourne - 2.30

Line is 9.5
 

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See some early value in the lines for Carlton, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Richmond. As good as GC can be, if the Crows win today against the Blues, that line will easily double given the game is at AO and their performance against Collingwood there.

If anyone is inclined to jump at that Port line, remember that the game is in Darwin. Still think Port will win comfortably, but it depends on the conditions.
 
I feel things i wrote down on paper that could be good bets.
Not sure if i'll actually bet yet or not will have to see. (will add stakes if i decide to)

Geelong (+10.5)
Geelong SU @ 2.40

St Kilda (+48.5)
Collingwood 1-39


Carlton (-13.5)
Carlton 40+ - can get 3.90 for this atm

Richmond (+7.5)
Richmond SU
Richmond 40+ @ 9.00 (value)

Not sure why Essendon are such warm favs, they have been woeful i know Richmond have been as well.
But at least they can score goals, Essendon's fwd line is a mess.

Hawthorn (-68.5)
Hawthorn 100+

West Coast (-9.5)
West Coast 1-39
 
So far I like Swans, Freo and Blues. Carlton should be buoyed by recent showings. Playing Brisbane an ideal opportunity to keep the good flow going. I imagine that $1.45 would have shortened after todays win vs the crows, and by game time would be surprised if it isn't $1.20 or so.
 
Wes Tiger said:
So far I like Swans, Freo and Blues. Carlton should be buoyed by recent showings. Playing Brisbane an ideal opportunity to keep the good flow going. I imagine that $1.45 would have shortened after todays win vs the crows, and by game time would be surprised if it isn't $1.20 or so.
Click to expand...

Would be interested to hear your thoughts on Sydney/Geelong
It's one of those games i can see going either way and being very close.
Might end up making it a no bet game.
 
TheKanga said:
Would be interested to hear your thoughts on Sydney/Geelong
It's one of those games i can see going either way and being very close.
Might end up making it a no bet game.
Click to expand...
Gee Kanga I'm the last guy you should take advice from but I just fancy the swans due to their recent rise in form. Looking ominous at this present point in time I just feel theyre gonna have another big scalp after knocking off the injury riddled hawks a couple of weeks ago and the manner in which they destroyed Essendon has me taking notice. Dynamite mids, power house forwards and guys who can crumb off them and I think the cats have to drop some throughout the year stating the obvious and this is one of those games. I know the catters have the recent wood over the swannies but feel the swans are just starting to hit their straps and will get the win on a Thursdee night at the SCG. Hannez, Goodsie, McVeigh, Malceski, Parker, Jack, Jetta, Franklin, Reid, Tippet, Shaw, Kennedy, Bird, Richards, just a star studded team I could go on.

I like Swans h2h. I wouldn't bet big however as the odds aren't worth it and after all, it is Geelong. At the start of the year I had Freo vs the Swans in the big one and I'm standing by that.
 
Im already getting sucked in. Getting on alot of the favourite lines which isnt a great sign.

0.5U each Pednlebury/Beams to get 35 possessions @4.90 (IAS)
0.5U N.Riewoldt over 2 goals or more @1.70 (lux)
1U T.Cloke over 2 goals @1.80 (Lux)

0.5U -4.5 Adelaide @1.91 (Bet365)
1.5U Adelaide SU @1.75 (Sportsbet) - money back offer if they lead at any break
0.6U GC/GC/GC @4.20 (Lux)
1U GC @2.45 (Luxbet)

0.5U Geelong +17.5 @2 (Betstar)
1.5U Geelong SU @2.45 (Sportsbet) - Money back offer if they lead at any break
0.5U Geelong SU @3.05 (Sportsbet) -
0.5U Geelong SU @2.90 (B365)
0.5U Geel 1-39 @3.40 (Betstar)
2U Syd 1-39 @2.25 (Betstar)
1.5U Sydney every quarter leader @2.25 (TAB)
1U Geel vs Syd Uunder 178.5 @1.91 (B365)
2U J.Kennedy Under 115.5 @1.87 (TAB)
1U Kelly under 100.5 @1.87 (Lux)
0.1U each on Stringer/Mcveigh kick first goal @34
0.1U Murdoch FGS @23

0.5U -33.5 Freo @1.91 (Bet365)

2U Hawks -69.5 @1.91 (B365)
0.5U GWS Lowest scoring team for the round @5 (TAB)

0.5U D.Merrett to kick any of the first 3 goals of the game @6
0.5U Brisbane Lowest scoreing team for round @11 (TAB)
0.5U -15.5 Carl @1.91 (Bet365)
1U Mclean over 23.5 Disposals @1.76

0.5U Richmond SU @2.35 (Bet365)
0.5U Richmond and Ess TML Under 171.5 @1.91 (Bet365)
1U Essendon Under 90.5 @1.88 (Sports/IAS)

Multi
4U Pies, Port, Hawks, Freo, Eagles @2.27 (+15% Sportbet bonus) Would win 6.5U
3U Pies, Port, Hawks, Freo, Syd vs Geel Under 178.5 @2.65 (+20% B365 Bonus bet) Win 6.5U

Adel vs GC
I still question who the Gold Coast have exactly beat this year? North Melbourne - a side that has shown to be up and down. Travelling and playing at such an oval as Adelaide with Adelaide needing to rebound from defeat to Carlton. Feel Walker will be better for the run and the crows are just starting to get going they look good across the entire field.

Wbd vs Freo
Gee wish i got on the -26.5 line thats money for jam. They have been in good nick lately Freo and been keeping sides down on scores. Purely i just can not for the life of me see the buldogs scoreing. Cooney a chance to be out. Still dont think their midfield is in the form they would like - smashed around the congestion/clearances against GC it felt by watching the game.

Carl vs Brisbane
Carlton have been quite good for the last 5 weeks now (however against little opposition - but this doesnt change). Brisbane are a very young side, with no forward line and are starting to really struggle. I think Carlton could trance Brisbane here if there downhill skiers and midfielders get going. Judd a chance to return but wont be required.

Geel vs Syd
Hard to bet on this game i feel they have the odds spot on. However i think Sydney will win this game. Geelong have a hard turn around from Subi to Skilled to SCG with 6 day breaks. Whilst Sydney return off a minimized or optimal bye period and with doubts on Lonergan and the form of Sydney with return of possibly Pyke and Mcglynn just to add even more to this already strong Sydney outfit. Feel Grundy/Richards can really take Hawkins aswell. Ill be waiting on this game i think Geelong might come in slightly.

Rich vs Ess
Feel this is like a grandfinal for both teams at the dreamtime. Maric likely to return, feel its time for Foley not to start as sub will help this Richmond side plus they now have quite alot of confidence. This along with the fact the Dons cant kick a score the tigers should be closer to even money and will come in. Massive game for both clubs. I also feel this will be an Unders game, both teams struggling to kick scores whilst the dons are defending well.

Hawks vs GWS
Well GWS have been woeful and dont look like kicking any sort of score. Whilst the hawks are known for there scoring ability and defense. Will be massivily one sided. With Roughead back i just feel their forward line is going to kick heaps whilst there defense will let little slip through.
 
Last edited:
Keystone agony said:
Im already getting sucked in. Getting on alot of the favourite lines which isnt a great sign.

0.5U -4.5 Adelaide @1.91 (Bet365)
0.5U -33.5 Freo @1.91 (Bet365)
0.5U -15.5 Carl @1.91 (Bet365)
2U Hawks -69.5 @1.91 (B365)

0.5U Richmond SU @2.35 (Bet365)
0.5U Richmond and Ess TML Under 171.5 (Bet365)

Adel vs GC
I still question who the Gold Coast have exactly beat this year? North Melbourne - a side that has shown to be up and down. Travelling and playing at such an oval as Adelaide with Adelaide needing to rebound from defeat to Carlton. Feel Walker will be better for the run and the crows are just starting to get going they look good across the entire field.

Wbd vs Freo
Gee wish i got on the -26.5 line thats money for jam. They have been in good nick lately Freo and been keeping sides down on scores. Purely i just can not for the life of me see the buldogs scoreing. Cooney a chance to be out. Still dont think their midfield is in the form they would like - smashed around the congestion/clearances against GC it felt by watching the game.

Carl vs Brisbane
Carlton have been quite good for the last 5 weeks now (however against little opposition - but this doesnt change). Brisbane are a very young side, with no forward line and are starting to really struggle. I think Carlton could trance Brisbane here if there downhill skiers and midfielders get going. Judd a chance to return but wont be required.

Geel vs Syd
Hard to bet on this game i feel they have the odds spot on. However i think Sydney will win this game. Geelong have a hard turn around from Subi to Skilled to SCG with 6 day breaks. Whilst Sydney return off a minimized or optimal bye period and with doubts on Lonergan and the form of Sydney with return of possibly Pyke and Mcglynn just to add even more to this already strong Sydney outfit. Feel Grundy/Richards can really take Hawkins aswell. Ill be waiting on this game i think Geelong might come in slightly.

Rich vs Ess
Feel this is like a grandfinal for both teams at the dreamtime. Maric likely to return, feel its time for Foley not to start as sub will help this Richmond side plus they now have quite alot of confidence. This along with the fact the Dons cant kick a score the tigers should be closer to even money and will come in. Massive game for both clubs. I also feel this will be an Unders game, both teams struggling to kick scores whilst the dons are defending well.

Hawks vs GWS
Well GWS have been woeful and dont look like kicking any sort of score. Whilst the hawks are known for there scoring ability and defense. Will be massivily one sided. With Roughead back i just feel their forward line is going to kick heaps whilst there defense will let little slip through.
Click to expand...
Not bad bets by any stretch of the imagination. I think your units aren't that big, be careful if they are. You cleaned up this weekend make sure you don't give a lot back. Youve won a lot of units, if the moneys pretty big to you what you've won, make sure it goes to something awesome/helpful like a holiday, bills, whatever. Just don't give it all back and turn your awesome positive experience into a negative.

Sorry for the lecture son :l
 
I think everyone should be really really careful backing Richmond.

If this game was last week after the loss to Melbourne, Essendon would be 1.20 favorites.

Sure if Richmond play their run-and-carry game like they did last week and more importantly last year when they finished half a game outside the top 4, they should be a huge chance.
________________________________________________________________________________
I can't see Freo smashing the Dogs really, especially in Melbourne, and especially coming off the bye. Very hot and cold team the Dockers, won't be touching them again until I'm certain that they've turned the corner.
________________________________________________________________________________
After watching the Crows play yesterday (admittedly I only watched the second half) and last week, I think they should dispose of the Suns at Adelaide Oval. Get on this one early though - if Ablett gets suspended (unlikely but you never know with this tribunal) they will shorten significantly.


On a slightly unrelated topic - WTF was Sanderson thinking subbing out Rutten and putting JPod down back on Menzel? That move literally cost them the game, they would have won by 2-3 goals if he didnt do this.
 
Last edited:
banana_bus said:
I think everyone should be really really careful backing Richmond.

If this game was last week after the loss to Melbourne, Essendon would be 1.20 favorites.

Sure if Richmond play their run-and-carry game like they did last week and more importantly last year when they finished half a game outside the top 4, they should be a huge chance.
________________________________________________________________________________
I can't see Freo smashing the Dogs really, especially in Melbourne, and especially coming off the bye. Very hot and cold team the Dockers, won't be touching them again until I'm certain that they've turned the corner.
________________________________________________________________________________
After watching the Crows play yesterday (admittedly I only watched the second half) and last week, I think they should dispose of the Suns at Adelaide Oval. Get on this one early though - if Ablett gets suspended (unlikely but you never know with this tribunal) they will shorten significantly.


On a slightly unrelated topic - WTF was Sanderson thinking subbing out Rutten and putting JPod down back on Menzel? That move literally cost them the game, they would have won by 2-3 goals if he didnt do this.
Click to expand...

Only Sanderson knows............... I would've put Luke Brown on him! I just wanted to smash the TV
 

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banana_bus said:
I think everyone should be really really careful backing Richmond.

If this game was last week after the loss to Melbourne, Essendon would be 1.20 favorites.

Sure if Richmond play their run-and-carry game like they did last week and more importantly last year when they finished half a game outside the top 4, they should be a huge chance.
________________________________________________________________________________
I can't see Freo smashing the Dogs really, especially in Melbourne, and especially coming off the bye. Very hot and cold team the Dockers, won't be touching them again until I'm certain that they've turned the corner.
________________________________________________________________________________
After watching the Crows play yesterday (admittedly I only watched the second half) and last week, I think they should dispose of the Suns at Adelaide Oval. Get on this one early though - if Ablett gets suspended (unlikely but you never know with this tribunal) they will shorten significantly.


On a slightly unrelated topic - WTF was Sanderson thinking subbing out Rutten and putting JPod down back on Menzel? That move literally cost them the game, they would have won by 2-3 goals if he didnt do this.
Click to expand...

1. Yeh but Essendon have been woeful for quite some time and even before that. I admit we actually played better against the swans than what the scoreboard ended up showing and pretty much after being 7 goals to nil we went toe to toe with them for the rest of the match - whether Sydney took the foot off the pedal (nor here nor there) - was a pretty intense game to the end.

2. I think the dogs are going to have to kick about 70 points no to get smashed. Fremantle just handed geelong a similar margin of defeat. They have only been bad in melbourne once this year and that was against a very strong hawks outfit. I cant see where your coming from though. But you watch the dogs kick 50-60 points and the dockers get on with 100-110. Just cant see the doggies scoring they were deplorable against GC.

3. Agree
 
Wes Tiger said:
Not bad bets by any stretch of the imagination. I think your units aren't that big, be careful if they are. You cleaned up this weekend make sure you don't give a lot back. Youve won a lot of units, if the moneys pretty big to you what you've won, make sure it goes to something awesome/helpful like a holiday, bills, whatever. Just don't give it all back and turn your awesome positive experience into a negative.

Sorry for the lecture son :l
Click to expand...
Thanks thats why ive gone smaller units this week. However my unit size has increased due to increased bank starting point. Your keen on giving lectures arent you.
 
Keystone agony said:
2. I think the dogs are going to have to kick about 70 points no to get smashed. Fremantle just handed geelong a similar margin of defeat. They have only been bad in melbourne once this year and that was against a very strong hawks outfit. I cant see where your coming from though. But you watch the dogs kick 50-60 points and the dockers get on with 100-110. Just cant see the doggies scoring they were deplorable against GC.
Click to expand...

I just cant trust Freo this year (especially after my biggest unit loss for the year against the Roos). They're forward line is Pavlich or bust. Their movement of the ball is either amazingly robust, or slow and jerky. Depends what week they play. Ross Lyon described them as a "mediocre" team. This is a pretty good description of them atm.

I think Etihad is probably an advantage for them, they seem to play well there.
 
banana_bus said:
I just cant trust Freo this year (especially after my biggest unit loss for the year against the Roos). They're forward line is Pavlich or bust. Their movement of the ball is either amazingly robust, or slow and jerky. Depends what week they play. Ross Lyon described them as a "mediocre" team. This is a pretty good description of them atm.

I think Etihad is probably an advantage for them, they seem to play well there.
Click to expand...

I can understand where your coming from and especially with being burnt by them in the past - Its like dream team banana bus when a past player has burnt you and you vow to never pick them again no matter what price. But, surely your not reading into the Ross Lyon comments - hes just trying to keep under the radar slightly.

A few positives i see for that game
  • Ballantyne has returned, added them firepower, defensive pressure and been the barometer to the side since. Hes in excellent form. The dogs will have a tough time trying to contain him as they dont have any good small defender (Higgins Lol - Matera kicked 4 on him).
  • Barlow has returned and adds similar attrubutes to Ballantyne. Hes also got better everyweek and will probably have his best game this week since returning from injury.
  • Theyve been very good for the last 3 weeks now versing all good opponents (Port - away, Derby and Geelong)
  • Mayne is slowly getting back to form and has been playing his best lately.
  • I still feel a forward line of Pavlich, Z.Clarke, Ballantyne, Mayne, D.Pearce and resting midfielder can hit the scoreboard enough. Its only changed by one player since last year and Pavlich was barely going last year.
But the main reason is i can only see the buldogs scoring below 60 against Fremantle. Whether thats enough for Freo to cover that line im not sure.
 
For what its worth I think freo will smash the dogs as well. Bullies are rubbish. Theyve regressed. People like me got false hope for them after their finish to the end of last season. A well rested, reinvigorated Freo will smash them into tomorrow.
 

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